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TRANSITION to Rfrs REVIEW: Full Year 2020 and the Fourth Quarter of 2020

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TRANSITION to Rfrs REVIEW: Full Year 2020 and the Fourth Quarter of 2020 January 2021 TRANSITION TO RFRs REVIEW: Full Year 2020 and the Fourth Quarter of 2020 The Transition to Risk-free Rates (RFRs) Review analyzes the trading volumes of over-the-counter (OTC) and exchange-traded interest rate derivatives (IRD) that reference selected alternative RFRs, including the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA), the Swiss Average Rate Overnight (SARON), the Tokyo Overnight Average Rate (TONA), the Euro Short-Term Rate (€STR) and the Australian Overnight Index Average (AONIA). Global data is collected from all major central counterparties (CCPs) that clear OTC and exchange- traded derivatives (ETD) in the six currencies, including the Australian Securities Exchange, CME Group, Eurex, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Japan Securities Clearing Corporation, LCH and the Tokyo Financial Exchange. Only cleared transactions are captured in this data. US data is collected from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) swap data repository (SDR). It therefore only covers trades that are required to be disclosed under US regulations and includes cleared and non-cleared OTC IRD transactions. 1 TRANSITION TO RFRs REVIEW: Full Year 2020 and the Fourth Quarter of 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE FULL YEAR 2020 AND THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2020 Global Trading Activity1 In the full year 2020: The ISDA-Clarus RFR Adoption Indicator increased to 7.6% in the full year 2020 compared to 4.6% in the prior year2. The indicator tracks how much global trading activity (as measured by DV01) is conducted in cleared OTC and exchange-traded IRD that reference the identified RFRs in six major currencies3. RFR-linked IRD traded notional accounted for 8.8% of total IRD traded notional compared to 5.4% in 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020: The ISDA-Clarus RFR Adoption Indicator reached 9.9% compared to 8.5% in the prior quarter. RFR-linked IRD traded notional accounted for 12.3% of total IRD traded notional versus 10.6% in the third quarter of 2020. Trading Activity in the US4 In the full year 2020: In the US, traded notional of OTC IRD referencing alternative RFRs increased by 114.1% to $18.7 trillion compared to $8.7 trillion in 20195. RFR transactions accounted for 8.1% of total IRD traded notional compared to 3.4% in the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by higher trading activity in SONIA-linked derivatives. 1 The global data is collected from all major central counterparties (CCPs) that clear over-the-counter (OTC) and exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) in the six currencies, including the Australian Securities Exchange, CME Group, Eurex, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Japan Securities Clearing Corporation, LCH and the Tokyo Financial Exchange. Only cleared transactions are captured in this data 2 ISDA-Clarus RFR Adoption Indicator White Paper: https://www.isda.org/a/SImTE/ISDA-Clarus-RFR-Adoption-Indicator-Whitepaper.pdf 3 The RFR Adoption Indicator was 10.0% in December 2020. ISDA-Clarus RFR Adoption Indicator, December 2020: https://www.isda.org/a/luBTE/ISDA- Clarus-RFR-Adoption-Indicator-December-2020.pdf 4 The US data is collected from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) swap data repository (SDR). It therefore only covers trades that are required to be disclosed under US regulations and includes cleared and non-cleared OTC IRD transactions 5 This data covers only transactions that are required to be disclosed under US regulations 2 TRANSITION TO RFRs REVIEW: Full Year 2020 and the Fourth Quarter of 2020 • IRD traded notional referencing SOFR increased to $1.3 trillion from $379.9 billion in the prior year. The proportion of IRD traded notional linked to SOFR remained small, accounting for only 0.6% of total IRD traded notional and 7.1% of IRD traded notional referencing RFRs. • IRD traded notional referencing SONIA increased to $17.0 trillion in 2020 compared to $8.1 trillion in 2019. SONIA transactions accounted for 7.4% of total IRD traded notional and represented 90.9% of IRD traded notional referencing RFRs6. • Traded notional of IRD referencing LIBOR denominated in US dollars, sterling, Swiss franc, yen and euro, as well as EURIBOR and TIBOR, decreased to $140.0 trillion compared to $158.6 trillion in 2019. These interbank offered rates (IBORs) represented 60.7% of total IRD traded notional compared to 61.8% in 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020: • In the US, traded notional of OTC IRD referencing alternative RFRs totaled $3.9 trillion in fourth quarter of 2020, equating to 9.5% of total IRD traded notional. The number of IRD trades referencing alternative RFRs was 12,302, representing 3.6% of total IRD trade count. 