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Acatech STUDY March 2015 Editors: Dr > Living in a networked world Integrated research agenda Cyber-Physical Systems (agendaCPS) Eva Geisberger/Manfred Broy (Eds.) acatech STUDY March 2015 Editors: Dr. Eva Geisberger Prof. Dr. Dr. h. c. Manfred Broy Technische Universität München, Technische Universität München, Institut für Informatik Institut für Informatik Boltzmannstraße 3 Boltzmannstraße 3 85748 Garching 85748 Garching E-Mail: [email protected] E-Mail: [email protected] Series published by: acatech – NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, 2015 Munich Office Berlin Office Brussels Office Residenz München Unter den Linden 14 Rue d’Egmont/Egmontstraat 13 Hofgartenstraße 2 10117 Berlin 1000 Brüssel 80539 München Belgien T +49 (0) 89 / 5 20 30 90 T +49 (0) 30 / 2 06 30 96 0 T +32 (0) 2 / 2 13 81 80 F +49 (0) 89 / 5 20 30 99 F +49 (0) 30 / 2 06 30 96 11 F +32 (0) 2 / 2 13 81 89 E-Mail: [email protected] Internet: www.acatech.de Recommended citation: Eva Geisberger/Manfred Broy (Eds.): Living in a networked world. Integrated research agenda Cyber- Physical Systems (agendaCPS) (acatech STUDY), Munich: Herbert Utz Verlag 2015. Coordination: Ariane Hellinger Edited by: Ariane Hellinger, Heinrich Seeger, Linda Treugut Translation: Joaquin Blasco Layout-Concept: acatech Conversion and typesetting: Fraunhofer Institute for Intelligent Analysis and Information Systems IAIS, Sankt Augustin > THE acatech STUDY SERIES This series comprises reports presenting the results of projects carried out by the National Academy of Science and Engineering. The studies are intended to provide informed assessments and future-oriented advice for policy-makers and society. Contents > CONTENTS FOREWORD 9 PREFACE 11 SUMMARY 13 PROJECT 17 1 INTRODUCTION 21 1.1 Goals and structure of the report 21 1.1.1 Structure of the report 22 1.2 Cyber-Physical Systems – trends and characterisation 23 1.2.1 The potential of converging CPS trends 23 1.2.2 Initial characterisation of Cyber-Physical Systems 25 1.3 The importance and potential of Cyber-Physical Systems for german economy 26 1.4 Methodology and process 29 1.4.1 Scenario analysis and structured identification of CPS capabilities and core technologies 29 1.4.2 Validation of the results 31 2 CYBER-PHYSICAL SYSTEMS: VISIONS, CHARACTERISTICS AND NEW CAPABILITIES 33 2.1 Interconnected application areas 33 2.2 Smart mobility – assistance, comfort and safety through cooperating systems 35 2.2.1 CPS as comprehensive planning and mobility assistants 36 2.2.2 Road safety through cooperating systems 38 2.2.3 Efficent and safe travel and coordination in confined spaces through autonomous systems 39 2.2.4 CPS and potential benefits for the mobile society 43 2.3 Personalised and safe integrated healthcare 44 2.3.1 CPS in telemedicine, remote diagnosis and home care support 45 2.3.2 Follow-up care and support in the patient’s familiar surroundings 47 2.3.3 CPS-based support for automatic emergency detection and primary care 48 2.3.4 CPS excess value and potential benefits 50 2.4 Smart grids 51 2.4.1 Micro grids 52 2.4.2 Identified excess value and services 55 2.5 Smart factories – networked, adaptive and real-time capable production 56 2.5.1 Order processing – scenario and subscenarios 57 2.5.2 Product and production formation process scenario 60 2.5.3 CPS excess value and potential 61 agendaCPS 2.6 Characteristic capabilities and potential of Cyber-Physical Systems 63 2.6.1 Characteristics and novel capabilities of Cyber-Physical Systems 63 2.6.2 Benefits and excess value for society and economy 70 3 CPS THEMATIC AREAS 73 3.1 Smart infrastructure and the required domain models 73 3.1.1 Infrastructure for interoperable and dependable CPS services 74 3.1.2 Reference architectures and the buildup of domain knowledge 76 3.1.3 Challenges 77 3.2 Networked acting in uncertain physical and social environments 77 3.2.1 The shell model of socio-technical CPS applications 79 3.2.2 Increasingly uncertain behaviour in the networked world 82 3.2.3 Distributed acting in open physical and social environments 84 3.2.4 Dependable acting Cyber-Physical Systems – new capabilities and challenges 89 3.3 Human-machine interaction and shared control 90 3.3.1 Coordinated situation awareness and context integration to enable intuitive use 91 3.3.2 The challenge of shared control 92 3.4 Essential acceptance factors: usefulness, transparency, safety, security and buildup of confidence 95 3.4.1 Integrated services with controllable complexity 96 3.4.2 Dependability and transparency – prerequisite for creative power and confidence 97 3.5 Summary of CPS capabilities and the essential challenges associated with them 98 3.6 Revolutionary and evolutionary systems and the associated engineering challenges 102 3.6.1 Evolution and engineering 102 3.6.2 Engineering technology and research areas 103 4 POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES 107 4.1 Technology impact, social areas