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Twentyci Property & Homemover Report TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report – Q3 2017 Information embargoed until Wednesday 4th October 2017 at 00:01 Welcome to the latest TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report, a quarterly review of the UK property market. As a life event data company, TwentyCi has exclusive access to more than 29 billion qualified data points across the whole of the property sector – for both property purchases and rental. In addition to tracking sales momentum, this ‘state of the nation’ report provides unique insight into the people behind the numbers, creating a picture of the demographic, regional and socio-economic factors impacting the housing market. With a 99.6% view of both the property sales and rental markets, the TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report is the most comprehensive factual source of home moving data available. Key take-outs for Q3 2017 • Overall the volatile market is starting to stabilise with exchanges up 15.2% year-on-year and house prices increasing by 1.5% for the year. However London experiences lower growth in exchanges than the rest of the UK at 9% year-on-year, and prices drop by 8.4% in the Capital – one of the key reasons behind the overall fall in price for the market. • While the majority of market activity is for properties under £250k and with sub £50k household incomes, the biggest growth in transactions this quarter has been among buyers in higher income bands purchasing higher value properties. • Online-only estate agents’ market share increases by 19% this quarter. All data is based on Q3 2017 versus Q3 2016 year-on-year comparisons unless otherwise stated. Analysis of property buyers is based on demographic overlay data versus individual property-based data triggers. TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report – Q3 2017 Overview Exchanges up year-on-year: While exchanges and new instructions are down by 6.2% and 3.5% respectively for the quarter – not unusual for the time of year due to the summer lull – they Bradshaw said: “The 8.4% fall in house have increased year-on-year. Exchanges are up 15.2% prices in the Capital compared to Q2 is compared to the same period last year, suggesting that significant. This may be a side effect of the unpredictable market that emerged in the wake of Brexit, which is likely to have had more the Brexit vote is starting to settle down. Average house impact on London as an international prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year from £289k to £293k, market. It seems that the London property but have fallen by 1.9% in the last quarter. bubble may not have yet burst, but it is certainly under strain.” Colin Bradshaw, Chief Customer Officer at TwentyCI, said: “Last year’s volatile Growth driven by the top end of the market: market is starting to subside as people begin to experience ‘Brexit fatigue’ and Although this quarter has seen 6.2% fewer home moves are getting on with their lives. The drop overall, there has been an increase in the number of in house prices compared to the previous exchanges for homemovers aged 66+ and also those in quarter is likely to be due in part to the the higher income brackets. The latter correlates with continued growth this quarter for sales of properties over slowing economy, and concerns about the £750k. potential rise of interest rates on top of the usual summer slowdown.” Bradshaw said: “As the rise of the more affluent and older home owner continues, conversely we are seeing real evidence of the Millennial squeeze. Homebuyers aged Independent property market analyst and 18 to 35 have fallen by 13% compared to commentator, Kate Faulkner, explained: last year.” “It was predicted and we are seeing in the data a slowdown in price growth year on year. This isn’t a surprise; it follows double digit annual growth in economically strong Online continues to gain market share: areas which is now abating. This, together The shift towards using online-only estate agents is with the Brexit shock of last year reducing continuing resulting in a 19% increase in market share confidence in the short term, is likely to year-on-year. However, they still represent just over 5% be the reason why exchanges are actually of the market overall. up year-on-year, despite a slower market. What we also tend to see in a less active market is that buyers and sellers tend to Bradshaw said: “The growth in online be more serious and less voyeuristic. What estate agents is testament to the power will be interesting is to see if this is still of advertising! We’ve seen the big players the case in the next quarter, or if we end spending huge sums on TV and radio the year with slower growth and fewer promotion. As the concept of online estate transactions.” agents matures and consumers see more of their boards on display it is likely that more people will