7988_Trinity20pp:Newsletter 30/07/2010 10:07 Page 1 The Newsletter of Trinity College Oxford | Summer 2010 | Predicting the election | The other Boat Race | Open days | Old Members’ news | 7988_Trinity20pp:Newsletter 30/07/2010 10:07 Page 2 THE PRESIDENT t is too soon to predict what the shape of higher the fact that, although we are already in many respects Ieducation will look like in the medium term. But a private university which accepts government several events have come together this year which in funding, we may need to prepare ourselves to become retrospect may look like a watershed. The financial more private and ever less dependent on governments, crisis and the budgetary deficit had already ensured which in recent years have sought to tie our hands, that government funding for the sector would be impugn our academic integrity and co-opt us into drastically reduced. Now with the government poised becoming social engineers. The debate is engaged. as I write to impose further cuts in public expenditure One of the consequences of becoming ever more across the board, the likelihood is that both research independent of government will be a requirement to and teaching will be hit further. This would be a very raise considerably more sums from our alumni, short-sighted decision, as the necessary growth in the supporters and friends than ever we have in the past. economy will be led by innovation, not manufacturing So the current target for colleges and the University of and the smokestack industries. £1.25 billion may be replaced, once in reach, by With the election (a result accurately predicted on the something even more ambitious. night, to within a couple of seats, by Steve Fisher, our What applies to Oxford naturally applies to Trinity in Politics Fellow) has come a government divided on microcosm. And Trinity can bask in the reflected glory tuition fees. Lord Browne’s report is expected in the of the league tables in The Times, Guardian and autumn and is widely predicted to recommend lifting Independent and the Table of Tables showing Oxford the present cap on fees (a cap which means that the as the top British university—again. So no surprise college currently loses around £6,500 per home or EU there then. But it’s nice that others are regularly undergraduate per year). With the Lib Dems having a reminded of it. policy of abolition of all tuition fees, there is plenty of scope for a major intra-coalition row. What Oxford is As a college which is abundantly spacious in gardens determined to do if the cap is lifted is to use some of and grounds, we are critically short of accommodation, the additional income to fund bursaries for the needy, residential and otherwise. We can only provide rooms to ensure that Oxford admissions remain needs blind. for a handful of graduates on the main site, out of the hundred or so, and we struggle to provide any space for The collegiate University’s fundraising campaign, Visiting Fellows—and even our own Fellows. We have Oxford Thinking, which aims to raise a minimum of therefore concluded in principle to put up a new £1.25 billion, has already raised nearly £900 million building, the first substantial one since Staircase 18 in and may reach £1 billion by the end of 2010. A the early 1990s. This is a challenge, but we believe it is remarkable result so far in the teeth of a financial one we need to rise to, both to meet the reasonable whirlwind. But the remorseless decline in government needs of our students and those of the conference trade, funding for the University is leading us to face up to LORD QUINTON Thomas Photos It was with great sadness that we learned of the death, on 18 June, of Lord (Tony) Quinton, President from 1978 to 1986. A memorial service will be held at New College (where he was a Fellow before coming to Trinity) on 9 October at 2.00 pm. There is a book of condolence in College, which all are welcome to sign (alternatively messages to be included can be sent by email to the Alumni & Development Office). The book will be presented to Lord Quinton’s family at the time of the memorial service. COMMUNICATION FROM Front cover photo: Some of the current students TRINITY dressed up for the taking of the JCR photograph. A This Newsletter follows the last edition, sent out in variety of outfits were to be April and which we hope you received—but do let us seen, including costumes know if it didn’t reach you. Likewise, if you write to from the Lawns Play. us and do not receive an expected response, please do get in touch again. 2 | Trinity College Oxford | Summer 2010 | 7988_Trinity20pp:Newsletter 30/07/2010 10:07 Page 3 which is of crucial importance when faced with Since the start of the year, despite opposition from BA staffing and maintaining buildings which are devoid of strikes and volcanic ash, I’ve visited and very much our students for half the year. enjoyed meeting Old Members and friends in three continents, Asia, Australia and North America, and I’m conscious that much of the above reads like a plan further trips to Europe and nearer home this government economic report. There is of course much autumn.We now sit back and await the Norrington else happening in Trinity. Our musicians, choir, sports Table. Our students’ work ethic is not in doubt, nor the players and thespians have all had a very full and quality of the teaching they enjoy in college. successful year overall. Our women rowers, who are legion, have outshone our men this year. Our choir is The college staff also work incredibly hard, to support off to conquer Paris, having carried all before it in the Fellows and students and to provide a popular Rome last year, and the Lawns Play was a stunning venue for conferences and events, with wonderful production of Dangerous Liaisons. It read pretty well catering regularly described as the best in Oxford. We as one of my texts for French in the 1960s, but this are indebted to them. They play a critical part in the was brought to life in a gorgeous production enjoying college’s success which is reflected in the admissions the best weather of the summer. A sell-out. This statistics, where we receive more applicants for every Newsletter describes other news, particularly our place than the university average, by a factor of about innovation of a High Table dinner for those twenty percent. representing the University at sport. Cardinal Newman’s imminent beatification has prompted much press and media interest in his alma mater, and we seem to be one of the colleges of choice for Lewis. TRINITY BLUES In Trinity term Trinity’s Blues were invited by the President to dine on High Table, following a reception in the President’s garden. Back row: Nikolas Weissmueller, shotokan karate; Jarrad Aguirre, ice hockey; Fred Burgess, tennis; Horatio Cary, real tennis and racquets; Eloise Waldon-Day, netball; Katherine Rollins, swimming; Rachel Hargrave, hockey; Leah Templeman, lacrosse. Front row: Susan Jishan Chai, table tennis; Charlotte Mulliner, mixed lacrosse; Katherine Walters, water polo; Ellen Kempston (colours), rowing. TRINITY CHAIRS Trinity. They have now safely crossed the Atlantic t is not unusual for objects with a and when Sam was back Trinity connection or mark to find their I in Oxford for a degree way back here. ceremony in May, the However, few items can have travelled President was able to quite as far as a recently-arrived pair of show him the chairs, eye-catching, oak chairs, displaying the which now grace the Trinity arms on the crest rail, supported Senor Common Room. by two dragons. When it was discovered No details are known of that these were to be sold at auction in their provenance, so New Orleans, a message was sent to Old whether they have Members in North America, in case returned or come to someone with a Trinity connection might Trinity for the first time is be keen to give them a home. Sam Tabar unknown, but either way (1997) not only decided to put in a bid, they are a welcome which was successful, but to the great addition to the college’s delight of College did so with the collection and look very intention of making a gift of them to much at home. Trinity College Oxford | Summer 2010 | 3 7988_Trinity20pp:Newsletter 30/07/2010 10:07 Page 4 GETTING IT RIGHT ON THE NIGHT Dr Steve Fisher, Fellow and Tutor in Politics, played a key role in the calculations behind the exit poll for May’s general election, as one of a small team of academic researchers undertaking the analysis and predictions. Here he describes how the extremely accurate prediction came about, and explains his involvement in its preparation. hen the polls closed for the UK’s general Welection at ten o’clock on 6 May, the BBC, ITN and Sky News broadcast a prediction of the total number of seats for each of the three major parties. This was the product of a statistical model that my colleagues and I chose after a day in quarantine analyzing successive updates of exit poll data. Our prediction was for the Conservatives to win 307 seats, Labour 255 and the Liberal Democrats fifty-nine. It was largely disbelieved because the polls suggested the Liberals would win something closer to eighty seats.