Interview: Joshua Angrist
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How Large Are the Social Returns to Education? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES HOW LARGE ARE THE SOCIAL RETURNS TO EDUCATION? EVIDENCE FROM COMPULSORY SCHOOLING LAWS Daron Acemoglu Joshua Angrist Working Paper 7444 http://www.nber.org/papers/w7444 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 December 1999 We thank Chris Mazingo and Xuanhui Ng for excellent research assistance. Paul Beaudry, Bill Evans, Bob Hall, Larry Katz, Enrico Moretti, Jim Poterba, Robert Shimer, and seminar participants at the 1999 NBER Summer Institute, University College London, the University of Maryland, and the University of Toronto provided helpful comments. Special thanks to Stefanie Schmidt for helpful advice on compulsory schooling data. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. © 1999 by Daron Acemoglu and Joshua Angrist. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. How Large are the Social Returns to Education? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws Daron Acemoglu and Joshua Angrist NBER Working Paper No. 7444 December 1999 JEL No. I20, J31, J24, D62, O15 ABSTRACT Average schooling in US states is highly correlated with state wage levels, even after controlling for the direct effect of schooling on individual wages. We use an instrumental variables strategy to determine whether this relationship is driven by social returns to education. The instrumentals for average schooling are derived from information on the child labor laws and compulsory attendance laws that affected men in our Census samples, while quarter of birth is used as an instrument for individual schooling. -
Fall 2021 Conference the Brookings Institution Thursday, September 9, 2021 All Times Are in Eastern Time
Fall 2021 Conference The Brookings Institution Thursday, September 9, 2021 All times are in Eastern Time. Registration page: https://www.brookings.edu/events/bpea-fall-2021-conference/ 10:00 AM The Employment Impact of a Green Fiscal Push: Evidence from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Authors: Ziqiao Chen (Syracuse University); Giovanni Marin (University of Urbino Carlo Bo); David Popp (Syracuse University); and Francesco Vona (OFCE Sciences-Po) Discussants: Gabriel Chodorow-Reich (Harvard University); and Valerie Ramey (University of California, San Diego) 11:00 AM Break 11:05 AM The Economic Gains from Equity Authors: Shelby Buckman (Stanford University), Laura Choi (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), Mary Daly (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), and Lily Seitelman (Boston University) Discussants: Nicole Fortin (University of British Columbia); and Erik Hurst (Chicago Booth School of Business) 12:05 PM Break 12:10 PM Government and Private Household Debt Relief During COVID-19 Authors: Susan Cherry (Stanford Graduate School of Business); Erica Jiang (University of Southern California); Gregor Matvos (Northwestern University); Tomasz Piskorski (Columbia Business School); and Amit Seru (Stanford Graduate School of Business) Discussants: Pascal Noel (Chicago Booth School of Business); and Susan Wachter (University of Pennsylvania Wharton School) 1:10 PM Lunch Break 2:00 PM The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates Authors: David Anthoff -
Instrumental Variables Methods in Experimental Criminological Research: What, Why and How
Journal of Experimental Criminology (2006) 2: 23–44 # Springer 2006 DOI: 10.1007/s11292-005-5126-x Research article Instrumental variables methods in experimental criminological research: what, why and how JOSHUA D. ANGRIST* MIT Department of Economics, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA 02142-1347, USA NBER, USA: E-mail: [email protected] Abstract. Quantitative criminology focuses on straightforward causal questions that are ideally addressed with randomized experiments. In practice, however, traditional randomized trials are difficult to implement in the untidy world of criminal justice. Even when randomized trials are implemented, not everyone is treated as intended and some control subjects may obtain experimental services. Treatments may also be more complicated than a simple yes/no coding can capture. This paper argues that the instrumental variables methods (IV) used by economists to solve omitted variables bias problems in observational studies also solve the major statistical problems that arise in imperfect criminological experiments. In general, IV methods estimate causal effects on subjects who comply with a randomly assigned treatment. The use of IV in criminology is illustrated through a re-analysis of the Minneapolis domestic violence experiment. The results point to substantial selection bias in estimates using treatment delivered as the causal variable, and IV estimation generates deterrent effects of arrest that are about one-third larger than the corresponding intention-to-treat effects. Key words: causal effects, domestic violence, local average treatment effects, non-compliance, two- stage least squares Background I’m not a criminologist, but I`ve long admired criminology from afar. As an applied economist who puts the task of convincingly answering causal questions at the top of my agenda, I’ve been impressed with the no-nonsense outcome-oriented approach taken by many quantitative criminologists. -
