Hunterston Parc, North Ayrshire Socio Economic

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Hunterston Parc, North Ayrshire Socio Economic HUNTERSTON PARC, NORTH AYRSHIRE SOCIO ECONOMIC STUDY On behalf of Peel Ports Group Limited May 2019 HUNTERSTON PARC, NORTH AYRSHIRE SOCIO ECONOMIC STUDY May 2019 Project Ref: 28669/A5 Status: FINAL Issue/Rev: 01 Date: 10 May 2019 Prepared By: MR Checked By: JD Authorised By: JD Barton Willmore LLP The Observatory Castle Hill Drive Castle Hill Ebbsfleet Valley Kent DA10 0DF Tel: (01322) 374660 Ref: 28669/A5/JD/djg/cg E-mail: [email protected] Date: 10 May 2019 COPYRIGHT The contents of this document must not be copied or reproduced in whole or in part without the written consent of Barton Willmore LLP. All Barton Willmore stationery is produced using recycled or FSC paper and vegetable oil based inks. CONTENTS Page No. 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT 01 2.0 DEFINING THE AREA OF IMPACT 03 3.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE AND TRENDS 08 4.0 FUTURE GROWTH 21 5.0 IMPACT OF HUNTERSTON PARC 30 6.0 CONCLUSIONS 39 Introduction and Context 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT 1.1 This study has been prepared by Barton Willmore on behalf of Peel Ports Group Ltd. The purpose of this report is to provide a socio-economic evidence base relating to the proposed Hunterston Port and Resource Centre (PARC) development on the site of the former Hunterston Bulk Terminal in North Ayrshire, south western Scotland. 1.2 Hunterston PARC will incorporate a variety of land uses, though it is expected that the opportunity will be particularly attractive to businesses that i) are in the energy sector, ii) require significant amounts of energy and/or iii) require multi-modal access (including deep water port access and direct access to the rail network). 1.3 This presents an opportunity to create new jobs in a diverse range of sectors. This study will therefore seek to understand how the mix of uses proposed at PARC will affect the local economy (particularly the local labour market) and help achieve the ambitions of North Ayrshire Council and the Ayrshire Growth Deal. 1.4 The remainder of this section summarises the current and historical context for the proposed development. More detailed contextual analysis is set out in Sections 2 and 3. Population Profile 1.5 North Ayrshire has suffered from a declining population and has fewer residents today than in 1991. The population is also ageing, with a 5% decline in working age residents over the last 10 years, compared with a 23% increase in the over 65s. Economic Participation 1.6 Economic Activity rates in North Ayrshire are below national average, both overall and in most age/gender groups. 1.7 Unemployment rates are also significantly above national average at 7%, although they have fallen somewhat from a peak of 13% in 2013. Most job seekers are searching for work in service sectors, though it is estimated that more than 500 seek positions in traditionally blue collar occupations. 28669/A5/JD/djg/cg 1 May 2019 Introduction and Context Total Employment and Productivity 1.8 The overall number of jobs in North Ayrshire is 17% lower than in 1991. Over this time, the Manufacturing sector has experienced the most significant declines with nearly 10,000 (net) job losses, although fewer than 2,000 of those have occurred in the last 10 years. Despite a tough economic climate, productivity (Gross Value Added per job) is only 1.8% lower than in South/East Ayrshire, which have experienced less significant job losses. Industry Sectors 1.9 North Ayrshire is specialised in the Manufacturing, Utilities, Energy and Arts/Recreation sectors, though the largest sectors (by number of jobs) are Retail and Health. In recent years, the administrative and support sector has experienced the strongest growth with more than 2,000 jobs added over the last 10 years. Deprivation 1.10 The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) ranks North Ayrshire as the third most deprived Council area in Scotland. The most deprived locations within North Ayrshire are the three towns and Irvine. Skills, Qualifications and Earnings 1.11 Overall skill levels in North Ayrshire are lower than national average, with fewer residents having Level 4+ qualifications than the average for Scotland. Despite this, median weekly pay for local residents is slightly higher than the national average. Commuting 1.12 There are 1.24 employed residents for each job, meaning that North Ayrshire is a net exporter of labour. For those commuting out, the most popular destinations are Glasgow City and East Ayrshire. 