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This dissertation has been 61-4898 microfilmed exactly as received BRAZELTON, William Robert, 1933- A CRITICAL COMPARISON OF THE GROWTH THEORIES OF ALVIN H. HANSEN AND WILLIAM J. FELLNER. The University of Oklahoma, Ph.D., 1961 Economics, theory University Microfilms. Inc., Ann Arbor, Michigcin THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA. GRADUATE COLLEGE A CRITICAL COMPARISON OF THE GROWTH THEORIES OF ALVIN H. HANSEN AND WILLIAM J. FELLNER A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY BY WILLIAM ROBERT BRAZELTON Norman, Oklahoma 1961 A CRITICAL COMPARISON OF THE GROWTH THEORIES OF ALVIN H. HANSEN AND WILLIAM J. FELLNER APPROVED B m Zl. ISSERTATION COMMITTEE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author would like to express his gratitude to those members of the Department of Economics at the University of Oklahoma who have aided so much in the completion of this dissertation. Dr. Alex Kondonassis, Dr. James Reese, and Dr. William Nelson Peach must be mentioned in relation to their work with .the candidate at various times and during various stages of the dissertation. Also, a debt of gratitude is owed to Dr. Virgil Wilhite for presenting a basic framework of analysis to help the present candidate to form a more meaningful framework of economic analysis. Also, the author would like to thank Dr. Paul Drinker for the time and trouble of reading and analyzing the dissertation as it neared the final stages of completion. Special thanks must go to Dr. James Murphy and to Dr. Louis A. Dow. It was Dr. Murphy who was constantly willing to read and analyze and, thus, to strengthen. It was Dr. Dow, however, who gave purpose, meaning, strength and direction to the dissertation and to the candidate himself. iil TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OP T A B L E S ...................................... v LIST OP ILLUSTRATIONS.............................. vl Chapter I. INTRODUCTION ................................ 1 II; THE KEYNES-HANSEN STAGNATION THESIS .......... 21 III. THE CRITICISMS AND THEIR EVALUATION: POPULATION, THE FRONTIER, TECHNOLOGY, AND MARKET S T R U C T U R E .......... 68 IV. THE CRITICISMS AND THEIR EVALUATION: SAVINGS, CAPITAL SAVINGS, AND DEPRECIATION RESERVES................ 100 V. FELLNER AND DYNAMIC GROWTH INTRODUCTION .... 128 VI. CRITICISM OF THE FELLNER GROWTH THESIS .... 1?1 VII. THE BLOCS TO TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS ...... 195 VIII. C O N C L U S I O N ............................ 218 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................ 222 iv LIST OP TABLES Table Page 1. Annual Deviations of Index of Output per Man-Hour, Manufacturing ...................... I83 2. Annual Deviations of Index of Output Per Unit of Labor and Capital, Private Economy . l8^ LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Page Figure 1. Relationship between Output and Its Constituents In a Condition of Uninterrupted G r o w t h.................. 142 Chart I. Outputs Per Man-Hour and Per Unit of Labor and Capital .................................. 162 II. Annual Deviations of Index of Output Per Man-Hour, Manufacturing ...................... l80 III. Annual Deviations of Index of Output Per Unit of Labor and Capital, Private Economy . l80 vl A CRITICAL COMPARISON OF THE GROWTH THEORIES OF ALVIN H. HANSEN AND WILLIAM J. FELLNER CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Historical Perspective The concept of stagnation Is not new to the science^ of economics. There have been times In history when economics was referred to aa the "dismal science." The reasons for such dismalness lie In the long history of economic privation or, more recently. In long-run predictions concerning secular economic stagnation. The general area of study of the present work Is the problem of secular stagnation. This chapter deals with the problem from the general, historical perspective, and emphasizes the fact that the problem Is not a new one In ^The use of the term "science of economics" may raise some skeptics to doubt. I use the term In the broad sense to Include any field that uses the empirical method of assumptions, hypotheses, theory and the testing of predictions as to actual fact. The fact that It might seem that the empirical method Is not .used by economists Is not because It _ Is not used but, rather, because the field Is more complex and, thus, the results less certain. Also, some economists seem to adopt doctrinal fanaticism and, thus, fight hard the accumulation of empirical evidence against them. 2 * economic thought. After this general introduction, the • » Keynes-Hansen Stagnation Thesis will he dealt with in some detail. Next, the growth thesis of William Pellner will be studied. Lastly, the thesis will deal with the process of technology and technological innovation and the possible institutional hindrances that may develop in an advanced industrial economy to block the introduction of technology. The purposes of the thesis is to show that the development of these institutional blocs to the adoption of technology may contribute to secular stagnation. A glance