Geo-Information Science and Remote Sensing Thesis Report GIRS-2018
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Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing Thesis Report GIRS-2018-29 Analysis of the spatial conditions and its context- dependent sensitivity for a vertical farm’s location decision The municipality of Amsterdam as a case study Sven Ruigrok 01-07-2018 i Analysis of the spatial conditions and its context- dependent sensitivity for a vertical farm’s location decision The municipality of Amsterdam as a case study Sven Ruigrok 920213714030 Supervisor: dr. ir. Ron van Lammeren A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the degree of Master of Science at Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Netherlands. 01-07-2018 Utrecht, The Netherlands Thesis code number: GRS-80436 Thesis Report: GIRS-2018 -29 Wageningen University and Research Centre Msc Urban Environmental Management (MUE) Laboratory of Geo-Information Science and Remote Sensing ii Foreword This thesis is executed as part of the master program Urban Environment Management (MUE) at the Wageningen University and Research. As a track within my studies I chose geo-information science, part of the GIRS chair group in Wageningen. During my studies of MUE at the Wageningen University I specialised in food and agriculture in the urban context. This thesis is an attempt to combine the work fields of urban sustainability, food provisioning and geo-information science. For the work I spend the first half of the thesis work venturing into the field of vertical farming, and the second part of it was focused on taking the findings to the field of geo-information science. I want to thank Ron van Lammeren as my supervisor and for letting me discuss all aspects of the thesis including the things outside of the domain of geo-information science. I also want to thank John Stuiver for providing insights into the use of different methods to come to a result for my case and for validating my approach on it. Furthermore, I want to thank the interviewees that were willing to talk with me about the concept of vertical farming and the spatial aspects it might hold. Their input has proven to be essential for the analysis. I hope my research can contribute to the debate around vertical farming and can provide insights into the importance of spatial conditions for a vertical farm’s location decision. Hopefully, it is both an interesting read for those familiar with geo-information science as well as those more affiliated with vertical farming. iii Abstract The rise in urban population and increasing stress on agricultural land in combination with the advancement in technology of indoor farming have sparked the idea of producing food in urban areas in vertical farms. Decision making of vertical farm location is done without a proper consideration of spatial conditions that influences its success. Research on the location, or spatial characteristics of vertical farming is virtually absent. This study is the first endeavour of a location analysis for vertical farming. A literature and interview analysis are performed to examine criteria that are of importance. Twelve criteria were found that are valid in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and are used as an input for a spatial GIS (Geographical Information System) based Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). Five scenarios that can motivate decision-makers were formulated. The MCA led to suitability maps for vertical farming according to the scenarios. Vacant buildings and lots are used exemplary to demonstrate how the suitability maps can help in guiding the decision-making process. The scenarios show how different approaches to vertical farming can lead to a different suitability and decision of a vertical farm’s location. Improved understanding of the impact of spatial criteria is achieved and the use of these criteria gives valuable insight into the context-dependent suitability of vertical farms. Applying the same strategy to another study area needs careful re-assessment of the criteria there and their overall validity. Results are affected by the availability and quality of the (spatial) data. iv Contents 1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________ 1 1.1 General background __________________________________________________________ 1 1.2 The emergence of vertical farming ______________________________________________ 1 1.3 Problem definition ___________________________________________________________ 2 1.5 Reading guide _______________________________________________________________ 2 2 Criteria Analysis ___________________________________________________________ 3 1.4 Research objectives __________________________________________________________ 3 2.1 Review motive ______________________________________________________________ 4 2.1.1 Vertical farming definition ___________________________________________________________ 4 2.2 Criteria analysis – Methodology ________________________________________________ 6 2.2.1 The identification of stakeholders _____________________________________________________ 6 2.2.2 Interviews ________________________________________________________________________ 6 2.3 The case of Amsterdam _______________________________________________________ 6 2.4 Criteria analysis – Review ______________________________________________________ 7 2.4.1 The crop __________________________________________________________________________ 8 2.4.2 Logistics _________________________________________________________________________ 10 2.4.3 Circularity ________________________________________________________________________ 11 2.4.4 Labour __________________________________________________________________________ 15 2.4.5 Consuming market ________________________________________________________________ 15 2.4.6 Social embedding__________________________________________________________________ 16 2.4.7 Political parties ___________________________________________________________________ 17 2.4.8 Rental prices _____________________________________________________________________ 17 2.5 Criteria analysis - Conclusions _________________________________________________ 18 3 Location analysis _________________________________________________________ 19 3.1 Review location analysis _____________________________________________________ 19 3.1.1 MCA for spatial-temporal decision making _____________________________________________ 19 3.1.2 Soft and hard criteria _______________________________________________________________ 20 3.2 Methodology – pre-processing ________________________________________________ 20 3.2.1 Software package for the analysis ____________________________________________________ 21 3.2.2 Data collection ____________________________________________________________________ 21 3.2.3 Data transformation _______________________________________________________________ 22 3.2.4 Standardisation of criteria ___________________________________________________________ 22 3.3 Data pre-processing _________________________________________________________ 23 3.3.1 Circularity ________________________________________________________________________ 23 3.3.2 Logistics _________________________________________________________________________ 26 3.3.3 Economic ________________________________________________________________________ 32 3.3.4 Social ___________________________________________________________________________ 34 v 3.4 Methodology – Processing ____________________________________________________ 36 3.4.1 Analytical Hierarchy Process _________________________________________________________ 36 3.4.2 Scenario application _______________________________________________________________ 37 3.4.3 Weighing of the individual criteria ____________________________________________________ 37 3.4.4 Standardisation of the suitability outcome. _____________________________________________ 39 3.4.5 Suitability per district ______________________________________________________________ 39 3.4.6 Method assumptions _______________________________________________________________ 39 3.4.7 Location selection, qualification and its production capability. _____________________________ 40 3.5 Results – Suitability of vertical farming in Amsterdam ______________________________ 42 3.5.1 Suitability of Amsterdam ____________________________________________________________ 42 3.5.2 Vacant buildings and lots ___________________________________________________________ 43 3.5.3 Best locations for a vertical farm _____________________________________________________ 44 3.5.4 How many people can be fed? _______________________________________________________ 44 3.5.5 Suitability per district ______________________________________________________________ 46 3.5.6 Solitary businesses and clusters ______________________________________________________ 47 3.5.7 Bajes Kwartier a good pilot location? __________________________________________________ 49 4 Scenario analysis _________________________________________________________ 50 4.1 Sensitivity of the model ______________________________________________________ 50 4.2 Methodology – Scenario Analysis ______________________________________________ 50 4.2.1 The weight distribution in the scenarios _______________________________________________ 50 4.2.2 Comparing the number of suitable locations ____________________________________________ 51 4.3 Results ____________________________________________________________________ 51 4.3.1 Consistent scoring areas ____________________________________________________________ 53 4.3.2 Suitable areas compared ____________________________________________________________