MIT Pre-Doctoral Research Fellow Professors Joshua Angrist and Parag Pathak
MIT Pre-Doctoral Research Fellow Professors Joshua Angrist and Parag Pathak Position Overview We are seeking a motivated, independent, and organized Pre-Doctoral Research Fellow to support efforts to evaluate and improve education programs and policies in the U.S. Research Fellows receive a two-year full-time appointment with the School Effectiveness and Inequality Initiative (SEII), a research lab based at the MIT Department of Economics and the National Bureau of Economic Research. SEII’s current research projects involve studies of the impact of education policies and programs in states like Massachusetts and cities such as Boston, Chicago, New York City, Indianapolis, and Denver. Principal Duties and Responsibilities Fellows will work closely with SEII Directors Joshua Angrist and Parag Pathak, as well as our collaborators at universities across the country, including Harvard University. Specific responsibilities include: o constructing data sets and preparing data for analysis o conducting analysis in Stata, R, and Matlab to answer research questions o presenting results and engaging in discussion in weekly team meetings o editing papers for publication The fellowship will be a full-time position located in Cambridge, Massachusetts. An employment term of two years is expected. This position is intended to act as a pathway to graduate school for candidates who plan to apply to an Economics or related Ph.D. program in the future. Previous fellows have gone to top-tier Economics Ph.D. programs, such as UC-Berkeley, MIT, and Stanford. Start date is flexible, with a strong preference for candidates who can begin on or before June 1, 2020. -
Can Successful Schools Replicate? Scaling up Boston's Charter School
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES CAN SUCCESSFUL SCHOOLS REPLICATE? SCALING UP BOSTON’S CHARTER SCHOOL SECTOR Sarah Cohodes Elizabeth Setren Christopher R. Walters Working Paper 25796 http://www.nber.org/papers/w25796 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 May 2019 Special thanks go to Carrie Conaway, Cliff Chuang, the staff of the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, and Boston’s charter schools for data and assistance. We also thank Josh Angrist, Bob Gibbons, Caroline Hoxby, Parag Pathak, Derek Neal, Eric Taylor and seminar participants at the NBER Education Program Meetings, Columbia Teachers College Economics of Education workshop, the Association for Education Finance and Policy Conference, the Society for Research on Educational Effectiveness Conference, Harvard Graduate School of Education, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, MIT Organizational Economics Lunch, MIT Labor Lunch, and University of Michigan Causal Inference for Education Research Seminar for helpful comments. We are grateful to the school leaders who shared their experiences expanding their charter networks: Shane Dunn, Jon Clark, Will Austin, Anna Hall, and Dana Lehman. Setren was supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship. The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education had the right to review this paper prior to circulation in order to determine no individual’s data was disclosed. The authors obtained Institutional Review Board (IRB) approvals for this project from NBER and Teachers College Columbia University. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. -
Field Experiments in Development Economics1 Esther Duflo Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Field Experiments in Development Economics1 Esther Duflo Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Department of Economics and Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab) BREAD, CEPR, NBER January 2006 Prepared for the World Congress of the Econometric Society Abstract There is a long tradition in development economics of collecting original data to test specific hypotheses. Over the last 10 years, this tradition has merged with an expertise in setting up randomized field experiments, resulting in an increasingly large number of studies where an original experiment has been set up to test economic theories and hypotheses. This paper extracts some substantive and methodological lessons from such studies in three domains: incentives, social learning, and time-inconsistent preferences. The paper argues that we need both to continue testing existing theories and to start thinking of how the theories may be adapted to make sense of the field experiment results, many of which are starting to challenge them. This new framework could then guide a new round of experiments. 1 I would like to thank Richard Blundell, Joshua Angrist, Orazio Attanasio, Abhijit Banerjee, Tim Besley, Michael Kremer, Sendhil Mullainathan and Rohini Pande for comments on this paper and/or having been instrumental in shaping my views on these issues. I thank Neel Mukherjee and Kudzai Takavarasha for carefully reading and editing a previous draft. 1 There is a long tradition in development economics of collecting original data in order to test a specific economic hypothesis or to study a particular setting or institution. This is perhaps due to a conjunction of the lack of readily available high-quality, large-scale data sets commonly available in industrialized countries and the low cost of data collection in developing countries, though development economists also like to think that it has something to do with the mindset of many of them. -
