Politics Indiana

V15 N19 Thursday Dec. 18, 2008 Bush legacy: shock, awe & atrophy

First drafts in history focus on war, energy, an economy on the brink

By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - I was drawn to my March 13, 2003, pre-Iraq War shock and awe analysis as I set out to write my first draft of history of President George W. Bush. The first four sentences read: “This is brinksmanship on an epic scale. Within the next month there could possibly be, as the rock band REM might say, the ‘end of the world as we know it.’ President George W. Bush is taking a huge, calculated gamble, leading the nation into a war a majority of Americans appear to believe is morally correct. The danger lies in its execution, the retribution of our deficits topping $300 billion, an acknowledgment from the enemies, and the impact on an economy that has been Bush administration that his second round of tax cuts likely described as ‘the dagger aimed at the heart’ of the Bush wouldn’t have a near-term stimulus, and an ominous warn- administration.” ing from Warren Buffett about derivatives becoming ‘time But it was my seventh paragraph that in retro- spect is fascinating: “There have been warnings of budget See Page 3 Unrealized potential By MARK SCHOEFF JR. WASHINGTON - By two objective standards, Presi- dent Bush was a failure after eight years in office. He is leaving the country and his party in worse shape than he found them. History may judge him more gen- “I feel an obligation to my erously. It’s ridiculous, of course, to try to draw a conclusion before he’s even successor. I don’t think it’s good left the White House. In fact, he has pretty much avoided being a lame duck. policy to dump on him a major More so than any president in recent memory, he is wielding power right up catastrophe on his first day in to the moment he has to step down. Although we can’t yet draw a con- office.” clusion about Bush’s tenure, it’s not too early to point out missed opportunities. - President Bush on the Big 3 HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008

We can start with his inherent politi- traordinary opportunity to reach across Howey Politics cal skills and his failure to use them the aisle and draw in Democrats as Indiana for his - and the country’s - benefit. permanent allies on a range of issues. Bush’s electoral success He could have cemented relationships is a nonpartisan news- has been attributed in part to his with then-Republican chairmen of key letter based in Indianapolis ability to connect with people. That committees. He could have united the may sound strange for someone country in a way that obliterated the and published by NewsLink whose approval ratings have not red-blue schism. been north of 40 percent in years. Instead, after a brief period Inc. It was founded in But Bush, certainly more so than his of comity, the Bush-Rove tactics of 1994 in Fort Wayne. competitors for office, former Vice divide and conquer took over. Repub- President Al Gore and Sen. John licans gained seats in the mid-term Kerry, was seen as someone that election of 2002 because Bush and Brian A. Howey, publisher voters would like to meet for a drink Rove portrayed Democrats as weak on Mark Schoeff Jr., after work. security. Washington writer Indeed, Bush consistently That was the beginning of the demonstrates a warm personality end of any hope that Bush would follow Jack E. Howey, editor and sense of hu- through on an elec- Beverly Phillips, associate mor. He doesn’t tion promise in 2000 editor and subscription hold many press to change the tone management conferences. in Washington. In- But when he stead, Republicans Subscriptions: does meet with became even more $350 annually HPI via e-mail; reporters, he has combative. That $550 annually HPI & HPI Daily an easygoing attitude contributed rapport that so to the hubris that Wire. far has eluded caused the party Call 317-627-6746 President-elect to lose its congres- Barack Obama. President Bush with U.S. Rep. Chris sional majorities in Also un- Chocola in 2004. 2006 and to drop Howey Politics Indiana like Obama, Bush even more seats 6255 North Evanston has shown that this year. Indianapolis, IN 46220 he can laugh at himself. The latest What if Bush had embraced evidence is his ability to roll with the Congress after Sept. 11? What if he Contact Us: punches when a reporter in Baghdad had really worked hard at the relation- threw shoes at him. ship? Even if he kept Democrats at www.howeypolitics.com These skills have probably arm’s length, he could have at least [email protected] served Bush well when he’s met listened to leaders in his own party, like Main Office: 317-202-0210. with members of Congress. Sure, Sen. Richard Lugar. the Democratic majorities on Capitol Such an approach might Howey’s Mobile: 317-506-0883. Hill attack Bush every day. But when have created an atmosphere that Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. he meets with members in small would have helped build Rove’s dream; Washington: 202-256-5822. groups, it’s not hard to imagine that a Republican advantage in Congress Business Office: 317-631-9450. he’s charming. that would last for a generation or That’s why the Bush ap- more. ©2008, Howey Politics proach to Congress - and politics in But in the end, it was the Hill Indiana. All rights reserved. general - over the last eight years Republicans who revolted against Bush. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, is inexplicable. He and his former Although he was able to bend Demo- faxing or reproducing in any form, top adviser, Karl Rove, adopted an crats to his will until his final days in us-versus-them mentality. They said office on everything from an Iraq time in whole or part, is a violation of to Congress and to the world: You’re line to the parameters of a financial federal law without permission from either with us or against us. rescue package, Bush lost control of his the publisher. After the terrorist attacks of own party. Sept. 11, 2001, Bush had an ex- Republicans ultimately scuttled HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008

such Bush priorities as comprehensive immigration reform. new strategy seems to be producing results in Iraq, flying Bush’s divide-and-conquer proclivity also was a staple of shoes notwithstanding. his 2004 campaign. He was perhaps one of the weakest During his second term, he made course correc- incumbent presidents ever re-elected, but he did it by po- tions in the way he dealt with the world. His administration larizing the electorate and getting his base to the polls. became more multilateral and cooperative with foreign al- What if he had run a campaign more like Obama’s, lies and more willing to listen to critics at home and over- which was basically constructive and asked people to join seas. In fact, Bush appointed a defense secretary, Robert a cause? Bush might have laid the groundwork to ensure Gates, who drew so much bipartisan praise that Obama is that a Republican would succeed him in the Oval Office. keeping him in the Cabinet. Bush may mangle his syntax, but he is a smart Clearly, Bush had the political skills to create a man and a savvy politician. He made a huge mistake by lasting positive legacy. Instead, he chose to fight when he failing to prepare properly for the aftermath of the Iraq should have reached out. Now we have to wait for history war. But he showed that he can overcome errors. Today, a to determine how much damage he did. v

