Impacts of Low Aggregate Indcs Ambition: Research Commissioned

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...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... .............................................................. ........ ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ........... .......................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ......................................November 2015 ................................ ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ........................................mpacts of............................. low ......................................................................I ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ......................................................................aggregate INDCs ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... .....................................................................ambition ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... .................................................Research commissioned by OXFAM.................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... .......................................................... ............ .....................................................................Technical summary ...................................................................... .............................Florent Baarsch ........................................ ......................................................................Tabea Lissner, ..................................................................... ......................................................................Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, .....................................................................Jessie Granadillos, ...................................................................... .....................................................................Kelly de Bruin, ...................................................................... .........Mahé Perrette............................................................, ......................................................................Michiel Schaeffer, ..................................................................... ......................................................................Bill Hare ..................................................................... ...................................................................... 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..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................Climate Analytics gGmbH ................................................... ......................................................................Supporting science based policy to prevent dangerous Friedrichstraße 231 / Haus B T / +49 (0)30 259 22 95 20 .....................................................................climate change enabling sustainable development 10969 Berlin / Germany W / www.climateanalytics.org ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... ...................................................................... ..................................................................... 1 Climate Action Tracker Global Emission Pathways ................................................................................. 3 2 Sea-Level Rise ......................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Method and Data ............................................................................................................................. 5 3 Agricultural yield analysis ....................................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Assessment of agricultural production losses ................................................................................. 7 4 Adaptation costs and macroeconomic damage ..................................................................................... 9 4.1 Summary of results .......................................................................................................................... 9 4.2 Does AD-RICE over or under-estimate macroeconomic damage and adaptation costs .................. 9 4.2.1 Scenarios used .......................................................................................................................... 9 4.2.2 Adaptation costs ..................................................................................................................... 10 4.2.3 Macroeconomic damage ........................................................................................................ 10 4.3 Specifications and description of the AD-RICE model ................................................................... 11 5 References ...........................................................................................................................................

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