The Most Essential and Authoritative
Source for Chinese Metals Market
Alumina & Aluminum Monthly December 2018 No.264
1651z165165165
Hosted by: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association INSIDE THIS ISSUE Published by: Beijing Antaike Information Co., Ltd. Highlight Chief Editors: XIONG Hui, YAO Xizhi China Henan International, Zhongwang and Yidian to jointly develop bauxite Executive Editor: HUANG Wei resource in Guinea……………………………………………………………...2 Research Team: CHEN Huan, HUO Yunbo, YUAN Yuan, Demand Balance SHEN Lingyan, CHAI Yuan China Primary Aluminum Supply/Demand Balance ………………….....…2 Sales Manager: LI Yuan Price Trend Tel: +86-10-6256 0921 Fax: +86-10-63971647 Aluminum price dropping on weak fundamentals………………………….3 Web site: http://www.antaike.com Import and Export Email: [email protected] Bauxite Imports and Price by Country in October 2018…………………….11 Address: 2nd floor, 12B Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, People's Republic of China News Post Code: 100814 Industrial Policy, International Trade, Cooperation SMB to invest USD3.0 billion in railway and alumina projects in Guinea…….17 Disclaimer: Bauxite & Alumina Whilst every effort has been made to prepare this report, Chongqing Bosai acquires Shandong Qixing Alumina Refinery……………….19 Beijing Antaike Information Co., Ltd. makes no warranty Aluminum of any kind in regard to the contents and does not accept Chinalco obtains 51% share of Yunnan Metallurgical Group………………….20 responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly, or indirectly, from the use of this report. Statistics of NBS, LME and SHFE Prices Output of key industries in China……………………………………………23 All Rights Reserved LME and SHFE Aluminum Price…………….………..………………………24 The contents of this report are for the sole use of the LME and SHFE Reported Aluminum Stocks……………………………..…..25 client and its employees and may not be transmitted in ATKASI, Imported Spot Alumina Arithmetic Average Price………..….25 any form whatsoever to third parties. Domestic Suppliers’ Quoted Prices of Aluminum Related Products…….26 ©2018 Beijing Antaike Information Co., Ltd.
This issue was dispatched on November 30, 2018
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Highlight
China Henan International, Zhongwang and Yidian to jointly develop bauxite resource in Guinea
China Henan International Cooperation Corporation, China Zhongwang Holdings Limited and Yidian Holding Group Co., Ltd. on November 22 signed a framework cooperation agreement to jointly develop bauxite resource in Guinea.
China Henan International Cooperation Corporation (CHICO) is a large-sized state-owned foreign economy & trade enterprise and owned by the government of Henan province. The company’s subsidiary Henan International Mining Co., Ltd. in October 2010 obtained the bauxite exploitation license at Boke of Guinea. The bauxite mining project has been operating smoothly and the project is expected to export 6.00 million tonnes of bauxite in 2018.
Under the coordination and support of the government of Henan province, the three companies decide to increase investment in the project to complete the industrial chain including bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminum smelting.
Yidian Holding Group Co., Ltd. is large-scale enterprise comprising of power generation, aluminum smelting, aluminum fabrication, carbon production, utilization of fly ash and so on. It has capacity of 2220 MW thermal power installed, 840,000 tpy primary aluminum, 250,000 tpy Haziliete (casting and rolling) aluminum sheet, etc.
Supply-Demand Balance China primary aluminum supply/demand balance in October 2018 (Unit: kt) 2018 June July August September October 2018 Output 36,670 3,082 3,192 3,141 3,047 3,146 Net import 60 3 3 3 3 5 Supply 36,730 3,085 3,195 3,144 3,047 3,146 Consumption 35,400 3,325 3,245 3,204 3,215 3,231 Market balance 1,330 -240 -50 -60 -165 -80 Sources: China Customs, Antaike
China Alumina Supply/Demand Balance in October 2018 (Unit: kt) 2017 Jan 18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 18 Output 70,400 5,780 5,190 5,850 5,960 6,210 6,070 6,140 6,130 6,020 6,161 Net import 2,810 70 100 10 80 -70 -70 -90 -20 -140 -80 Supply 73,210 5,860 5,290 5,860 6,040 6,140 6,000 6,040 6,110 5,890 6,080 Demand for metallurgical-grade 70,350 5,750 5,240 5,870 5,770 6,000 5,910 6,030 6,030 5,880 6,040 alumina Demand for chemical-grade 2,100 180 165 183 177 183 177 183 183 177 183 alumina Total demand 72,450 5,930 5,410 6,060 5,950 6,180 6,090 6,220 6,210 6,060 6,220 S/D balance 760 -70 -120 -190 90 -40 -90 -170 -100 -170 -140 Source: China Customs, Antaike
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Price Trend Aluminum price dropping on weak fundamentals SHFE aluminum price keeps dropping in November and it is expected that the weak fundamentals will continue to push down the price in the near term.
Under the current market condition, most of domestic aluminum smelters suffer big loss. Some medium and small sized aluminum smelters have reduced output in recent months. This month, the large-scale ones in Qinghai province begin to slash output.
The domestic demand will further decrease with the upcoming winter, the traditionally weak period for consumption of the light metal. The aluminum smelters will strive to reduce loss to pass winter. Globally, the transnational giants such as Foxconn, Ikea, Ford, Volkswagen, GM also shut down production lines in view of the dim economic picture.
Candlestick Chart of SHFE 3-Months Aluminum Futures Contract Price, Trade Volume, Open Interest (yuan/t, tax included; 10k lots)
Source: SHFE
SHFE 3-months aluminum price will move in 13,500-14,100 yuan/t and LME 3-months aluminum in USD1,900-2,100/t in December, Antaike forecasts.