the U.S. is morphing the other way. We have witnessed the Bush legacy greatest expansion of entitlements since the Great Society. The budget has gone from a $431 billion surplus in January bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the eco- 2001 to at $455 billion deficit on Oct. 15. nomic system’ and ‘financial weapons of mass destruction, In July 2005, Bush spoke at Indiana Black Expo, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially celebrating a rise in African-American home ownership. lethal’ to the banking system.” “That’s good for America,” Bush told 3,000 gathered at the The seventh paragraph was prescient. Few Ameri- RCA Dome. Embedded here - and certainly not constricted cans were worried about derivatives on the eve of the to any particular race - were Iraq War. The final Bush years the seeds of another disaster, became a nexus where the Oil the mortgage meltdown. This Presidency, the loosened regu- was Bush’s “ownership soci- lations on Wall Street, and the ety” that found a deregulated utter lack of an energy policy Wall Street and a snoozing taking into account national Securities and Exchange security implications, became Commission presiding over the perfect storm that howls mortgages lent to people as Bush and Cheney prepare who couldn’t afford them, their exits. There are now $7.5 then bundled and sold into billion in funded and unfunded what would become “toxic” securities. The Washington debt that now requires a greenback printing press is $700 billion taxpayer bailout roaring. Because of a lack of with no guarantees. While an energy policy and a federal President Bush and President Elect Obama at the White House the seeds of this deregula- mandate for the Big 3 to pro- in November. tion were planted during the duce more energy efficient cars Clinton years, candidate Bush and trucks, it is now threaten- would observe at the Metro Church in Indianapolis in July ing 20 percent of Indiana’s economic sector - automobiles. 1999, “Prosperity must have a purpose. The dream is for That Bush said in his 2006 State of the Union speech that you. No great calling is ever easy and no work of man is “America is addicted to oil” comes off in retrospect with ever perfect. But we can, in our imperfect way, rise now virtual childlike naivete. and again to the example of St. Francis - where there is ha- Here we stand today in the penultimate month of tred, sowing love; where there is darkness, shedding light. Bush’s eight-year legacy. Despite Republican accusations where there is despair, bringing hope.” hurled last fall that Barack Obama was a “socialist,” we find Bush ironically brought about “hope” in the form of the “conservative” Bush presiding over an American econ- Barack Obama. His 32 percent disapproval rating created omy with essentially state-owned banks. Taxpayers might the door for Obama to win Indiana’s 11 Electoral College even find themselves as owners of auto companies. In the votes this week. Exit polling would show that 60 percent of irony of ironies, it may be Bush who extends a lifeline to Hoosier voters saw the economy as the top issue (com- the United Auto Workers. As China morphs into capitalism, pared to the 17 percent in 2004’s leading issue of “moral HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008

values” spurred by the Bush/Rove gay marriage ban wedge The Oil Presidency strategy) and 52 percent of them voted for Obama. Asked There was to be great volatility with gas prices dur- by ABC’s Charlie Gibson if he helped Obama win, Bush ing this Oil Presidency, with the political price paid on both blamed the Republican Party. “I think it was a repudia- war and gas in November 2006 when Indiana became the tion of Republicans. And I’m sure some people voted for only state to flip three congressional seats from Republican Barack Obama because of me. I think most people voted to Democrat. By the end of the Bush presidency, prices for Barack Obama because they decided they wanted him rose to $4.19 a gallon and fueled Barack Obama’s improb- to be in their living room for the next four years explaining able victory in November. That they tumbled to $1.40 a policy.” gallon this month is indicative of the wild swings that are The near collapse of American capitalism also led buffeting the markets, business owners and consumers. to an extraordinary and breathtaking reversal by Bush, who Deflation is now a major worry and a sign of a truly sick told CNN earlier this week, “I’ve abandoned free-market economy. While many urged Bush to create an energy tax principles to save the free-market system.” It was almost that would bring a $60 a barrel floor to oil prices so as not like Morley Safer watching U.S. soldiers torching Vietnam- to undercut the ethanol and coal gasification facilities under ese villages with Zippo lighters to save them. In statements construction in Indiana, it appears to be another missed that could allow him to join the opportunity. company of President Herbert That the bottom dropped Hoover, The Decider added out of gas prices this fall at a that his decisions were made time when huge commodity trad- “to make sure the economy ing departments at Bear Stearns, doesn’t collapse.” Merrill Lynch and Lehman Broth- “I am sorry we’re hav- ers disappeared is also telling in ing to do it,” Bush said. “I feel the nexus of Wall Street and Big a sense of obligation to my Oil. successor to make sure there Lugar said at the Purdue is not a, you know, a huge University Energy Summit in economic crisis.” August 2006, “Neither American Not a “huge” eco- oil companies, nor American car nomic crisis? Bush explained companies, have shown an incli- further, “Look, we’re in a crisis nation to dramatically transform now. I mean, this is ... we’re in their businesses in ways that will a huge recession, but I don’t achieve the degree of change want to make it even worse.” we need to address a national security emergency. Most Sen. Dick Lugar told students at the University of importantly, the federal government is not treating energy Indianapolis last Saturday, “It’s too early to tell whether it vulnerability as a crisis, despite an increase in energy re- is of the same magnitude of the Great Depression of 1929 lated proposals.” and ‘30. This is a crisis because it is very huge, but at this Lugar has long blamed the Bush administration for point it’s not of proportions of many we have seen before. a lack of a cohesive energy policy. “Our failure to act will . . . Rather than be consumed by the crisis of fear, we need be all the more unconscionable given that success would to really be exhibiting more confidence.” bring not only relief from the geopolitical threats of en- Americans are scared; their fear having incubated ergy-rich regimes, but also restorative economic benefits to for the past few years. When Howey/Gauge began polling our farmers, rural areas, automobile manufacturers, high in February of 2008, the fear expressed by respondents - technology industries, and many others,” Lugar explained. well before $4 a gallon gas and the Wall Street and Detroit “We must be very clear that this is a political problem. We collapses - was already palpable. now have the financial resources, the industrial might, and Thus, a legacy of the second Bush presidency is the technological prowess to shift our economy away from the direct opposite of Franklin Roosevelt’s most enduring oil dependence. What we are lacking is coordination and quote: “The only thing we have to fear is ... fear itself.” The political will. We have made choices, as a society, which Bush presidency was all about fear. Iraqi drones spraying have given oil a near monopoly on American transporta- U.S. cities with anthrax. “We don’t want the smoking gun tion. Now we must make a different choice in the interest to be a mushroom cloud.” Or gay marriage. “Saddam Hus- of American national security and our economic future.” sein is a homicidal dictator who is addicted to weapons of Lugar told the Deloitte Energy Conference in May mass destruction.” 2007, “The president’s energy activities are barely register- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 5 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008

