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Displacement Due to Violence in Columbia: Determinants and Consequences at the Household Level

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Displacement Due to Violence in Columbia: Determinants and Consequences at the Household Level A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Kirchhoff, Stefanie; Ibañez, Ana Maria Working Paper Displacement due to violence in Columbia: Determinants and consequences at the household level ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy, No. 41 Provided in Cooperation with: Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung / Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn Suggested Citation: Kirchhoff, Stefanie; Ibañez, Ana Maria (2001) : Displacement due to violence in Columbia: Determinants and consequences at the household level, ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy, No. 41, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF), Bonn This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/84710 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu ZEF Bonn Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung Center for Development Research Universität Bonn Stefanie Kirchhoff Ana Maria Ibañez Displacement due to Violence in Colombia: Determinants and Number Consequences 41 at the Household Level ZEF – Discussion Papers on Development Policy Bonn, October 2001 The CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH (ZEF) was established in 1997 as an international, interdisciplinary research institute at the University of Bonn. Research and teaching at ZEF aims to contribute to resolving political, economic and ecological development problems. ZEF closely cooperates with national and international partners in research and development organizations. For information, see: http://www.zef.de. ZEF – DISCUSSION PAPERS ON DEVELOPMENT POLICY are intended to stimulate discussion among researchers, practitioners and policy makers on current and emerging development issues. Each paper has been exposed to an internal discussion within the Center for Development Research (ZEF) and an external review. The papers mostly reflect work in progress. Stefanie Kirchhoff, Ana Maria Ibañez: Displacement due to Violence in Colombia: Determinants and Consequences at the Household Level, ZEF – Discussion Papers On Development Policy No. 41, Center for Development Research, Bonn, October 2001, pp. 45. ISSN: 1436-9931 Published by: Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung (ZEF) Center for Development Research Walter-Flex-Strasse 3 D – 53113 Bonn Germany Phone: +49-228-73-1861 Fax: +49-228-73-1869 E-Mail: [email protected] http://www.zef.de The authors: Dr. Stefanie Kirchhoff is a research fellow at ZEF. Dr. Ana Maria Ibañez is a consultant to the World Bank. This study was initiated while the authors were employed at the Faculty of Economics of the University of the Andes in Bogotá, Colombia. Displacement due to Violence in Colombia Contents Acknowledgements Abstract 1 Kurzfassung 2 1 Introduction 3 2 Migration Theories and a Framework for Analysis of the Displacement Decision 6 2.1 A Brief Review of Some Major Results from Migration Theories 7 2.2 A Framework for Analysis of the Displacement Decision and Associated 10 Hypotheses 2.2.1 Conceptual framework for the analysis of the displacement decision 10 2.2.2 The endogeneity of direct threats 11 2.2.3 Specific proxies and hypotheses 12 2.3 A Method for Estimating the Welfare Losses From Displacement 17 3 Data and Descriptive Analysis 19 3.1 The Data 19 3.2 Descriptive Analysis 19 3.2.1 Collective versus individual displacement 20 3.2.2 Factors of violence and perceived causes of displacement 21 3.2.3 Impacts of displacement 22 3.2.4 Expected, received and required support 30 3.2.5 Conditions for Resettlement or Return 33 4 Econometric Analysis 34 4.1 Determinants of direct threats 36 4.2 Determinants of the displacement decision 37 5 Conclusions and Policy Implications 41 References 44 ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy 41 List of Maps Map 1 The Study Region 20 List of Tables Table 1 Violent events suffered by household members or other persons 21 Table 2 Type of Support by Organization 32 Table 3 “What do you and your families need most at the moment?” 33 Table 4 List of Variables Used in the Econometric Analysis 34 - 35 Table 5 Descriptive statistics for the variables used in the econometric analysis 35 Table 6 Logit regression results for the probability of being directly threatened 36 Table 7 Logit regression results for the probability of displacement 38 Displacement due to Violence in Colombia List of Figures Figure 1 Age of Other Household Members Before Displacement 23 Figure 2 Age of Other Household Members After Displacement 23 Figure 3 Number of Years Lived in the Region Before Displacement 24 Figure 4 Type of Housing of the Displaced 25 Figure 5.a Access to Public Services Before and After Displacement 26 Figure 5.b Access to Public Services Before and After Displacement 26 Figure 5.c Access to Public Services Before and After Displacement 26 Figure 6.a Access to Health Services Before and After Displacement 27 Figure 6.b Access to Health Services Before and After Displacement 27 Figure 6.c Access to Health Services Before and After Displacement 27 Figure 7.a Access to School Before and After Displacement 28 Figure 7.b Access to School Before and After Displacement 28 Figure 7.c Access to School Before and After Displacement 28 Figure 8 Perceived Possibilities of Finding Employment at the Place of 29 Reception before Displacement Figure 9 Expected Earnings at the Place of Reception 29 Figure 10 Occupation of the Household Head: Current, Before and 30 3 Months After Displacement Figure 11 Type of Support Received During and After Displacement 31 ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy 41 Acknowledgements The research project was funded by Colciencias and the National Department of Planning, Colombia. We would like to express our immense gratitude to our colleagues in the project, Alberto Galán and Jaime Andrés Erazo in Colombia. We also thank Prof. Oded Stark for a very interesting discussion on the issue of displacement which has contributed to enrich our theoretical considerations and ideas for future research. Last, but not least, we thank Weselina Angelow, Max Holtmann, Kerstin Becker and Quixia Zhu for excellent research assistance as well as Alexandra zum Felde and Christina Endemann for their valuable help with the final editing. Displacement due to Violence in Colombia Abstract The armed conflict over economic and political power in Colombia has led to the massive displacement of people living in the areas of violence. The design of appropriate policies of prevention, assistance, and resettlement requires improved information on the determinants and effects of displacement. This paper contributes to providing such information by using household survey data collected at expulsory and receptor locations. First, we develop a conceptual framework for analyzing the factors which influence a household’s decision to leave its area of origin for an uncertain future or to stay and risk being the victim of violence. Using econometric analysis, the framework is then used to examine the significance and relative importance of the hypothesized factors in the study region. Second, the impacts of displacement on the affected households are examined through a descriptive analysis of the survey data, and a method for estimating the welfare losses of the displaced is presented. The results confirm the significant role of violence and perceptions of insecurity in motivating displacement. The analysis indicates that land owners, members of local organizations, and younger household heads face the highest risk of becoming the direct target of threats which appear to be the most important trigger of displacement. However, security considerations do not appear to be the only factors underlying the displacement decision. People decide to stay in their areas of origin despite being affected by violence. A significant percentage of the displaced appear to have reflected on their options and on the expected impacts of displacement. Considerations regarding the cost of leaving behind important assets and potential improvements in living conditions after displacement appear to impact the decision. The results also point to the important role of information in displacement decisions. The descriptive analysis highlights the impacts of displacement on the affected households. The wide majority of the displaced had lived in the areas of origin for a very substantial amount of time. For many, displacement implies the loss of agricultural land and the associated way of life. At the receptor locations, households - particularly those
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