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Consumer Confidence US Economic Briefing: Consumer Confidence Yardeni Research, Inc. September 17, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1-2 Consumer Optimism 3 Consumer Confidence 4-6 Consumer Confidence & Unemployment 7-9 Consumer Confidence & Employment 10-12 Consumer Confidence By Region 13-15 Consumer Optimism Index 16 Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation 17 Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 18-21 September 17, 2021 / Consumer Confidence Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Confidence & Sentiment Figure 1. 200 200 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=100, sa) 180 180 160 160 Total Index (113.8) Current Conditions (147.3) 140 Expectations (91.4) 140 120 120 Aug 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 yardeni.com 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: The Conference Board. Figure 2. 130 130 CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX 120 (Q1-1966=100) 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 Aug 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 Consumer Sentiment Index Total (70.3) 40 Current Conditions (78.5) 40 Expectations (65.1) yardeni.com 30 30 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center Page 1 / September 17, 2021 / Consumer Confidence Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Confidence & Sentiment Figure 3. 180 180 CONSUMER SURVEYS 160 160 Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100, sa) 140 140 Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-1966=100, nsa) 120 120 Aug 100 100 80 80 Sep 60 60 40 40 20 20 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 250 250 CURRENT CONDITIONS Consumer Confidence Index 200 (1985=100, sa) 200 Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-1966=100, nsa) 150 Aug 150 100 100 Sep 50 50 0 0 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 160 160 150 EXPECTATIONS Consumer Confidence Index 150 (1985=100, sa) 140 140 Consumer Sentiment Index 130 (Q1-1966=100, nsa) 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 Sep 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 yardeni.com 20 20 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. Page 2 / September 17, 2021 / Consumer Confidence Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Optimism Figure 4. 140 140 130 CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 Aug 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 160 160 150 CURRENT CONDITIONS 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 Aug 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 130 130 EXPECTATIONS 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 Aug 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 yardeni.com 30 30 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa). Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. Page 3 / September 17, 2021 / Consumer Confidence Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Confidence Figure 5. 165 165 155 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 155 (1985=100. sa) 145 145 135 135 125 125 115 Aug 115 105 105 95 95 85 85 75 75 65 65 55 55 45 45 35 35 25 25 yardeni.com 15 15 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: The Conference Board. Figure 6. 200 200 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=100, sa) 180 180 Current Conditions Component (147.3) Expectations Component (91.4) 160 160 Aug 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 yardeni.com 0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: The Conference Board. Page 4 / September 17, 2021 / Consumer Confidence Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Confidence Figure 7. 200 200 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=100, sa) 180 180 160 160 Total Index (113.8) Current Conditions (147.3) 140 Expectations (91.4) 140 120 120 Aug 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 yardeni.com 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: The Conference Board. Figure 8. 160 160 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS (1985=100, sa) 140 140 Aug 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 Age Group 60 Under 35 (128.3) 35-54 (111.1) 40 55+ (109.2) 40 20 20 0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: The Conference Board. Page 5 / September 17, 2021 / Consumer Confidence Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Confidence Figure 9. 160 160 CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* 140 140 120 120 100 100 Aug 80 80 60 60 Total (92.1) Current (112.9) Expectations (78.3) 40 40 yardeni.com 20 20 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. Figure 10. 75 75 70 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABILITY 70 (percent saying so) 65 65 60 Jobs Plentiful* (54.6) 60 Jobs Hard 55 To Get* (11.8) Aug 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 Aug 10 10 5 5 yardeni.com 0 0 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 * Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board. Page 6 / September 17, 2021 / Consumer Confidence Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Confidence & Unemployment Figure 11. 75 200 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: CURRENT CONDITIONS & JOBS AVAILABILITY 175 50 Jobs Plentiful Minus Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) (42.8) Aug 150 25 125 0 100 75 -25 50 -50 25 Current Conditions Index (147.3) yardeni.com -75 0 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 * Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Source: The Conference Board. Figure 12. 16 75 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & JOBS AVAILABILITY 14 60 Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) 12 45 10 8 30 6 15 4 Unemployment Rate Aug (percent) yardeni.com 2 0 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 * Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / September 17, 2021 / Consumer Confidence Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Confidence & Unemployment Figure 13. 75 25 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & CONFIDENCE (sa) 60 20 Jobs Hard To Get (percent saying so) 45 15 30 10 U-6 15 Unemployment Rate* Aug (percent) yardeni.com 0 5 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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