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
SHFE, LME 3-Months Aluminum Futures Contract Price
18,000 2,600 2,500 17,000 2,400 2,300 16,000 2,200
15,000 2,100
2,000 USD/t 14,000 1,900 1,800
yuan/t (tax included) (tax yuan/t 13,000 1,700 1,600 12,000 1,500 11,000 1,400
SHFE 3-Months Al LME 3-Months Al
Sources: LME, SHFE
Premiums of Guangdong Nanhai, Shanghai Changjiang Spot Aluminum Price and SHFE Spot-Month VS SHFE 3-Month Aluminum Futures Contract Price (yuan/t, tax included) 200 14600
14400 100
14200 0 14000
-100 13800
-200 13600 Nanhai Changjiang SHFE spot-month SHFE 3-month Sources: SHFE, Antaike
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Price Ratio Of SHFE 3-Months Aluminum Futures Contract Price to LME 3-Months Aluminum, Middle Exchange Rate Of RMB against USD, Break-Even Point Of Importing Primary Aluminum from Foreign Country to China, Exporting Aluminum from China to Foreign Country
9 price ratio exchange rate 7
8.5 6.9
8 6.8
7.5 6.7
7 6.6
6.5 6.5
6 6.4
5.5 6.3
5 6.2
Actual Price Ratio Import Export RMB Middle Exchange Rate
Sources: LME, SHFE, People’s Bank of China Note: just for reference for arbitrage between LME and SHFE aluminum futures contracts Domestic alumina price edges down ATKASI alumina price rebounded in early November because of production cut of some alumina refineries and strong support from production cost, but resumed downward trend in late of the month mostly due to falling aluminum price. Most of the aluminum smelters have lost money and thus expected lower alumina price to help reduce loss. Daily Spot Price of Non-Chalco Alumina and ATKASI (yuan/t, tax included)
3350
3300
3250
3200
3150
3100
3050
3000
Henan Shandong Shanxi Guangxi ATKASI
Source: Antaike
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
On November 30, the quoted prices of the domestic alumina producers are: Shandong, 3,070-3,130 yuan/t yuan/t, down by 40-50 yuan/t from that at the end of October; Henan, 3,050-3,130 yuan/t, down 20 yuan/t; Shanxi, 3,040-3,120 yuan/t, down 10-30 yuan/t; Guangxi, 3,050-3,110 yuan/t, down 10-30 yuan/t; Guizhou, 3,060-3,100 yuan/t, down 30 yuan/t; Inner Mongolia, 3,040-3,090 yuan/t, down 40-50 yuan/t from a month earlier. The average price (ATKASI) is 3,085 yuan/t on November 30, down from 3,113 yuan/t at the end of October. The average monthly ATKASI is 3,163 yuan/t in November, up from 3,111 yuan/t in October It is expected that domestic alumina price will still edge down in the near term. Average Monthly Spot Price of Imported Alumina, ATKASI and Long-Term Contract Price (yuan/t, tax included) 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000
Imported ATKASI Long-Term Contract (17.3% SHFE 3M Al) Source: Antaike Domestic aluminum stocks The SHFE reported aluminum stocks stood at 750,229 tonnes on November 23, down from 814,042 tonnes at the end of October. The SHFE aluminum stocks have continued to decline in recent five months mainly due to strong export of the products. On the supply side, the growth of China’s primary aluminum output has come to an end owing to production cut of high-cost capacity in recent months. Thirdly, the aluminum stocks in Xinjiang expand and the shipment to the east region and other consuming reasons is delayed because of railway transportation problem. LME, SHFE Reported Aluminum Stocks (Unit: metric ton)
Sources: LME, SHFE
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Production According to statistics of Antaike, China’s primary aluminum output was 3,146 kt in October 2018, up by 4.4% from a year earlier. The average daily output was 101.484 kt in October and the annualized rate was 37.0416 million tonnes.
Annualized Rate of China’s Primary Aluminum Output and Y-o-Y Growth Rate million tonnes % 40 25
20 38
15 36 10 34 5
32 0
30 -5
Output Growth Rate
Source: Antaike.
According to statistics of Antaike, China’s alumina capacity was 83.35 million tpy at the end of October 2018, 72.50 million tpy of which was in operation, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.0%, 0.9 percentage points less than that for a month earlier. The output decreased because the alumina refineries of Jinjiang Group implemented the flexible production plan and Xinfa Jiaokou alumina refinery slashed output by 50% for environmental production.
Annualized Rate of China's Alumina Output and Y-o-Y Growth Rate million tonnes % 77 30 25 72 20 67 15 10 62 5 0 57 -5 52 -10
Output Growth Rate
Source: Antaike. According to statistics of Antaike, China’s alumina output was 6,161 kt in October 2018, up by 0.5% from that for the same period of last year. The average daily output was 198.74 kt in October 2018 and the annualized rate was 72.5408 million tonnes.
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Nonferrous Metals Peak-Avoiding Production Enterprise List of Shandong Binzhou The government of Binzhou city on November 26 published the Nonferrous Metals Peak-Avoiding Production Enterprise List, requiring the production facilities/production lines/process in the list to stop production in the heating season. (More details can be seen in the attachment)
Chiping Xinfa Huayu to reduce alumina production Chiping Xinfa Huayu Alumina Co., Ltd. is required to reduce output by 10% in the heating season from December 1, 2018 to January 31, 2019, according to a circular issued by the government of Chiping city. With a nameplate capacity of 4.40 million tpy, the alumina refinery is owned by the large-sized privately-owned Shandong Xinfa Group.
Besides, the local government also required two local carbon anode block plants to reduce output by 10%-17% in the period.
According to the circular, the local aluminum smelters and the other carbon plants can be exempt from production cut in the period. The aluminum smelters and the carbon plants are owned Shandong Xinfa.
Alumina refineries and aluminum smelters in Lvliang exempt from production cut The local alumina refineries and aluminum smelters in Lvliang prefecture basically reach the extra-low emission standard and can be exempt from production cut in heating season from November 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019, according to a circular issued by the government of Lvliang city.
Lvliang is one of the important production areas of alumina and aluminum in China thanks to rich bauxite resource. The prefecture includes Xiaoyi, Jiaokou, Xing counties and so on.
