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Politics Indiana V15 N19 Thursday Dec. 18, 2008 Bush legacy: shock, awe & atrophy First drafts in history focus on war, energy, an economy on the brink By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - I was drawn to my March 13, 2003, pre-Iraq War shock and awe analysis as I set out to write my first draft of history of President George W. Bush. The first four sentences read: “This is brinksmanship on an epic scale. Within the next month there could possibly be, as the rock band REM might say, the ‘end of the world as we know it.’ President George W. Bush is taking a huge, calculated gamble, leading the nation into a war a majority of Americans appear to believe is morally correct. The danger lies in its execution, the retribution of our deficits topping $300 billion, an acknowledgment from the enemies, and the impact on an economy that has been Bush administration that his second round of tax cuts likely described as ‘the dagger aimed at the heart’ of the Bush wouldn’t have a near-term stimulus, and an ominous warn- administration.” ing from Warren Buffett about derivatives becoming ‘time But it was my seventh paragraph that in retro- spect is fascinating: “There have been warnings of budget See Page 3 Unrealized potential By MARK SCHOEFF JR. WASHINGTON - By two objective standards, Presi- dent Bush was a failure after eight years in office. He is leaving the country and his party in worse shape than he found them. History may judge him more gen- “I feel an obligation to my erously. It’s ridiculous, of course, to try to draw a conclusion before he’s even successor. I don’t think it’s good left the White House. In fact, he has pretty much avoided being a lame duck. policy to dump on him a major More so than any president in recent memory, he is wielding power right up catastrophe on his first day in to the moment he has to step down. Although we can’t yet draw a con- office.” clusion about Bush’s tenure, it’s not too early to point out missed opportunities. - President Bush on the Big 3 HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008 We can start with his inherent politi- traordinary opportunity to reach across Howey Politics cal skills and his failure to use them the aisle and draw in Democrats as for his - and the country’s - benefit. permanent allies on a range of issues. Indiana Bush’s electoral success He could have cemented relationships is a nonpartisan news- has been attributed in part to his with then-Republican chairmen of key letter based in Indianapolis ability to connect with people. That committees. He could have united the may sound strange for someone country in a way that obliterated the and published by NewsLink whose approval ratings have not red-blue schism. been north of 40 percent in years. Instead, after a brief period Inc. It was founded in But Bush, certainly more so than his of comity, the Bush-Rove tactics of 1994 in Fort Wayne. competitors for office, former Vice divide and conquer took over. Repub- President Al Gore and Sen. John licans gained seats in the mid-term Kerry, was seen as someone that election of 2002 because Bush and Brian A. Howey, publisher voters would like to meet for a drink Rove portrayed Democrats as weak on Mark Schoeff Jr., after work. security. Washington writer Indeed, Bush consistently That was the beginning of the demonstrates a warm personality end of any hope that Bush would follow Jack E. Howey, editor and sense of hu- through on an elec- Beverly Phillips, associate mor. He doesn’t tion promise in 2000 editor and subscription hold many press to change the tone management conferences. in Washington. In- But when he stead, Republicans Subscriptions: does meet with became even more $350 annually HPI via e-mail; reporters, he has combative. That $550 annually HPI & HPI Daily an easygoing attitude contributed rapport that so to the hubris that Wire. far has eluded caused the party Call 317-627-6746 President-elect to lose its congres- Barack Obama. President Bush with U.S. Rep. Chris sional majorities in Also un- Chocola in 2004. 2006 and to drop Howey Politics Indiana like Obama, Bush even more seats 6255 North Evanston has shown that this year. Indianapolis, IN 46220 he can laugh at himself. The latest What if Bush had embraced evidence is his ability to roll with the Congress after Sept. 11? What if he Contact Us: punches when a reporter in Baghdad had really worked hard at the relation- threw shoes at him. ship? Even if he kept Democrats at www.howeypolitics.com These skills have probably arm’s length, he could have at least [email protected] served Bush well when he’s met listened to leaders in his own party, like Main Office: 317-202-0210. with members of Congress. Sure, Sen. Richard Lugar. the Democratic majorities on Capitol Such an approach might Howey’s Mobile: 317-506-0883. Hill attack Bush every day. But when have created an atmosphere that Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. he meets with members in small would have helped build Rove’s dream; Washington: 202-256-5822. groups, it’s not hard to imagine that a Republican advantage in Congress Business Office: 317-631-9450. he’s charming. that would last for a generation or That’s why the Bush ap- more. ©2008, Howey Politics proach to Congress - and politics in But in the end, it was the Hill Indiana. All rights reserved. general - over the last eight years Republicans who revolted against Bush. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, is inexplicable. He and his former Although he was able to bend Demo- faxing or reproducing in any form, top adviser, Karl Rove, adopted an crats to his will until his final days in us-versus-them mentality. They said office on everything from an Iraq time in whole or part, is a violation of to Congress and to the world: You’re line to the parameters of a financial federal law without permission from either with us or against us. rescue package, Bush lost control of his the publisher. After the terrorist attacks of own party. Sept. 11, 2001, Bush had an ex- Republicans ultimately scuttled HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Dec. 18, 2008 such Bush priorities as comprehensive immigration reform. new strategy seems to be producing results in Iraq, flying Bush’s divide-and-conquer proclivity also was a staple of shoes notwithstanding. his 2004 campaign. He was perhaps one of the weakest During his second term, he made course correc- incumbent presidents ever re-elected, but he did it by po- tions in the way he dealt with the world. His administration larizing the electorate and getting his base to the polls. became more multilateral and cooperative with foreign al- What if he had run a campaign more like Obama’s, lies and more willing to listen to critics at home and over- which was basically constructive and asked people to join seas. In fact, Bush appointed a defense secretary, Robert a cause? Bush might have laid the groundwork to ensure Gates, who drew so much bipartisan praise that Obama is that a Republican would succeed him in the Oval Office. keeping him in the Cabinet. Bush may mangle his syntax, but he is a smart Clearly, Bush had the political skills to create a man and a savvy politician. He made a huge mistake by lasting positive legacy. Instead, he chose to fight when he failing to prepare properly for the aftermath of the Iraq should have reached out. Now we have to wait for history war. But he showed that he can overcome errors. Today, a to determine how much damage he did. v the U.S. is morphing the other way. We have witnessed the Bush legacy greatest expansion of entitlements since the Great Society. The budget has gone from a $431 billion surplus in January bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the eco- 2001 to at $455 billion deficit on Oct. 15. nomic system’ and ‘financial weapons of mass destruction, In July 2005, Bush spoke at Indiana Black Expo, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially celebrating a rise in African-American home ownership. lethal’ to the banking system.” “That’s good for America,” Bush told 3,000 gathered at the The seventh paragraph was prescient. Few Ameri- RCA Dome. Embedded here - and certainly not constricted cans were worried about derivatives on the eve of the to any particular race - were Iraq War. The final Bush years the seeds of another disaster, became a nexus where the Oil the mortgage meltdown. This Presidency, the loosened regu- was Bush’s “ownership soci- lations on Wall Street, and the ety” that found a deregulated utter lack of an energy policy Wall Street and a snoozing taking into account national Securities and Exchange security implications, became Commission presiding over the perfect storm that howls mortgages lent to people as Bush and Cheney prepare who couldn’t afford them, their exits. There are now $7.5 then bundled and sold into billion in funded and unfunded what would become “toxic” securities. The Washington debt that now requires a greenback printing press is $700 billion taxpayer bailout roaring. Because of a lack of with no guarantees. While an energy policy and a federal President Bush and President Elect Obama at the White House the seeds of this deregula- mandate for the Big 3 to pro- in November.