ing in the American consciousness. In large part, this is come from? How is it to be disbursed and by whom?” because there is no energy campaign upon which he has Nina Easton would write in the Boston Globe in July visibly and repeatedly staked his reputation and legacy. 2003 that Lugar discovered the “haphazard” way in which With the possible exception of drilling in the Arctic National American reconstruction costs were being handled. The Wildlife Refuge, there is nothing in the Bush domestic White House needed “the discipline of actually constructing energy program that a well-in- a budget for years,” Lugar formed American would identify said at the time. “We need to with this administration.” fill in the blanks. We cannot Osama bin Laden’s have numerous surprises, a Sept. 11 attacks were aimed at sort of ‘gotcha trail’ as we destroying the American econ- keep running out of money.” omy. The attacks caught the Last Sunday, the New York unprepared Bush administration Times reported on a 513- by surprise. The U.S. and West- page, unpublished draft of ern response was measured in a federal report that depicts tens of billions of dollars, and a the American-led reconstruc- near collapse of the airline in- tion of Iraq as “an effort dustry. Bin Laden’s stated goal crippled by Pentagon plan- was oil at $150 a barrel (it rose ners who were hostile to the to $147 a barrel last summer), idea of rebuilding a foreign and the destruction of Western country and then molded economies. Even as he hides in Sen. Lugar and President Bush embrace at the Indiana State into $117 billion failure by his Pakistani cave, it’s not hard Fairrounds in May 2003. (HPI Photo by Ellen M. Jackson) bureaucratic turf wars, spiral- to argue that he’s come close to ing violence and ignorance of his goals. the basic elements of Iraqi society and infrastructure.” Once again, in the last few weeks, Bush has Iraq War blamed the tragic miscues in Iraq to “intelligence failure” The Iraq War represents Bush’s greatest gamble even though authors like Bob Woodward, Michael Gordon and, perhaps, his best chance of improving his standing and Thomas E. Ricks (along with former Bush communi- among our 43 presidents. There was no WMD in Iraq, as cations director Scott McCleland) documented the hyped weapons inspector Scott Ritter warned at the time. The intelligence that sold the war. White House induced “group think” and a passive press Vice President Cheney would say in Nashville (which is now facing its own era of atrophy and bank- in 2002, “Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam ruptcy) helped pave the catastrophic route. The idea of Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction. There preemptive war became a facade for a president’s personal is no doubt that he is amassing them to use against our vendetta against a dictator who once tried to kill his father. friends, against our allies, and against us. Time is not on Great American presidents ranging from Lincoln to FDR en- our side. The risks of inaction are far greater than the risks dured bad military leadership and stunning defeats before of action.” In his book “Fiasco: The American Military the Grants, Shermans, Eisenhowers and Pattons emerged. Adventure in Iraq,” Ricks noted that retired Marine Gen. Bush has his David Petraeus, but not until he goaded the Anthony Zinni “nearly fell off his chair” when he heard insurgency as Lincoln and Roosevelt never did: “My answer Cheney speak. “In my time at Centcom, I watched the is, bring ‘em on,” he said as the Iraq insurgency gathered intelligence and never - not once - did it say, ‘(Saddam) has over the July 4 weekend in 2003. WMD.’ It was never there, never there.” Or “Dead or alive.” Mission accomplished. Sopho- ABC’s Gibson asked Bush earlier this month: mores in power. “You’ve always said there’s no do-overs as President. If you Hoosiers heard the warnings of Sen. Dick Lugar, had one?” who became a man firmly outside the circle of power. Bush responded, “I don’t know -- the biggest re- It was alarming when Newsweek reported in July 2003 gret of all the presidency has to have been the intelligence that Lugar was worried about the American people being failure in Iraq. A lot of people put their reputations on the blindsided by the true costs of blood and treasure. “This line and said the weapons of mass destruction is a reason idea that we will be in Iraq just as long as we need and not to remove Saddam Hussein. It wasn’t just people in my a day more is rubbish!” Lugar was quoted in 2003. “We’re administration; a lot of members in Congress, prior to my going to be there a long time. Where does the money arrival in Washington ... during the debate on Iraq, a lot of leaders of nations around the world were all looking at the HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 6 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008