Henan Heungkong Wanji required to stop alumina production in heating season Henan Heungkong Wanji Aluminum Co., Ltd. (also called as Xiangjiang Wanji) is required to shut down all the three alumina production lines with a total capacity of 1.40 million tpy in the heating season from November 15, 2018 to March 15, 2019, according to source from the People’s Government of Luoyang city.
In fact, the alumina refinery closed an alumina production line in July 2018 due to low alumina price.
Located at Xin’an county of Luoyang city of Henan province, the alumina refinery is a joint venture of Guangzhou-headquartered Heungkong Group and Henan Wanji Group.
Heungkong Group was founded in 1990. The group now has 20,000 employees. Its business segments range from trade logistics, industrial development, healthcare, financial investments, education, development and construction. It is selected as one of the top 50 Chinese private enterprises.
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Import and Export Exports of primary aluminum, Al alloys and Al semis up 19.1% in January-October 2018 China exported 4.734 million tonnes of primary aluminum, aluminum alloys and aluminum semis in the first ten months of 2018, increasing by 19.1% from the same period of last year, according to source from the General Administration of Customs of P. R. China.
In October 2018 alone, the export was 482 thousand tonnes, down by 25kt from a month earlier. China’s exports of primary aluminum, aluminum alloys and aluminum semis Exports of primary Export quantity in the Cumulative export % YoY change for aluminum, aluminum month (kt) quantity, from January cumulative alloys and aluminum to the month (kt) semis January 2018 445 445 14.1 February 372 817 25.8 March 452 1,269 19.7 April 450 1,720 15.4 May 485 2,205 11.4 June 510 2,710 13.0 July 519 3,231 13.6 August 517 3,748 15.1 September 507 4,258 16.3 October 2018 482 4,734 19.1
China’s imports of aluminum scraps Imports of aluminum Import quantity in the Cumulative import % YoY change for scraps month (kt) quantity, from January cumulative to the month (kt) January 2018 190 190 10.9 February 120 310 -8.7 March 177 487 -7.6 April 130 620 -11.4 May 110 730 -18.0 June 110 840 -21.7 July 2018 120 960 -22.5 August 130 1,090 -23 September 100 1,191 -25.2 October 2018 92 1,284 -27.6
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
China’s imports of alumina. Imports of alumina Import quantity in the Cumulative import % YoY change for month (kt) quantity, from January cumulative to the month (kt) January 2018 74 74 -72 February 103 177 -65 March 8 185 -80 April 100 280 -76 May 20 310 -77 June 50 360 -74 July 10 365 -78 August 10 380 -81 September 30 410 -82 October 2018 48 458 -82
China’s exports of alumina. Exports of alumina Export quantity in the Cumulative export % YoY change for month (kt) quantity, from January cumulative to the month (kt) January 2018 4 4 -24 February 4 8 7 March 3 11 -12 April 20 31 60 May 90 121 402 June 118 239 772 July 104 344 1034 August 30 373 894 September 166 539 1181 October 2018 460 999 2035
Note: 1. Figures are provided by the General Administration of Customs of P. R. China 2. All Imports/exports of commodity are in physical weight.
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Bauxite Imports and Price by Country in October 2018 (CIF to Chinese Port) (Unit: tonne, USD/t)
(tonne, USD/t) Imports in Imports in %Change Price in Imports in Imports in %Change Price in Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18/17 Oct 18 Oct 17 Jan-Oct 17 Jan-Oct 17/16 Oct 17 India 50 552,395 -73.19 147.00 97,086 2,060,559 -48.28 37.20
Indonesia 442,929 5,449,632 868.09 50.49 126,380 562,926 - 54.72
Malaysia 48,406 344,105 -92.66 46.52 87,936 4,690,766 -30.98 40.04
Turkey 61,180 111,180 146289373.68 75.87 0 0.076 -99.999 -
Vietnam 466,823 74.87 0 266,949 489.95 -
Ghana 446,156 -37.85 112,587 717,852 -11.82 67.03
Guinea 2,545,776 31,516,217 44.70 65.62 1,649,594 21,780,257 154.05 55.77
Sierra Leone 0.065 -100.00 0 48,598 - -
Montenegro 337,182 -47.04 69,189 636,639 148.32 70.59
Brazil 146,097 1,126,226 -60.48 64.80 308,249 2,849,920 -12.93 66.05
Netherlands 0.01 -
Guyana 31 1,055 -69.22 642.09 0 3,427 29.793 -
Jamaica 82,409 847,464 362.11 59.86 29,916 183,391 - 59.33
Australia 2,682,118 25,169,228 22.10 44.93 1,864,723 20,613,486 16.59 45.24
Fiji 57,816 -51.23 59,828 118,538 104.26 43.45
Solomon Islands 113,528 1,345,606 25.78 48.11 51,900 1,069,828 625.34 53.00
Greece 27,609
Germany 0.1
Major Origins of Imported Alumina in October 2018 (Unit: tonne, USD)
Quantity in Value in Quantity in Value in Quantity % Change Value % Change (tone, USD) Oct 18 Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18/17 Jan-Oct 18/17
Australia 41,792 23,440,045 210,509 101,734,835 -80.79 -72.54
Indonesia 0 706 62,559 24,416,010 -89.47 -88.11
Jamaica 34,238 11,983,185 -50.37 -48.39
India 102 70,476 32,477 12,774,986 -85.49 -84.11
USA 175 1,355,963 32,263 20,774,168 245.36 107.83
Vietnam 21,942 8,163,308 -95.29 -94.90 France 2,508 1,926,477 21,703 19,066,029 24.14 46.32 Japan 1,507 3,479,013 18,683 36,775,022 20.64 21.73 Germany 1,588 3,183,143 18,662 36,749,966 17.80 11.80 Korea 345 342,985 3,863 3,314,663 135.36 125.57 Canada 58 98,464 736 1,841,033 104.99 227.28 Major Origins of Imported Primary Aluminum in October 2018 (Unit: tonne, USD)
