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Measuring Umpire Consistency David J. Hunter January 11, 2018 Assumptions/Motivations I Consistency is more important than conformity. I A consistent zone need not be rectangular, but should be convex. I Consistency within a game is important. I Different zones for LH and RH batters are OK. I One egregiously bad call is worse/as bad as several marginally bad calls. Assumptions/Motivations I Consistency is more important than conformity. I A consistent zone need not be rectangular, but should be convex. I Consistency within a game is important. I Different zones for LH and RH batters are OK. I One egregiously bad call is worse/as bad as several marginally bad calls. Assumptions/Motivations I Consistency is more important than conformity. I A consistent zone need not be rectangular, but should be convex. I Consistency within a game is important. I Different zones for LH and RH batters are OK. I One egregiously bad call is worse/as bad as several marginally bad calls. Assumptions/Motivations I Consistency is more important than conformity. I A consistent zone need not be rectangular, but should be convex. I Consistency within a game is important. I Different zones for LH and RH batters are OK. I One egregiously bad call is worse/as bad as several marginally bad calls. Assumptions/Motivations I Consistency is more important than conformity. I A consistent zone need not be rectangular, but should be convex. I Consistency within a game is important. I Different zones for LH and RH batters are OK. I One egregiously bad call is worse/as bad as several marginally bad calls. Define established ball and strike zones gid_2017_07_19_sdnmlb_colmlb_1 gid_2017_07_19_sdnmlb_colmlb_1 vs. right−handed batters vs. left−handed batters 5 5 4 4 3 3 normedpz normedpz 2 2 1 1 0 0 −2 −1 0 1 2 −2 −1 0 1 2 px px Established Strike Zone: Convex Hull Let Hl denote the open half-plane bounded by the line l. The convex hull of a set of points P is the set \ c S = Hl {Hl |Hl ∩P=∅} When P contains the locations of all called strikes, S is the established strike zone. Established Strike Zone: Convex Hull gid_2017_07_19_sdnmlb_colmlb_1 gid_2017_07_19_sdnmlb_colmlb_1 vs. right−handed batters vs. left−handed batters 5 5 4 4 3 3 normedpz normedpz 2 2 1 1 0 0 −2 −1 0 1 2 −2 −1 0 1 2 px px Established Ball Zone: α-Shape? 2 For α > 0, let Bx,α denote the open ball in R of radius α centered 2 2 at the point x. Given a set of points P ⊂ R , two points p1, p2 ∈ R are α-neighbors if p1 and p2 lie on the boundary of some Bx,α such that Bx,α ∩ P = ∅. The α-shape is the straight line graph formed by drawing line segments between α-neighbors. I α-neighbors are close together but next to big empty regions. I The α-shape is the outline of the points P. I Does not need to be convex or even simply-connected. I For large α, the α-shape is the boundary of the convex hull. Established Ball Zone: α-Shape? gid_2017_07_19_sdnmlb_colmlb_1 gid_2017_07_19_sdnmlb_colmlb_1 vs. right−handed batters vs. left−handed batters 5 5 4 4 3 3 normedpz normedpz 2 2 1 1 0 0 −2 −1 0 1 2 −2 −1 0 1 2 px px Established Ball Zone: α-Hull 2 For α > 0, let Bx,α denote the open ball in R of radius α centered at the point x. Given a set of points P ⊂ R2, the α-hull of P is the set \ c X = Bx,α {Bx,α|Bx,α∩P=∅} When P contains the locations of all called balls, X is the established ball zone. T c I Approaches convex hull S = {Hl |Hl ∩P=∅} Hl as α → ∞. I Intuitively: hole punch. I May not be simply connected for smallish α. Established Ball Zone: α-Hull