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Corbett Leads Unknowns in Pennsylvania Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Oppose Rendell Sales Tax

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Corbett Leads Unknowns in Pennsylvania Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Oppose Rendell Sales Tax Peter Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute FOR RELEASE: MARCH 3, 2010 CORBETT LEADS UNKNOWNS IN PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR’S RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; VOTERS OPPOSE RENDELL SALES TAX PLAN Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett has a 43 – 5 percent lead over State Representative Sam Rohrer for the Republican nomination for governor and holds double-digit leads over the top Democratic candidates, all of whom who are virtual unknowns even to their own party members, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. “Don’t know” leads the field for the Democratic nomination with 59 percent, followed by Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato with 16 percent, State Auditor General Jack Wagner with 11 percent, 2004 U.S. Senate nominee Joel Hoeffel at 10 percent and State. Sen. Tony Williams at 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Gov. Ed Rendell remains unpopular with voters as he completes his final year in office, as voters disapprove 49 – 43 percent of the job he is doing, unchanged from December 17. Voters say 49 – 6 percent Gov. Rendell’s plan to increase state spending next year by 4.1 percent was too much rather than too little. Another 35 percent say it’s about right. By a 53 – 40 percent margin, voters oppose the Governor’s plan to raise more money by cutting the state sales tax but expanding items covered by it. “The Democratic candidates for Governor are almost invisible men as far as the voters are concerned. One of them will win the nomination, but at this point they are so closely bunched together and such mystery men to the vast majority of primary voters that any result is possible, given that the primary is little more than 10 weeks away,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “In a four-candidate race, the possibilities are endless.” -more- Quinnipiac University Poll/March 3, 2010 – page 2 Onorato and Wagner are the best known of the four Democrats and 64 or 65 percent of Democrats don’t know enough about them to have an opinion. Hoeffel is unfamiliar to 73 percent and Williams to 93 percent. Corbett isn’t a household name by any stretch, but at least half of voters statewide have an opinion about him, and by 43 – 7 percent it is favorable, which explains his lead in the polls. For Rohrer, 91 percent don’t know enough about him. If the election were held today Corbett would defeat Onorato 42 – 32 percent, Wagner 42 – 30 percent and Hoeffel 41 – 30 percent. Gov. Ed Rendell, who is barred from seeking a third term by law, is well known to Pennsylvania voters and not all that favorably, as his 49 – 43 percent disapproval continues an eight-month negative streak. Rendell’s rating looks pretty good compared to the State Legislature, which gets a 59 – 29 percent disapproval rating from the voters, better than 64 – 25 percent December 17. “Rendell’s budget plan strikes Pennsylvania voters as too generous in tough times. Almost half, 49 percent, say his spending plans are too much, while only 6 percent think the state should be spending more money. A third, 35 percent, think it’s about right.” Democrats back Rendell’s proposed changes to the sales tax with a bare 51 – 41 percent majority, while independent voters oppose it 53 – 40 percent and Republicans overwhelmingly oppose it 66 – 28 percent. Another Rendell tax plan to tax energy companies drilling in the state’s Marcellus Shale on the value of the natural gas they produced gets plurality support, 49 – 41 percent. “Such narrow support for a tax on energy companies – a traditional political whipping boy – is an indication of the general anti-tax mood of the electorate,” said Brown. From February 22 – 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,452 Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 649 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, and 605 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml , call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter . 2 1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams and Joe Hoeffel, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Onorato 16% 16% 16% Wagner 11 13 9 Williams 2 1 2 Hoeffel 10 13 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 DK/NA 59 55 61 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams, and Joe Hoeffel, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS............... Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 Onorato 16 14 14 16 Wagner 11 7 11 16 Williams 2 na na na Hoeffel 10 8 12 na Knox na 5 5 13 Doherty na 6 8 na SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 1 DK/NA 59 59 46 54 3. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tom Corbett and Sam Rohrer, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Corbett 43% 47% 39% Rohrer 5 6 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 DK/NA 49 44 55 TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tom Corbett and Sam Rohrer, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPS............... Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 Corbett 43 38 42 31 Rohrer 5 na na na Gerlach na 12 13 13 Meehan na na na 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 - DK/NA 49 47 43 48 3 4. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Onorato 32% 3% 64% 23% 28% 36% 32% Corbett 42 77 15 40 50 34 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 24 19 19 33 20 28 25 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Onorato 57% 56% 21% 23% 25% 40% 21% Corbett 31 16 46 45 53 42 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 DK/NA 10 26 31 29 18 17 27 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 2010 2009 2009 Onorato 32 30 28 Corbett 42 45 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 24 22 24 5. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Wagner 30% 4% 63% 19% 30% 30% 36% Corbett 42 76 14 40 48 36 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 26 19 22 37 20 32 25 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Wagner 39% 51% 25% 26% 30% 30% 23% Corbett 35 17 42 45 50 46 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 - - 1 1 DK/NA 22 29 32 27 19 22 28 4 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 2010 2009 2009 Wagner 30 33 29 Corbett 42 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 26 23 25 6. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Joe Hoeffel the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Hoeffel 30% 3% 61% 20% 27% 32% 34% Corbett 41 75 15 39 49 34 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 27 21 23 37 21 33 25 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Hoeffel 31% 57% 22% 37% 21% 19% 22% Corbett 40 10 43 40 52 49 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 DK/NA 28 31 33 20 23 30 28 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Joe Hoeffel the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Mar 3 Dec 17 2010 2009 Hoeffel 30 30 Corbett 41 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 27 23 12.
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