Economic and Demographic Trends in Saskatchewan Cities
Economic and Demographic Trends in Saskatchewan Cities
Presentation to the: Association of Professional Community Planners of Saskatchewan
Doug Elliott Tel: 306-522-5515 Sask Trends Monitor Fax: 306-522-5838 444 19th Avenue Email: [email protected] Regina, Saskatchewan Internet: www.sasktrends.ca S4N 1H1
September 16, 2004 1 Outline
General Overview of Provincial Demographics
Saskatchewan Cities and urban areas
Age and Demographic Characteristics of Urban residents
Socioeconomic Characteristics of Urban residents
September 16, 2004 2 Provincial Population
Saskatchewan Population
1,050 thousands Saskatchewan’s 1,025 population is effectively one 1,000 million people, has been for about 975 thirty years, and is expected to hover 950 near that mark for
925 the foreseeable future. 900 There are lots of 875 changes happening actual projected within this “stable” 850 group of one million 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 people. as of July:
September 16, 2004 3 Inter-Provincial Migration
Inter-Provincial Migration to/from Saskatchewan 45 thousands Declining fertility and longer 40 life expectancy affect the 35 out-migration overall population size but the 30 main determinant is inter- 25 provincial migration. 20 15 in-migration Inter-provincial migration 10 contributed to population 5 growth in only a few of the 0 past 30 years. (5) (10) A disproportionate number of (15) net migration people leaving the province (20) are young and well educated. (25) Last year, 40% of out- 1971- 1975- 1979- 1983- 1987- 1991- 1995- 1999- migrants were 20 to 34 years 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 of age; 55% were post- secondary graduates. July to June:
September 16, 2004 4 Changing Age Structures
Saskatchewan Population in July 2003
18,000 The older end of the “baby boom” generation (in their 16,000 mid fifties) is already 14,000 contemplating retirement.
12,000 56 years Because of out-migration, we have a smaller “bust” 10,000 generation coming behind echo boom to replace retiring 8,000 bust boomers. 6,000 The “echo” in 4,000 Saskatchewan is relatively primary labour market age large because of the 2,000 Aboriginal population.
0 0 4 8 1216202428323640444852566064687276 individual years of age
September 16, 2004 5 Historical Pattern of Urbanization
Urbanization in Saskatchewan
900 thousands This is the only long- 800 term measure we have for urbanization 700 in Saskatchewan; a non-farm population 600 “farm/non-farm” breakdown. 500
400 In 1951, there were as many people 300 living on the farm as farm population off the farm. By 200 2001, the ratio of non-farm to farm 100 population was 7:1. 0 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
September 16, 2004 6 Saskatchewan Urban Centres
September 16, 2004 7 Saskatchewan Urban Area Populations
Saskatoon 196,811
Regina 178,225
Prince Albert 34,291
Moose Jaw 32,131
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Population-wise, these are the four largest centres in Saskatchewan. The figures are from the census and are as of May 2001.
September 16, 2004 8 Saskatchewan Urban Area Populations
Yorkton 15,107 Swift Current 14,821 North Battleford 13,692 Estevan 10,242 Weyburn 9,534 Lloydminster (Sask) 7,840 Melfort 5,559 Humboldt 5,161 Meadow Lake 4,582 Kindersley 4,548 Melville 4,453 Martensville 4,365 Nipawin 4,275 Battleford 3,820 Warman 3,481 Tisdale 3,063 La Ronge 2,727 Assiniboia 2,483
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000
These are the next eighteen largest centres in Saskatchewan according to their 2001 population.
September 16, 2004 9 Population Changes, 1996 to 2001
Martensville
Warman
Tisdale
Lloydminster (Sask)
Humboldt
Saskatoon Population change from 1996 to 2001
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Only 6 of the 22 largest communities grew from 1996 to 2001.
September 16, 2004 10 Population Changes, 1996 to 2001
Yorkton Swift Current Population change from 1996 to 2001 Nipawin Regina Prince Albert Weyburn Moose Jaw North Battleford Kindersley Battleford Melfort Melville Estevan Meadow Lake Assiniboia La Ronge
-9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0%
September 16, 2004 11 Changes in the Number of “Households”
Change in the Number of Households
Lloydminster (SK) Many urban centres Humboldt with a population Saskatoon decline still have an Swift Current increase in the Yorkton number of Regina households. Weyburn Kindersley This is because Prince Albert households are North Battleford getting smaller in Moose Jaw the sense of the Meadow Lake average number of Melville people living in Estevan them. Change from 1996 to 2001 Melfort
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
September 16, 2004 12 City vs. “Census Metropolitan Areas”
September 16, 2004 13 Census Metropolitan Areas/Agglomeration Areas
Statistics Canada uses commuting patterns as a method of determining “census metropolitan areas” (CMAs) for large cities and “census agglomerations” (CAs) for smaller cities.