Uva-DARE (Digital Academic Repository)
UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Evaluating the effect of tax deductions on training Oosterbeek, H.; Leuven, E. DOI 10.1086/381257 Publication date 2004 Published in Journal of labor economics Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Oosterbeek, H., & Leuven, E. (2004). Evaluating the effect of tax deductions on training. Journal of labor economics, 22, 461-488. https://doi.org/10.1086/381257 General rights It is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Disclaimer/Complaints regulations If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: https://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible. UvA-DARE is a service provided by the library of the University of Amsterdam (https://dare.uva.nl) Download date:26 Sep 2021 Evaluating the Effect of Tax Deductions on Training Edwin Leuven, University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute Hessel Oosterbeek, University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute Dutch employers can claim an extra tax deduction when they train employees older than age 40. -
2020-Final-Report4.Pdf
The Work of the Future: Building Better Jobs in an Age of Intelligent Machines 2020 By David Autor, David Mindell, and Elisabeth Reynolds MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future DAVID AUTOR, TASK FORCE CO-CHAIR Ford Professor of Economics, Margaret MacVicar Fellow, and Associate Department Head Labor Studies Program Co-Director, National Bureau of Economic Research DAVID MINDELL, TASK FORCE CO-CHAIR Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Dibner Professor of the History of Engineering and Manufacturing Founder and CEO, Humatics Corporation ELISABETH REYNOLDS, TASK FORCE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Principal Research Scientist Executive, Director, MIT Industrial Performance Center Lecturer, Department of Urban Studies and Planning Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 2.0 LABOR MARKETSAND GROWTH 7 2.1 Two Faces of Technological Change: Task Automation and New Work Creation 8 Figure 1. The Fraction of Adults in Paid Employment Has Risen for Most of the Past 125 Years 9 Figure 2. More Than 60% of Jobs Done in 2018 Had Not Yet Been “Invented” in 1940 10 Table 1. Examples of New Occupations Added to the U.S. Census Between 1940 and 2018 12 2.2 Rising Inequality and the Great Divergence 13 Figure 3. Real Wages Have Risen for College Graduates and Fallen for Workers with High School Degree or Less Since 1980 14 Figure 4. Productivity and Compensation Growth in the United States, 1948 – 2016 15 Figure 5. Modest Median Wage Increases in the U.S. Since 1979 Were Concentrated Among White Men and Women 16 2.3 Employment Polarization and Diverging Job Quality 17 Figure 6. -
Phd in Public Policy 1997–2019 Harvard Kennedy School Job Placement | Phd in Public Policy
Harvard Kennedy School Job Placement PHD IN PUBLIC POLICY 1997–2019 HARVARD KENNEDY SCHOOL JOB PLACEMENT | PHD IN PUBLIC POLICY 2018–2019 Abraham Holland Gabriel Tourek Research Staff Member, Institute for Defense Analyses Post-Doctoral Associate, Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Ariella Kahn-Lang Action Lab (J-PAL) Researcher, Human Services, Mathematica Bradley DeWees Jennifer Kao Assistant Director of Operations, United States Assistant Professor, Strategy Unit, UCLA Anderson Air Force School of Management Emily Mower Stephanie Majerowicz Senior Data Scientist, edX Assistant Professor of Government, Universidad Daniel Velez-Lopez de los Andes, Colombia; Post-Doctoral Research Lead Analyst, Venture Fellowship Program, Fellow, briq Institute on Behavior & Inequality National Grid Partners 2017–2018 Juan Pablo Chauvin Todd Gerarden Research Economist, Inter-American Assistant Professor, Cornell University, Dyson School Development Bank Sarika Gupta Cuicui Chen World Bank, YPP Assistant Professor, SUNY Albany, Department Alicia Harley of Economics Post-doctoral Research Fellow, Harvard Kennedy Stephen Coussens School, Sustainability Science Program Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management, Janhavi Nilekani Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health Founder of Aastar Raissa Fabregas Lisa Xu Assistant Professor, University of Texas Austin, Harvard Graduate Students Union— Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs United Auto Workers 2016–2017 Martin Abel Laura Quinby Assistant Professor, Middlebury College, Research Economist, -
Development Economics University of Maryland Professor: Sebastian Galiani Spring, 2015
