2013-2014 inside this issue: Commentary........ page 6 Article 1............... pg 6 Article 2................ pg 6 Feature................ pg 10 Feature.................. pg 6 Feature................... pg 6 Q&A................ pg 10 Q&A...............pg 10 Donations provided in support of the Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy are tax deductible as a nonprofit gift under Harvard University’s IRS 501 (c) (3) status. Contributions should specify “for use only by the Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy” in order to facilitate the required accounting procedures. All views expressed in the Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy are those of the authors or interviewees only and do not represent the views of Harvard University, the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, the staff of the Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, the Executive Advisory Board of the Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, or any associates of the journal. © 2014 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. All rights reserved. Except as otherwise specified, no article or portion herein is to be reproduced or adapted to other works without the expressed written consent of the editors of the Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy. ISSN: 2165-9117 staff acknowledgments EDITORS-IN-CHIEF he Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy would be remiss were it not to recog- Colin Eide T nize a number of individuals and institutions whose Averell Schmidt support proved invaluable to the production of this third edition. These include Martha Foley, publisher; MANAGING EDITORS Richard Parker, faculty advisor; and the HKS Jour- Jennifer Rowland nals Office, without whose patient guidance none of Sarath Ganji this would have been possible. Additionally, we would Chrissy Bishai like to thank Hilary Rantisi, Krysten Hartman, and Nada Zohdy the entire Middle East Initiative for their generous contribution to the journal’s long-term sustainability ASSOCIATE EDITORS and strategic vision; as well as Greg Harris, Jeffrey Seglin, and all those who participated in this fall’s Ed- Shirin Barol itors’ Workshops. We would especially like to thank Ali Gokpinar our staff for its commitment, hard work, and atten- Delphine O tiveness to detail, consistently demonstrated through- Janan Omar out the editing process. Jennifer Quigley-Jones Zane Preston 4 Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy 2013-2014 ◆ Volume III 5 from the editors... e are pleased to present the third edition of the the sole driver of Islamist political parties in Tunisia, WHarvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Pol- focusing us instead on their internal debates and icy. This volume is being published at a time of rapid political acumen. John Strickland points us to an transformation in the Middle East and North Africa. economic transformation with global consequences The euphoric uprisings of 2011 have met with fierce taking place in the region’s skies: the growth of Gulf resistance from resilient autocrats and the complex airlines. Lastly, spanning the politics of the Palestinian realities of reshuffled domestic politics. With corrup- Authority, the political economy of oil and gas, and tion scandals threatening the long-venerated Turkish the underpinnings of the region’s grassroots political model, an Egyptian military reasserting itself in polit- movements, this year’s staff interviews offer fresh ical life, and heated tribal disputes compromising an perspectives on pressing issues. already fragile Libyan state, which way the region is This year also marks the launch of our new website: headed remains altogether unclear. www.hksjmepp.com. We believe that now more than These volatile domestic transformations coincide ever, politics and public policy in the Middle East with regional diplomatic realignments. Nuclear and North Africa require constant engagement and diplomacy between Iran and the West has complicated assessment. For this, an annual publication alone is not the relationship between Washington and its sufficient. Our website is a forum in which to engage traditional allies in Israel and the Gulf. The Obama the policy and political issues of the region as they administration’s hesitance to intervene militarily in evolve in real time. It is also a place for us to expand Syria has at times further strained these ties. Meanwhile, the conversation beyond politics to questions of the unprecedented diffusion of Syrian refugees society, history, and even art. We envision this website risks destabilizing neighboring states and igniting a as a valuable extension of—and complement to—the region-wide conflagration. This year’s Journal