Online meetings on measuring poverty and inequality Geneva, Switzerland, 2-4 December 2020

Urbanization as an Accelerator of Inclusive and Sustainable Development in ,

Ms. Elena Danilova-Cross , Ms. Irina Gorunova and Mr Alexandr Beliy, UNDP By 2050 Kazakhstan intends to: • 4.5 increase in GDP per capita • Halve its energy consumption • 50% increase of SME in GDP • Non-oil exports from 13 to 70% • Increase urbanization from 56% to 70% Quantitative analysis reviewed 190 urban-level indicators for the . Urban-Adjusted HDI and the Habitat Commitment Index Data processing 6 Urban months averages 14% 190 Discarded indicators indicators 49% reviewed 37% City-level data 34 indicators used Tools used to assess urban performance in Kazakhstan

Urban Adjusted The Habitat Human Commitment Development Index (HCI) Index (UA-HDI)

Urban areas in 16 regions 30 Major Cities The Urban-Adjusted Human Development Index (UA-HDI)

Rests on the three pillars of the original HDI Includes a fourth dimension: the built environment

LONG AND LIVING BUILT DIMENSIONS KNOWLEDGE HEALTY LIVES STANDARD ENVIRONMENT Higher Education Investment in Life expectancy Average Income Coverage Fixed Assets

Infant Mortality Poverty Line Green Space INDICATORS Public vs Private Mortality Causes Transport (circulatory, respiratory, digestive system, or Access and Quality of cancer) Services (water, heat, sanitation) RELATED 3 4 1, 8 6, 9, 11, 13, 15 SDGs Tools used to assess urban performance in Kazakhstan

Urban Adjusted The Habitat Human Commitment Development Index (HCI) Index (UA-HDI)

Urban areas in 16 regions 30 Major Cities The Habitat Commitment Index (HCI) Findings Southern and northern regions have lower UA-HDI scores than regions in the center, the east, and the west.

North Kazakhstan

Kostanay Akmola

West Kazakhstan

East Kazakhstan

Aktobe Mangystau Jambyl

South Kazakhstan This is in part because of low scores in the built environment: Green space, public transport, infrastructure investment

Green space Public Transport Infrastructure investment • Average share in Kazakhstan: 5 percent • Increasing car ownership • Crumbling infrastructure in urgent need for repair • European cities: 15 percent • Insufficient investment in public transport City Rankings (HCI): Performance based on local capacity Cities in the east and the west struggle most.

Petropavlovsk

Insufficient Crumbling basic city data Rudnenskaya services and low Lysakovsk Pavlodar quality urban form Aksu Astana

Arkalyk Aktobe Saran Karaganda Shakhtynsk Zyryanosk

Zhezkazgan Satpaev Balkash

Taldykorgan HCI Rank 1-6 7-12 Almaty City 13-18 High gender Turkestan 19-24 pay gap Arys 25-30

This map shows the spatial distribution of the 30 cities across Kazakhstan with color classification representing the relative HCI rankings. The discrepancy between HCI and the UA-HDI scores suggests that smaller and politically less significant cities perform lower.

Petropavlovsk

Kokshetau Kostanay Rudnenskaya Pavlodar Lysakovsk Stepnogorsk Aksu

Astana

Arkalyk Aktobe Saran Karaganda Semey Shakhtynsk Zyryanosk

Zhezkazgan Satpaev

Balkash

Taldykorgan

Kyzylorda

Aktau Kentau Kapchagay Taraz Zhanaozen Turkestan Almaty City

Arys Shymkent Qualitative analysis included 70 interviews and analysis of more than 1,400 micronarratives in three cities City Life stories: micronarratives

Visualization of answers to the question: “Do you believe your example will influence the problem-solving in your city?” - Number of respondents and gender breakout by city

IMPROVE

WORSEN PETROPAVLOSK STEPNOGORSK SHYMKENT

55% 31% 48%

45% 69% 52%

n = 211 n = 211 n = 1006

Source: UNDP-CO with SenseMaker (2018-2019) City stories: interviews

“I like my house (especially if “Approximately 15 people live in this house. It “I moved to Petropavlosk I have internet), my school, has 10 rooms. Each family is like a from Akmola, there was no government. In this one, grandmother Zhuldyz and my city. My favorite place central heating in my town. I is our President. Shymkent is so big that we in Stepnogorsk is the Happy say the whole population of Kazakhstan was am very happy here because Mall. I like it because I go born here… My main business is gravel mining I have a lot of support not there with friends and have for construction… Akimats live in their own only to continue my training fun… I play dombra, and I world, we seldom interact with them. But we but to help other athletes with like to sing. I want to be a pop businesspeople are free to develop, permits disabilities”. singer when I grow up”. are easy to get, and there are many subsidies Sergei Kharlamov, Aiman, Stepnogorsk available.” Paralympic athlete and coach Erasyl, elder son, Shymkent

Thank you!