gid_2017_07_19_sdnmlb_colmlb_1 gid_2017_07_19_sdnmlb_colmlb_1 vs. right−handed batters vs. left−handed batters 5 5 4 4 3 3 normedpz normedpz 2 2 1 1 0 0 −2 −1 0 1 2 −2 −1 0 1 2 px px Inconsistency Index Metric S = established strike zone (convex hull of strikes) X = established ball zone (α-hull of balls) balls in S + strikes in X inconsistency = total calls I This is a per game metric. I Compute separately for right-hand batters and left-hand batters and add. Inconsistency Index Metric S = established strike zone (convex hull of strikes) X = established ball zone (α-hull of balls) balls in S + strikes in X inconsistency = total calls I This is a per game metric. I Compute separately for right-hand batters and left-hand batters and add. Choosing α I α too small: Ball zone has lots of components I α too large: Seems unfair to umpires I α way too large: Ball zone becomes simply connected I α = 0.5539: 1/3 rule-book zone width Correlations: observations Games ZoneSize Accuracy BBrate Krate Incon Games 1.00 -0.05 0.05 -0.03 0.30 -0.02 ZoneSize -0.05 1.00 -0.49 -0.39 0.09 0.34 Accuracy 0.05 -0.49 1.00 -0.01 0.27 -0.65 BBrate -0.03 -0.39 -0.01 1.00 -0.24 0.09 Krate 0.30 0.09 0.27 -0.24 1.00 -0.14 Incon -0.02 0.34 -0.65 0.09 -0.14 1.00 I Walk rate uncorrelated to inconsistency, accuracy. I Smaller zones tend to be more accurate and consistent. I Inconsistency is moderately correlated with accuracy. Correlations: observations Games ZoneSize Accuracy BBrate Krate Incon Games 1.00 -0.05 0.05 -0.03 0.30 -0.02 ZoneSize -0.05 1.00 -0.49 -0.39 0.09 0.34 Accuracy 0.05 -0.49 1.00 -0.01 0.27 -0.65 BBrate -0.03 -0.39 -0.01 1.00 -0.24 0.09 Krate 0.30 0.09 0.27 -0.24 1.00 -0.14 Incon -0.02 0.34 -0.65 0.09 -0.14 1.00 I Walk rate uncorrelated to inconsistency, accuracy. I Smaller zones tend to be more accurate and consistent. I Inconsistency is moderately correlated with accuracy. Correlations: observations Games ZoneSize Accuracy BBrate Krate Incon Games 1.00 -0.05 0.05 -0.03 0.30 -0.02 ZoneSize -0.05 1.00 -0.49 -0.39 0.09 0.34 Accuracy 0.05 -0.49 1.00 -0.01 0.27 -0.65 BBrate -0.03 -0.39 -0.01 1.00 -0.24 0.09 Krate 0.30 0.09 0.27 -0.24 1.00 -0.14 Incon -0.02 0.34 -0.65 0.09 -0.14 1.00 I Walk rate uncorrelated to inconsistency, accuracy. I Smaller zones tend to be more accurate and consistent. I Inconsistency is moderately correlated with accuracy. Accuracy vs. Inconsistency (r = −0.65) Pat Hoberg● Eric Cooper● 0.92 Sean Barber Vic Carapazza● ● Ben ●May Chris ●Segal Adam Hamari● Tom Woodring● Jim ●Wolf John Tumpane● Alan Porter● Jordan● Baker Mark Ripperger● Dan Bellino● Chris Guccione● Quinn WolcottLance Barksdale● Todd Tichenor● Mark Wegner ● 0.91 Gabe● Morales Will Little ● ● Stu Scheurwater Manny Gonzalez Phil Cuzzi ● Chris Conroy ● ChadGarySam Whitson HolbrookCederstromTripp Gibson● Brian● III O'Nora ● ● Mark● ● CarlsonD.J. Reyburn● Chad Fairchild ● ● ● Scott ●Barry Mike Everitt Nic Lentz ● ● Mike Muchlinski Tony Randazzo ● Carlos● Torres Jeff Kellogg● Lance ●Barrett ● Bruce Dreckman Ryan Blakney Brian Gorman● ● ● David Rackley● GregBill Gibson Welke James Hoye ● ● Jerry Meals Jim Reynolds ● Jeff Nelson ● ● Alfonso Marquez ● Tim Timmons● Adrian● Johnson● CoryBill Blaser● Miller● Ted BarrettMike● Estabrook Paul Emmel● ● Ed Hickox● Tom Hallion Doug Eddings● ● Angel Hernandez Marty ●Foster 0.90 Ron Kulpa● ● Ramon De● Jesus Dana DeMuth Gerry Davis Marvin Hudson ● ● ● CB Bucknor● Fieldin Culbreth● Laz ●Diaz Paul Nauert● Clint Fagan● Dan Iassogna ● Andy Fletcher● Consensus Rule Book Accuracy Hunter Wendelstedt● Jerry ●Layne Larry Vanover● Mike Winters● Joe West● 0.89 