These are the communities considered “part of” the cities for smaller urban areas in Saskatchewan, i.e. CAs:
Yorkton - Orkney RM#244, Ebenezer, Springside, Willowbrook
Estevan - Estevan RM#5, Bienfait
Moose Jaw - Moose Jaw RM#161
Swift Current - Swift Current RM#137
North Battleford - Town of Battleford
Prince Albert - Prince Albert RM#461, Buckland RM#491, Wahpaton Reserve
September 16, 2004 14 Regina Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)
Regina Beach
Lumsden
Balgonie Pilot Butte
Pense
September 16, 2004 15 Saskatoon Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)
Osler Langham Dalmeny
Martensville
Asquith
Clavet Colonsay
Delisle Allan
Dundurn
September 16, 2004 16 Population including CMA/CAs
Population of Major Urban Centres, 2001 (including surrounding areas)
Rest of Sask 413,713
Prince Albert 41,460
Moose Jaw 33,519
Other urban Yorkton 146,495 17,554 North Battleford 17,512 Swift Current Regina 16,527 192,800 Estevan 12,083 Saskatoon Lloydminster (Sask 225,927 part) 7,840
September 16, 2004 17 Population Growth for CMAs
Population Change, 1996 to 2001
Estevan One of the reasons that population has not Moose Jaw grown, even in some of the larger centres, is North Battleford that people are often choosing to live outside Yorkton the city boundaries.
Prince Albert This is particularly true in Saskatoon, Swift Regina Current, Regina, and Prince Albert. The Swift Current opposite is true in Including CMA Yorkton and Moose Saskatoon City Proper Jaw.
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%
September 16, 2004 18 Age Characteristics
…unless otherwise indicated, all of the statistics in the rest of this presentation refer to the 8 largest CMAs or CAs in the province, i.e. Regina, Saskatoon, Prince Albert, Moose Jaw, Yorkton, Swift Current, North Battleford, and Estevan
September 16, 2004 19 Age Distributions in 2001
Age Distribution in 2001
9% percent of population The relative lack of 8% young people in Saskatchewan is 7% more pronounced in rural areas. In urban 6% areas, 15% of the population is 20 to 34 5% Rural compared with 21% 4% in rural areas.
3% Urban Seniors are more 2% prevalent in rural Saskatchewan than 1% they are in the cities. Children are more 0% prevalent in rural 0-4 5-9 10- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 plus areas.
September 16, 2004 20 Age of Urban Residents
Age Distribution in 2001
Saskatoon 21% 16% 15% Although the Regina 20% 16% 16% differences are small, Swift Current Prince Albert 23% 15% 16% and Yorkton are the North Battleford 22% 15% 21% “oldest” cities; Saskatoon is the Estevan 22% 15% 17% youngest. Moose Jaw 19% 14% 23%
Yorkton 19% 13% 25% North Battleford and Yorkton have Swift Current 18% 14% 24% the lowest proportion in the 25 RURAL AVERAGE 22% 14% 22% to 59 age group. URBAN AVERAGE 20% 16% 17%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 59 60 plus
September 16, 2004 21 Other Demographic Characteristics
September 16, 2004 22 Aboriginal Identity
Aboriginal Population as Percentage of Total, 2001
There is a huge Swift Current variation in the First Nation Estevan proportion of Aboriginal people Moose Jaw Métis & other Aboriginal (self-identified) in Regina cities.
Saskatoon Prince Albert and URBAN AVERAGE North Battleford have Yorkton the highest percentage; southern RURAL AVERAGE cities the lowest.
North Battleford The provincial Prince Albert average is 13.5%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
September 16, 2004 23 Age of Aboriginal Population
Urban Age Distributions in 2001
18% percent of population Unlike the non- 16% Aboriginal population, the 14% Aboriginal 12% population in urban centres is 10% very young.
