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Colonial Vs MERLIN 23 De Marzo De 2021 Descuentos Para Todos Los Gustos

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Colonial Vs MERLIN 23 De Marzo De 2021 Descuentos Para Todos Los Gustos Colonial vs MERLIN 23 de marzo de 2021 Descuentos para todos los gustos Analista financiero Colonial: ¡Descuentos en productos de “primera”! Pablo Fernández de Mosteyrín A pesar de la salida de S.B.A (las desinversiones de Alpha V representaban Javier Díaz aprox. un 5% del total de activos de Colonial), el impacto será de aprox. un -2% MERLIN Properties sobre GRI (efecto positivo sobre la renta pasante al producirse las desinversiones Datos bursátiles sobre activos de menor calidad). Por su parte, continuamos asumiendo un Market Cap. (mln eur) 4.160 escenario conservador de cara a 2021e, en el que descontamos un descenso de Nº acciones (mln) 470 Free Float 69,8% -2,0p.p. de ocupación y -5,0% de rentas brutas (like for like), con una progresiva Beta 1,04 recuperación a partir de 2022e. Rango 52 semanas (EUR/acc) 5,54 - 9,37 Continuamos positivos en el valor en base 1) Cartera de oficinas de elevada Vol. Medio Diario 6 meses (mln acc.) 1,32 calidad, con posicionamiento prime por ubicación (77% CBD) y por activo; 2) Rating [S&P/Moody's] BBB/Baa2 Gestión activa de la cartera, con proyectos por 1.260 mln eur de inversión con una Pespectiva [S&P/Moody's] =/- rentabilidad sobre coste estimada del 6,6%); 3) estructura financiera sólida y Evolución MRL MRL vs IBEX solvente (LTV del 34,8% tras las desinversiones, con una liquidez de 2.300mln eur 1 Día -1,2% 0,3% y rating confirmado), y; 4) cotiza con un descuento cercano al -30% vs EPRA NAV 1 Mes 10,7% 6,5% 2020 (11,27 eur/acción). 2021 13,8% 8,6% 1 año 13,5% -19,3% MERLIN Properties: Diversificación y gestión para tiempos difíciles Comprar Mantener Vender Mantenemos cierta cautela en nuestras estimaciones, esperando que el grueso Consenso 67% 28% 6% Analistas del impacto de la COVID-19 sobre las tasas de ocupación y rentas se muestre durante 2S21, cuando finalice el efecto de las bonificaciones, ERTES y moratorias Fuente: Factset. hipotecarias y al alquiler durante la vigencia del estado de alarma (9 de mayo). No Inmobiliaria Accionistas: B. Santander Colonial (22,3%), M. Lao (6,3%), Vanguard (2,1%) obstante, incrementamos nuestras estimaciones de ingresos por rentas un +2,6%, Datos bursátiles Market Cap. (mln eur) 4.159 mejorando ligeramente el impacto por la probable menor ocupación en oficinas Nº acciones (mln) 508 (-3% vs -5% anterior) y por la fortaleza vista durante 2020, esperando una caída Free Float 52,4% en rentas del -3% i.a. 2021R4e y donde las menores bonificaciones (20 mln eur Beta 0,98 Rango 52 semanas (EUR/acc) 5,79 - 9,85 anunciados en 1S21) deberían apoyar el margen EBITDA, aún en niveles Vol. Medio Diario 6 meses (mln acc.) 0,71 inferiores a la media histórica en términos recurrentes (73% vs 80% histórico). Rating [S&P/Moody's] BBB+/Baa2 Aunque el recorte del dividendo no es buena noticia, sí lo es el posicionamiento del Pespectiva [S&P/Moody's] = / = management, priorizando la preservación de caja en un 2021 aún complicado, Evolución COL COL vs IBEX donde continuamos esperando cierta revisión a la baja en valoraciones. 1 Día -0,1% 1,5% Creemos que la cotización de MERLIN continuará sobresaliendo en un contexto 1 Mes 5,9% 1,7% 2021 2,0% -3,2% de recuperación cíclica donde 1) una cartera diversificada; 2) un balance 1 año 28,9% -3,9% saneado; 3) una sólida generación de caja; 4) una generosa retribución al accionista; y 5) todo ello con un descuento sobre NAV muy elevado en términos Comprar Mantener Vender históricos (45% vs 16% histórico). Consenso 44% 31% 25% Analistas Tanto MRL como COL cotizan con elevados descuentos sobre NAV (45% y Fuente: Factset. 30% respectivamente), injustificados en base al comportamiento del negocio Accionistas: QIA (20,2%), Finacces (15,8%), Inmo S.L. (5,7%) durante 2020 y nuestras estimaciones a futuro. - Pese a la resiliencia mostrada en 2020, creemos que 2021 será un año de transición en el que ambas compañías harán frente a importantes desafíos: el elevado desempleo y la quiebra de empresas presionarán tasas de ocupación y rentas. - Las valoraciones deberían corregir muy ligeramente, apoyadas por los bajos tipos de interés y la escasez de oferta de calidad en zonas prime. - Ratios de endeudamiento en niveles adecuados que se mantendrán estables o muy ligeramente al alza, sin generar dudas en sus ratings