same intelligence. And, you this month, the Commission know, that’s not a do-over, on the Prevention of WMD but I wish the intelligence Proliferation and Terrorism had been different, I explained that “the U.S. guess.” government has yet to fully If the intelligence adapt to these circumstanc- had been right, would es and to convey the sober- there have been an Iraq ing reality that the risks war? are growing faster than our Bush answered, multilayer defenses. Our “Yes, because Saddam margin of safety is shrink- Hussein was unwilling to let ing, not growing.” This is the inspectors go in to de- part of the Bush legacy termine whether or not the with an unknown ending. U.N. resolutions were being upheld. In other words, Bush Successes if he had had weapons of President Bush during the Sept. 11 attacks at a school in Sarasota. There have been some mass destruction, would (White House Photo) Bush administration suc- there have been a war? cesses. It has been the Absolutely.” most aggressive presidency Gibson pressed, “No, if you had known he didn’t.” fighting AIDS with former Lilly CEO Randy Tobias leading “Oh, I see what you’re saying,” Bush responded. the way. If you are pro-life, the Supreme Court of Hoosier- “You know, that’s an interesting question. That is a do-over born Chief Justice John Roberts is closer than ever to a that I can’t do. It’s hard for me to speculate.” repeal of Roe vs. Wade. The federal bench is much more Eighty-eight Hoosiers - from Richard Blakely, 34, to conservative. Nick Idalski, 23, to Zachariah Gonzalez, 23 - would pay the There have been many other controversies: the ultimate price. more than 700 presidential signing statements, the hand- It is Iraq, however, that could salvage part of ful of vetoes as Congress went on a spending rampage, the Bush legacy. If Barack Obama and Defense Secretary the expansion of government after candidate Bush cam- Robert Gates can orchestrate an orderly drawdown, and paigned on conservative economic principles and against Iraq becomes a stable democracy and prolific oil producer, nation building. The true central front of the War on Terror Bush’s standing in history will certainly improve from - Afghanistan - is an eroding situation and one of the big- today’s brutal first drafts. gest challenges facing the Obama presidency. So, too, is The hallmark claim of the Bush presidency is that a conclusion to the U.S. role in Iraq. The other hallmark is since Sept. 11, 2001, he has kept the U.S. “safe.” The that George W. Bush didn’t reach out beyond his circle. In 9/11 Commission Report authored in part by Hoosiers Tim all the books on Iraq, Lugar - despite his role as chairman Roemer and Lee Hamilton, called the of the Senate Foreign Relations Commit- attacks, “a shock, but they should not tee - barely shows up in the footnotes. have come as a surprise. By Septem- The aforementioned authors describe ber 2002 the executive branch of the President Bush as intellectually incurious U.S government, the Congress, the at a time when the stew of ideas and news media and the American pub- discussion should have been intense. lic had received clear warning that Thus, the Bush administration of Islamist terrorists meant to kill Ameri- today has brought us an America gripped cans in high numbers.” CIA Director in economic crisis and potential depres- George Tenet described it to the Com- sion, an economy where Americans mission as “the system was blinking have seen the values of their homes and red” in the spring and summer before cars shrink for the first time in modern the attacks. history, where the next generation may Even as Bush exits, Roemer not live as well or as long as the previ- warns that America might see a WMD ous 10 generations. We find No Child President Bush as he names Indiana na- attack within the next five years. In its Left Behind under-funded and America tive John Roberts as U.S. Supreme Court “World at Risk” report issued earlier facing a science and math student Chief Justice. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 7 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 4, 2008

shortage. His stem cell research ban may have slowed the trast with the Camelot presidency of John F. Kennedy. search for cures of the cruelest diseases. There has been Since the first Eisenhower historical drafts, he has no remedy to the immigration controversies. We have the ascended into many historians top ten lists as as one of our two wars with unknown endings. GNP and savings are country’s best presidents. Eisenhower kept the nation out down; poverty is up. Bush has taken a compliant and mute of four wars, ended the Korean conflict, built the interstate Republican Party into a new wilderness while blaming it for highway system and started the space program. As histori- his own excesses, hype and shortcomings. ans finally accessed his papers, they found a probing, intel- Politically, Indiana is now a blue state with a 6-3 lectual chief who in retrospect made many wise decisions. Democratic congressional delegation - something almost Thus, beware of these first drafts of history, unfathomable eight years ago. This is not the bottom line for time will certainly alter perspectives, supply clues to to the Bush-Cheney years that anyone could have compre- mysteries and answer the most elusive questions we have hended when it all began. today. The flash of crisis can alter perspective. There is no access to the presidential papers. It’s like a political poll: a snapshot in time that can burnish subject and author as Postscript: They Didn’t Like Ike either a prescient seer beyond the horizon ... or a fool with I was born in 1956 under President Eisenhower, a keyboard. v whose own first drafts of history had consigned him to the ranks of the mediocre bottom third. Like Bush, he often Publisher’s Note: Howey Politics Indiana extended an mangled syntax and wasn’t seen as an extraordinary or invitation to a number of Republicans to contribute to this creative chief executive. As he left office, he faced a con- edition on the Bush presidency. Most took a pass.

Median household income was $49,163 in A dismal legacy 2001; it is $48,023 today. Meanwhile, gas prices have increased from $1.39 a gallon to $3.07, and the cost of By SHEILA KENNEDY college tuition has gone from $3,164 to $5,192. Consumer Before we rush to bid a not-so-fond farewell to the debt has nearly doubled, from $7.65 trillion to $12.8 trillion. Bush Administration, it may be instructive to examine the When we turn from domestic matters to in- legacy of the past seven years. ternational ones, we see an equally dismal landscape: our Bush took office in 2001. trade deficit has soared from $380 billion to $759 billion, During the previous eight years, and the value of the dollar has declined precipitously. In Gross Domestic Product had grown 2001, a dollar would buy you 1.07 Euros; today, it will get an average of 4.09% annually. Over you .68. We are more dependent on foreign oil. Our armed the past seven years, GDP growth forces are stretched dangerously thin. And don’t even ask has averaged 2.65% per year. about our international reputation: a recent Pew poll of The national debt was ten nations charted dramatic declines in the percentage $5.7 trillion in 2001. It is $9.2 tril- of people in those countries holding a favorable view of lion in March ($10.6 trillion on Dec. America. 17). Over the three years preceding What these statistics from government agencies 2001, the government had actually - the Treasury Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics and managed to amass a $431 billion the like - can’t and don’t take into account is the damage surplus; during these last three done to America’s governing institutions by this Administra- years, we’ve had a $734 billion deficit (it was $455 billion tion’s unremitting assaults on the rule of law. How does an on Oct. 14). accountant quantify cynicism? How do we measure dis- The Clinton Administration created an average of trust, or value lost accountability? 1.76 million private sector jobs each year during its eight It is hard to imagine that anyone running for years in office; the Bush Administration has averaged President in 2008, on either ticket, could do a worse job. 369,000 per year. But whoever wins will face daunting challenges. The next In 2001, there were 31.6 million Americans liv- President must restore fiscal sanity, address our multiple ing in poverty, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Today, problems, repair our international reputation, and - most the Bureau reports there are 36.5 million. important of all - make us believe in America again. v When Bush took office, there were 38 million Americans without health insurance; today there are an Kennedy teaches at IUPUI. This column was origi- estimated 47 million, and the average annual family health nally published on March 3, 2008 in the Indianapolis insurance premium has increased from $6,230 to $12,106. Page 8 Thursday Dec. 18, 2008

