COMMENTARY

the character Arturo Ui on the model of The Resistible Rise of a typical small-time mobster who takes over the city’s grocery trade, by aligning Narendra Modi with a corrupt local administration and by ruthlessly destroying all opposition. We also discover shades of the well-known Sumanta Banerjee contemporary mafi a don Al Capone. It was a satirical allegory of Hitler’s rise A rereading of Bertolt Brecht’s t takes a great deal of optimism to to power, which was taking place in The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui imagine the next government at the Germany at the same time. But the mes- (1941) and Sinclair Lewis’s Icentre without the disquietingly loom- sage of Brecht’s play moves beyond the ing presence of Narendra Modi. Yet, such contemporaneity of his days. We recog- It Can’t Happen Here (1935) is an eventuality could have been prevented, nise in Arturo Ui the all too familiar local helpful in understanding the and its onward rush can still be resisted. gangster-cum-politician who gets elected social psyche in today that We are paying the price for forgetting a to today’s Indian Parliament. We discern is being moulded by Narendra not too distant past. today the same fears and compulsions The heading of this article is a re- among the common citizens, whom Brecht Modi and is greasing his – and his phrasing of the title of Bertolt Brecht’s portrayed as victims of economic reces- party’s – path to power. play The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui. sion, who were either frightened into It can happen here. Bertolt wrote it in 1941 after escaping submission to Arturo Ui, or lured by from Germany, and while in exile in Hel- money to join his gang. sinki, waiting for a visa to enter the Unit- Brecht probes into this mass psychology ed States (US). Curiously enough, during that bolsters fascism, by pointing to the Brecht’s stay in the US (1941-47), the play propensity among the underprivileged to was never staged there. Another work of respect and worship the local gangster, fi ction – this time by a famous American who enjoys power at the micro level author – shared a similar fate of boycott thanks to the support that he gets from by the establishment in his country. This those in power at the macro level. Yet, was the novel, It Can’t Happen Here, Brecht reminds us, the rise of Arturo Ui written by Sinclair Lewis in 1935. Both (alias Hitler) could not have been possi- the play and the novel were written dur- ble without the connivance of the com- ing a period which saw the rise of Nazism mon people and their local politicians. and its consolidation as a ruling power All that is necessary for the triumph of in Germany. such creatures is that the majority of A rereading of the two may help us people hesitate to oppose them, and today to understand the social psyche thereby acquiesce in their rise. in India that is being moulded by But it is not popular opposition alone Narendra Modi, and which in its turn that can resist the rise of the types of is greasing his – and his party’s – path Arturo Ui. It is also the responsibility to power. The rereading should also of states which swear by democracy, to awaken us to the need for resisting in oppose fascism. When Bertolt Brecht India the repetition of a political experi- wrote this play on his way to the US, he ment that gained currency in Germany had the American audience in mind, and Italy during 1930-40, but which and expected them to understand what ultimately ended up in a global disaster. was happening in Germany. He tried to Thankfully, the Hindu right has not present it in terms of the American experi- yet been able to assume that monstrous ence of mobster politics, so that they could global dimension. pressurise their government to resist Hitler. The US till then had remained a The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui Sumanta Banerjee ([email protected]) silent spectator to Hitler’s genocide of is a long-time contributor to EPW and is best To come back to Brecht’s play, signifi - Jews within Germany, and increasing known for his book In the Wake of Naxalbari: cantly enough, he chose for his hero an territorial ambitions abroad – in the sur- A History of the Naxalite Movement in India American gangster. He situated his story reptitious hope that Hitler would destroy (1980). in Chicago of the 1930s, and moulded its main enemy, the Soviet Union. It was

10 may 3, 2014 vol xlIX no 18 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY only after the Japanese attack on Pearl 1950s (named after the Republican sena- bombast of defending the nation to draw Harbour in December 1941 that the US tor who unleashed a ruthless campaign support from the armed forces and their joined the war. Not surprisingly there- against communists and liberals, and top brass, and invokes his childhood fore, as mentioned earlier, this play of persecuted eminent writers like Lillian memories as a chai-wala to solicit votes Brecht’s was never staged in the US dur- Hellman and fi lm personalities like from the poor. Like his German and ing the 1940s. It cut too close to the Charles Chaplin). Italian predecessors, he also uses his foot bones of the ruling syndicate of US sena- Sinclair Lewis, when writing his novel soldiers – the Rashtriya Swayamsevak tors and the mafi a. in 1935, had a premonition