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Quantity in Value in Quantity in Value in Quantity % Change Value % Change (tone, USD) Oct 18 Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18/17 Jan-Oct 18/17
Russia 12,696 27,000,013 23,264 52,093,966 98.02 115.51
Saudi Arabia 5,970 12,874,665 15,267 34,099,633 12758.19 15015.55
Australia 5 12,832 8,626 19,189,169 -33.70 -24.05
New Zealand 586 1,315,976 5,824 13,790,800 -38.73 -32.04
India 1 2,418 5,627 12,833,317 -41.17 -30.61
Oman 1,142 2,420,769 4,657 10,986,021 -44.13 -31.79
South Africa 477 1,125,092 3,084 6,813,315 -15.10 -0.05
Japan 18 437,557 290 4,067,099 31.75 59.69
Germany 41 516,249 344 4,064,611 6.27 6.16
Malaysia 1,098 2,606,971 -95.63 -94.83
United Arab Emirates 496 1,146,559 -80.40 -77.93
Imports and Exports of Al Products in October 2018 (The unit of the value is RMB in this table and will be returned to USD in the next monthly report)
Quantity in Quantity in Y-o-Y Value in Oct Value in Y-o-Y Import Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18 Jan- Oct 18 Jan-Oct
(Unit:) Tonne Tonne % RMB RMB % Bauxite 6,122,524 67,798,695 21.93 2,309,419,419 23,480,416,334 Alumina, except artificial corundum 48,150 458,224 -81.76 233,335,581 1,825,598,143 Aluminum hydroxide 3,172 31,689 4.16 25,751,747 235,343,971 Dry aluminum fluoride 9 146 76.95 626,650 8,136,114 Other aluminum fluoride 0 40 999,95 54 275,051 Artificial cryolite 502 27,353 -34.40 898,329 59,886,084 Aluminum chloride 37 1,216 -45.84 413,362 9,941,995 Unwrought aluminum (99.95% or above) 58 709 26.15 5,359,087 49,320,053 Other unwrought aluminum 20,886 68,286 -33.60 308,599,242 1,026,671,979 Unwrought aluminum alloys 6,688 59,893 11.65 102,872,775 924,240,814 Aluminum waste and scrap 92,238 1,284,363 -27.56 992,795,391 13,595,388,725 Primary Al Sub-total 20,944 68,995 -33.28 313,958,329 1,075,992,032 Sub-total 28,773 339,973 5.22 1,428,588,877 15,065,599,950 Powder 63 831 -32.91 8,578,003 91,949,514 Bar, rod, section 3,816 43,729 -4.73 192,793,080 2,011,348,637 Al semis Wire 972 9,348 0.04 39,085,514 362,662,631 Sheet & strip 17,406 221,774 6.58 475,665,755 5,795,232,751 Foil 5,949 57,278 14.78 654,946,725 6,176,955,224 Tube 568 7,012 -18.87 57,519,800 627,451,193 Other products (window, door, etc) 3,504 41,804 15.21 514,323,508 5,445,474,138
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Export
Bauxite 2,838 73,983 531.80 5,406,450 127,533,499 Alumina, except artificial corundum 460,072 998,949 2,034.63 1,630,400,467 3,494,609,142 Aluminum hydroxide 35,911 304,988 32.40 113,529,408 957,621,640 Dry aluminum fluoride 11,154 83,739 54.01 113,067,603 868,968,768 Other aluminum fluoride 40 593 15,948.04 336,742 4,557,704 Artificial cryolite 478 6,710 3.20 3,152,574 46,210,385 Aluminum chloride 1,502 12,003 -9.28 4,255,625 36,665,365 Unwrought aluminum (99.95% or above) 60 1,461 -23.87 1,417,670 33,785,547 Other unwrought aluminum 1,762 26,171 117.69 24,501,619 378,818,371 Unwrought aluminum alloys 44,026 410,583 -7.92 674,650,563 5,836,167,801 Aluminum waste and scrap 139 947 101.74 2,534,928 17,199,040 Primary Al Sub-total 1,822 27,631 98.20 25,919,289 412,603,918 Sub-total 435,958 4,296,266 22.18 8,570,748,929 82,303,769,838 Powder 578 8,485 3.40 16,736,786 229,199,040 Bar, rod, section 83,131 779,424 12.85 1,677,534,051 15,547,749,681 Al semis Wire 2,847 25,345 26.00 68,534,704 629,137,622 Sheet & strip 233,044 2,302,005 34.53 4,039,911,192 38,812,645,334 Foil 104,989 1,062,377 9.09 2,397,545,010 23,312,663,193 Tube 11,369 118,630 5.45 370,487,186 3,772,374,968 Other products ( window, door, etc) 189,389 1,895,035 8.56 5,950,554,989 56,789,239,235 Note: 1. Figures are provided by the General Administration of Customs of P. R. China 2. All Imports/exports of commodity are in physical weight.
Macroeconomic operation and money supply New yuan loans down in October China's new yuan-denominated loans amounted to 697 billion yuan (about 100 billion U.S. dollars) in October, down from 1.38 trillion yuan in September, according to data released by the People's Bank of China, the central bank.
M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, expanded by 8.0% year on year to 179.56 trillion yuan as of the end of October.
M1, a narrow measure of money supply which covers cash in circulation plus demand deposits, increased 2.7% year on year to 54.01 trillion yuan as of the end of October.
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
China’s New Yuan Loans, M1, M2
3000 85 80 2500 75 2000 70 65 1500 60 1000 55 50 500 45 0 40
New RMB loans (bln yuan) (M2-100 trillion yuan) M1 (trillion yuan)
Source: The People’s Bank of China Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate
Source: China Foreign Exchange Trade System & Nation Interbank Funding Center
Downstream industries and consumption Real estate industry The domestic real estate industry completed investment of 9.9325 trillion yuan with a year on year rise of 9.7% in January-October of 2018. The growth rate was 0.2 percentage points less than that for the first nine months of 2018, according to figures provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of P.R. China (NBS).