at economic history shows the prevalence of some concern over stagnation. Prom the time of the prophets of the Old Testament to the more recent economics of John Maynard Keynes,^^^e fear of stagnation can be seen either on or below the surface of doctrine. The ancients had a doctrine based on complacency concerning the socio-economic order. The Medieval Church had its own theory, while the theories of Adam Smith and Thomas Maithus also stress the dismal aspects of economic existence. The concern is still with us. In modern times, William Pellner, for example, argues that Keynesian economic thinking can be divided into three separate 2 parts: stagnation, cyclical and fundamental. Alvin Hansen has further developed the stagnation aspects of the economics of Lord Keynes and, thus, adds to the dismality. Some ^William Pellner, "What is Surviving?" American Economic Review, Vol. 47 (May, 1957), p. 67 . j leading economists still fear the eventuality of stagnation in the capitalist system and there is.no dearth of literature written on the subject.^ The present chapter will deal briefly with the concept of stagnation from an historical perspective. The azicient prophets of the Old Testament often preached about the need for honesty in business dealings and the immorality of usury. Fundamental to their sermonizing was the need for charity and the rewards that a merciful God would give to the charitable person. Such an emphasis upon fair dealings in business and charity towards the lower/and working classes probably was correlated with the degree of the poverty and maltreatment present during that time. There was, thus, a feeling of complacency for the conditions of the vast numbers of the populace. This is an understandable doctrine for ancient times because the prophets, were primarily ecclesiastical and believed that the obedience to God's commands and the leading of the "good life" were more important than economic growth and welfare. Also, it is conceivable that the prophets saw very little hope for economic betterment due to the dearth of resources and the immobility inherent in the socio­ economic order. Thus, continued poverty seemed inevitable, ^The term "stagnation" will be used throughout this work. At times, for variety, the terms "secular stagnation" or "economic maturity" or the term "mature economy" may be used. Economists that fall into the general stagnation school are, in one way or another, Alvin Hansen, Benjamin Higgins, Paul Sweezy, John Kenneth Galbraith and Paul Sarauelson. 4 and perhaps, part of the design of providence. The next major group of economic doctrines can be attributed to the Medieval Period of Roman Catholic dominance over European economic and social affairs.^ Like the ancients, the Medieval Churchmen of Europe believed in the importance of the "good life." It was unimportant to them that man was suffering economic hardship in this world. The task of the Church was to prepare man for the eternal life after the soul left the prison of the temporary body. Thus, obedience to . - God's commands was much more important than economic progress. Charity and complacency were also stressed. The age old concepts of usury, fair wages, charity and complacency were still in vogue and much discussed. Certainly man— in this world at least— faced a long and probably constant annoyance with the economic hardships of that day.^ In the transition from the Medieval period into the industrial period, the concept of the maintenance of socio­ economic status quo and the religious emphasis upon the after­ life were stressed less while economic development was more emphasized. Moreover, constant, current stagnation was ^John Fred Bell, History of Economic Thought (New York; Ronald Press, 1953) and Eric Roll, History of Economic Thought (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1957) may be referred to by the reader for a more complete analysis of this period. ^Again the works of John Fred Bell and Eric Roll may be referred to for a more complete, but general summary of this period. 5 minimized and was replaced by anticipated stagnation. The coming of the industrial revolution ended the stagnation of past generations. The same revolution, however, brought about the development of the theoretical concept of the law of diminishing returns. This is a concept leading to the possibility of stagnation, which can generally be defined as follows: At some level of economic development the various factors which make for investment will tend to become less favorable in bringing forth an adequate amount of investment to maintain the attained level of income and employment. In this concept, profits will decrease to a point where the needed investment stimulus is no longer sufficient to éustain econbmic growth and progress. Such a concept prevails in various forms and in various complexities throughout the works of many economists from Adam Smith to Alvin Hansen. In 1776, Adam Smith published his now famous treatise on economic affairs.^ There seems to be three rather gloomy interrelated concepts in the theories of Smith, David Ricardo and their followers.

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