for a living planet ® AN OVERVIEW OF Glaciers, glacier retreat, and its subsequent impacts in the Nepal, India and China AN OVERVIEW OF Glaciers, glacier retreat, and its subsequent impacts in the Nepal, India and China WWF First published: 2005 Reprinted: 2006 Coordinated by: Sandeep Chamling Rai Climate Change Officer WWF Nepal Program Editorial support: Trishna Gurung Communications Officer AREAS and Tiger Programmes WWF International This overview report is the product of a regional level project "Himalayan Glaciers and River Project" initiated by WWF Nepal Program, WWF India and WWF China Program. This report was compiled by Joe Thomas K and Sandeep Chamling Rai based on the following country reports: Nepal 'Nepalese Glaciers, Glacier Retreat and its Impact to the Broader Perspective of Nepal' Dr. Arun. B. Shrestha, Hydrologist-Engineers, Snow and Glaciers Hydrology Unit, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)/Ministry of Science and Technology, Kathmandu, Nepal. India 'Status review of possible Impacts of Climate Change on Himalayan Glaciers, Glaciers retreat and its subsequent impacts on fresh water regime' Dr. Rajesh Kumar, HIGHICE-India Glacier Research group, SES, JNU, New Delhi China 'An Overview of Glaciers, Retreating Glaciers, and Their Impact in the Tibetan Plateau' Yongping Shen, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Lanzhou 730000, China © WWF Nepal Program, 2006 ISBN: 999 46-837-2-1 AN OVERVIEW OF GLACIERS, GLACIER RETREAT, AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS IN THE NEPAL, INDIA AND CHINA Foreword Climate change is real and happening now. The planet is already experiencing its impacts on biodiversity, freshwater resources and local livelihoods. Using current climate change trends, by 2100, the average global temperature may rise by 1.4 - 5.8°C according to the Third Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001). This is certain disaster for fragile ecosystems like glaciers. Seventy percent of the worlds freshwater is frozen in glaciers. Glacier melt buffers other ecosystems against climate variability. Very often it provides the only source of water for humans and biodiversity during dry seasons. Freshwater is already a limited resource for much of the planet, and in the next three decades, the population growth is likely to far exceed any potential increase in available water. The Himalayas have the largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar caps. With glacier coverage of 33,000 km2, the region is aptly called the "Water Tower of Asia" as it provides around 8.6 X 106 m3 of water annually (Dyurgerov and Maier, 1997). These Himalayan glaciers feed seven of Asia's great rivers: the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Huang Ho. It ensures a year round water supply to millions of people. Climate change has impacted the glacial ecosystem tremendously. Sixty-seven percent of glaciers are retreating at a startling rate in the Himalayas and the major causal factor has been identified as climate change (Ageta and Kadota, 1992; Yamada et al., 1996; Fushinmi, 2000). Glacial melt will affect freshwater flows with dramatic adverse effects on biodiversity, and people and livelihoods, with a possible long-term implication on regional food security. WWF sees the impacts of climate change on glaciers and its subsequent impact on freshwater as a major issue, not just in the national context but also at a regional, transboundary level. The WWF offices in Nepal, India and China are taking the initiative to develop a regional collaboration to tackle climate change impacts in the glacial ecosystem and address adaptation measures. This report is the outcome of a regional collaboration of the three countries, providing an overview of climate impacts on glaciers with a focus on key areas that needs future intervention. We hope this will highlight the issue of climate change and galvanize policy makers to take action to ensure a living planet for future generations. Dr Chandra Prasad Gurung Ravi Singh Jim Harkness Country Representative Secretary General and CEO Country Representative WWF Nepal Program WWF India WWF China Program WWF Acknowledgements An Overview of Glaicer, Glaciers Retreat and its Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China is an overview of the regional Himalayan Glaciers and River Project initiated by WWF Nepal Program, WWF India and WWF China Program to foster regional collaboration, formulate a coordination strategy to tackle climate change impacts on glaciers, and address mitigation and adaptation options. Among the many people who made invaluable contributions to this report, I would especially like to thank Dr Arun Shrestha, Hydrologist-Engineer, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology - Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology/His Majesty Government of Nepal, Dr Rajesh Kumar, HIGHICE - India Glacier Research Group, Jawaharlal Nehru University, and Professor Yonping Shen, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) for the country status reports. For sharing their technical expertise, I am indebted to Jennifer Morgan, Director - WWF Climate Change Programme, Dr Lara Hansen, Chief Scientist - Climate Change Programme, Liam Salter, Coordinator - WWF Asia Pacific Climate and Energy Programme, Michael Case, Research Scientist Climate Change Programme, and Dr Michael Prentice, Institute for the Study of Earth, Ocean and Space at the University of New Hampshire, USA. I am grateful to Dr Chandra Prasad Gurung, Country Representative and Anil Manandhar, Conservation Programme Director, at WWF Nepal Programme for their support. Significant coordination and support in the preparation was unstintingly provided by Dr Prakash Rao, Coordinator, and Samrat Sengupta, Senior Policy Officer, Climate Change and Energy Programme at WWF India, Dr Lin Gan, Climate Change Officer and Qiao Liming, Programme Associates of the Energy and Climate Programme, WWF China Program. Contributions and comments from Martin Hiller, Communication Manager - WWF International, Trishna Gurung, Communications Officer - AREAS and Tiger Program, WWF International, Sangita Singh Shrestha, Communications Officer, and Aarati Gurung, Climate Change Campaign Officer from WWF Nepal Program also shaped this report. Last but not the least, I am extremely grateful to Pieter Stemerding, Manager - International Projects, WWF Netherlands, for recognizing the need for a report that presents a regional overview of climate change impacts in Nepal, China and India, and providing us with the resources to bring it to completion. Sandeep Chamling Rai Coordinator - Himalayan Glacier and River Project WWF Nepal Program AN OVERVIEW OF GLACIERS, GLACIER RETREAT, AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS IN THE NEPAL, INDIA AND CHINA Lists of Figures Figure 1: Cross-section of Nepal's topography 11 Figure 2: Precipitation in Nepal 12 Figure 3: Major drainage basins of Nepal 13 Figure 4: Spatial distribution of annual average maximum temperature trends in Nepal (1977 to 1994) 15 Figure 5: Comparison between temperature trends in Kathmandu, All-Nepal and Globally 16 Figure 6: Time series of precipitation in Nepal 16 Figure 7: Changes in temperature and precipitation for SERES scenario B2 17 Figure 8: Map showing locations of different areas of glacier study 19 Figure 9: Retreat of AX010 glacier 20 Figure 10: Longitudinal profile of Khumbu Glacier 21 Figure 11: a: Fluctuation of nine different points on the terminus of Yala Glacier 21 b: Terminus retreat and surface lowering of Yala Glacier during different periods 21 Figure12: Lirung Glacier in a. 1985 and b. 2002 22 Figure 13: Annual mean temperature trend in Kyangjing, Langtang station (3,900m) 22 Figure 14: Terminus position changes of Rika Samba Glacier 22 Figure 15: Discharge data of selected rivers (1996) 23 Figure 16: The footage of Dig Tsho GLOF 25 Figure 17: The footage of Imja Tsho in 2004 26 Figure 18: Growth of Tsho Rolpa from the late 1950s to 1997 27 Figure 19: Glacier distribution along the Himalayan arc 30 Figure 20: Retreat of the Gangotri Glacier (Garhwal Himalayas) snout during the last 220 years 33 Figure 21: The drainage map of Dokriani basin 34 Figure 22: Synoptic view of the Dokriani glacier 34 Figure 23: Drainage map of Bagirathi River, Garhwal Himalayas 36 Figure 24: Distribution of glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau 38 Figure 25: Pamirs Knot 40 Figure 26: Glaciers and four peaks higher than 8,000 m in the Karakorum 41 Figure 27: Midui Glacier in southeast Tibet in a mosoonal maritime glacier 43 Figure 28: The Puruogangri Ice Field in the Northern Tibetan Plateau 46 Figure 29: Boundaries of glaciers change in the A'nyêmaqên Mountains 51 Figure 30: Variation in distribution of ecological systems in source of the Yellow River and Yangtze River during 1986-2000 (Wang Genxu et al., 2004) 55 Figure 31: Swamp Meadow decreased pattern in the Yangtze River source 57 WWF Lists of Table Table 1: Discharge Date of Major Rivers of Nepal 14 Table 2: Regional Annual Average Maximum Temperature Trends for the period 1977- 94 (°C per year). 15 Table 3: GCM Estimates for temperature and precipitation changes in Nepal 18 Table 4: List of GLOF events recorded in Nepal. 25 Table 5: A status of the glacier inventory of Indus Basin 31 Table 6: A status of the glacier inventory of Ganga-Brahmaputra basins 31 Table7 Retreats of Important Glaciers in the Himalayas 32 Table 8: Glacier Resources in the Himalayas (after Dahe Qin et al., 1999) 43 Table 9: Recent variations in the Qilian Mountains (After Liu Chaohai