Zimbabwe: Agriculture Sector Disaster Risk Assessment MARCH 2019 Zimbabwe: Agriculture Sector Disaster Risk Assessment Zimbabwe: Agriculture Sector Disaster Risk Assessment ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was developed by a team led by Azeb donor community, who ensured fruitful and produc- Fissha Mekonnen, Agricultural Specialist of the tive discussions of the findings of this assessment at Agriculture Global Practice at the World Bank. The various workshops. activities were supported by Carlos E. Arce and Jorge The team also extends its appreciation to the Caballero as lead consultants for the overall study. stakeholders from major agricultural supply chains Eija Peju, Alejandra Campero, Ramiro Iturrioz, and that participated at various stages of the fieldwork Easther Chigumira provided specialized analysis and in workshops to discuss the findings. The team is during the risk assessment. indebted to them for encouraging the team to main- Special thanks are due to the team of Zimbabwean tain a realistic and practical perspective. consultants who carried out field assessments for Valuable and constructive comments were various agricultural commodities and livestock received from Diego Arias Carballo, Lead Agriculture and for the valuable and practical comments and Economist (World Bank); John Luke Plevin, contributions they provided to this study: Carren Financial Sector Specialist (World Bank); and Niels Pindiriri, Jacqeline Mutambara, Jacob Gusha, and Balzer, Deputy Country Director (World Food Vimbai Audrey Chandiwana. Willem Janssen, Lead Programme, Zimbabwe), acting as peer reviewers Agricultural Specialist, and Julie Dana, Practice for the study. Mukami Karuki, Country Manager Manager for the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction for Zimbabwe; Mark Cackler, Practice Manager, and Recovery, Barry Patrick Maher, Senior Financial Agriculture Global Practice; and Holger Kray, Lead Sector Specialist, of the World Bank, provided advice Agriculture Economist, Agriculture Global Practice at various stages. provided important guidance and support. This The team is grateful to the Ministry of Land, activity is financed by the EU-funded ACP-EU Agriculture, Water, Climate and Rural Resettlement Africa Disaster Risk Financing Program, managed for leadership and support, as well as to the par- by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and ticipants from the private sector, government, and Recovery. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. CONTENTS Acknowledgements v Abbreviations and Acronyms xi Executive Summary 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 5 1.1 Overview of the Agricultural Sector 5 1.2 Methodology Used for This Risk Assessment 6 Chapter 2 Agricultural Risk Exposure 9 2.1 Production Losses 9 2.2 Production Losses for Different Return Periods 10 Chapter 3 Sources of Risk 13 3.1 Agro-ecological Regions 13 3.2 Risk Identification 14 3.3 Risk Prioritization 16 Chapter 4 Capacity to Manage Agricultural Risk 21 4.1 Vulnerability Factors 21 4.2 Agricultural Services for Strengthening Resilience 22 4.3 Assessing Disaster Risk Management Capacity 23 Chapter 5 Toward a Risk Management Strategy 31 5.1 Risk Mitigation 32 5.2 Agricultural Insurance 38 5.3 Sovereign Disaster Risk Management 40 Chapter 6 Concluding Remarks 45 Bibliography 47 vii viii Contents Appendix A Description of Agricultural Supply Chains Used in the Risk Assessment 49 Appendix B Methodology Used to Estimate the Value of Crop Losses 57 Tobacco Crop Loss Estimates 57 Maize Crop Loss Estimates 59 Appendix C Methodology for the Risk Assessment for Various Return Periods 63 Materials and Methods 63 Main Findings and Discussion 66 Appendix D Risks for Crop and Livestock Supply Chains 83 Crops 83 Cattle Production 89 Poultry Industry 91 Tables 1 Land Holdings Before and After the Introduction of Fast Track Land Reform, Zimbabwe 6 2 Zimbabwe: Main Agricultural Commodities Included in the Risk Assessment 7 3 Estimated Volume and Value of Crop Losses in Zimbabwe (Average of 30 Years, 1986-2016) 10 4 Estimated Loss at Risk (LaR) for a Portfolio of Crops at Different Return Periods 10 5 Production Risks and Current Risk Management Practices by Stakeholder Group, Zimbabwe 17 6 Basic Legislation for Disaster Risk Management 24 7 Additional Legislation Supporting Disaster Risk Management 25 8 Policy and Strategies Related to Disaster Risk Management and Financing 25 9 Allocations from the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development Contingency Fund to the Department of Civil Protection for Disaster Operations 28 10 Budget allocations (in US$) from the Civil Protection Fund 28 11 Maize Imports and Their Value, 