of the things Sangh (RSS)-Bajrang Dal goons – to bull- that were coming. Observing from close doze into submission those who o ppose It Can’t Happen Here quarters his contemporary American him. He eminently fi ts the standards The next work of fi ction that I am taking middle classes, he could discern their laid down in an ancient Sanskrit proverb: up was written by the American author smug self-contentedness and indifference “Manasya-anyad, bachasya-anyat, kar- Sinclair Lewis who won the Nobel Prize in in the face of the growth of corruption and manya-anyad, duratma-nam” (A villain’s 1930. Five years later – in 1935 – he wrote gangsterism among their own politicians thoughts, utterances and actions differ this semi-satirical novel, against the back- – tendencies that were to fertilise the from each other). drop of the rise of fascism in the interna- seeds of the McCarthy type fascist order But there is a method in this contra- tional arena, and the simultaneous con- that emerged in the US in the 1950s. diction in Modi’s strategy and tactics, by solidation of the mafi a-politician nexus These two literary works, in their which he had built up an image that has within the US. It is signifi cant that the respective ways, reawaken us to our elevated him from a villain (of the 2002 locale chosen by both Bertolt Brecht and responsibilities today in resisting the rise Gujarat genocide) to a hero (of economic Sinclair Lewis for the operations of their of a new ruling dispensation in India development) in the popular psyche. respective heroes/villains is the US. that threatens the secular fabric of our The mainstream media, bankrolled by Sinclair Lewis’s novel describes the rise Constitution and the pluralistic culture the corporate sector, are fostering his of Berzelius Windrip (popularly known of our society. We can go on quibbling electoral potentialities, picking upon only as “Buzz”), a fi ctional US senator who over the question whether “fascism” is those aspects of his party’s agenda that during his election speeches promises the appropriate term to describe it – an suit them (like promises of industrial drastic economic and social reforms, exercise which certain intellectuals are growth) while ignoring the other con- while promoting a return to chauvinist fond of indulging in. But the stark reality troversial aspects (like his promise to patriotism and traditional conservative is that the Bharatiya (BJP) build a temple on the disputed site of values (anticipatory echoes of Narendra leaders by their announcements, and Babri masjid, abrogate Article 370, and Modi?). Once he gets elected as the pres- their cadres by their acts, demonstrate impose a uniform civil code). The media ident, Windrip takes complete control of the same personality-based political hype around Modi is reminiscent of the administration, and imposes totali- strategy of combining populist rhetoric the role of the European press in the tarian rule with the help of a ruthless from public platforms at the macro level, 1930s, when it continued to depict paramilitary force. Although fi ctional, the and intimidation and terrorisation of the Hitler and Mussolini as amiable guys character of Windrip was based on a real citizens at the micro level that Hitler and who were expected to defeat the com- life politician – Huey Long, who was pre- Mussolini followed in the 1930s. munists, till the Axis powers reached paring to run for president at the time right on the doorstep of the Western when Lewis was writing the novel. Neo-Hindutva in the Era capitalist states. The title of the novel refl ected the of Neo-liberalism But while recalling the past and iden- mood of complacency of the American Narendra Modi, who has been chosen by tifying the similarities, we should take a liberal-minded voters at that time, who the Sangh parivar as the prime ministe- more astute view of the Hindu right in felt that such authoritarianism could rial candidate, has turned out to be the India today. It is not an exact replica of never be possible in a democracy like the best exponent of this strategy. Following the fascist forces of the past. As its most US. While it did not indeed happen then, in the footsteps of those two notorious powerful representative, Narendra Modi a little over a decade later, Lewis’s night- global personalities, he has managed to is refashioning the strategy and tactics mare turned out to be true, when under project himself as the man for all sea- of a populist chauvinist nationalism (the the rule of a president that they had sons and all classes. He uses the ha- ideology that was followed by the Axis elected – Harry Truman – Americans had rangue of Hindutva when wooing voters powers in their respective states in the a taste of authoritarianism. In 1947, in the cow-belt (where he berates against 1930-40 period – and by the Hindu right Truman introduced a number of meas- the enemies of go-mata), the rhetoric of in India) within the present order of ures that destroyed civil liberties, lead- economic development (a la the Gujarat globalisation. He has developed a concept ing up to the virtual control of the model) when addressing the corporate of neo-Hindutva to suit the demands of administration by the House Committee sector, the discourse of governance to the neo-liberal economy. While remaining on Un-American Activities which inaugu- assure the middle-class voters of effi - loyal to the Sangh parivar’s basic strategy rated the notorious McCarthy era of the ciency in administration, the militarist of establishing a Hindu theocratic state

