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Equity Research Equity Research INDIA February 5, 2021 BSE Sensex: 50614 UTI Asset Management Company BUY ICICI Securities Limited is the author and Valuations trailing business recovery distributor of this report Rs563 UTI Asset Management Company’s (UTI AMC) predecessor Unit Trust of India (UTI) is a pioneer and one of the oldest brands in India’s mutual fund industry Initiating coverage with a heritage of >55 years. Currently, with a 5.6% share of total AUM in India in 9MFY21, it ranks eighth in the mutual fund industry. UTI AMC has lost equity AUM Financial Services market share from 8.7% in FY15 to 4.6% in 9MFY21 and its debt AUM market share from 7.7% to 4% in the same timeframe. This has resulted in its AAUM Target price Rs700 remaining stagnant at ~Rs1.5-1.6trn as at Dec’20, but overall revenue yield declining from 57bps in FY18 to 47bps in FY20. However, UTI AMC has chartered a business recovery on the basis of cost control and increased distribution tieups Shareholding pattern (which includes CitiBank, State Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank etc). We believe Sep Dec that this should help UTI to charter 7.4% EBITDA CAGR over FY20-23E with 13% '20 '20 Promoters 0.0 0.0 RoE. Institutional Recommend BUY with a target price of Rs700 based on 25x core FY23E EPS investors 68.2 89.1 MFs and others 7.9 13.7 of Rs18 and add cash and investments of Rs255/share. UTI valuation discount Banks / FIs 35.2 35.3 to peers (currently trading at 26x FY20 EPS compared to 51/49 for HDFC Insurance 10.0 10.0 AMC/Nippon AMC) is driven by history of market share loss and higher cost FIIs 15.1 30.1 Others 31.8 10.9 structure. While market share loss has been a common phenomenon for most Source: BSE AMCs, cost structure of UTI can improve with organic initiatives. Cost-control initiatives can help improve profitability: Employee costs (20bps of AAUM) and other expenses (13bps of AAUM) remain high vis-à-vis peers like HDFC Price chart AMC and Nippon AMC. Management wants to control employee costs (Rs3.5bn 590 level per annum) aided by natural retirement of high-salaried personnel and also 570 retain other expenses at Rs2bn-2.25bn level over the next five years. Even an 550 industry median cost structure can lead to an incremental 5bps improvement to the 530 operating profit levels (Rs 2.6bn FY22E operating profit on an AUM base of (Rs) 510 Rs2.15trn). 490 Leading presence in B30 markets, distribution initiatives can help improve 470 market share: With approximately 27% of its overall AUM in B30 geographies, UTI 450 has the highest concentration in that segment among the top-10 AMCs. In addition, UTI AMC is actively seeking strategic partnerships, including with banks, to help 4-Jan 1-Feb 9-Nov 7-Dec 12-Oct 26-Oct 18-Jan 23-Nov 21-Dec gain a better foothold in T30 markets as well as cement its position in B30 – thus helping it recoup the market share ceded over the past five years. Expect earnings CAGR of 3-21% for over the next 10 years assuming +/- 300bps movement in equity market share. Assuming that: 1) Indian nominal GDP grows at 9% CAGR over the next 10 years, 2) aggregate net inflow p.a. is 1 % of aggregate GDP (vs 0.8% over 2010-20), and 3) average annual performance growth is 7.8% (vs 6% over 2010-20) - Indian AUM is likely to grow to Rs45trn by 2025 and Rs100trn by 2030. Within a possible +/-300bps change in equity market share, UTI AMC's Revenue / operating profit / PAT CAGR is likely to be 2-14% / 1- 24% / 3-21% over the next 10 years after adjusting for decline in yields from growth in AUM and periodic stepdown in allowable MF TER. Ma rket Cap Rs71.4bn/US$979mn Year to Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Bloomberg UTIAM IN Revenue (Rs mn) 7,879 7,739 8,036 8,618 Shares Outstanding (mn) 126.8 EBITDA(Rs mn) 2,562 2,206 2,645 3,177 52-week Range (Rs) 581/476 Net Income (Rs mn) 2,715 5,137 3,599 4,031 Free Float (%) 100.0 Core PAT 1,892 1,519 1,854 2,266 Research Analysts: FII (%) 30.1 EPS (Rs) 21.4 40.5 28.4 31.8 Daily Volume (US$'000) NA P/E (x) 26.3 13.9 19.8 17.7 Ansuman Deb Absolute Return 3m (%) 16.8 Core EPS (Rs) 14.9 12.0 14.6 17.9 [email protected] +91 22 6637 7312 Absolute Return 12m (%) NA Core PE (Rs) 37.7 47.0 38.5 31.5 Ravin Kurwa Sensex Return 3m (%) 24.7 Dividend Yield 1.2% 3.1% 2.0% 2.7% [email protected] Sensex Return 12m (%) +91 22 2277 7653 25.6 RoE (%) 10.1 17.6 11.3 11.9 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report UTI Asset Management Company, February 5, 2021 ICICI Securities TABLE OF CONTENT AUM deep dive analysis .................................................................................................. 3 Performance has been the key driver for UTI’s AUM growth ......................................... 