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
12.0 Investment Growth in Housing Projects in China (Unit: %)
10.0 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.1 9.3 8.0 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 6.0 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.5 5.8 5.4 4.0
The overall floor space of housing projects under construction for all real estate enterprises was 7.84425 billion square meters in January-October of 2018, a year-on-year growth of 4.3%. The growth rate was 0.4 percentage points high than that for the first nine months of 2018. Floor space starting in the period was 1.68754 billion square meters, up 16.3% year on year. The growth rate was 0.1 percentage points more than that for the first nine months of 2018. Floor space completed in the period was 573.92 million square meters, down 12.5% year on year, versus to a decline of 11.4% for the first nine months of 2018.
The floor space of marketable dwelling houses sold in January-October of 2018 totaled 1.33117 billion square meters, up 2.2% year on year. The growth rate was 0.7 percentage points lower than that for the first nine months of 2018.
30.0 % Y-o-Y Growth of Real Estate Industry Indexes
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0 under construction starting completed sales In January-October of 2018, the land space purchased by real estate enterprises stood at 219.63 million square meters, up 15.3% year on year. The growth rate was 0.4 percentage points less than that for the first nine months of 2018. The cost on purchasing land was 1.1695 trillion yuan, up 20.6% year on year. The growth rate was 2.1 percentage points lower than that for the first nine months of 2018.
The national housing development climate index was 101.94 in October 2018, 0.05 points lower than that for September 2018.
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Chart: China’s PMI and the National Housing Development Climate Index (after revising)
102.20 52.5%
102.00 52.0% 101.80
101.60 51.5% 101.40
101.20 51.0%
101.00 50.5% 100.80
100.60 50.0%
Housing Development Climate Index PMI
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of P.R. China (NBS) Auto output and sale Automobile output was 2.334 million units in China in October 2018, a drop of 10.1% from a year earlier. The sale amounted to 2.38 million units in October, down by 11.7% compared to the same time of last year, according to data provided by China Association of Automobile Manufacturing (CAAM). Automobile Output in China in October 2018 % Change % Change % Change Unit: thousand sets Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18 Oct 18/Sep 18 Oct 18/Oct 17 Jan-Oct 18/Jan-Oct 17 Total Output 2,334 22,826 -0.9 -10.1 -0.4 Passenger Car 2,002 19,350 -1.1 -10.0 -1.0 Sedan Car 990 9,402 -2.6 -5.8 -0.4 MPV 128 1,372 -13.8 -28.7 -16.7 SUV 855 8,227 3.5 -10.3 2.5 Cross Type Passenger Vehicle 30 349 -15.3 -28.2 -19.7 Commercial Vehicle 332 3,476 0.3 -10.3 3.4 Bus, Coach 43 382 -2.1 --9.8 -4.6 Truck, Van, Wagon 289 3,093 0.6 -10.4 4.5 China’s Automobile Output, Sale and Motorcycle Output, Sale (Unit: million)
3.5 2
3 1.5 2.5
2 1 1.5
1 0.5
Auto Output Auto Sale Motorcycle Output Motorcycle Sale
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Automobile Sale in China in October 2018 % Change % Change % Change Unit: thousand sets Oct 18 Jan-Oct 18 Oct 18/Sep 18 Oct 18/Oct 17 Jan-Oct 18/Jan-Oct 17 Total Sale 2,380 22,871 -0.6 -11.7 -0.1 Passenger Car 2,047 19,304 -0.7 -13.0 -1.0 Sedan Car 996 9,422 -1.0 -10.1 0.0 MPV 147 1,409 0.2 -22.4 -14.1 SUV 871 8,106 -0.2 -14.7 1.6 Cross Type Passenger Vehicle 33 367 -5.5 -5.3 -19.1 Commercial Vehicle 333 3,567 -0.1 -2.8 5.5 Bus, Coach 38 371 -8.0 --17.5 -6.4 Truck, Van, Wagon 295 3,196 1.0 --0.5 7.0 Motorcycle output was 1.1579 million units in China in October 2018, and the sale amounted to 1.1595 million units in the period, respectively down by 13.57% and 14.77% year on year, according to data provided by China Association of Automobile Manufacturing (CAAM).
Power Grid The investments in electric power grid projects amounted to 381.4 billion yuan in China in January-September 2018, down 7.6% year on year, according to source from China Electricity Council.
bln yuan Investments in Power Grid Projects in China and YoY Change 600 40.0% 30.0% 500 20.0% 400 10.0% 0.0% 300 -10.0% 200 -20.0% -30.0% 100 -40.0% 0 -50.0%
Investments Y-o-Y change
Source: China Electricity Council News Industrial Policy, Investment & Trade, International Cooperation
SMB to invest USD3.0 SMB recently reached an agreement with the government of Guinea to billion in railway and invest USD3.0 billion in railway, alumina refinery and infra-structural alumina projects in construction projects. Guinea Of which, the investment in the railway project is USD1.2 billion yuan. The length of the railway is 135 kilometers and it will connect the bauxite
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
mining area and wharf. The investment in the alumina project is USD700-900 million and the capacity is 1.00 million tonnes per year. The new bauxite mine is expected to begin production in 2022. The output will be 10.00 million tonnes in the first year and increase to 30.00 million tonnes in 2024. SMB is a joint venture of China Hongqiao Group Limited (the listing arm of Shandong Weiqiao Pioneering Group Co., Ltd.), China Shandong Yantai Port Corporation, France’s UMS (United Mining Supply), Singapore WINNING INTERNATIONAL GROUP.
Alufer Mining Limited Alufer Mining Limited recently announced that a ship loaded with the exports bauxite from first batch of bauxite from Guinea had already arrived at Qingdao port of Guinea to China Shandong province of China. The buyer is Chalco Shandong Branch. The company’s bauxite mine in Guinea began production on August 6, 2018. It is anticipated that the bauxite mine will gradually ramp up to full capacity of 5.50 million tpy in the future. Besides, the company also sell bauxite to the State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC).