sheds debate presented each year in our print publication. light on many of the dynamics underlying what we see We invite you to read, comment, and contribute in as a larger regional transformation. the coming weeks, months, and years. Only through Ibrahim Sharqieh opens the Journal with active debate and constructive engagement will we a commentary on the often overlooked plight of move toward sound policies capable of overcoming Palestinian “double refugees”—those first displaced the momentous challenges facing the region. It is an by conflict with Israel, displaced again by conflict in exciting time here at the Journal, and we hope you will Syria. Matthew Levitt provides our first feature join the conversation. article investigating the evolving strategic relationship between Hezbollah and Iran. Denise Natali analyzes the dynamics—new and old—of transborder Kurdish Colin Eide & Averell Schmidt politics. Todd M. Johnson and Gina A. Zurlo Editors-in-Chief focus our attention on demographic trends behind the Cambridge, MA, May 2014 flight of the region’s Christian communities. Karina Piser helps dispel the popular narrative of religion as 6 Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy 2013-2014 ◆ Volume III 7 call for submissions contents DEADLINE: NOVEMBER 30, 2014 The Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy (JMEPP) is accepting submissions for its print and online publications. JMEPP COMMENTARY Preventing a New Displacement for is a nonpartisan policy review published at the John F. Kennedy 10 the Palestinian Double Refugees School of Government at Harvard University. The Journal presents a By Ibrahim Sharqieh diversity of advanced scholarship on issues of policy relevance to the contemporary Middle East and North Africa. FEATURES Submissions may discuss trends in politics, economics, development, Hezbollah and Iran’s Strategic Partnership military affairs, international relations, religion, or culture as they relate 16 By Matthew Levitt to public policy issues within the region. Transborder Kurdish Politics: Unity or If you plan to submit, please send an initial abstract of your proposed 28 Division? By Denise Natali work to [email protected] Ongoing Exodus: Tracking the Emigration 39 of Christians from the Middle East submission guidelines By Todd M. Johnson and Gina A. Zurlo JMEPP is seeking submissions for both its print and online publications. Balancing Islam and Political Contestation Appropriate submissions for the print edition include feature articles 50 in Post-Ben Ali Tunisia (1000-2,500 words), commentaries (500-1,500 words), and book By Karina Piser reviews (500-1,500 words). From Modest Beginnings: The Growth Appropriate submissions for the online edition will be fewer than 60 of Civil Aviation in the Middle East 1,000 words and may include commentaries and opinion pieces, news By John Strickland analyses, art and cultural reviews, as well as other types of analytic or creative content that provide new perspectives on political issues and policy challenges facing the region today. INTERVIEWS Breaking the Peace Negotiations Stalemate: An Interview with Dr. Hanan Ashrawi All submissions must be formatted in Microsoft Word (.doc or 69 By Colin Eide .docx) using the Chicago Manual of Style with citations provided as endnotes. All figures, tables, and charts must be submitted as separate, high-resolution files. Please submit a cover letter with your name, title Changing Dynamics in the Gulf: An and affiliation, mailing address, e-mail address, and daytime phone 73 Interview with Dr. Adnan Shihab-Eldin number. All work must be submitted to [email protected]. By Sarath Ganji For more information, please visit our website: www.hksjmepp.com Contextualizing the Arab Awakenings: 77 An Interview with Srjda Popovic By Nada Zohdy 2013-2014 ◆ Volume III 9 Preventing a New Displacement pushed them from one place to accommodate them in special another. Syria was one of the camps like Al-Zaatari, it has for the Palestinian Double main destinations for displaced established strict procedures that Palestinians. Approximately make it nearly impossible for 540,000 Palestinian refugees Palestinians to gain entry. Some Refugees By Ibrahim Sharqieh lived in Syria before the fighting of the Palestinians that have began over three years ago. Most been admitted are constrained of them have now experienced to the campus of a converted alking to people in the narrow remain are trapped, victims of an the bitterness of a second technical college—an area Tstreets of Ayn al-Hilwe—the increasingly strict blockade. The displacement, and the conflict has called Cyber City—where their largest Palestinian refugee camp pro-Assad factions surrounding turned many of them into “double movement is tightly controlled