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2016 BLACK BOOK.Indd N C A A CANDLE IN THE WIND reseason football polls are like a win percentage of .900 or less on tits on a bull. There’s not much the season and they ratchet up to P you can do with them other 15-1 ATS. than to imagine or wonder what if. And for what it’s worth, a super Because after all, depending on what subset resides inside this angle that you conjure up, it really doesn’t mean has never lost – going 15-0 ATS. Best a thing… until the games begin. of all, you can view it on the BETTING TOOLS section contained under the For teams like Alabama, the defending BLACK BOOK link at Playbook.com. national champion and this year’s expected No. 1 college football team Last year witnessed one qualifying in the preseason polls, the prestigious play when Ohio State traveled to early ranking is simply a declaration the Big House in Michigan, off a 17- that expectations are exceedingly 14 loss as 16.5-point favorites to high and that the bulls-eye has been Michigan State. The Buckeyes carried targeted and is now fi rmly in place. the torch when they went on to whip the Wolverines, 42-13, as manageable It should be known that preseason 1-point road chalk. No. 1 teams are, for the most part, " And I would liked to highly successful. These teams have So should the Tide fi nd itself favored have known you gone 387-67-1 SU in all games since this season after having been tripped 1980. And they’re at their best against up as a favorite in its previous game, But I was just a kid the spread in games when playing off you know what to do. Because, after Your candle burned out a pointspread loss, going 101-87-3 all, it was the legendary Elton John ATS over the same span, including a who reminded us: long before stellar 97-79-3 ATS when favored. Your legend ever did Loneliness was tough They are at their very best, however, in The‘ toughest role you ever played ‘ The candle burned out games after having had the rug pulled Hollywood created a superstar long before out from under them as a favorite the And pain was the price you paid. previous game… Your legend ever did." PLAY ON any AP Preseason No. 1 college team as a favorite off a SU favorite loss in their previous game. Had you had the foresight to back teams in this situation, you would own a sparkling 25-15 ATS mark in these games since 1980. FYI: these mad-as-hell favorites are also 36-4 SU in these same games. Put them up against quality opposition (greater than .600) and they shoot up to 17-4 ATS in this role. Better yet, have them enter this same game with 2016 BLACK BOOK PAGE 3 BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW N C A A CIRCLE OF LIFE hanging roles. It’s never been 4-point road chalk at San Diego State easy. And while it’s become after upsetting Boise State, 52-26, as C commonplace in the world in 7.5-point home pups the previous which we live today – from 50 Shades week. The Aggies promptly fell on of Grey to Caitlyn Jenner – it’s always their face in a 48-14 loss against the an uncomfortable, uphill journey. Aztecs. San Diego State then went out The same holds true in the world of as 3-point road faves the following college football whenever teams are week at Colorado State, yet somehow asked to assume a new role from one managed to win and cover against the game to the next. Particularly so when Rams in a rare win. they are suddenly favored after having FYI: there is a 0-16 ATS perfect just pulled an upset as an underdog. tightener inside this theory, one in which Utah State stumbled in last year. In fact, college football conference Read all about it on the playbook. road favorites off a SU conference com website when you click on the home underdog win own a meager BLACK BOOK SYSTEMS links inside 77-104-4 ATS losing mark since 1980. the BETTING TOOLS section. Better yet, our well-oiled machine So when it comes to going full circle, " It's the wheel of tells us the best