Kerwin ●Danley Rob Drake● 0.03 0.04 0.05 Average Inconsistency Index Principal Component Analysis Standard deviations (1, .., p=5): [1] 1.43 1.21 0.87 0.66 0.54 Rotation (n x k) = (5 x 5): PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 ZoneSize 0.495 -0.43 0.101 -0.642 0.39 Accuracy -0.626 -0.13 0.025 0.066 0.77 BBrate -0.089 0.68 -0.478 -0.536 0.10 Krate -0.179 -0.56 -0.784 -0.019 -0.21 Incon 0.568 0.16 -0.383 0.543 0.46 Plot of Components ● Andy Fletcher ● Alfonso Marquez 0.2 ● Sean Barber ● Jeff Kellogg ● Tony Randazzo ● ● James Hoye ● Dana DeMuthFieldin Culbreth ● Paul Nauert ● Bill Welke ● ● Pat Hoberg Larry Vanover ● Sam● Jordan Holbrook● D.J. Baker Reyburn ● Clint Fagan ● Jerry Meals ● ● ● ● David Rackley ● CarlosMark Torres Wegner Tom Hallion ● Jim Reynolds ● Paul EmmelMarvin Hudson ● Alan Porter ● Joe West ● ● Marty Foster ● Rob Drake ● Hunter Wendelstedt ● ● CB Bucknor Brian Gorman ● Lance Barksdale● Jerry Layne ● Manny Gonzalez ● John Tumpane ● Mike Winters ● ● Greg Gibson Will Little● Chad Whitson● MarkStu Carlson Scheurwater 0.0 ● ● ● Chris Conroy Bruce Dreckman Tom Woodring ●Jim Wolf ● Quinn Wolcott ● Tim Timmons ● Kerwin Danley ● Dan Bellino ● ● ● Gerry Davis ● ● Gary Cederstrom Brian O'Nora Ron Kulpa ● Gabe Morales ● Mike Everitt Todd Tichenor ● Dan Iassogna ● ● Chad● Fairchild ● ● Angel Hernandez ● Scott Barry Ed Hickox Jeff Nelson● Chris Guccione ● Tripp Gibson III Laz Diaz ● ● Nic Lentz ● Vic Carapazza ● Mark Ripperger Ramon De Jesus ●Ben May Hitter Friendliness ● ● ● ● Chris Segal Phil● Cuzzi Mike MuchlinskiLance Barrett ● Ryan Blakney ● ● Eric Cooper ● Adam Hamari Adrian Johnson Ted Barrett ● Cory Blaser −0.2 ●Bill Miller ● Mike Estabrook ● Doug Eddings −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 Strike Zone Sloppiness References I Data from MLBAM.
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  • LEVELAND INDIANS 2018 SPRING TRAINING GAME INFORMATION LOS ANGELES DODGERS (7-6-1) at CLEVELAND INDIANS (7-6-1) LHP Alex Wood (2-0, 10.80) Vs

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    LEVELAND INDIANS 2018 SPRING TRAINING GAME INFORMATION LOS ANGELES DODGERS (7-6-1) at CLEVELAND INDIANS (7-6-1) LHP Alex Wood (2-0, 10.80) vs. RHP Josh Tomlin (0-1, 11.25) Spring Game #15/Home #7 » Thursday, March 8, 2018 » Goodyear Ballpark » 8:05 p.m. (ET) » WMMS/IRN/webcast GREETINGS FROM GOODYEAR » The Cleveland Indians return to the Goodyear Development Complex for their DAYS LEFT UNTIL OPENING DAY 10th year of Spring Training in the Cactus League...after 16 seasons in Winter Haven, Florida from 1993-2008, the Tribe became the 14th organization to make March 29, 2018 @ Seattle Mariners its Spring Training home in Arizona beginning in 2009, while the Cincinnati Reds 21 Safeco Field made it an even 15-15 split of teams between the Cactus and Grapefruit circuits after joining the Indians here in Goodyear for the 2010 campaign. » Cleveland is 146-141-24 (.509) all-time in the Cactus League. INDIANS RECENT SPRING RECORDS 2018 MLB.com Year W-L-T AVG ERA CLEVELAND INDIANS TODAY’S MATCHUP VS. LOS ANGELES-NL 2017 17-16-3 .301 5.63 TOP 10 PROSPECTS » The Indians will face the Dodgers for the second time this week as they host 2016 18-12-4 .257 4.03 1. Francisco Mejía, C Los Angeles-NL in an evening tilt at Goodyear Ballpark. 2015 14-18-1 .270 4.54 2. Triston McKenzie, RHP » Tonight’s matchup is the final of three scheduled Cactus League contests be- 2014 20-9-2 .288 4.28 3. Bobby Bradley, 1B 2013 17-16-2 .282 5.14 tween the clubs...the Tribe took the first game of the series, scoring seven runs in 4.