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Booking a Ticket to Alpha RESEARCHNovemberREPORT 9, 2019 BookingNovember a Ticket 9, 2019 to Alpha Stock Rating BUY Price Target USD $2,453 Bear Price Bull Case Target Case $2,343 $2,453 $2,793 Ticker BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. Market Cap (MM) $78,644 Booking a Ticket to Alpha EV / EBITDA 15.2x P / E 21.6x Booking Holdings operates several Online Travel Agencies (OTAs), including Booking.com, as well as meta-search websites, including 52 Week Performance KAYAK. 110 The QUIC Consumers team is revisiting Booking to understand the company’s performance over the last year, assess the relevancy of our original theses, and better understand the downside potential within the currently volatile travel booking industry. 100 Revisiting Thesis I: Secular Trends Creating a Room for Growth Travel industry tailwinds are supported by a) continued transitions 90 from offline to online booking, b) an increasing demographic specific desire to travel, and c) growth of travel worldwide, especially in the Asia Pacific region. This will drive BKNG's growth in the long- term. 80 08-Nov-18 08-May-19 08-Nov-19 Revisiting Thesis II: Quality Business With Emerging Moat BKNG S&P 100 Index The company benefits from both economies of scale and a marketplace network effect, creating an economic moat which will Consumers protect the firm from disruption. Reid Kilburn Valuation Implications [email protected] Based on a DCF model, the QUIC team determines that BKNG is Bronwyn Ferris currently undervalued. Our price target of $2,453 implies an upside [email protected] of 33% to the current price of $1,850 James Boulter [email protected] The information in this document is for EDUCATIONAL and NON-COMMERCIAL use only and is not intended to Anchal Thind constitute specific legal, accounting, financial or tax advice for any individual. In no event will QUIC, its members or directors, or Queen’s University be liable to you or anyone else for any loss or damages whatsoever (including [email protected] direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, exemplary or punitive damages) resulting from the use of this document, or reliance on the information or content found within this document. The information may not be reproduced or republished in any part without the prior written consent of QUIC and Queen’s University. QUIC is not in the business of advising or holding themselves out as being in the business of advising. Many factors may affect the applicability of any statement or comment that appear in our documents to an individual's particular circumstances. © Queen’s University 2019 November 9, 2019 Booking a Ticket to Alpha Table of Contents Booking Holdings Overview 2 LTM Update 3 Long-term Trends Paving the Way for Growth 6 High Quality Business With Competitive Moat 8 Valuation 10 Appendix I: BKNG Brand Umbrella 11 Appendix II: Travel Industry Overview 12 Appendix III: How Individuals Buy Online Travel Products 13 Appendix IV: Google’s Move from Partner to Competitor 14 References 15 2 November 9, 2019 Booking a Ticket to Alpha Overview: Booking Holdings Booking Holdings is the largest of the three prominent Booking’s costs are heavily weighted to advertising online travel agencies (OTAs) and operates under six and overhead. Their only cost of revenue is for brands to serve various functional niches (see Appendix Priceline.com merchant activities, where revenue is I). Their principal activities include facilitating flight, recorded on a gross basis. The bulk of the remaining accommodation, and car rental bookings through their costs are variable “performance” advertising ($4.1B) online platform. and fixed “brand” advertising ($392MM). During 2018, BKNG generated $3.9B in profit on $14.5B of revenue, Business Model with an impressive 40% EBITDA margin. Booking Holdings is a marketplace that generates BKNG’s merchant services allowed them to pioneer revenue in three ways: agency revenue, merchant opaque travel services like the “Name Your Own Price” revenue, and advertising revenue (see Exhibit I). option on Priceline.com. Opaque services allow BKNG Agency revenue is the lion’s share of their business, to sell anonymous rooms of guaranteed quality to the and is generated through a commission of ~13% on all consumer for a price below market value. This allows orders that flow through their platform. Merchant hotels to quickly fill unused rooms without damaging revenue is generated when Booking facilitates their brand or tripping minimum online pricing rules, payment activities directly with the end customer. and creates compelling value for price sensitive Advertising revenue is generated by sending referrals consumers who are willing to be adaptable within to service providers and physical advertising certain pre-defined parameters. placement’s on