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Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Report Irrigation Rehabilitation Project (RRP KAZ 50387) Supplementary Document 21: CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT REPORT Kazakhstan Irrigation Rehabilitation Sector Project: Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Report December 2018 Authors: Peter Droogers Murari Lal Client: Asian Development Bank FutureWater Wageningen, The Netherlands www.futurewater.nl and RMSI Pvt. Ltd. A-8, Sector 18 Noida, India 201301 www.rmsi.com TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY II I. PROJECT BACKGROUND AND AREA 1 A. BACKGROUND 1 B. KAZAKHSTAN CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES, POLICIES AND INVESTMENTS 3 II. CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS AND EXTREMES 4 A. KAZAKHSTAN’S MEAN CLIMATE & SEASONAL VARIABILITY 4 1. General 4 2. Inter-annual Climate Variability in Kazakhstan and project provinces 7 3. Hydro-meteorological Disasters in Kazakhstan 13 B. SIMULATION OF FUTURE CLIMATE OF KAZAKHSTAN & PROJECT PROVINCES 14 1. Future Climate for Kazakhstan and project provinces 14 C. UNCERTAINTIES IN FUTURE PROJECTIONS 39 D. SUMMARY - KEY FINDINGS ON CLIMATE CHANGE 40 III. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREMES 44 A. ASSESSMENT TOOL WEAP 44 1. Background WEAP 44 2. WEAP Input Data 45 B. SCENARIOS ANALYZED 50 C. IMPACT AT PROVINCE LEVEL 50 1. Overall 50 2. East Kazakhstan 54 3. Karaghandy 56 4. Kyzlorda 58 5. Zhambyl 61 D. IMPACT AT SUB-PROJECT LEVEL 63 1. Methodology 63 2. East Kazakhstan subprojects 67 3. Karaghandy subprojects 70 4. Kyzlorda subprojects 74 5. Zhambyl subprojects 78 IV. ADAPTION AND INVESTMENTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE 83 A. ADAPTATION NEEDS AND BASIC PRINCIPLES 83 B. POTENTIAL ADAPTATION AND INVESTMENT MEASURES 84 C. SPECIFIC ADAPTATIONS AND INVESTMENT ACTIONS 88 D. CONCLUDING REMARKS 90 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 92 VI. APPENDIX: PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE EXTREMES AS INFERRED FROM SELECTED CORE CLIMATIC INDICATORS 94 A. CLIMATIC INDICATORS 94 B. CHANGE IN NUMBER OF HOT DAYS 94 C. CHANGES IN NUMBER OF FROST DAYS 98 D. ANNUAL MEAN CHANGES IN NUMBER OF DRY DAYS 100 E. CHANGES IN NUMBER OF WET / VERY WEY DAYS 101 F. CHANGES IN MAXIMUM RAINFALL INTENSITY 103 VII. APPENDIX: INTRODUCTION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS USED IN THIS CVRA STUDY 109 A. MODEL GENERATED CLIMATE DATA 109 1. General 109 2. Bias Corrections to the Model Generated Datasets 110 3. The Earth System Model Datasets 111 A.2 DATA ANALYSIS TOOLS 112 4. Data and Choice of Metrics 113 5. Validation of Global Climate Models to Baseline Observed (CRU, UK) Climatology 114 TABLES TABLE II-1: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AREA AVERAGED OVER KAZAKHSTAN AT THREE TIME SLICES UNDER RCP 8.5 AND RCP4.5 PATHWAYS 15 TABLE II-2: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AREA AVERAGED OVER THE FOUR PROJECT PROVINCES OF KAZAKHSTAN DURING 2020S FOR RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 22 TABLE II-3: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AREA AVERAGED OVER THE FOUR PROJECT PROVINCES OF KAZAKHSTAN DURING 2050S FOR RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 23 TABLE II-4: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AREA AVERAGED OVER THE FOUR PROJECT PROVINCES OF KAZAKHSTAN DURING 2080S FOR RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 24 TABLE II-5: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AREA AVERAGED OVER THE FOUR PROJECT PROVINCES OF KAZAKHSTAN DURING 2020S FOR RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 25 TABLE II-6: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AREA AVERAGED OVER THE FOUR PROJECT PROVINCES OF KAZAKHSTAN DURING 2050S FOR RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 25 TABLE II-7: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AREA AVERAGED OVER THE FOUR PROJECT PROVINCES OF KAZAKHSTAN DURING 2080S FOR RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 26 TABLE II-8: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AREA AVERAGED OVER KAZAKHSTAN DURING THE THREE TIME SLICES FOR RCP 8.5 AND 4.5 PATHWAYS 27 TABLE II-9: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER KAZAKHSTAN AT THREE TIME SLICES FOR RCP 8.5 AND RCP 4.5 PATHWAYS 28 TABLE II-10: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER PROJECT PROVINCES DURING 2020S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 35 TABLE II-11: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER PROJECT PROVINCES DURING 2050S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 36 TABLE II-12: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER PROJECT PROVINCES DURING 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 37 TABLE II-13: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER PROJECT PROVINCES DURING 2020S UNDER RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 38 TABLE II-14: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER PROJECT PROVINCES DURING 2050S UNDER RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 38 TABLE II-15: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER PROJECT PROVINCES DURING 2080S UNDER RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 39 TABLE III-1: SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EAST KAZAKHSTAN PROVINCE 56 TABLE III-2: SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON KARAGHANDY PROVINCE 58 TABLE III-3: SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON KYZLORDA PROVINCE 61 TABLE III-4: SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ZHAMBYL PROVINCE 63 TABLE III-5: AVERAGE EXPECTED DATE OF PEAK RUNOFF UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGES IN ANNUAL AVERAGE RUNOFF COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SITUATION (1961-1990). RESULT OBTAINED USING THE HYDRO-CLIMATE MODEL WEAP 68 TABLE III-6: AVERAGE EXPECTED DATE OF PEAK RUNOFF UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGES IN ANNUAL AVERAGE RUNOFF COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SITUATION (1961-1990) [RESULT OBTAINED USING THE HYDRO-CLIMATE MODEL WEAP] 71 TABLE III-7: AVERAGE EXPECTED DATE OF PEAK RUNOFF UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGES IN ANNUAL AVERAGE RUNOFF COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SITUATION (1961-1990) [RESULT OBTAINED USING THE HYDRO-CLIMATE MODEL WEAP] 75 TABLE III-8: AVERAGE EXPECTED DATE OF PEAK RUNOFF UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGES IN ANNUAL AVERAGE RUNOFF COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SITUATION (1961-1990) [RESULT OBTAINED USING THE HYDRO-CLIMATE MODEL WEAP] 79 TABLE IV-1: DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION AS FUNCTION OF THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALE AND THE MAIN SECTORS INVOLVED [ADAPTED FROM HTTP://WWW.CIFOR.ORG/] 84 TABLE VI-1: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED NUMBER OF HOT DAYS OVER KAZAKHSTAN AT 2020S, 2050S AND 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 AND RCP 4.5 PATHWAYS 95 TABLE VI-2: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN NUMBER OF FROST DAYS OVER KAZAKHSTAN AT 2020S, 2050S AND 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 AND RCP 4.5 PATHWAYS 97 TABLE VI-3: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN NUMBER OF FROST DAYS OVER KAZAKHSTAN AND THE FOUR PROJECT PROVINCES AT 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 98 TABLE VI-4: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN PEAK PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVER KAZAKHSTAN AT 2020S, 2050S AND 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 AND RCP 4.5 PATHWAYS 104 TABLE VI-5: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN PEAK PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVER EAST KAZAKHSTAN PROVINCE AT 2020S, 2050S AND 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 AND RCP 4.5 PATHWAYS 105 TABLE VI-6: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN PEAK PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVER KARAGHANDY PROVINCE AT 2020S, 2050S AND 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 AND RCP 4.5 PATHWAYS 105 TABLE VI-7: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN PEAK PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVER KYZLORDA PROVINCE AT 2020S, 2050S AND 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 AND RCP 4.5 PATHWAYS 106 TABLE VI-8: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN PEAK PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVER ZHAMBYL PROVINCE AT 2020S, 2050S AND 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 AND RCP 4.5 PATHWAYS 106 TABLE VII-1: LIST OF CORE CLIMATE INDICATORS 113 TABLE VII-2: BASELINE CLIMATOLOGY OF AVERAGE MONTHLY MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (DEG C) OVER KAZAKHSTAN AS OBSERVED (CRU CLIMATOLOGY) AND SIMULATED BY CLIMATE MODEL ENSEMBLE (RMSE IS THE ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR BETWEEN THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES) 117 TABLE VII-3: BASELINE CLIMATOLOGY OF AVERAGE MONTHLY MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (DEG C) OVER KAZAKHSTAN AS OBSERVED (CRU CLIMATOLOGY) AND SIMULATED BY MODEL ENSEMBLE (RMSE IS THE ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR BETWEEN THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED MINIMUM SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES) 118 TABLE VII-4: BASELINE CLIMATOLOGY OF AVERAGE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (MM) OVER KAZAKHSTAN AS OBSERVED (CRU CLIMATOLOGY) AND SIMULATED BY CLIMATE MODEL ENSEMBLES (RMSE IS THE ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR BETWEEN THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED PRECIPITATION) 119 FIGURES FIGURE I-1: MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES OVER KAZAKHSTAN IN 2015 ARE WARMER RELATIVE TO 1961-1990 MEAN CLIMATOLOGY (SOURCE: RSE “KAZHYDROMET”, 2016) 2 FIGURE II-1: GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION OF KAZAKHSTAN AND ITS FOUR PROJECT PROVINCES WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE SEA LEVEL 6 FIGURE II-2: THE 16 GROUPS OF THE IN 245 SCHEMES WHERE THE PROJECT WILL TAKE PLACE 7 FIGURE II-3: AVERAGE ANNUAL DISTRIBUTION (%) OF REPORTED DISASTERS IN KAZAKHSTAN (SOURCE: GFDRR, 2016) 13 FIGURE II-4: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF PROJECTED CHANGE IN ANNUAL MEAN SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE WITH RESPECT TO BASELINE PERIOD (1961-90) OVER KAZAKHSTAN BY 2020S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 16 FIGURE II-5: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF PROJECTED CHANGE IN ANNUAL MEAN SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE WITH RESPECT TO BASELINE PERIOD (1961-90) OVER KAZAKHSTAN BY 2050S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 17 FIGURE II-6: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF PROJECTED CHANGE IN ANNUAL MEAN SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE WITH RESPECT TO BASELINE PERIOD (1961-90) OVER
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