3 Equity AUM market share is stable now at ~5% ............................................................. 4 Overall / Equity AAUM grew at 11% / 9% CAGRs in past 10 years ............................... 5 Key funds managed and fund manager details .............................................................. 7 SIP flows have been steady with market share of 10% .................................................. 8 High B30 AUM mix of 24%.............................................................................................. 9 Long-term operating profit CAGR can be 3-21% on the basis of +/- 300bps equity AUM market share ......................................................................................................... 10 Q3FY21 result review: Strong show ............................................................................ 12 Company background ................................................................................................... 15 UTI Venture Funds ........................................................................................................ 15 UTI International ............................................................................................................ 16 UTI Retirement solutions (UTI RSL) ............................................................................. 16 UTI Capital Private Ltd .................................................................................................. 17 India Infrastructure development fund .......................................................................... 17 Board of Directors ......................................................................................................... 18 Committee composition ................................................................................................. 19 ESOP exercise price higher than current market capitalisation ................................... 19 Dividend policy of at least 50% payout ......................................................................... 20 Cost comparison with peers ......................................................................................... 21 UTI’s cost structure has room for improvement ............................................................ 21 Improvement in cost structure to industry median levels can lead to incremental operating profit of 5bps of AUM .................................................................................... 24 UTI employee costs has headroom to improve from 20bps in FY20 to 11bps in FY2524 Detailed revenue breakup: 79% comes from India MF and 5% from UTI International ......................................................................................................................................... 25 Distribution is a focus area ........................................................................................... 26 Fund performance tracker ............................................................................................ 27 Financial summary ........................................................................................................ 31 Index of Tables and Charts ........................................................................................... 33 Note: Sensex and Current Market Price are as on February 4, 2021. 2 UTI Asset Management Company, February 5, 2021 ICICI Securities AUM deep dive analysis Performance has been the key driver for UTI’s AUM growth Chart 1: History of AUM creation UTI AMC 60% 17% 3% 27% 16% 30% 18% 10% 8% 40% 8% 3% 29% 20% 19% 12% 20% 22% 9% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% -1% -2% -4% -2% -20% -18% -12% -7% -40% -60% -18% -12% -4% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Flows Performance Source SEBi Handbook: I-Sec research Data for FY20 is data upto Dec’19 Table 1: UTI assets under management as on Dec’20 UTI AMC Total asset under management (Rs bn) UTI MF 1,654 PMS 7,506 UTI capital 16 UTI Retirement solution 1,588 UTI International 217 Total 10,981 Source: Company presentation, I-Sec Research 3 UTI Asset Management Company, February 5, 2021 ICICI Securities Equity AUM market share is stable now at ~5% Chart 2: UTI AUM’s total market share has seen a Chart 3: …while its equity AUM market share has declining trend… shown signs of stabilising Overall market share Equity market share 8.5% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 7.5% 6.0% 4.7% 7.0% 5.0% 6.5% 4.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.5% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.5% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Chart 4: Debt AUM has seen sharp loss in market Chart 5: … while liquid AUM has seen modest share… decline Debt market share Liquid market
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