Development Economics University of Maryland Professor: Sebastian Galiani Spring, 2015 This course examines the causes and consequences of economic underdevelopment. The approach is both historical and scientific. We present theoretical models and applied work that test alternative hypothesis. Course Evaluation: The requirements for the course are conscientious reading and thinking, and some work: 1. Final exam: accounts for 40 percent of the final grade. 2. Mid-Term exam: accounts for 40 percent of final grade. 3. Class participation: accounts for 20 percent of the final grade. Reading List: 1. Development Economics: A long run perspective Angus Maddison (2001): The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD. Richard Easterlin (2001): Growth Triumphant: The Twenty-First Century in Historical Perspective, The University of Michigan Press. Lant Pritchet (1997): “Divergence, Big Time”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, 3-17. Robert Fogel (2004): The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100, Cambridge University Press. Angus Deaton (2013): The Great Scape: Health, Wealth and the Origin of Inequality, Princeton University Press. Francois Bourguignon and Christian Morrison (2002): “Inequality among world citizens: 1820-1992”, American Economic Review, 92, 727-44. Xavier Sala-i-Martin (2006), “The World Distribution of Income: Falling Poverty… and Convergence, Period”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 121, No. 2, 351-397. 2. Economic Growth Charles Jones and Dietrich Vollrath (2013): Introduction to Economic Growth, Norton. David Weil (2009): Economic Growth, Addison Wesley. Elhanan Helpman (2004): The Mystery of Economic Growth, Harvard University Press. Joel Mokyr (1990): The Level of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress, Oxford University Press. Massimo Livi-Bacci (2007): A Concise History of World Population, Blackwell Publishing. -
Wayward Sons: the Emerging Gender Gap in Labor Markets and Education 9 Figure 1B: Percent of Adults with Some College Education by Age 355
WAYWARD SONS THE EMERGING GENDER GAP IN LABOR MARKETS AND EDUCATION David Autor and Melanie Wasserman WAYWARD SONS THE EMERGING GENDER GAP IN LABOR MARKETS AND EDUCATION t is widely assumed that the traditional male domination of post- secondary education, highly paid occupations, and elite professions is a virtually immutable fact of the U.S. economic landscape. But Iin reality, this landscape is undergoing a tectonic shift. Although a significant minority of males continues to reach the highest echelons of achievement in education and labor markets, the median male is moving in the opposite direction. Over the last three decades, the labor market trajectory of males in the U.S. has turned downward along four dimensions: skills acquisition; employment rates; occupational stature; and real wage levels. These emerging gender gaps suggest reason for concern. While the news for women is good, the news for men is poor. These gaps in educational attainment and labor market advancement will pose two significant challenges for social and economic policy. First, because education has become an increasingly important determinant of lifetime income over the last three decades—and, more concretely, because earnings and employment prospects for less-educated U.S. workers have sharply deteriorated—the stagnation of male educational attainment bodes ill for the well-being of recent cohorts of U.S. males, particularly minorities and those from low-income households. Recent cohorts of males are likely to face diminished employment and earnings opportunities and other attendant maladies, including poorer health, higher probability of incarceration, and generally lower life satisfaction. Of equal concern are the implications that diminished male labor market opportunities hold for the well-being of others—children and potential mates in particular. -
The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments Oscar Jorda Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Moritz Schularick University of Bonn and CEPR Alan M. Taylor University of California, Davis NBER, and CEPR May 2018 Working Paper 2017-02 http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2017/02/ Suggested citation: Jorda, Oscar, Moritz Schularick, Alan M. Taylor. 2018. “The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2017-02. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2017-02 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments ? Oscar` Jorda` † Moritz Schularick ‡ Alan M. Taylor § April 2018 Abstract The trilemma of international finance explains why interest rates in countries that fix their exchange rates and allow unfettered cross-border capital flows are largely outside the monetary authority’s control. Using historical panel-data since 1870 and using the trilemma mechanism to construct an external instrument for exogenous monetary policy fluctuations, we show that monetary interventions have very different causal impacts, and hence implied inflation-output trade-offs, according to whether: (1) the economy is operating above or below potential; (2) inflation is low, thereby bringing nominal rates closer to the zero lower bound; and (3) there is a credit boom in mortgage markets. We use several adjustments to account for potential spillover effects including a novel control function approach.