of conflict and issues for interdisciplinary research 107 4.1.1 Safety and security issues for smart, networked and interactive technology 108 4.1.2 Individual technology acceptance and design issues 110 4.1.3 Social challenges of globally networked, interactive Cyber-Physical Systems 112 4.1.4 Governance – social control of open socio-technical systems 114 4.1.5 Conclusions for reflexive and participatory technology design and the analysis of its impact 116 4.2 Privacy and data protection 119 4.2.1 Legal basis for data protection 121 4.2.2 A broader understanding of privacy protection 122 4.2.3 Protection goals for a risk-based approach to design 123 4.2.4 Conclusions 125 6 Contents 5 TECHNOLOGICAL AND ENGINEERING CHALLENGES 127 5.1 Technologies required to realise the specific capabilities of Cyber-Physical Systems 127 5.1.1 F1: physical awareness 128 5.1.2 F2: fully or semi-autonomously planned and forsighted acting 130 5.1.3 F3: cooperation and negotiation 132 5.1.4 F4: human-machine interaction 133 5.1.5 F5: learning 135 5.1.6 F6: evolution: self organisation and adaptation strategies 136 5.1.7 F7: basic technologies 137 5.1.8 Summary of the technologies required for Cyber-Physical Systems 140 5.2 Technologies for delivering non-functional requirements – safety, security and privacy protection 142 5.2.1 Dependability 142 5.2.2 Safety and functional safety 143 5.2.3 Security: system features and engineering questions 145 5.2.4 Privacy 148 5.3 Engineering concepts and competencies 151 5.3.1 User-centred, participatory and virtual methods for requirements analysis, design and evaluation 151 5.3.2 The fundamental importance of requirements engineering 153 5.3.3 Comprehensive and integrated human, system and architecture models 155 5.3.4 Domain engineering and system management 162 5.3.5 Quality engineering 164 5.4 Summary of technological challenges 166 6 BUSINESS MODELS AND ECOSYSTEMS 171 6.1 Starting basis and challenges of change 171 6.1.1 Definition of terms 173 6.2 The impact and opportunities of cyber-physical systems with regard to business models and ecosystems 175 6.2.1 Value proposition 175 6.2.2 Value creation architecture 177 6.2.3 Revenue model 181 6.3 The disruptive innovative potential of Cyber-Physical Systems 182 6.4 Summary 184 7 POSITION DECISION, ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS 187 7.1 the necessary integrated innovation efforts 187 7.2 SWOT analysis 190 7.2.1 Strengths and weaknesses of germany as a centre for innovation in the field of Cyber-Physical Systems 191 7.2.2 Opportunities and threats of germany as a centre for innovation in the field of Cyber-Physical Systems 194 7.2.3 Strategic action areas 197 7 agendaCPS APPENDIX A: CURRENT STATUS OF RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY 203 A.1 regional programmes and priorities 203 A.1.1 Germany 203 A.1.2 Europe 206 A.1.3 USA 209 A.1.4 BRICS countries and Asia 210 A.2 Current status of research and technology 213 APPENDIX B: INTEROPERABILITY AND QUALITY OF SERVICE PLATFORM SERVICES AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE VEHICLE DOMAIN 219 B.1 introduction 219 B.2 Challenges 220 B.3 Description of the services 221 B.3.1 Component management 221 B.3.2 Physical environment and context awareness 223 B.3.3 Dynamic management 224 B.3.4 Service interaction 226 B.3.5 Quality of service 227 B.3.6 Safety and security 228 B.3.7 Intermodality and interoperability 231 APPENDIX C: RESULTS OF SURVEY OF SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES 233 GLOSSARY 237 REFERENCES 255 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS 289 ABOUT THE AUTHORS 291 8 Foreword FOREWORD BY WOLFGANG MAYRHUBER, FORMER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER OF DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AG AND ACATECH EXECUTIVE BOARD MEMBER We live in the age of networks. For requirements and by the potential it offers to increase several centuries now, land, sea and flexibility and productivity. It is therefore in the interests of air transport networks have helped to businesses to incorporate this trend into their strategies. connect people and enable trade all around the world. Today, the dynam- The success of CPS technology derives from the enormous ic development of information and direct practical benefits that it provides by offering people communication technology has led more comfort, control over their own time, ubiquity, reliabil- to the emergence of an IT communi- ity, information and efficiency. There is thus huge potential cations network that crisscrosses the globe like a “nervous to use Cyber-Physical Systems as a basis for developing new system”. The future now lies in the smart combination of business models. For example, airlines can use CPS technol- the “real” and “virtual” worlds, a phenomenon known as ogy to improve the service they provide to their passengers Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS).
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