28669/A5/JD/djg/cg 2 May 2019 Defining the Area of Impact 2.0 DEFINING THE AREA OF IMPACT Site Location 2.1 Hunterston PARC is located in North Ayrshire, on the west coast of Scotland (see Figure 1). The site is approximately 35 miles (by road) south east of Glasgow and 80 miles from Edinburgh. Ayr is located 30 miles to the south along the coast. Figure 1, Hunterston Location Plan Approx. Site Boundary North Ayrshire Bd 2.2 The site falls within the ‘North Coast Locality Area’ within the emerging North Ayrshire Local Development Plan – an area that incorporates Largs, Fairlie and West Kilbride and Skelmorlie (off map to the north), in addition to the Cumbraes. 2.3 The main population centres in North Ayrshire (Irvine, Kilwilling and the ‘Three Towns’ area incorporating Ardrossan, Saltcoats and Stevenston) are located to the south of the North Coast area. Travel to Work Areas 2.4 In September 2016, the ONS published its latest Travel to Work Area (TTWA) boundaries for Great Britain, derived from Census 2011 data (Figure 2). 28669/A5/JD/djg/cg 3 May 2019 Defining the Area of Impact 2.5 Travel to Work Areas are a useful starting point for understanding the spatial extents of labour markets. 2.6 Each TTWA has a high degree of self-containment; meaning that the vast majority of people who work within the TTWA also live in that same area. Hunterston PARC falls within the northern part of the Kilmarnock and Irvine TTWA. Figure 2, Travel to Work Areas Source: ONS 2.7 Given that Hunterston is not the focus of this TTWA, however, it is useful to analyse travel to work flow data in more detail to understand commuting patterns specific to the local area. Local Area Worker Origins 2.8 Figure 3 shows the home locations of those who were working in the local area (Data Zone ‘Fairlie and Rural 02’) at the time of the 2011 Census. 28669/A5/JD/djg/cg 4 May 2019 Defining the Area of Impact 2.9 This ‘Data Zone’ incorporates the previous operations at the PARC site plus the nearby nuclear power station, and a number of smaller/rural businesses operating in the area. Figure 3, Hunterston Worker Origins Data Zone ‘Fairlie and Rural 02’ Home Locations of Data Zone’s Workers Source: NRS/ONS, Census 2011 2.10 The chart below (Figure 4) summarises the proportion of workers originating in each Council area. Nearly 72% originate from North Ayrshire, 10% live in East or South Ayrshire, and a further 17% live in the Glasgow City Region. 28669/A5/JD/djg/cg 5 May 2019 Defining the Area of Impact Figure 4, Worker Origin by Council Area Rest of GCR, 4% Rest of Scotland, 1% Glasgow City, 3% Renfrewshire, 5% Inverclyde, 5% East Ayrshire, 5% South Ayrshire, 5% North Ayrshire, 72% Worker Origins – Detailed 2.11 The chart overleaf (Figure 5) shows the main towns and villages within North Ayrshire where local area (Data Zone) workers live, according to the 2011 Census. 2.12 There is no single dominant settlement and although Largs is the single settlement that accounts for the most workers (13%), the ‘Three Towns’ of Ardrossan, Saltcoats and Stevenston account for a combined 27%. 2.13 Irvine and Kilwinning, the two largest settlements in North Ayrshire, account for 5% and 6% respectively. Just under a third (32%) live either in rural North Ayrshire or in other Council Areas. 2.14 On the basis of this analysis of Census Travel to Work data, the area that is likely to experience the greatest economic benefit from development at Hunterston PARC is North Ayrshire as a whole, the local authority where the majority of its workforce is expected to originate. 28669/A5/JD/djg/cg 6 May 2019 Defining the Area of Impact 2.15 A wider area incorporating East and South Ayrshire, plus the Glasgow City Region, may also experience an impact, although this may be weaker than the impact on North Ayrshire. 2.16 As such, this assessment addresses impact on North Ayrshire alongside East and South Ayrshire and the Glasgow City Region. Figure 5, Worker Origins by Towns and Villages Largs, 13% Outside North Ayrshire, 28% Saltcoats, 10% Ardrossan, 10% Other North Ayrshire, 4% Skelmorlie, 1% Dalry, 2% Beith, 2% West Kilbride and Kilbirnie and Longbar , Seamill , 8% 2% Fairlie, 3% Irvine, 5% Stevenston, 7% Kilwinning, 6% 28669/A5/JD/djg/cg 7 May 2019 Socio – Economic Baseline and Trends 3.0 SOCIO - ECONOMIC BASELINE AND TRENDS Population Growth Trend and Age Profile 3.1 Between 1991 and the mid-2000s, the population of North Ayrshire and the wider study are was in decline, against a backdrop of the population remaining fairly constant across Scotland as a whole (See Figure 6i). Figure 6i, Total Population Trend 1991-2016 (100 = 1991) 110 105 100 95 90 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 North Ayrshire East and South Ayrshire Glasgow City Region Scotland 3.2 After the mid-2000s, the national population began to grow (as did the Glasgow City Region population), but the three Ayrshire Council areas have started to experience decline once more after a period of recovery in the late 2000s.
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