Economic & Political Weekly EPW may 3, 2014 vol xlIX no 18 11 COMMENTARY of Ram rajya (a parallel to the contem- Constitution by which he will have to pilot L K Advani, whose ratha-yatra porary Islamic project of creating a shar- operate within a democratic structure. left a bloody trail of communal riots in ia-based political order), Modi is coming These commentators suffer from a self- its wake. Even after having witnessed up with tactics to accommodate foreign induced amnesia by conveniently forget- the murderous consequences of such multinationals and the indigenous cor- ting that Modi and his party had always public demonstration by the forces of porate sector. Under his leadership, the got away by violating the rules of the Hindutva, the government in Hindu right is thus attempting a mix Constitution – whether by demolishing New Delhi accepted at face value bet ween Reliance and Ram Janmabhoomi. the Babri masjid, or by presiding over their assurances of peaceful behaviour, It is adopting the neo-liberal order in the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat. and allowed their leaders and goons economy, while retaining its core ideo- The delusion (or opportunism?) of to assemble in Ayodhya, demolish the logy of Hindutva to establish its hege- these liberal sections reminds us of the Babri masjid, and reopen the wounds of mony in the sociocultural scene. By same American middle-class compla- Indian history’s most shameful chapter occupying a leading position in the insti- cency that Sinclair Lewis exposed in his of bloody Hindu-Muslim confl ict in tutions of power, it plans to reinforce its novel. In India today, given the tottering colours of mass violence not seen since values and norms all over society. and corruptible base of the institutions the days of the 1947 Partition. The left that prop up the democratic structure – and other democratic forces also failed ‘It Can Happen Here’ the legislature, the bureaucracy and to mount a counter-offensive against this To take the cue from Sinclair Lewis’s the judiciary – would it not be a cake march of the Sangh parivar’s juggernaut novel, if a Narendra Modi-led BJP comes walk for Narendra Modi, if he comes to that was taking place under the bene- to power, we can be sure that the follow- power, to bend them to serve both his volent auspices of the Congress regime’s ing things “can happen here” – (i) the megalomaniac ambitions and his party’s policy of soft-Hindutva. imposition of a Hindutva-based curricu- ideological goals? It is an uphill task now to make lum in educational institutions (signs of amends for the wrongs and failures of which were evident during the National Past Misdeeds and the past, and reverse the process of dis- Democratic Alliance (NDA) regime); Future Responsibilities tortion of the Indian polity by a class of (ii) clamping down on cultural works In fact, the rise of the BJP and the legiti- criminals who have risen to positions of that may be deemed offensive to the misation of its ideology of Hindutva atrocious eminence – whether from the Sangh parivar’s ideology of Hindutva and politics of violence in the 1980-90 BJP, the Congress, the , (like banning of books, vandalising of period, were made possible by a series of or the various regional formations. To art exhibitions, suppression of historical misdeeds of a professedly secular Congress suit their interests, and bereft of any research – policies and practices fol- government at the centre, beginning ideological commitment, they tend to lowed by the BJP in states which it rules, from the opening of the doors of the join any national formation – the United and by its foot soldiers in other states); Babri masjid to the Hindu religionists. It Progressive Alliance (UPA), the NDA – or (iii) infl iction of patriarchal diktats on then allowed the BJP-RSS-VHP axis to fl irt with other national alternatives like all expressions of female self-assertion, drum up Hindu sentiments over the the “”, or the newly fl oated and deprecation of women’s rights (re- Ram Janmabhoomi issue under their idea of a “”. The next Lok member Modi’s infamous statement that women in Gujarat were malnourished CENTRE FOR STUDIES IN SOCIAL SCIENCES, CALCUTTA (CSSSC) because they chose to be slim!); and (iv) most dangerously – the intimidation Doctoral Programme 2014 of the minority communities into total subjugation (the notorious example be- (Affi liated to Jadavpur University, Kolkata) ing the “fi nal solution” type experiment Advertisement No. CSSSC – 02/2014 carried out against Muslims in Narendra Modi-ruled Gujarat in 2002, which by Applications are invited from eligible candidates for admission to the threatening them has compelled their leaders to accept Modi as their protector). Doctoral Programme 2014 for which a maximum of 15 (fi fteen) candidates Despite this horrendous record of the will be admitted. For eligibility criterion and other details please visit: BJP, and Narendra Modi in particular, http://www.cssscal.org. Applicants may also contact the Offi ce of the certain sections of the Indian intellectual Programme Offi cer (M.Phil.-Ph.D.) at CSSSC at R-1, Baishnabghata milieu are veering towards Modi – some Patuli Township, Kolkata - 700 094. Application Forms available on the openly joining his party, and some website and from offi ce of the Centre. Last date of receiving application, through specious arguments in news- paper columns. One such argument is May 9, 2014. that once Modi comes to power, he will REGISTRAR be chastened by the rules of the Indian