2015–18 29 12 Annual Budget for Agricultural Services 33 13 Estimated Financing Gap in Disaster Risk Management in Zimbabwe 41 Appendix Tables B.1 Data for Estimating Tobacco Crop Losses and Their Value 57 B.2 Data for estimating Maize Crop Losses and Their Value 59 C.1 Zimbabwe Crop Portfolio: Exposure–Expected Gross Value of Production (US$) 68 C.2 Zimbabwe: Whole Crop Complex: Expected LaR Values for Different Return Periods 69 C.3 Zimbabwe: Contribution of each Crop to the Portfolio Risk 70 C.4 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR Values for Maize for Different Return Periods 71 C.5 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR Values for Tobacco for Different Return Periods 72 C.6 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR Values for Sugarcane for Different Return Periods 74 C.7 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR Values for Groundnuts for Different Return Periods 76 C.8 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR Values for Cotton for Different Return Periods 78 C.9 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR Values for Sorghum for Different Return Periods 80 C.10 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR Values for Wheat for Different Return Periods 81 C.11 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR Values for Soybeans for Different Return Periods 82 D.1 Variation in Maize Yields by Province, Zimbabwe 85 Figures 1 Relationship Between Agriculture Value Added and Overall GDP Growth 7 2 Agro-Ecological Regions and Soil Map 14 3 Correlation Between Rainfall and Crop Yields, Zimbabwe 15 4 Prioritized Agricultural Risks, Zimbabwe 18 5 Structure of Zimbabwe’s emergency Management System 26 Contents ix 6 Zimbabwe Humanitarian Response Plan, 2008–16 30 7 A Risk Layering Strategy for the Government of Zimbabwe 32 8 Grouping Farmers to Develop Different Strategies for Agricultural Innovation 34 9 Zimbabwe: Financial Risk Layering to Respond to Natural Disasters 41 Appendix Figures A.1 Tobacco Growers and Area 50 A.2 Tobacco Supply Chain Actors 50 A.3 Cotton Supply Chain 51 A.4 Sugarcane Supply Chain 52 A.5 Wheat Supply Chain 53 A.6 Horticulture Supply Chain 55 A.7 Beef Supply Chain 56 B.1 Yield Trends and Crop Losses, Tobacco 58 B.2 Yield Trends and Crop Losses in Relation to Severe Weather Events, Maize 60 B.3 Maize Yields Over Time (National Yields and Yields at Different Scales of Production) 61 C.1 Zimbabwe: Historic Evolution of Maize Yields 64 C.2 Zimbabwe: Maize Yield Deviations from Expected Yields 65 C.3 Zimbabwe: Detrended Maize Yields 65 C.4 Zimbabwe Maize: Best Fit Probability Distribution Function Over Detrended Yields 65 C.5 Methodology Used for the Assessment 67 C.6 Zimbabwe: Production of Main Crops (t), 1986–2015 68 C.7 Zimbabwe: Yields of Main Crops (kg/ha), 1986–2015 69 C.8 Expected LaR for Different Recurrence Periods for the Whole Crop Portfolio in Zimbabwe 69 C.9 Zimbabwe: Maize Production (t), 1986–2015 70 C.10 Zimbabwe: Maize Yields (kg/ha), 1986–2015 70 C.11 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR for Maize for Different Recurrence Periods 71 C.12 Zimbabwe: Tobacco Production (t), 1986–2015 71 C.13 Zimbabwe: Tobacco Yields (kg/ha), 1986–2015 72 C.14 Expected LaR for Different Recurrence Periods for Tobacco in Zimbabwe 72 C.15 Zimbabwe: Sugarcane Production (t), 1986–2015 73 C.16 Zimbabwe: Sugarcane Yields (kg/ha), 1986–2015 74 C.17 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR for Sugarcane for Different Recurrence Periods 74 C.18 Zimbabwe: Groundnut Production (t), 1986–2015 75 C.19 Zimbabwe: Groundnut Yields (kg/ha), 1986–2015 75 C.20 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR for Groundnuts for Different Recurrence Periods 76 C.21 Zimbabwe: Cotton Production (t), 1986–2015 77 C.22 Zimbabwe: Cotton Yields, 1986-2015 77 C.23 Zimbabwe: Expected LaR for Cotton for Different Recurrence Periods 78 C.24 Zimbabwe: Coffee Production (t), 1986–2015 78 C.25 Zimbabwe: Coffee Yields (kg/ha), 1986-2015 79 C.26 Zimbabwe: Sorghum Production (t), 1986–2015 79 C.27 Zimbabwe: Sorghum Yields (kg/ha), 1986-2015 80 C.28 Zimbabwe: Wheat Production (t), 1986–2015 81 C.29 Zimbabwe: Wheat Yields (kg/ha), 1986–2015 81 C.30 Zimbabwe: Soybean Production (t), 1986–2015 82 C.31 Zimbabwe: Soybean Yields (kg/ha), 1986–2015 82 D.1 Maize: Estimated Annual Yield Losses 84 D.2 Groundnuts: Estimated Annual Yield Losses 84 D.3 National Retail Maize Prices in Zimbabwe 85 D.4 Seed Cotton: Estimated Annual Yield Losses 86 x Contents D.5 Wheat: Estimated Annual Losses 86 D.6 Tobacco: Estimated Annual Yield Losses 87 D.7 Sugarcane: Estimated Annual Yield Losses 88 D.8 Effect of Weather-Related Risks on Livestock Numbers (Headcount),