6 This is expected as SONIA has been and is currently used as the reference rate for sterling overnight index swaps (OIS), while the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is still widely used as the reference rate for US dollar OIS 3 TRANSITION TO RFRs REVIEW: Full Year 2020 and the Fourth Quarter of 2020 GLOBAL RFR-LINKED OTC AND EXCHANGE-TRADED IRD The ISDA-Clarus RFR Adoption Indicator increased to 7.6% in the full year 2020 compared to 4.6% in the prior year7. RFR-linked IRD DV01 increased to $27.2 billion in 2020 compared to $18.7 billion in 2019. Total IRD DV01 decreased to $356.5 billion from $404.9 billion over the same period. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the ISDA-Clarus RFR Adoption Indicator reached 9.9% versus 8.5% in the third quarter. RFR-linked IRD DV01 increased to $7.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to $5.9 billion in the prior quarter. Total IRD DV01 increased to $75.9 billion from $70.0 billion over the same period8 (see Chart 1). Chart 1: RFR Adoption Indicator: % of DV01 Transacted as RFR-linked IRD Products Source: ISDA-Clarus RFR Adoption Indicator RFR-linked IRD traded notional increased to 8.8% of total IRD traded notional in 2020 versus 5.4% in 2019. RFR-linked IRD traded notional, including OTC and ETD, totaled $149.5 trillion in 2020 compared to $118.1 trillion in 2019. Total IRD traded notional declined to $1,690.4 trillion from $2,189.3 trillion over the same period. 7 ISDA-Clarus RFR Adoption Indicator tracks how much global trading activity (as measured by DV01) is conducted in cleared OTC and exchange-traded derivatives that reference the identified RFRs in six major currencies, including the Australian dollar, euro, sterling, swiss franc, US dollar and yen 8 To access interactive charts and download monthly data, go to https://rfr.clarusft.com 4 TRANSITION TO RFRs REVIEW: Full Year 2020 and the Fourth Quarter of 2020 In the fourth quarter of 2020, RFR-linked IRD traded notional accounted for 12.3% of total IRD traded notional compared to 10.6% in the third quarter. RFR-linked IRD traded notional increased to $37.8 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2020 from $31.7 trillion in the prior quarter, while total IRD traded notional increased to $308.4 trillion from $299.3 trillion over the same period (see Chart 2). Chart 2: Global IRD Traded Notional (including OTC and ETD) Source: ISDA-Clarus RFR Adoption Indicator 5 TRANSITION TO RFRs REVIEW: Full Year 2020 and the Fourth Quarter of 2020 RFR-LINKED OTC IRD IN THE US In the US, OTC IRD traded notional referencing alternative RFRs increased by 114.1% to $18.7 trillion in 2020 compared to $8.7 trillion in 20199. The increase was primarily driven by higher trading activity in SONIA-linked derivatives. RFR transactions accounted for 8.1% of total OTC IRD traded notional in 2020 versus 3.4% in the prior year. The number of trades referencing RFRs increased by 148.2% to 36,098 in 2020. RFR-linked trades accounted for 2.3% of total OTC IRD trade count in 2020 compared to 1.0% in 2019. In the full year 2020: • SOFR-linked OTC IRD traded notional increased by 248.3% compared with 2019 and totaled $1.3 trillion, including $586.1 billion of basis swaps. Trade count increased by 608.6% over the same period and totaled 9,049, including 3,519 basis swaps10. • SONIA-linked IRD traded notional increased by 110.7% to $17.0 trillion, including $252.0 billion of basis swaps. Trade count increased by 103.5% to 25,816, including 1,410 basis swaps. • SARON-linked IRD traded notional increased by 17.7% to $32.6 billion and trade count grew by 14.9% to 77. • TONA-linked IRD traded notional decreased by 0.2% versus 2019 and totaled $249.0 billion, including $3.1 billion of basis swaps. Trade count increased by 25.2% to 630, including seven basis swaps. • €STR-linked IRD traded notional and trade count increased to $85.3 billion and 526, respectively11. 9 This data covers only transactions that are required to be disclosed under US regulations 10 The RFR basis swap data covers all basis swaps with the relevant alternative RFR as one of the underlying assets. This includes alternative RFR/ interbank offered rate (IBOR) basis swaps. The IBOR data does not cover any basis swaps. The ‘Other’ category covers non-alternative RFR/IBOR basis swaps and IRD with reference rates that are not otherwise covered. Basis swaps with the relevant alternative RFR as one of the underlying assets are tracked separately because market participants have specifically identified a robust basis swaps market as key to understanding the economic differences between the alternative RFRs and other rates, including IBORs. A robust and liquid basis swaps market for the alternative RFRs will also support hedging during the transition from IBORs to alternative RFRs 11 €STR swaps started trading in the fourth quarter of 2019 6 TRANSITION TO RFRs REVIEW: Full Year 2020 and the Fourth Quarter of 2020 In the fourth quarter of 2020: OTC IRD traded notional referencing alternative RFRs totaled $3.9 trillion in fourth quarter of 2020, which accounted for 9.5% of total IRD traded notional.
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