crediticios. - El fin a las moratorias, ERTES y programas de bonificación podría hacer aumentar las tasas de impago, en un contexto en el que ambas compañías registran elevadas tasas de cobro y donde solo en los activos retail de MERLIN se ha visto un repute relevante. - El carácter más cíclico de MERLIN frente de la cartera defensiva de Colonial nos mantiene marginalmente más optimistas en la primera pese a un © 2021 Renta 4 Banco S.A. menor potencial a precio objetivo: 18% vs 27% respectivamente. BC% SPGB 10Y vs COL/IBEX SPGB 10Y vs MRL/IBEX -0,50 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,50 0,00 0,50 0,00 1,00 1,00 0,00 0,00 1,50 1,50 2,00 0,00 2,00 0,00 2,50 2,50 0,00 0,00 3,00 3,00 3,50 0,00 3,50 0,00 jun.-14 jun.-15 jun.-16 jun.-17 jun.-18 jun.-19 jun.-20 jun.-14 jun.-15 jun.-16 jun.-17 jun.-18 jun.-19 jun.-20 SPGB 10Y vs MRL/COL 3,00 2,00 Históricamente, caídas en el tipo de interés del bono 2,50 1,80 español a 10 años, han beneficiado a ambas SOCIMI 2,00 1,60 en relación al Ibex, y viceversa con aumentos de tires. 1,50 1,40 Igualmente, las caídas de tipos han llevado a un mejor 1,00 1,20 comportamiento relativo de Colonial frente a MERLIN. 0,50 1,00 0,00 0,80 jun.-14 jun.-15 jun.-16 jun.-17 jun.-18 jun.-19 jun.-20 IBEX (inv.) vs COL/IBEX IBEX (inv.) vs MRL/IBEX 6.000 6.000 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 8.000 8.000 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 10.000 10.000 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 12.000 0,00 12.000 0,00 jun.-14 jun.-15 jun.-16 jun.-17 jun.-18 jun.-19 jun.-20 jun.-14 jun.-15 jun.-16 jun.-17 jun.-18 jun.-19 jun.-20 IBEX vs MRL/COL 12.000 En cuanto a su relación frente al Ibex, en subidas del 1,8 índice, en general, ambos valores suelen hacerlo peor relativamente al mercado, con MERLIN comportándose 10.000 1,5 mejor que Colonial, mientras que Colonial registra un comportamiento superior en mercados bajistas. 1,3 8.000 1,0 6.000 0,8 jun.-14 jun.-15 jun.-16 jun.-17 jun.-18 jun.-19 jun.-20 © 2021 Renta 4 Banco S.A. Análisis / Comparativa MRL vs COL Página 2 SOBREPONDERAR Colonial Precio Objetivo 10,00 EUR Precio cotización 7,90 EUR 23 de marzo de 2021 Potencial +27% ¡Descuentos en productos de “primera”! Reiteramos recomendación de SOBREPODNERAR con Precio Objetivo de Analista financiero 10,0€/acción (vs 10,2€/acción anterior) … Javier Díaz Izquierdo Colonial cerró un complicado ejercicio 2020 con una demostración de solidez y Pablo Fernández de Mosteyrín solvencia, poniendo de manifiesto el carácter defensivo de su cartera de oficinas prime (tasa de cobro del 99% en oficinas, con un impacto directo Datos bursátiles Market Cap. (mln de euros) 4.078 derivado de la pandemia de aprox. 4,5% sobre GRI gracias a su residual Nº acciones (mln) 508 exposición a retail). Free Float 31% Beta 0,84 Continuamos reiterando nuestra recomendación de SOBREPONDERAR con Rango 52 semanas (EUR/acc) 5,79 - 9,85 Vol. Medio Diario 6 meses 70,8 miles acc Precio Objetivo de 10,0 eur/acción (desde 10,2 eur/acción anterior) en base a Rating (perspectiva) BBB / Baa2 (estable) la siguiente tesis de inversión: 1) Cartera de oficinas de elevada calidad, con Evolución COL COL vs. Ibex 35 posicionamiento prime por ubicación (77% CBD) y por activo (líder en 1 Día -0,1% 1,5% oficinas de Grado A y con un 93% de la cartera con certificado Leed o Breeam), 1 Mes 5,9% 1,7% que le permite liderar las rentas en la banda alta con elevados índices de 2021 2,0% -3,2% 1 año 28,9% -3,9% fidelidad (el 78% de sus inquilinos permanece en activos de la compañía entre 5 y 10 años) y ocupación (95% a cierre de 2020); 2) Gestión activa de la cartera (+17% release spread en 2020 a pesar de la pandemia, rotando activos maduros y en ubicaciones secundarias, y con una cartera de proyectos de 1.260 mln eur de inversión con una rentabilidad sobre coste estimada del 6,6%); 3) estructura financiera sólida y solvente (LTV del 34,8% tras las desinversiones, con una liquidez de 2.300mln eur y rating confirmado), y; 5) cotiza con un descuento cercano al 30% vs EPRA NAV 2020 (11,27 eur/acción). …tras actualizar estimaciones con un 2021e de transición y la vista puesta en 2022e. Tras la publicación de resultados del ejercicio 2020 así como del programa de desinversiones de la compañía, hemos actualizado nuestras estimaciones (ver Comprar Mantener Vender tabla cambio de estimaciones). A pesar de la salida de S.B.A (las desinversiones Consenso de Alpha V representaban aprox.
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