Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects
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GUIDELINES FOR THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PROJECTS Economics and Development Resource Center February 1997 FOREWORD A Bank Task Force on Project Quality established in 1993 considered several means of enhancing the effectiveness of Bank operations, in conjunction with borrowing member countries. A number of steps were identified to improve the quality of projects at the preparation stage as well as at the implementation stage. To this end, an Interdepartmental Working Group was established to reconsider the nature and role of the economic analysis of projects, and in particular to review the existing guidelines for project economic analysis, as a means of enhancing project quality at entry. This review has led to these new Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects. Bank staff and consultants are required to undertake economic analysis of Bank loan projects in a relatively uniform way. Guidelines for this purpose were issued last in 1987. Several factors have come together to make it necessary to produce this new general guidelines. First, the Asian Development Bank has reconsidered its own priorities. A new set of objectives for classifying Bank projects has been established, resulting in a greater emphasis on projects producing nontraded outputs that meet peoples needs directly. Second, the source of finance for many types of project is changing with a greater role for the private sector. Greater emphasis therefore needs to be placed on the appropriate roles of the public and private sectors in the provision of goods and services before specific project proposals are brought forward for analysis. Third, Bank staff and consultants now have to deal with a broader range of issues than before. This can be summarized under the title of sustainability, the realization that the economic benefits of projects will not fully materialize unless attention is also paid to cost recovery and financial sustainability, to environmental effects and to the distributional effects of projects. Finally, the subject matter of project economic analysis has itself undergone some change. Greater attention is now paid to the broader aspects of economic analysis, the way project alternatives are identified and assessed, the treatment of uncertainty, and the policy context in which projects are undertaken. These new guidelines have been prepared by the Project Economic Evaluation Division of the Economics and Development Resource Center, in consultation with the Interdepartmental Working Group and after comments from staff in the Banks Projects Departments. They outline the principles upon which the economic analysis of projects should be based. The appendices provide illustrations of their application. The guidelines provide the basis for quantifying and valuing project costs and benefits where all relevant data are available. However, it may not always be possible to quantify and value all the costs and benefits of a particular project. The guidelines provide for the ideal situation to which Bank practice should aspire. Whilst continuing to focus on economic viability, or on economic effectiveness of alternatives where benefits cannot be valued, as the key criterion for assessing Bank loans, these guidelines now provide a more integrated approach to the economic analysis of projects. Not every form of analysis contained in these guidelines will be equally applicable to every project. Projects Departments will need to take a decision early in project processing about the forms of economic analysis appropriate to a particular project. These guidelines are issued to assist Bank staff and consultants to answer the basic economic questions that need to be asked about any of its project loans. It is hoped that through their application the underlying purpose of enhancing project quality will be better served. VISHVANATH V. DESAI Director and Chief Economist Economics and Development Resource Center January 1997 ABBREVIATIONS AIEC - average incremental economic cost AIFC - average incremental financial cost BCR - benefit-cost ratio BOOT - build-own-operate-transfer BPEV - border price equivalent value CEA - cost effectiveness analysis CF - conversion factor CIF - cost insurance freight CS - consumer surplus DMC - developing member county DMP - domestic market price DP - demand price DRC - domestic resource cost EAC - effective assistance coefficient EAR - effective assistance ratio EC - economic cost EDR - equalizing discount rate EIA - environmental impact assessment EIRR - economic internal rate of return ENPV - economic net present value EOCK - economic opportunity cost of capital EP - economic price EQDR - equalizing discount rate FIRR - financial internal rate of return FNPV - financial net