see them as a credible Greater London and South fare worst: alternative. That said, the online-only Scotland and Wales have seen the greatest growth in market is still a very small proportion of exchanges with 30% uplift year-on-year. The South West the overall market so I doubt established has seen the steepest decline in exchanges (-6% YOY), agents are quaking in their boots yet while exchanges have risen in the South East and Greater – but now should not be the time for London at a lower rate than the rest of the country complacency either.” (7% and 9% YOY respectively). Interestingly, the East of England is the only region to buck the summer slowdown with 6% growth for the quarter. TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report – Q3 2017 UK National Trends The housing market is starting to stabilise with exchanges up 15.2% and house prices increasing by 1.5% year-on-year. All of UK UK without London 150000 120000 100000 261k 261k 120000 Exchanged Exchanged 80000 90000 60000 60000 261k Exchanged40000 properties64k Exchanged properties64k Exchanged Fallen Fallen Fallen throughthrough properties Fallen throughthrough properties 30000 Withdrawn properties Withdrawn properties SSTC20000 properties SSTC properties 09/2016 10/2016 11/2016 12/2016 01/2017 02/2017 03/2017 04/2017 05/2017 06/2017 07/2017 08/2017 09/2017 0 09/2016 10/2016 11/2016 12/2016 01/2017 02/2017 03/2017 04/2017 05/2017 06/2017 07/2017 08/2017 09/2017 0 261k 64k 198k 198k Exchanged Fallen Withdrawn Withdrawn through Q3 2017 Exchanged properties Exchanged properties 261k 64kFallen through 198kproperties 271k Fallen through properties 271k Exchanged Fallen Withdrawn SSTC SSTC throughWithdrawn properties Withdrawn properties SSTC properties SSTC properties Exchanged properties Average64kFallen House through Price properties198k 271k Fallen Withdrawn SSTC House throughpricesWithdrawn have propertiesrisen 1.5% on year-on-year SSTC properties 500000 The drop in house prices for this 370K Exchanged properties 352K 350K quarter has been led predominantly Fallen through400000 properties198k 271k by declines seen in London in Withdrawn propertiesWithdrawn SSTC particular. Overall, while prices are up SSTC properties300000 for the year at +1.5% growth, the big increases we have seen in recent years 299K 293K are not currently in evidence. 200000 289K Exchanged properties Fallen through properties 271k 100000 Withdrawn properties SSTC SSTC properties 0 Q3 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Exchanges New Instructions TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report – Q3 2017 Who’s behind the positive change in the housing market? Homemover Segments TwentyCi’s data tracks homemovers as they make their way through the property buying (or rental) process. Known as the ‘Homemover Wave’, it is broken down into five specific stages triggered by activity such as online property searches, surveys and EPC reports. Homemover Cycle Segments Q3 2017 308,104 286,820 294,809 280,084 259,732 Number of households Move Maker Move Planner Mover Nest Builder Home Maker First listing your Making an offer on Approaching the Just Recently house as For Sale your new home time of move moved moved Q3 has seen fewer people entering the homemover journey (Move Makers) than last quarter and more people coming to the end of their homemover journey (the Home Maker stage). This is reflective of the summer lull. TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report – Q3 2017 Household Income Band Number of Exchanged Properties by Income Band Q3 2017 When comparing Q3 2017 to Q3 50000 2016, there has been an increase -5% -9% in exchanges across all household 45K -10% 43K % Difference vs Q2 2017 40000 income bands. However when 39K comparing performance against Q2 -5% -2% 2017, there was an increase in volume 30000 30K 28K of properties exchanged only amongst -9% -5% those earning £100k+. Nonetheless, 20000 23K 20K it is those earning less than £50k -9% 1% that still account for the bulk of the NUMBER OF EXCHANGES 14K 13K 10000 market. 6% 0 6K <£15K £15K - 19,999 £20K - 29,999 £30K -39,999 £40K - 49,999 £50K - 59,999 £60K - 69,999 £70K - 99,999 £100K -149,999 £150 + Property Price Band and Property Types The last quarter has seen growth for There has been significant movement in properties priced between £750k - £2m, the type of properties exchanging. Flats and also at the bottom end of the market have seen 42% fewer exchanges, whereas – properties valued at less than £50k. semi-detached houses have seen an 88% increase in exchanges in Q3 comparing year-on-year. Number of Exchanged Properties PropertyNumber types of Exchanged Properties by Price Band Q3 2017 Q3 2017by Property Type Q3 2017 50000 80000 % Difference vs Q3 2016 -12% 65k -7% % Difference vs Q2 2017 40k70000 SEMI 68% 44K FLAT 88% 69K 42K DETACHED 68K 40000 64K 60000 16% 56K -4% -3% 50000 30000 -16% 30K 31K -5%
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