role in which to fade remember that the task is much taller fortune these situation role changers is to… than the undertaking. Sir Elton John It's the leap of faith confi rms it with this closing message: PLAY AGAINST any It's the band of hope college football conference Some of us fall by the wayside Till we fi nd our place road favorite off a SU home ‘And some of us soar to the stars And some of us sail On the path unwinding underdog win versus an opponent through our troubles In the circle, off a SU underdog win. And some have to live with the scars. the circle of life." Some say eat or be eaten That’s because these uncomfortable Some say live and let live road favorites are a 2-21 ATS losing But all are agreed proposition in this hard-to-handle as they join the stampede role change since 1990. You should never take more‘ Last year witnessed two such plays than you give when Utah State journeyed out as In the circle of life. BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW PAGE 6 2016 BLACK BOOK ATLANTA FALCONS NFC South • 2015: 8-8 SU / 6-10 ATS • HC: Dan Quinn (2nd yr: 8-8 SU / 6-10 ATS) • www.atlantafalcons.com 2016 INFORMATION LOG TOP DRAFT PICK • SS Keanu Neal (Florida) SITE/OPPONENT DATE OWL GAME NO. MRT SIGNED: TAMPA BAY • 9/11 6-10 3-1 ATS Game One • C Alex Mack (Browns) at Oakland 9/18 7-9 6-1 ATS Game Two • QB Matt Schaub (Ravens) • G Michael Huey (Chargers) # 9/26 7-9 3-0 O/U Game Three at New Orleans • • CB DeMarcus Van Dyke (Vikings) CAROLINA • 10/2 17-2 1-5 ATS Game Four • WR Aldrick Robinson (Ravens) at Denver 10/9 15-4 1-6 O/U Game Five at Seattle 10/16 11-7 1-4 O/U Game Six 100% ATS Trends SAN DIEGO 10/23 4-12 1-4 O/U Game Seven 11-0 home vs < .500 non-div opp off DD SU win GREEN BAY 10/30 11-7 0-5 O/U Game Eight 9-0 .500 > off SUATS loss vs .333 < div opp off DD ATS loss at Tampa Bay • ! 11/3 6-10 1-4 SUATS Game Nine 8-0 RD’s vs opp off SU home fav loss w/ revenge at Philadelphia 11/13 7-9 0-4 ATS Game Ten 7-0 away vs .500 > opp off BB SU losses OPEN DATE 11/20 6-0 .500 > away off DD SU loss w/ revenge vs .500 > opp ARIZONA 11/27 14-4 1-6 O/U Game Eleven 0-13 HF’s off DD SUATS home win KANSAS CITY 12/4 12-6 3-1 ATS Game Twelve 0-12 home off 3 ATS wins vs .500 > opp at Los Angeles 12/11 7-9 5-2 ATS Game Thirteen 0-10 home off BB SUATS wins vs opp off SU loss SAN FRANCISCO 12/18 5-11 7-1 SU Game Fourteen 0-9 dogs > 3 pts off BB away vs non-div opp at Carolina • ! 12/24 17-2 4-0 ATS Game Fifteen 0-8 < .500 HD’s after score 30 > pts NEW ORLEANS • 1/1 7-9 0-4 O/U Game Sixteen # Monday ! Thursday/Saturday NOTES 2016 Opponents Combined 2015 Win-Loss Pct: .560 (#1 most diffi cult schedule) SITUATION HOME AWAY FAV DOG Off Win 20-34 35-35 33-35 21-34 Off BB Wins 5-21 17-16 16-23 6-14 Off DD Win 9-17 14-16 16-21 7-12 Off Dog Win 10-12 9-9-1 10-10 9-11 Off SUATS Win 17-29 27-29 28-31 16-27 Off BB SUATS Wins 2-15 10-10 3-7 3-9 SITUATION HOME AWAY FAV DOG Off Loss 33-34 29-21 25-23 36-33 Off BB Losses 12-16 13-14 8-8 18-22 Off DD Loss 16-16 16-14 10-8 21-22 Off Fav Loss 13-10 6-7 11-10 7-7 Off SUATS Loss 26-26 26-19 20-20 31-26 Off BB SUATS Losses 5-13 8-11 3-7 11-17 SITUATION HOME AWAY FAV DOG With Revenge 38-32 34-27 29-20 42-40 Vs Revenge 21-36 35-32 33-40 22-28 Vs Division 23-26 23-25 25-20 22-30 Vs Non-Division 37-42 46-36 37-41 43-39 FUN FACT: A 2010 study based on 4 broadcasts says a standard Opponent Off SU Win 29-33 35-31 23-22 39-42 NFL game features just 10 minutes and 43 seconds of action Opponent Off SU Loss 25-35 29-25 36-36 18-25 (commercials account for nearly 60 minutes of the 3-hour affairs). 2016 BLACK BOOK PAGE 13 ATLANTA FALCONS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AFC East • 2015: 13-5 SU / 8-8-2 ATS • HC: Bill Belichick (17th yr: 209-78 SU / 159-121-7 ATS) • www.patriots.com 2016 INFORMATION LOG TOP DRAFT PICKS • CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama) SITE/OPPONENT DATE OWL GAME NO.
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