Corporate Ownership & Control / Volume 9, Issue 1, 2011, Continued - 6 DISCRETIONARY ACCRUALS AND THE PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF EARNINGS IN THE FORECAST OF FUTURE CASH FLOWS: EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA Shadi Farshadfar*, Reza Monem** Abstract We examine whether discretionary and non-discretionary accruals improve the predictive ability of earnings for forecasting future cash flows in an Australian context. Using both within-sample and out- of-sample forecasting tests, we demonstrate that discretionary accruals improve the predictive abilty of earnings in the forecast of future cash flows. Further, discretionary and non-discretionary accruals and direct method cash flow components together are more useful than (i) aggregate earnings, (ii) aggregate cash flow from operations and total accruals, and (iii) aggregate cash flow from operations, discretionary accruals and nondiscretionary accruals. Keywords: Discretionary Accruals, Nondiscretionary Accruals, Cash Flow, Earnings, Future Cash Flows, Australia JEL Classification: M41 *Corresponding Author, Ted Rogers School of Management, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 2K3, Canada Tel: 1-416-9795000 Fax: 1-416-9795266 Email:
[email protected] ** Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia 1. Introduction discretionary and non-discretionary accruals, most of the previous studies have used stock returns as a We investigate whether decomposing accruals into surrogate of future cash flows, rather than using future discretionary and non-discretionary components cash flows directly. improves the predictive ability of earnings for The forecasting of future cash flows is forecasting future cash flows. There are two fundamental to a firm‘s valuation and its investment perspectives in positive accounting theory about the analysis (e.g., Krishnan and Largay, 2000); as well, role of discretionary accruals in the usefulness of accounting standard-setters argue that forecasting earnings: signaling and opportunism.