Booking’s online platforms. EXHIBIT I EXHIBIT II Gross Profit Segmentation ($MM USD) BKNG Brand Umbrella $12,000 $9,000 $6,000 $3,000 $0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Agency Merchant Advertising Source(s): Company Filings Source(s): Company Filings 3 November 9, 2019 Booking a Ticket to Alpha LTM Update: Major Industry Developments Competitive pressures in the travel industry have Expedia intensified in the past year. Downbeat earnings in recent weeks have contributed to a sector-wide selloff (Exhibit Expedia tumbled 25% earlier this week, with the company III) fueled by concerns over fading demand and the citing difficulty in online search advertising activities as opening of new competitive fronts with a prior ally. the cause for a miss at both the top and bottom lines. Selling and marketing expenses increased 11% YoY in the Google quarter as inbound traffic flatlined, with CEO Okerstrum describing declining effectiveness of advertisements in Google has been the most aggressive challenger to OTA search results from an increasingly aggressive Google. incumbents as the company continues pushing further downstream into the travel booking cycle (see Appendix The Big Picture IV). Industry experts contend that Google is dedicating more paid advertising space to their internal booking Competitive pressure and perceived macroeconomic channels, which results in external players being bumped weakness have spooked investors, but not all travel further down the search list and causing greater reliance players are feeling an equal squeeze. Disney and on higher cost-per-click channels like banner ads to drive Norwegian Cruise lines have beat earnings estimates, traffic. Google’s continued expansion into later stages of benefiting from diversified international demand and a the travel cycle is concerning for marketplace players like strong brand which drives direct customer access. Success Booking and Expedia, who have historically relied on in the travel industry is not unattainable. However, with Google to drive the lion’s share of their customer paid clicks comprising roughly half of traffic for acquisition needs. marketplace offerings, OTA’s must find a way to lead customers directly to their platform and reduce reliance on increasingly expensive search engine advertising. Exhibit III Recent Selloff of the Big 3 OTAs (% Return over LTM) 20% 10% 0% (4.9%) (10%) (20%) (21.6%) (30%) (40%) (50%) (52.3%) (60%) 08-Nov-18 08-Jan-19 08-Mar-19 08-May-19 08-Jul-19 08-Sep-19 08-Nov-19 BKNG TRIP EXPE Source(s): S&P Capital IQ, Company Filings 4 November 9, 2019 Booking a Ticket to Alpha LTM Update: BKNG Performance Q3 Results pressure from increased search advertising costs, Booking’s EBITDA margin has remained steady YoY, In context of the broader OTA selloff this week, with Selling and Marketing expenses declining by Booking performed relatively well. The stock initially ~150bps as a % of revenue. dipped 8% from contagion around Expedia and TripAdvisor’s poor performance before rebounding Strategic Results slightly after the Q3 release, closing the week down 6%. Booking missed slightly on revenue but beat on CEO Fogel emphasized Booking’s brand advertising earnings, avoiding the ~20% drop of their OTA peers. strategy as a core reason why the company was able to better withstand the search advertising headwinds Key Performance Indicators plaguing their OTA rivals. Booking’s direct channels drove better than expected traffic, allowing paid Room nights on a commission basis remain the growth search advertising expenditure to decline by 2% engine of BKNG – rental car days and airline tickets (Exhibit IV) while overall traffic increased by 7%. have grown slightly but remain a relatively small portion of the business compared to room nights, Additionally, Booking’s focus on growing alternative which continue to grow at low double digits (+11% accommodations by 6% YoY (6.2M total listings) YoY). Gross transaction value increased 4% YoY (7% on helped insulate against the “Airbnb effect” that drives a constant currency basis), reflecting a diversified certain segments of price-sensitive consumers away international footprint but substantially unfavorable FX from traditional hotel bookings and into non-standard impact this quarter. Despite industry-wide margin accommodation arrangements. EXHIBIT IV EXHIBIT V Advertising Spend (% of Revenue) Operating Statistics (MM) 40% 1,000 30% 750 20% 500 10% 250 0% 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018 Performance Ad (% Rev.) Brand Ad (% Rev.) Room Nights Rental Car Days Airline Tickets Source(s): Company Filings Source(s): Company Filings 5 November 9, 2019 Booking a Ticket to Alpha Thesis I: Long-term Trends Paving the Way for Growth Industry tailwinds supported by a) offline to online Further, the travel
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