8% 49% of urban 6% Aboriginals are under 20 years of 4% Urban non-Aboriginal age compared with 26% of 2% Urban Aboriginal urban non- 0% Aboriginals. 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 years plus
September 16, 2004 24 Immigration
Immigrant Population as Percentage of Total, 2001
RURAL AVERAGE The urban areas have a Recent (Since 1991) disproportionate Yorkton number of the recent Before 1991 Prince Albert immigrants in Saskatchewan (persons Estevan born outside Canada).
North Battleford The proportion is still Moose Jaw very low compared with Swift Current other Canadian cities. Recent immigrants are URBAN AVERAGE 17% of the population in Toronto and Regina Vancouver; 4% in Saskatoon Winnipeg; 7% in Calgary. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
September 16, 2004 25 Members of a Visible Minority Group
Visible Minority Population as Percentage of Total, 2001
RURAL AVERAGE Membership in a Estevan visible minority group and recent Yorkton immigration tend to Prince Albert go hand in hand.
North Battleford Saskatoon and Moose Jaw Regina have the Swift Current most members; Estevan the fewest. URBAN AVERAGE All of the Regina proportions are small relative to Saskatoon other Canadian cities. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
September 16, 2004 26 Economic Characteristics
September 16, 2004 27 Education
Completed Education Levels in 2001
Saskatoon This chart shows the highest level of URBAN AVERAGE completed education Regina among the adult (15 & older) population. Prince Albert
Swift Current Education levels tend North Battleford to reflect economic activity. Higher levels Moose Jaw of education are required, for Estevan example, in public Yorkton sector activities - education, health, RURAL AVERAGE government. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Post-secondary Graduates At least grade 12
September 16, 2004 28 Employment Rates
Employment Rate (15 to 64 years) in May 2001
Prince Albert This is the
Moose Jaw percentage of the adult (15 to 64) RURAL AVERAGE population employed in May North Battleford 2001. Saskatoon Higher levels of Yorkton employment tend URBAN AVERAGE to mean more prosperity but they Regina can also indicate a shortage of Swift Current workers. Estevan
65% 70% 75% 80% 85%
September 16, 2004 29 Employment Growth
Growth in Employment, 1996 to 2001
Moose Jaw Employment grew in all but one of the urban RURAL AVERAGE centres. Moose Jaw suffered from the Swift Current downsizing of the air Estevan forces base.
Prince Albert Saskatoon had the North Battleford largest increase.
Yorkton In the previous five Regina years (1991-96), Saskatoon had the URBAN AVERAGE highest growth; employment in North Saskatoon Battleford, Yorkton, and -2%0%2%4%6%8%Moose Jaw declined.
September 16, 2004 30 Industry Sectors
Industry Mix in 2001
RURAL AVERAGE “Other goods Estevan producing” is:
utilities; Swift Current manufacturing; Yorkton the oil/gas and Saskatoon mining sectors; and
URBAN AVERAGE construction Regina “Public sector Moose Jaw services” is health North Battleford and social services, Prince Albert education, and government. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agriculture Other goods-producing Private sector services Public sector services
September 16, 2004 31 Income
Average Income in 2000
Estevan Estevan has the highest average Regina income among the URBAN AVERAGE cities, Yorkton the lowest. Saskatoon
Prince Albert All of the urban
Swift Current centres have higher incomes than the Moose Jaw rural average. Individual North Battleford Household Yorkton
RURAL AVERAGE
$10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 thousands
September 16, 2004 32 Market Value of Houses
Average Market Value of Owner-Occupied Dwellings, 2001
Saskatoon Housing costs are much higher in the URBAN AVERAGE cities, of course. Estevan The average market value of owned Regina dwellings was Prince Albert $112,000 in 2001 compared with Swift Current $63,000 for rural Yorkton areas.
Moose Jaw
North Battleford
RURAL AVERAGE
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 thousands
September 16, 2004 33 Summary
Some key statistics affecting urban planners are summarized below.
The population of urban centres is growing more quickly than the rural population but this still means many are declining in size.
The number of households is increasing more quickly than the population.
A relatively large number of Saskatchewan residents are choosing to live just outside the urban areas rather than within the cities.
Relative to rural Saskatchewan, residents of urban centres tend to be:
more likely to be 20 to 49 years of age, less likely to be 55 or older;
more diverse - e.g. members of a visible minority group, recent immigrants, although the Aboriginal population varies significantly by city;
with higher levels of employment, education, and income.
September 16, 2004 34