garding Bush as “evil,” knowingly doing things to harm the Will Bush follow nation. The president never told former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld: “Rummy, I want you to mess up the oc- path of Truman? cupation of Iraq, lose as many troops as possible and keep By JACK COLWELL that thing going badly.” His mistake was not removing the SOUTH BEND - President George W. Bush, with inept Rumsfeld long before he finally did. Bush was stub- unwavering faith in his beliefs and himself, is convinced of born, but not intent on evil. his place in history. His critics also are President Bush stuck with his beliefs about the convinced of his place. best course for the nation after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. There’s agreement. Not on where Even some severe critics of failure to know what he’ll place eventually among the to do in Iraq after reaching Baghdad, after initial military presidents after historians look back victory, concede that the “surge” he ordered after finally at results and ramifications of his finding the right general has been at least a significant fac- policies and accomplishments or lack tor in reducing violence in Iraq. thereof. But Bush and his detractors Nor, despite what some Bush haters seem to be- do agree that he is leaving office as a lieve, did he ever order: “Let’s redistribute the wealth, take very unpopular president. it all away from the middle class and give it to the wealthi- Bush, certain that war in Iraq was est, especially friends of mine and Dick Cheney in the oil justified and just, has suggested that business. And let’s eliminate regulations so wheelers and he will be vindicated in history, same dealers can do whatever they want.” as historians have come to appreciate Harry S. Truman, Again, he believed he was pursuing the right another president who led the nation into war and left course, counting on tax cuts and less regulation to spur the office with approval ratings plummeting amid widespread economy and bring jobs to the middle class and the poor dissatisfaction over conduct of the war, conditions at home as well as provide more opportunity for the wealthy. and the level of competency in the White House. Recently disclosed White House talking points to While Truman rates high now, promote a positive Bush legacy stress that he responded with greater appreciation for his cour- quickly and deci- age to make tough decisions, critics of sively after 9/11 Bush say a comparison with Truman is and has “kept us ludicrous because Truman was compe- safe” from further tent, not bumbling, and left the nation terrorist attacks in stronger, not weaker. They put Bush in America. the “failed” category of reviled or weak Indeed, he did presidents the likes of James Buchan- order quick and an, Andrew Johnson, Millard Fillmore, decisive action in James Polk and Franklin Pierce. Afghanistan. As in Although it’s far too early to Iraq, the problem affix a lasting rank among the presi- was not with the dents for Bush, still with a month left initial military ac- in office, a poll of historians by His- tion but with fail- tory News Network found 61 percent ure to realize the of those surveyed evaluating Bush as need for follow-up “worst ever.” President Bush with Vice President Cheney and CIA Director Tenet. “nation building” Critics say Bush misled the (White House Photo) to secure victory. nation about weapons of mass de- And it’s struction in Iraq and tricked us into a a fact that the long and costly war that squandered U.S. military might, nation thus far has escaped the series of follow-up terror- diminished influence and respect abroad and left Iran as ist attacks that many feared and predicted. Should Bush the real winner. They blame Bush economic policies for be credited for this? Even if his policies are not the sole devastating the middle class, running up record deficits and reason, if he is to be blamed for all that went wrong on his bringing on the worst recessionary times since the Great watch, shouldn’t he in fairness get credit for results that Depression. were better than expected? Some of the harshest critics clearly go too far, re- Defenders of the president say the huge deficits HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 9 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008

