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U.S.-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement: Potential Economywide and Selected Sectoral Effects

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U.S.-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement: Potential Economywide and Selected Sectoral Effects U.S. International Trade Commission COMMISSIONERS Stephen Koplan, Chairman Deanna Tanner Okun, Vice Chairman Marcia E. Miller Jennifer A. Hillman Charlotte R. Lane Daniel R. Pearson Robert A. Rogowsky Director of Operations Robert B. Koopman Director, Office of Economics Address all communications to Secretary to the Commission United States International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 U.S. International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 www.usitc.gov U.S.-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement: Potential Economywide and Selected Sectoral Effects Investigation No. TA--2104-15 Publication 3726 October 2004 This report was principally prepared by Arona M. Butcher, Chief, Country and Regional Analysis Division Thomas Jennings, Project Leader Walker Pollard, Project Leader Office of Economics Soamiely Andriamananjara, Kyle Johnson, and Selamawit Legesse Student Interns Melissa Gilbert and Shakira Van Savage Office of Industries Queena Fan, ID Coordinator Laura Bloodgood, Heidi Colby-Oizumi, Eric Forden, Cynthia Foreso, Vincent Honnold, Christopher Johnson, Timothy McCarty, Douglas Newman, Michael Nunes, Laura Polly, and Karl Tsuji Office of the General Counsel William Gearhart Office of Tariff Affairs and Trade Agreements Donnette Rimmer and Jan Summers Office of Publishing Primary Reviewers James Fetzer and Robert Wallace Supporting assistance was provided by: Patricia M. Thomas, Office of Economics PREFACE On June 28, 2004, the United States International Trade Commission (the Commission), instituted Investigation No. TA-2104-15, U.S.-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement: Potential Economywide and Selected Sectoral Effects. The investigation, conducted pursuant to section 2104(f) of the Trade Act of 2002 (the Trade Act), was in response to a request from the United States Trade Representative (see appendix A). The purpose of this investigation is to assess the likely impact of the U.S.-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement on the U.S. economy as a whole and on specific industry sectors and the interests of U.S. consumers. As provided for in section 2104(f)(2) of the Trade Act, the Commission must submit to the President and the Congress (not later than 90 calendar days after the President enters into the Agreement) a report assessing the likely impact of the Agreement on the United States economy as a whole and on specific industry sectors, including the impact the Agreement will have on the gross domestic product, exports and imports, aggregate employment and employment opportunities,the production,employment,andcompetitive positionof industrieslikely to be significantly affected by the agreement, and the interests of United States consumers. Section 2104(f)(3) of the Trade Act requires that the Commission, in preparing the assessment, review available economic assessments regarding the Agreement, including literature regarding any substantially equivalent proposed agreement, and provide in its assessment a description of the analyses used and conclusions drawn in such literature and a discussion of areas of consensus and divergence between the various analyses and conclusions, including those of the Commission regarding the Agreement. The Commission solicited public comment for this investigation by publishing a notice in the Federal Register of July 28, 2004 (see appendix B). Interested party views are summarized in chapter 6 of this report. i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Preface...................................................... i Abbreviations and acronyms..................................... vii Executive Summary............................................. ix Chapter 1. Introduction.......................................... 1 Purpose of the report....................................... 1 Scope of the report........................................ 2 Approach of the report..................................... 2 Organization of the report.................................. 4 Bahrain: Country profile.................................... 4 Chapter 2. Overview of the U.S.-Bahrain FTA........................ 7 Background on free trade agreements......................... 7 Brief summary of treaty provisions............................. 7 Introduction.............................................. 7 Summary of tariff commitments............................... 8 Chapter-by-chapter review.................................. 9 Chapter 1—Establishment and definitions..................... 9 Chapter 2—Market access................................ 9 Chapter 3—Textiles and apparel............................ 10 Chapter 4—Rules of origin................................ 12 Chapter 5—Customs administration......................... 13 Chapter 6—Sanitary and phytosanitary measures.............. 14 Chapter 7—Technical barriers to trade....................... 14 Chapter 8—Safeguards................................... 14 Chapter 9—Government procurement....................... 15 Chapter 10—Cross-border trade in services................... 15 Chapter 11—Financial services............................. 16 Chapter 12—Telecommunications........................... 17 Chapter 13—Electronic commerce........................... 17 Chapter 14—Intellectual property rights...................... 18 Chapter 15—Labor...................................... 19 Chapter 16—Environment................................. 19 Chapter 17—Transparency................................ 20 Chapter 18—Administration of the agreement................. 20 Chapter 19—Dispute settlement............................. 20 Chapter 20—Exceptions.................................. 21 Chapter 21—Final provisions............................... 22 Additional annexes and documents.......................... 22 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS-Continued Page Chapter 3. Sectoral Impacts of Market Access Provisions................ 23 Analytical framework...................................... 23 Key assumptions and data................................... 24 Commission findings....................................... 28 Impact on U.S. imports, exports, employment, and welfare........ 28 Impact on U.S. exports................................ 29 Impact of the U.S.-Bahrain FTA on selected sectors................ 31 Impact on selected goods.................................. 33 Textile and apparel................................... 33 U.S. industry..................................... 33 Bahraini industry.................................. 34 Potential impact on U.S. trade flows................... 35 Impact on selected services................................ 37 Market overview..................................... 38 Overall effects of the FTA on services..................... 38 Impact of the FTA on U.S. imports of services for selected industries......................................... 42 Telecommunication services......................... 42 Banking and securities............................. 43 Insurance....................................... 43 Impact of the FTA on U.S. exports of services for selected industries......................................... 44 Telecommunication services......................... 44 Banking and securities............................. 45 Insurance....................................... 46 Literature review............................................ 47 Chapter 4. Impact of Trade Facilitation Provisions..................... 49 Introduction.............................................. 49 Transparency............................................. 49 Customs administration..................................... 50 Technical barriers to trade................................... 51 Electronic commerce....................................... 52 Sanitary and phytosanitary regulations......................... 52 Chapter 5. Impact of Provisions with Respect to the Regulatory Environment.............................................. 55 Safeguards/trade remedies................................. 55 Government procurement................................... 55 Intellectual property rights................................... 56 Current conditions of IPR protection in Bahrain................. 57 Copyrights, trademarks, and satellite program signals........ 58 Patents and trade secrets.............................. 59 Enforcement........................................ 61 Major achievements in IPR protection of the U.S.-Bahrain FTA..... 61 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS-Continued Page Chapter 5. –Continued Copyrights, trademarks, and satellite program signals........ 61 Patents and trade secrets.............................. 63 Enforcement........................................ 63 Potential effects on the U.S. economy........................ 64 Labor................................................... 65 Environment.............................................. 66 Dispute settlement......................................... 67 Chapter 6. Summary of View of Interested Parties..................... 69 Government of the Kingdom of Bahrain........................ 69 American Dehydrated Onion and Garlic Association............ 69 Consumers for World Trade............................... 70 International Intellectual Property Alliance..................... 70 U.S.-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement Coalition.................. 71 Appendices A. Request Letter............................................. A-1 B. Federal Register Notices.................................... B-1 C. Hearing Participants....................................... C-1 D. Technical Appendix........................................ D-1 Figures 1-1. Economic Profile of Bahrain.................................
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