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NOAA's California Drought 2014 Service Assessment

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NOAA's California Drought 2014 Service Assessment CALIFORNIA DROUGHT 2014 SERVICE ASSESSMENT Cover and inside cover photo: Water levels remain low at San Luis Reservoir in Gustine, California, during the severe drought, August 19, 2014. Courtesy of California Department of Water Resources; Florence Low CALIFORNIA DROUGHT 2014 SERVICE ASSESSMENT U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Kathryn D. Sullivan, Ph.D. Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere and Administrator, NOAA Author List Kevin Werner, Team Lead, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service Chad McNutt, Co-lead, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Roger Pierce, Co-lead, National Weather Service Mike Anderson, California State Climatologist John Ewald, Office of the Under Secretary Karin Gleason, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service Jawed Hameedi, National Ocean Service Chris Smallcomb, National Weather Service Chris Stachelski, National Weather Service Ryan Wulff, National Marine Fisheries Service Executive Sponsor VADM Michael Devany, Deputy Under Secretary for Operations Key Support Personnel Sara Veasey, Graphics Team Lead, National Centers for Environmental Information Deborah Misch, Lead Graphic Designer, LMI Liz Love-Brotak, Graphics Support, National Centers for Environmental Information Erika Brown, Office of the Deputy Under Secretary for Operations David Diamond, Office of the Deputy Under Secretary for Operations Jessicca Griffin, Graphics Support, CICS-NC Gregory Hammer, Copy Editor, National Centers for Environmental Information Jamie Krauk, Office of the Deputy Under Secretary for Operations Anne Markel, Copy Editor, National Centers for Environmental Information Tom Maycock, Copy Editor, CICS-NC Deborah Riddle, Graphics Support, Cover Design, National Centers for Environmental Information Mara Sprain, Copy and References Editor, LAC Group Editor's Note concerning usage of the "NCDC" acronym in this report: In April 2015, NOAA’s existing three National Data Centers—the National Climatic Data Center, the National Geophysical Data Center, and the National Oceanographic Data Center, which includes the National Coastal Data Development Center—merged into the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The demand for high-value environmental data and information has dramatically increased in recent years; therefore, the centers were merged to improve NOAA's ability to meet that demand. This report was written between 2014–2015, prior to the merger. For more information, visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/national-centers-environmental-information Contents Foreword i Executive Summary ii 1 Introduction 1 The California Drought: 2 Onset and Intensification 5 3 Agriculture 15 4 Fisheries and Coastal Ecosystems 23 5 Water Resources 31 6 The Way Forward for NOAA 39 References 47 Acknowledgements 48 Appendix I: Acronyms 49 Appendix II: NOAA in California 50 Appendix III: Findings and Recommendations 51 Foreword Vice Admiral Michael Devany Greetings: I am pleased to present the report “California Drought: The feedback we received from our partners and custom- 2014 Service Assessment,” the first National Oceanic and ers in California provides us with insight into improving Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) service assess- NOAA services in the present and for the next major ment specific to drought. Since its onset in late 2011, drought, wherever it may happen. This report has recom- the California drought and its associated wildfires and mendations that touch every mission area of our agency, mudslides have taken a heavy toll on human life and the and its findings underscore NOAA’s important role in natural environment, with effects felt by economies in the providing communities with timely, reliable, and action- state and across the Nation. The principal purpose of this able information—environmental intelligence—to remain report is for NOAA to identify resource management resilient to weather and climate extremes. Report recom- decisions that were affected by the current drought in mendations advance each of NOAA’s four goals: 1) to California and to assess the use and effectiveness of our provide information and services that make communities forecasts, indices, monitoring data, and services that are more resilient; 2) to evolve NOAA’s National Weather available to decision makers and stakeholders. Service; 3) to invest in observational infrastructure; and 4) to achieve organizational excellence by providing our The report was developed with extensive consultations customers the best service possible. As such, I ask NOAA among a cross-NOAA team and personnel in State of employees everywhere to review sections of this report California agencies, academic and research communities, relevant to their expertise, and challenge teams across the private industry, and non-governmental organizations. agency to assemble in discussion about how we may bet- The report identifies vulnerabilities of key sectors of Cal- ter serve drought-stricken communities that are counting ifornia’s economy to extended dry spells and drought and on us. offers recommendations on effective use of water infor- mation, sustainability of agriculture and natural resources, I commend the team of authors (representing all parts and protection of key species and their habitat through of NOAA as well as the California State Climatologist) improved scientific understanding of water-related issues, who invested a significant portion of their time over the forecasts, environmental monitoring, technology transfer, past year in assembling this report. I also thank the Na- and communication with stakeholders. The report is for- tional Integrated Drought Information System for pro- ward-looking in that it offers opportunities for improve- viding support for the team’s operation. Finally, thanks go ment in NOAA capabilities to address drought-related to all NOAA employees and stakeholders who agreed to issues critical to our mission. participate in interviews in order to improve the import- ant work NOAA does every day in service to the State of California and the Nation. Vice Admiral Devany, Deputy Under Secretary for Operations i National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Executive Summary NOAA’s science, service, and stewardship mission who spent time in the field meeting with and soliciting uniquely positions the agency to provide environmen- feedback from over one hundred individual stakeholders tal intelligence and related decision support services to as well as California-based NOAA employees with whom those who need it most, including weather and river they directly interface. Interviewees included technical ex- forecast information for emergency responders, climate perts, municipal government leaders, academics, industry predictions and drought monitoring for agricultural and representatives, non-government interests, and members water users, and coastal science and habitat restoration of the media. planning for fisheries industries. We continually strive to improve our services—particularly as California’s his- The team synthesized input from the interviews to devel- toric drought unfolds—through advancing science and op the findings and recommendations contained in this enhancing our collaboration with public, private, and report. Top findings include: philanthropic stakeholders. • Improve seasonal prediction: Numerous stakehold- NOAA commissioned this assessment of its services ers commented on the need for a seasonal prediction for decision makers impacted by the historic California capability focused on cool season mountain precipi- drought that began in late 2011 and was exacerbated in tation, both in California and in the Colorado River 2014. This assessment focuses on (1) documenting im- basin. Although relatively small in land area, the pacts highlighted by decision makers interviewed in three mountain areas in the southwestern United States sectors: agriculture, water resources, and fisheries; and provide the vast majority of water for California. (2) assessing NOAA’s environmental intelligence suite of Even a low confidence forecast for the total precipi- services, including data, science, and forecasts provided tation in those areas could go a long way in answer- to decision makers in those sectors. The assessment was ing the most enduring question: “How much water conducted by a diverse team of experts across NOAA will we get this year?” Aqueduct near Tracy, California. Photo Credit: Karin Gleason California Drought 2014 Service Assessment ii • Build Full Natural Flow (FNF) water resources Regional Integrated Science Assessment’s Califor- modeling: In a state where almost every drop of nia-Nevada Applications Program. Continued and water is accounted for as it makes its way to the sea, increased collaboration and communication between a science-based modeling and forecast capability is the NWS field offices and these entities are needed needed to support and optimize the management to fully realize the value of NOAA’s drought ser- of the water resources. A robust FNF modeling and vices. forecast system would require collaboration among key agencies, including NOAA, the U.S. Geolog- • Promote and implement sub-regional or water- ical Survey (USGS), U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, shed-specific projects: Current NOAA projects in and the California Department of Water Resources the region are generally sector-specific, providing (CA/DWR). NOAA should take on a leadership data and information at different spatial and tem- role
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