12 may 3, 2014 vol xlIX no 18 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY Sabha thus may become a choice terrain Lok Sabha, will stick out as sore thumbs legislature with their ability to mobilise for intrigues among these abominable ef- from the midst of this cesspool. But they the masses in the streets, in order to re- fl uvia of self-serving, criminal and cor- can make a difference if they are sincere sist the domination and criminalisation rupt politicians which will fl ow from the in their commitment to the secular and of society by religio-political groups like ongoing polls. democratic values embedded in our the Sangh parivar, as well as the corrup- The handful of honest and courageous Constitution. They will have to combine tion of our political system by the corpo- individuals who may get elected to the their debating skills on the fl oors of the rate boss-politician-bureaucrat nexus.

the level of disaggregation for which Fallibility of Opinion Polls the data is required. Two, everyone in the population should have an equal in India chance of being selected in the sample. Prob ability sampling based on random method is the best way for ensuring Praveen Rai that everyone in the universe stands an equal chance of getting selected. There are many challenges in he very mention of the word Three, survey questions should be conducting election surveys “opinion poll1” immediately brings asked of the sampled respondents in a that measure voter preferences Tto the mind of people election standardised manner. (Standardisation surveys, exit polls2 and seat predictions ensures that questions are asked in the correctly and when the results of that appear in the mass media every time same manner to all the sampled respond- these surveys are used to make an election takes place in the country. ents as that will enable the respondents seat predictions the margin of Psephology, the study of elections, to r espond accurately.) Four, there error can be large. As the record began as an academic exercise at the should not be any predetermined arbi- Centre for the Study of Developing trariness in interviewing the sampled of pre-poll opinion surveys in Societies (CSDS), Delhi in the 1960s for respondents. the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha the purpose of studying the voting An accurate survey should follow elections shows, the opinion b ehaviour and attitudes of the voters. some basic norms: polls have many weaknesses Psephology is now equated with pre- • Every member of the targeted popu- poll surveys and exit polls which are lation should have an equal chance of while attempting to make done by almost all media houses to being selected for the survey. Prob ability forecasts in a complex situation. predict the winners of elections. It has sampling ensures everyone a fair and In such a setting, the polls can now been reduced to a media gimmick equal chance of getting selected which be used as covert instruments with allegations that it is used as a results in avoiding coverage error. communication tool by a conglomerate • The size of the sample to be selected by political parties to make seat of political parties, media and business should be adequate enough to achieve predictions and thereby infl uence houses with vested interests to infl u- the required level of precision. The the electorate. ence voters. Media houses and televi- a ttempt should be to minimise sam- sion anchors in India have become pling error. modern-day “Nostradamuses” using • The questions to be asked should opinion poll fi ndings to forecast elec- be simple and clearly worded so that tion results before the actual votes are the respondents can understand and cast, forecasts which have gone wrong answer them easily. The question to be on many occasions. asked should be worded in such a man- The accuracy of sample surveys de- ner that it stimulates the respondents to pends on the following factors. One, the answer it correctly. This reduces the sample should be large enough to yield measurement error though it cannot be the desired level of precision. The size of totally avoided. the required sample for any survey can • The sampled respondents who are This is a slightly modifi ed version of the article, be statistically determined. Those who contacted and interviewed during the “Status of Opinion Bills”, which was published do not have the experience can use survey should have similar traits in the Web Exclusives section of EPW last week. statistical tables that provide various as those who could not be interviewed. Praveen Rai ([email protected]) is a political sample sizes based on the population Everyone in the sample who responds analyst at the Centre for the Study of size of the universe. However in some to the survey should have correspond- Developing Societies, Delhi. cases, the sample size depends upon ing characteristics with those who

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