and many present economic woes are due to a needed war on terror, not to failed Bush economic policies. That’s one Prevent defense vs. of the parts of the Bush record that historians will explore. How much of record spending was needed to fight terrorists? A lot, certainly, especially in Afghanistan. How aggressive engagement much was wasted. A lot, certainly, especially in the long, By KEVIN KELLEMS chaotic and ineffective stumbling in Iraq after initial defeat CANAAN, Ind - The face-off between my former of Saddam Hussein’s military forces. But was the whole colleague Scott McClellan and the White House establish- expenditure to invade Iraq in the first place a waste? Or ment over his book, “What Happened,” reminds me of the was the ousting of Saddam, even if he didn’t have weapons title of former Indiana GOP Chairman Rex Early’s delightful of mass destruction, a worthwhile endeavor? Historians will book, “It’s a Mighty Thin Pancake (That Don’t Have Two look and try to evaluate all of that. Sides).” Other Bush spending has become controversial In our daily West even with his conservative base, with critics on the right Wing meetings and saying he turned out not to be a conservative. informal conversa- They cite what they call the greatest growth of tions, I got the im- government since the days of Lyndon Johnson. They cite pression Scott was the Medicare prescription drug plan as too costly and No in an uncomfortable Child Left Behind as improper federal intrusion in local position - swimming education. They cite growth of the federal bureaucracy and upstream against failure of Bush to veto big spending bills approved while strong currents Republican congressional leaders were running amok with amid some very lobbyists. big fish. Under Still, some of the programs that miff those on the enormous pressure and without full backing from some right could be viewed as proof that those on the left are above him in the food chain, McClellan toiled doggedly to unfair in portraying Bush as nothing but a cold-hearted get the ball back over the net each day - taking great care right-wing ideologue. to stay on script. As the president completes his final weeks in the Like all press secretaries, he did his share of White House, as his last chance at legacy building draws to bellyaching behind the scenes about particular members of a close, he has again shown that he cannot be described the so-called mainstream media (e.g., Tim Russert suc- as an anti-government ideologue. With the recession cessor David Gregory of NBC, UPI’s incoherent warhorse worsening, his administration has taken action to counter Helen Thomas, and the New York Times and Knight-Ridder the downturn, with massive government intervention and bureaus). But with McClellan, what shone through behind spending. He also seeks, after Senate Republicans blocked closed doors was frustration with being on a short leash, help for the automotive Big Three, to keep them from go- and having such little meaningful information to share. ing bankrupt. The role of the presidential press secretary has This president is determined not to be remembered evolved from one in which creativity, wit and offensive as “another President Hoover.” risk-taking was rewarded (e.g., President Clinton’s extraor- He will not be haunted by a “Monica” and ques- dinarily effective Mike McCurry who engaged in genuine tions about morality but by a “Katrina” and questions about debate) - into one in which something more like an autom- competence. aton reads pre-scripted bites of anodyne boilerplate from a Despite what harsh critics say about his place in tabbed binder hidden neatly on the podium. history, President Bush, with unwavering faith in his beliefs But don’t let current White House Dana Perino’s and himself, is convinced of a presidential ranking eventual- telegenic presence and disciplined delivery fool you: she ly somewhere near Harry S. Truman. That high? Somewhat is a domestic policy wonk with remarkable retention and lower? Dead last? Somewhat higher? Most of us have our an unfailingly uplifting disposition. Then there was Scott’s own views. In the long run, historians, with advantage of talented predecessor: the relentless offense and perma- hindsight and revelations yet to come, will have theirs. v grin of the Mr. Teflon, Ari Fleischer (husband of Greenfield’s very own Becki Davis, a former aide to OMB Director Mitch Colwell has covered Indiana politics for more than Daniels and Indiana Secretary of State Sue Anne Gilroy), five decades for the South Bend Tribune. drove seasoned reporters batty. In light of the context in which these folks have operated, they at least held their own against tall odds in HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 10 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008

what has become perhaps the second most difficult job in the entire Executive Branch. But their work was made more dif- ficult than it had to be. Why? Because the Bush Administration too often employed a retrograde form of prevent defense in the policy communications arena. Instead of empowering and protecting its professional communicators and senior policymakers, the tendency was to limit their maneuver- ability, permit inconsistent access, compart- mentalize information, avoid reasonable risk taking and encourage group think. To discourage aggressive engagement, and focus on defense at the expense of a more effective offense. cidal tyrannies in Iraq and Afghanistan (ditto). These flaws were not limited narrowly, however, to the work of spokesmen; they reflected a broader pref- Biggest Failure: erence among the cautious inner circle for protecting the No enduring governing coalition; unmet goal of be- principal and limiting overall exposure to the vagaries of ing “Uniter, not Divider.” free and open pubic debate of serious issues. Part of this surely was the product of President Strengths: Bush 43 watching how Papa 41 was treated by the so- 1. Unwavering, cold-blooded focus on security of called Mainstream Media (in reality now the Opposition the homeland and steadfast commitment to take the fight Media) as a young man and as an active participant in his to the enemy around the globe. father’s fatal re-election campaign. 2. Decisive presidential leadership style. It is also the product of habit: the Texans who ran 3. President Bush’s drive to win and personal cam- two brilliant gubernatorial campaigns and terms in office paign skills. brought the playbook and core personnel with them to Washington, and played a version of the same game – with Weaknesses: the exception of Karl Rove, who understood that re-election 1. Relations with Congress (talented senior staff requires confident forward movement, bold thinking and worked hard but some key senior policymakers didn’t make public engagements. it a priority or take it seriously enough). 2. Presidential personnel practices and several key *** appointments. When you leave an administration, everyone wants 3. First term dysfunction of the National Security to know what it was like and how it works on the inside. Council policy process (infighting). It is important to let time pass before answering, and to continually test one’s objectivity. And, of course, it is best Mistakes: to wait until the administration’s work is largely done. 1. Avoiding the key debate over evidence of Sad- Obviously, any analyst is influenced by his van- dam Hussein’s ties with international terrorists - out of fear tage point; no one is truly objective. I am proud of hav- of selective leaks to the media from members of the intel- ing served and respect the vast majority of those who ligence community. peopled this somewhat star-crossed administration. From 2. Appointment of Jerry Bremer as “Viceroy” of the the vantage point of having worked at the Pentagon from Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, with nearly un- 2001-2003 and White House from 2003-2005, here are checked authority and presidential reporting line some preliminary summary conclusions - oversimplified and 3. Not swinging the big club more often (Vice Pres- without nuance, for the sake of brevity: ident Cheney’s unrivaled ability to distill complex national security policy and explain it logically and powerfully to the Biggest Achievements: public) v 1. No follow-on attack after 9/11 - a colossal achievement for which the President does not yet get Kevin Kellems served in the Office of the Vice Presi- credit, but which will loom large with the passage of time. dent from 2003-2005 and Office of the Secretary of 2. Liberating tens of millions of people from geno- Defense from 2001-2003. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 11 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008