Zibo Rundi Aluminum Zibo Rundi Aluminum Co., Ltd. on November 19, 2018 obtained the obtains bauxite mining mining license for two bauxite deposits from the government of Guinea, license in Guinea the company said. The life of the bauxite mining license is 25 years and can be extended. The two bauxite deposits are located at FRIA of BOKE. One of the two mining areas is 347.2km2 and the other is 491.43km2. The total bauxite reserve is more than 1.0 billion tonnes. According to the company’s development plan, the construction period is 24 months. Once the mining project comes on stream, the output will be 5.00 million tonnes in the first year and grow to 10,00 million tonnes in the second year. Founded in Zibo city of Shandong province in 2004, the company is a comprehensive holding company with aluminum industry as the core, covering mining, technology research and development, product manufacturing, domestic and foreign trade, internet platform, financial investment and other businesses. Its business covers over 10 countries including Britain, Guinea, Australia, Indonesia, etc.
Bauxite & Alumina
Shanxi discovers new The exploration project for bauxite resource at Lingshi county bauxite resource at recently passed exam by expert group organized by the Land and Lingshi Resource Office of Shanxi Province. The preliminary result show that there are over 30.0 million tonnes of bauxite Resource Reserve at
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Guangjia Village of the county. Next step, Geologists will continue to conduct prospecting for the resource in the region. Currently, there is an alumina refinery called as East Hope Jinzhong Aluminum Co., Ltd. at Lingshi.
Chalco Guangxi Branch Chalco Guangxi Branch, the leading alumina producer in China, said got 1.46 billion yuan of it earned over 1.46 billion yuan of profit in the first ten months of this profit in Jan-Oct 2018 year, achieving the profit target for the whole 2018 two months ahead of schedule. In the period, the company produced 2.1197 million tonnes of alumina, 41.81 tonnes of gallium and 565.4 kt of iron fines through magnetic selection from red mud.
Mengxi Ordos makes Mengxi Ordos Aluminum Co., Ltd. on October 1, 2018 put the success in changing improved and upgraded project of extracting alumina from coal ash into production technology of production. Since then, the company has produced about 9,000 tonnes of extracting alumina from aluminum hydroxide and 3,000 tonnes of alumina. Currently, the coal ash company produces 600 tonnes of alumina per day, reaching the designed capacity of 200 ktpy of the project, the company said. In fact, the company commissioned the project of extracting alumina from coal ash in October 2014, which adopted limestone sintering-pipelining alkali-dissolving. In 2017, the company decided to adopt Bayer technology to upgrade the project in a bid to completely meet the environmental protection requirement. The new technology of limestone sintering + Bayer process is the first one of extracting alumina from coal ash in China, the first one of its kind approved by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the first national demonstration project of using non-bauxite resource in alumina production. The company said it will continue to improve the production efficiency and prepare to develop clients to sell the product.
Chongqing Bosai acquires Chongqing Bosai Mining Co., Ltd. on November 7 reached an Shandong Qixing agreement with the government of Wudi county to acquire Shandong Alumina Refinery Qixing Alumina Refinery at a price of 1.2 billion yuan. After the acquisition, Chongqing Bosai will invest in expansion project to lift the capacity of the alumina refinery to 1.40 million tpy, up from the current 500 ktpy. Located at Wudi county in the north of Shandong province, the alumina refinery was owned by the former Shandong Qixing Group. Shandong Qixing was a large-sized privately-owned enterprise. It also had an aluminum smelter, called as Shandong Zouping Aluminum Co., Ltd.. The aluminum smelter shut down all aluminum reduction pots and
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
stopped production in August 2018 due to continuous loss in recent years. The aluminum smelting replacement quota was sold to Shandong Innovation Group. Chongqing Bosai in June this year took over Chalco Chongqing Alumina Co., Ltd.. The company is planning alumina projects in domestic littoral region and overseas market as well.
Shandong Xinfa acquires With the support and coordination of the government of Xinzhou city, 60% shares of Tongde Shandong Xinfa Group on October 28 acquires 60% of share of Shanxi Aluminum to resume Tongde Aluminum Co., Ltd. from Shanxi Huayu Group (30%) and construction of alumina Shenzhen Oriental Patron Investment Co., Ltd. (30%), while Shanxi project Yangquan Coal Industrial Group buys the remaining 40% share of Tongde Aluminum from Shanxi Tongmei Group. The partners agree to resume construction of the alumina project at Baode county of Shanxi province. The construction started in August 2011. The project was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in July 2011. However, the project was suspended due to economic factor such as low alumina price over the past few years. According to the development plan, Shanxi Tongde Aluminum Co., Ltd. will be developed into a production base with capacity of 2.30 million tonnes of bauxite, 1.00 million tonnes of alumina, 400 ktpy of primary aluminum, 200 ktpy aluminum fabricated products, and 5.00 million tpy of coal and 1200 MW electric power, as well as 1.00 million tpy coking coal, etc. Of which, the investment for the bauxite and alumina project is 5.2 billion yuan.
Aluminum
Chinalco obtains 51% The State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration share of Yunnan Commission of Yunnan Provincial People’s Government on November Metallurgical Group 13 completed the free transfer of 51% share of Yunnan Metallurgical Group to China Copper Co., Ltd.. Yunnan Metallurgical Group now holds 42.57% share of Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. and 38.19% of Chihong Zn&Ge Co., Ltd.; while China Copper Co., Ltd. is wholly owned by Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco). After the free transfer of the state-owned assets, the actual controller of Yunnan Aluminum and Chihong Zn&Ge Co., Ltd. is the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.
Yunnan Aluminum Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. on November 16 announced that the increases investment in company and the government of Zhaotong city agree to jointly inject aluminum smelting project more funds in the joint venture called as Yunlv Haixin Aluminum Co.,
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Ltd. for the aluminum smelting project. Yunnan Aluminum will invest 1.9 billion yuan and the local government inject 650 billion yuan into Yunlv Haixin. After the increasing investment, Yunnan Aluminum will hold 71.25% of stake in Yunlv Haixin; the local government, 25.00%; the remaining share is owned by a local company. In September 2015, Yunnan Aluminum and the local government reached an agreement to establish the joint venture and fund the aluminum smelting project with a capacity of 700 ktpy. The stage 1 capacity is 350 ktpy and the stage 1 investment is 3.5 billion yuan. Construction of the stage 1 project began at Zhaoyang industrial park of Ludian county of Zhaotong city, in the northeast of Yunnan province in September 2016. it was expected that the stage 1 project adopting 400 KA technology would come on stream at the end of 2017. The stage 1 was finished in early 2018. However, the commissioning was delayed mainly due to weak aluminum price. In August 2018, Yunlv Haixin began aluminum production. With the new fund injected, Yunlv Haixin’s stage 2 is expected to start in the near term.