present value FOB - free on board FP - financial price GEB - gross economic benefit HDTP - handling, distribution, transport, processing HLD - healthy life day IRR - internal rate of return LIBOR - London interbank offer rate NEB - net economic benefit NFB - net financial benefit NGO - nongovernmental organization NOER - nominal official exchange rate NPV - net present value O&M - operation & maintenance OCR - ordinary capital resources OER - official exchange rate PAR - project assistance ratio PAC - project assistance coefficient PIR - poverty impact ratio PV - present value PVC - present value of cost ROER - real official exchange rate SCF - standard or average conversion factor SER - shadow exchange rate SERF - shadow exchange rate factor SI - sensitivity indicator SP - supply price SV - switching value SWR - shadow wage rate SWRF - shadow wage rate factor UFW - unaccounted for water WMP - world market price WTA - willingness to accept WTP - willingness to pay ACKNOWLEDGMENTS These guidelines were produced as a joint effort by several persons. The overall structure and content of the guidelines were subject to external review at different stages by William Ward and J. Price Gittinger. However, the text of the guidelines was written by members of staff of the Project Economic Evaluation Division of the Banks Economic and Development Resource Center. Stephen Curry and George Whitlam drafted the main text and the majority of the appendixes, while selected appendixes were provided by Anneli Lagman, Bo Lin, Rita Nangia, and Arlene Tadle. The document benefited several times from the comments of Jungsoo Lee, Assistant Chief Economist, Project Economic Evaluation Division, and its preparation was undertaken with the encouragement of Vishvanath Desai, Director and Chief Economist. Drafts of the guidelines were subject to several internal reviews, first by an interdepartmental working group chaired by Jungsoo Lee, and subsequently by the Directors and staff of operational departments. Reviews of earlier drafts were provided by Piyasena Abeygunawardena, Ifzal Ali, Nihal Amerasinghe, Peter Darjes, David Edwards, Preminda Fernando, Morimitsu Inaba, Thomas Jones III, Bindu Lohani, Bruce Murray, Lester Neumann, Gene Owens, Frank Polman, Narhari Rao, William Staub, Phiphit Suphaphiphat, Etienne Van De Walle, Jean-Pierre Verbiest, and Chi-Nang Wong of the interdepartmental working group. Subsequent comments from operational departments were received particularly from Elisabetta Capannelli, Bruce Carrad, Brian Fawcett, Kazi Jalal, Toshio Kondo, Loh Ai Tee, Takashi Matsuo, Mark Mitchell, Patricia Moser, Eustace Nonis, and Frederick Roche. The preparation of the manuscript was undertaken through many drafts and revisions by Digna Real. It was edited by Judith Banning and processed through the several stages of production by Virginita Capulong, Marcelia Garcia and Regina Sibal. Assistance with printing was provided by Victor Angeles and Raveendranath Rajan. This version of the guidelines, produced particularly for distribution outside the Bank, is intended as a means of creating a better understanding of the purposes and content of the economic analysis of projects by several groups of users. It is hoped that a consistent application of principles will develop between Government officials from borrowing countries, consultants employed by the Bank in project preparation, and Bank staff. Prior acknowledgment, therefore, is given to the users of these guidelines who have the joint task of improving the quality of Bank-assisted projects. CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. BACKGROUND 1 III. THE ECONOMIC RATIONALE OF A PROJECT 2 IV. MACROECONOMIC AND SECTORAL CONTEXT 4 V. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 5 A. Scope of Economic Analysis 5 B. The Project Framework 7 C. Financial and Economic Analysis 8 VI. IDENTIFICATION AND QUANTIFICATION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS 10 A. General 10 B. Identification and Quantification of Benefits 11 C. Identification and Quantification of Costs 12 VII. VALUATION OF ECONOMIC COSTS AND BENEFITS 14 A. General Considerations 14 B. Role of World Prices 16 C. Economic Prices of Traded Goods and Services 18 D. Economic Prices of Nontraded Goods and Services 19 E. The Economic Price of Labor 21 F. The Economic Price of Land 23 G. Bringing Economic Prices to a Common Base 25 H. Conversion Factors 27 I. Economic Viability: A Procedure 29 VIII. LARGE PROJECTS, LINKAGES, AND NATIONAL AFFORDABILITY 30 IX. LEAST-COST AND COST-EFFECTIVE ANALYSIS 31 Page X. INVESTMENT CRITERIA: ECONOMIC VIABILITY 34 A. Project Decisions 34 B. Choosing Between Alternative When Benefits are Not Valued 34 C. Choosing Between Alternatives When Benefits are Valued 35 D. Testing the Economic Viability of the Best Alternative 36 E. The Chosen Discount Rate 37 F. Project Investments