answers, there was concern that he might not be up to the W for ‘wrong track’ job. As I wrote at the time, the presidential conveyor belt was producing a result that would give us the man who By DAVE KITCHELL would have to deal with serious world issues daily even LOGANSPORT - For those who haven’t seen the though he had never won a World Series in his favorite oc- latest Oliver Stone movie “W”, I won’t spoil the storyline. cupation as the owner of the Texas Rangers. Stone and Bush have something in common - they For Americans, Bush has been a man voters both went to Yale. After watching the movie, which will would like to have a beer with instead of Gore or John Ker- probably rank as the best Stone work to date, Bush sup- ry. To our enemies, and even our allies in some cases, he porters will be left yelling “Boo” while the vast majority of has become a sort of cowboy willing to go it alone and take Americans who claim the country is on the wrong track on all comers in the Middle East. Yet it’s unclear how much could echo that famous Yale cheer, “Boola, boola.” his decision to invade Iraq was clouded or motivated by his With apologies to Hoosier-born Yalie Cole Porter of father’s involvement there and the failure of the rest of the Peru who penned some of his early works at the Connecti- world to support “getting Saddam” when the Persian Gulf cut campus, Bush’s legacy appears War erupted. History may be kinder to him if Iraq becomes to be one that will stand for “W” an important ally against Iran, but there is no guarantee. as a record percentage of Ameri- His legacy as a public speaker may be that he was cans think the country is on the the all-time worst, save for Calvin Coolidge who at least wrong track as he leaves office. knew going into 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. that to say noth- That may be a bit harsh ing or little was a safe way to go. Bush’s elocution skills, or considering he has had to deal lack of them, made “terror” and “nuclear” words with fewer with the worst attack on American syllables in the White House than before he arrived. soil since, and eclipsing, Pearl In the big picture of domestic policy, the Bush Harbor. The Iraq War, skyrocket- legacy will be one that proved the lack of government ing oil prices, a collapsing auto interference, the reluctance to veto legislation by a Repub- economy, corruption from World- lican Congress, and the downsizing of government into the Com and Enron to the latest $50 Department of Homeland Security were all philosophical billion Ponzi scheme to shock the positions that doomed his popularity. The federal deficit economy have all been part soared under a Re- of the perfect storm, along with what really was the publican Congress, perfect storm, Hurricane Katrina. That’s a lot on a prompting voters to presidential plate regardless of the president. replace the party once Yet Americans have come to expect the gov- referred to as “tax and ernment to respond, solve big problems and comfort spend” by its critics, their fears. When General Motors and Chrysler are to majorities in both warning of needed bailouts to cash flow for their houses. Lack of over- operations, the sentiment is anything but comforting sight on Wall Street with the electorate. led to bank closings The Bush legacy may very well come to nationwide. be known as the last of the well-capitalized candi- Lehman Brothers dates elected in part because of name recognition. became a casualty and Voters elected Bush in part because he was the high- banks such as National er ground moral alternative to the Clinton administration’s City and Wachovia found new owners. AIG, the world’s legacy. Al Gore happened to be in the wrong place at the largest insurance company, became a bailout poster child wrong time. Bush was the exact opposite, even though he because the government was the only insurance coverage lost the popular vote in the 2000 presidential election. The it had that it wouldn’t go under. event of 9/11 probably served to do more to rally Ameri- The Bush Legacy has yet to be written and is much cans around Bush than he could have done on his own. like the final scene of Stone’s “W” - even George W. will be And that may be exactly what foreign enemies had in mind leaving office wondering how history will one day portray - eight years of Bush. him. v Throughout the past four years in particular, a column I wrote before Bush was elected the first time Dave Kitchell is a veteran Indiana political writer comes to mind. Back when he was quizzed about the lead- who teaches journalism at Ball State University ers of other nations, and unable to respond with the right HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 12 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008