Henan Wanji aluminum The two aluminum smelters of Henan Wanji Group have finished the smelters realize nearly zero upgrading and improvement in flue gas systems and realized nearly emission of flue gas zero emission of flue gas pollutant, according to source from the pollutant, exempt from company. production cut in heating The SO2 content of flue gas in the outlet of the systems is not more season than 35 mg/m3 and the amount of smoke dust (particulate) in the outlet of the systems is not more than 5 mg/m3; which is far less than the special atmospheric pollution emissions limits (sulfur dioxide, 100 mg/m3; particulate, 10 mg/m3) for the aluminum smelting industry. According to the local environmental production policy, the two aluminum smelters with a combined capacity of 650 ktpy can be exempt from production cut and continue to maintain normal operation in the heating season. In recent few years, the company has invested 1.8 billion yuan in environmental protection project for its power plants, carbon plants and aluminum smelters, and made great progress.
Henan Zhongfu to build Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. on November 11 reached an aluminum smelter in agreement with the government of Guangyuan city to build an Guangyuan aluminum smelter in Guangyuan city of Sichuan province, according to source from the local government. The designed capacity of the aluminum smelter is 500 ktpy and the project will be finished by two stages. Of which, the stage 1 investment
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
is 1.8 billion yuan and the capacity is 250 ktpy. The associated projects include an 200 ktpy aluminum alloy billet and 50 ktpy casting rolling sheet project, and the investment in the stage 1 associated projects is 500 million yuan. Construction of the stage 1 will begin in November 2018 and the stage 1 will go into production in September 2019. It is expected that the stage 1 will achieve 6.0 billion yuan of sale revenue, 150 million yuan of tax each year, and provide 700 job opportunities. There are rich hydropower resources in Sichuan. The power source of the project will come from local hydropower stations.
Statistics of NBS, LME and SHFE Prices China’s Output of Alumina, Primary Aluminum, Aluminum Alloy and Semis October 18 January -October 18 October 18/17 January-October 18/17 Product (million tonnes) (million tonnes) (% Change) (% Change)
Alumina 5.651 56.581 8.7 3.9
Primary Aluminum 2.715 27.714 6.8 4.4
Aluminum Alloy 0.679 6.570 2.7 0.4
Aluminum Semis 3.944 36.869 2.7 -1.9
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of P.R. China (NBS) Note: Output of aluminum semis include duplicated counting of aluminum semis as intermediate inputs used for producing other types of aluminum semis.
million tonnes China's Monthly Output of Alumina, Primary Aluminum and Aluminum Semis 7
6 5
4
3
2 1 0
alumina aluminum semis
Sources: NBS Note: NBS does not publish the output of Jan. and Feb separately due to Chinese Spring Festival holiday. The output of Jan. and Feb. 2018 were equal to Jan-Feb./(31+28)*31 and Jan-Feb./(31+28)*28, respectively.
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Output of Key Industries in China in January-October 2018 Unit: Output Output % Change % Change
Products October 18 January-October18 October 18/17 January-October18/17
Coal (mln tonne) 305.131 2898.892 8.0 5.4
Crude oil (mln tonne) 16.089 157.214 0.3 -1.7
Natural gas (bln cube meter) 13.42 129.53 7.5 6.3
Processing amount of crude oil (mln tonne) 52.784 505.098 4.6 7.8
Gasoline (mln tonne) 12.398 116.539 8.2 6.7
Kerosene (mln tonne) 3.941 39.855 2.7 13.1
Diesel oil (mln tonne) 14.926 148.21 -7.9 -1.1
Fuel oil (mln tonne) 2.033 20.061 -14.0 -10.8
Petroleum coke (mln tonne) 2.278 22.184 -2.8 -0.4
Petroleum asphalt (mln tonne) 4.221 34.146 12.8 6.1
Coking coal (mln tonne) 36.608 359.526 4.5 -1.0
Iron ores (mln tonne) 68.822 641.839 0.9 -2.3
Cement (mln tonne) 220.432 1794.634 13.1 2.6
Flat glass (mln weighting box) 73.619 721.241 4.3 1.3
Pig iron (mln tonne) 67.736 645.064 7.3 1.7
Crude steel (mln tonne) 82.552 782.458 9.1 6.4
Rolled steel (mln tonne) 98.024 918.439 11.5 7.8
Reinforcing steel bar l (mln tonne) 19.125 172.114 15.0 7.7
Ten kinds of nonferrous metals (mln tonne) 4.522 44.785 5.5 4.4
Copper semis (mln tonne) 1.388 13.912 1.7 11.2
Metallurgical equipment (tonne) 50409.8 504729 12.4 34.5
Air-pollution treating equipment(unit) 22617 212631 2.8 -1.0
Industrial robot (set) 9590 118452 -3.3 8.7
Automobile (mln units) 2.37 23.226 -9.2 -0.4
Electric multiple units (bullet train) (set) 258 1957 -14.6 -1.1
Electricity generation equipment (mln kw) 8.595 89.364 -13.0 -7.0
Alternating current motor (mln kw) 22.172 221.852 9.3 7.3
Lithium ion battery (mln units) 1144.743 11390.14 11.6 11.0
Solar cell (photovoltaic cell) (mln kW0 8.314 77.001 19.4 7.9
Household refrigerator (mln units) 6.854 66.877 5.2 2.2
Household Ice-box (mln units) 1.265 13.753 2.2 2.1
Air conditioner (mln units) 13.568 171.755 -0.4 10.6
Household washing machine (mln units) 6.62 58.112 4.0 0.4
Integrated computer (mln units) 30.941 284.556 3.1 5.1
Microcomputer equipment (mln units) 28.243 248.535 9.0 -1.8
Mobile phone (mln units) 154.485 1430.719 -11.6 -4.0
Color television (mln units) 20.783 162.657 17.0 15.7