Tom Bevan & John McIntyre, cerns, or, this is a person that respects my issues, then the Real Clear Politics: In an exclusive Oval Office interview notion of small business entrepreneurship or lower taxes with RealClearPolitics last week, President George W. Bush or whatever becomes more palatable.” Overall, though, the sat down to offer his thoughts about this year’s elections. President said he thought Republicans paid a price politi- “I don’t think we got overwhelmed at the ballot box like cally over their handling of the issue. “I was very worried previous elections,” President Bush said about being views as ‘anti’-Latino - fair or about the November 4th results, contrast- unfair,” President Bush said. “That’s where the ing this year’s “defeat” to the “shellacking” debate left our party in certain sectors, and Republicans suffered in 1964. “On the other so it hurts.” v hand,” the President said, “I think we should learn some lessons from it.” Asked about the Sylvia Smith, Fort Wayne Journal significance of Republican strongholds like In- Gazette: On the surface, then, Reps. Mark diana and Virginia voting Democratic for the Souder and Mike Pence would seem to have first time in 44 years, President Bush credited a similar political approach and similar re- Barack Obama with running a good cam- gional economic concerns to help shape their paign, saying he “energized pockets of people and had an votes. Yet Souder supported the $14 billion bridge loans for organization that was capable of following up to get them the car makers last week while Pence opposed it. In fact, out to vote.” The President called Virginia a state in “tran- Souder was one of just 32 House Republicans who sup- sition,” saying that parties must be aware of the shifting ported the package. Like him, most of the other R’s who political landscape and “be able to take advantage of those backed the deal represent districts that have a significant shifts without changing philosophy.” President Bush went auto-industry base, be it an assembly plant, parts manu- on to say that “a lot of times after a period where there’s facturers or new car dealers. For Souder, it was a matter of been political success, people become complacent at the economic survival for northeast Indiana. Beyond the obvi- grassroots level and at the national level, for that matter.” ous issues of people whose livelihoods are directly connect- “I still think we’re a right-of-center country,” the President ed to the Big Three, Souder saw other factors: The General responded when asked whether the election offered proof Motors plant is the biggest taxpayer in Allen County. The that the ideological center of the country had shifted to the auto industry is the largest employer of people with dis- left. “I think most Americans want their government to abilities. GM workers are the largest cohort of local United be effective, results-oriented, efficient,” the President said. Way donors. If GM drowns, the social services in the region “They would like to pay as little a tax as possible. They would be strained dramatically and probably collapse. If GM want their military to be strong, viable, and effective. They drowns, the property taxes from the plant would have to want their public leaders to promote personal responsibility be made up somehow – either by higher taxes on every- by living responsible lives. Most people are - from the cul- one else or in service reductions: police, fire, ambulance, tural side, believe in an Almighty. The question is how you garbage collection, water service. You name it. Presumably, take those basic beliefs and explain them, either through Pence weighed those same considerations. He arrived at an policy or words, in a way where there’s common under- entirely opposite conclusion. Pence’s statements in opposi- standing.” We also asked the President how big of a prob- tion to the rescue plan focused on a wider perspective than lem the illegal immigration debate poses for the Republican what might happen in his Muncie-Anderson district. “It ex- Party, particularly in light of the election results in Colorado, poses the American taxpayer to more debt, fails to reorga- Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida. “If you’re labeled ‘anti’- nize the domestic auto manufacturers to ensure long-term people as a party, you will lose votes,” the President said success and does not fix the immediate credit crisis,” he flatly. “Parties have got to be positive. Parties have got to said. Souder’s explanation was Fort Wayne-centric: “My job be hopeful places. And the immigration debate in certain is to defend my region.” In addition, Pence is often more states caused us to be labeled ‘anti.’” The President sug- libertarian when it comes to economic and fiscal policy. gested that Republicans were failing to reach a threshold Souder is often more pragmatic. That’s why Pence often of trust with Latino voters that allowed the party’s mes- takes the view that government is the bottom of the pile in sage to resonate fully. “Caring about people is an integral terms of competence, ability and execution. He’ll say things part of getting people to believe in you. A guy says, ‘they like this: “Trusting a Washington bureaucrat, who probably don’t care about me, they don’t respect my heritage’ - you never tightened a lug nut, with fixing what ails the Ameri- can’t get their vote no matter what your philosophy is,” the can automotive industry is not the answer.” Souder will say President said. The President argued that once Republican things like this: “I’m skeptical of government but see its candidates can make that connection and get Latino voters uses.” v to trust that “this is a person that understands my con- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 13 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008 Roob replaces Feltman; supposed to begin, the group still had portive than most lawmakers of questions about how the government President George W. Bush during his Stiver resigns at BMV would deal with deepening financial final, largely unpopular year in office, challenges. Bayh was visiting a region according to an independent analysis INDIANAPOLIS - Gov. Mitch that has seen mass layoffs and plant of congressional votes (Gannett News Daniels today announced leadership shutdowns in the past two months, Service). Republican Sen. Richard changes at three executive agencies. most in the automotive and RV Lugar voted with the president more The changes are as follows: Nathan industries. General Motors Corp. and often than any other senator, ac- Feltman, Secretary of Commerce and Chrysler have said they’ll run out of cording to Congressional Quarterly. CEO of the Indiana Economic De- money in the coming weeks if Con- His support of Bush’s veto of farm velopment Corporation (IEDC), has gress doesn’t lend them $14 billion to program legislation helped make him informed the governor he will leave make it through to the inauguration of among the top Bush backers in a his position effective at the end of the a new president and seating of a new year when Bush’s positions prevailed year. Mitchell Roob, secretary of the Congress. Bayh said he doesn’t know less than half the time. Bush’s suc- Family and Social Services when the car companies would go cess rate was one of the lowest for a Administration (FSSA), has resigned broke without a government loan, but president since Congressional Quar- from his he said the U.S. Treasury was exam- terly started tracking rates in 1956. position with ining its books Wednesday. He said Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh’s backing the agency failure of the American automakers of a domestic surveillance program and will would cost Indiana 145,000 jobs. with retroactive legal protection for become the phone companies was the main reason Secretary he ranked third among Senate Demo- of Com- Think money woes crats in siding with the president on merce and votes on which the White House took CEO of the impacts Enerdel a position. Bayh was also one of only IEDC. Anne INDIANAPOLIS - Indianapolis two Democratic senators who voted Waltermann Murphy, currently FSSA battery maker EnerDel’s biggest cus- in September against a $56.2 billion deputy secretary and chief of staff, tomer has run out of cash four months stimulus package the White House has been named to replace Roob as after EnerDel began preparing to send also opposed. “The package included FSSA secretary Ron Stiver, commis- it high-tech car batteries (Indianapolis billions of dollars in deficit-financed sioner of the Bureau of Motor Vehicles Star). Think Global, an electric-car spending of questionable stimulative (BMV), has informed the governor he maker in Norway, halted production value, including $925 million for a U.S. will resign from his position at the end Monday after the Norwegian govern- polar icebreaker and $250 million for of the year. Andy Miller, the governor’s ment refused to bail out the 200-em- the next-generation NASA spacecraft,” director of the Office of Disaster ployee company struggling amid a Bayh spokesman Eric Kleiman said. Recovery and former director of the worldwide credit crunch. No layoffs In addition to backing Bush more Indiana State Department of Agricul- were announced at EnerDel. Plans often than most Democrats, Bayh also ture (ISDA), will become the new BMV now call for shifting production to crossed party lines more often this commissioner. supply two other undisclosed custom- ers. EnerDel employs about 130 hourly year than any other Senate Democrat. Bayh says Indiana could and salaried employees in Indianapolis He opposed his party on 35 percent of and Noblesville. EnerDel’s $70 million votes on which a majority of Demo- lose 140,000 jobs supply contract is in place and has not crats faced off against a majority of FORT WAYNE - U.S. Sen. been broken by Think executives, who Republicans. Bayh voted with his party Evan Bayh traveled to Fort Wayne on are considering resuming electric-car 65 percent of the time and with Bush Wednesday to tout his plan to make production before the end of March, 47 percent of the time. While Bayh Indiana the technological leader in said Ener1 Chief Executive Charles voted with Bush more often than the the automotive industry (Fort Wayne Gassenheimer in an e-mail. vast majority of Senate Democrats, Journal Gazette). But the autowork- his level of support for the president’s ers, parts suppliers and others who positions was lower than it had been assembled for the meeting were more Bayh, Lugar supported earlier in Bush’s presidency. Likewise concerned about the industry’s – and Bush more than others for Lugar, whose 87 percent support the economy’s – immediate future. As WASHINGTON - Indiana’s for Bush was tops in the Senate but the closed-door session was supposed two U.S. senators were more sup- below the 100 percent by Lugar during to end and a news conference was Bush’s first two years.