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
Integrated circuit (bln units) 13.01 142.2 -7.3 9.8
Electric power (bln kWh) 533.02 5581.63 4.8 7.2
Of which: coal-fired power (bln kWh) 362.94 4068.56 3.0 6.6
hydropower (bln kWh) 112.12 941.84 6.2 4.6
nuclear power (bln kWh) 25.18 234.05 25.1 15.0
wind power (bln kWh) 24.81 262.45 4.2 18.8
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of P. R. China (NBS)
LME and SHFE Aluminum Trade Volume Weighted Average Price LME: USD/t SHFE: yuan/t(tax included) LME cash LME 3-month SHFE spot month SHFE 3- month
2013 average 1,846 1,888 14,561 14,592
2014 average 1,866 1,893 13,604 13,705
2015 average 1,663 1,682 12,279 12,300
2016 average 1,604 1,605 12,261 12,101
Change Average 16 /15 -3.6% -4.6% -0.1% -1.6%
January 2017 1,790 1,786 12,771 12,932
February 1,856 1,866 13,584 13,973
March 1,901 1,911 13,958 13,945
April 1,931 1,941 13,770 14,085
May 1,914 1,917 14,155 14,087
June 1,886 1,892 13,874 13,829
July 1,903 1,921 13,857 14,177
August 2,030 2,035 14,597 15,612
September 2,100 2,125 16,267 16,465
October 2,113 2,148 16,468 16,592
November 2,101 2,117 16,099 16,053
December 2017 2,070 2,087 14,738 14,619
Sources: SHFE, LME Note: SHFE began publishing the monthly settlement reference price data in August 2017 and stopped publishing the trade volume weighted average price data in January 2018.
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
LME Aluminum Trade Volume Weighted Average Price and SHFE Settlement Reference Price LME: USD/t SHFE: yuan/t(tax included)
LME cash LME 3-month SHFE spot month SHFE 3- month
August 2017 2,030 2,035 14,801 14,989
September 2,100 2,125 16,271 16,460
October 2,113 2,148 16,392 16,584
November 2,101 2,117 15,946 16,129
December 2017 2,070 2,087 14,559 14,774
January 2018 2,214 2,221 14,771 14,972
February 2,185 2,173 14,439 14,615
March 2,076 2,094 14,103 14,276
April 2,246 2,245 13,972 14,088
May 2,290 2,288 14,593 14,737
June 2,240 2,237 14,656 14,800
July 2,098 2,076 14,019 14,155
August 2,045 2,070 14,301 14,447
September 2,023 2,055 14,611 14,725
October 2,034 2,045 14,421 14,471
November 2018 13,998 14,018
LME and SHFE Reported Aluminum Stocks in Late of the Period (kt) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18
LME (kt) 4,970 5,217 5,467 4,210 2,914 2,206 1,101 1,071 991 1,049 1,068
SHFE (kt) 208 442 181 207 296 101 754 882 832 814 750
Sources: SHFE, LME
Aluminum Arithmetic Average Price (A00, 99.7%) on Chinese Spot Markets (yuan/t, tax included) Market H1 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 H2 17 2017 Q1 18 Q2 18 H1 18 Q3 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov18
Nanhai 13,687 15,358 15,177 15,271 14,499 14,223 14,497 14,361 14,459 14,660 14,216 13,827
Changjiang 13,617 15,306 15,125 15,219 14,438 14,153 14,460 14,308 14,346 14,547 14,174 13,762
Note: Guangzhou Nanhai Nonferrous Metals Spot Market (Guangzhou) is located in Guangdong Province, South China. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Spot Market (Changjiang) is located in Shanghai City, East China.
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Alumina & Aluminum Monthly
ATKASI and Imported Spot Alumina Arithmetic Average Price (yuan/t, tax included) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jul 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18
ATKASI 2,781 2,611 2,498 2,540 2,354 2,079 2,904 2,842 3,287 3,111 3,163
Imported 2,975 2,705 2,622 2,624 2,484 2,197 3,093 3,100 3,450 3,450 3,450
Note: ATKASI is the short for Antaike Alumina Spot Index. It is the average price of non-Chalco alumina producers in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and Guangxi regions. The imported alumina price is the CIF price of imported alumina delivered at Lianyungang port in Jiangsu province, the largest port for handling imported alumina in China in recent years.
Domestic Suppliers’ Quoted Prices of Aluminum Related Products (yuan/t, tax included) Products Company/Region Price Date Primary aluminum ingot A00 China Hongqiao Group Limited (Binzhou city of Shandong province) 13,770 November 21, 2018 Primary aluminum ingot A00 Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (in east region such as Jiangsu) 13,760 November 21, 2018 Primary aluminum ingot A00 Chalco (south region such as Guangdong) 13,840 November 21, 2018 Primary aluminum ingot A00 Chalco (southwest region such as Guizhou) 13,730 November 21, 2018 Primary aluminum ingot A00 Chalco (central region such as Henan) 13,770 November 21, 2018 Aluminum hydroxide Chalco Henan Branch (Zhengzhou city of Henan province) 2,115 November 14, 2018 Carbon anode block Shandong province 3,750 November 15, 2018 Carbon anode block Henan province 3,800 November 15, 2018 Carbon anode block Gansu province 3,900 November 15, 2018 Carbon anode block Guangxi region 4,100 November 15, 2018 Carbon anode block Inner Mongolia region 3,850 November 15, 2018 Cryolite Henan province 6,500-7,200 November 21, 2018 Aluminum fluoride Henan province 11,500 – 12,000 November 21, 2018 32% liquid caustic soda Shandong province 880-1,020 November 21, 2018 Power coal (5500 kcal) Qinhuangdao port (Hebei province) 625-630 November 21, 2018 Source: Antaike
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