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Economic and Demographic Trends in Saskatchewan Cities

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Economic and Demographic Trends in Saskatchewan Cities Economic and Demographic Trends in Saskatchewan Cities Presentation to the: Association of Professional Community Planners of Saskatchewan Doug Elliott Tel: 306-522-5515 Sask Trends Monitor Fax: 306-522-5838 444 19th Avenue Email: [email protected] Regina, Saskatchewan Internet: www.sasktrends.ca S4N 1H1 September 16, 2004 1 Outline General Overview of Provincial Demographics Saskatchewan Cities and urban areas Age and Demographic Characteristics of Urban residents Socioeconomic Characteristics of Urban residents September 16, 2004 2 Provincial Population Saskatchewan Population 1,050 thousands Saskatchewan’s 1,025 population is effectively one 1,000 million people, has been for about 975 thirty years, and is expected to hover 950 near that mark for 925 the foreseeable future. 900 There are lots of 875 changes happening actual projected within this “stable” 850 group of one million 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 people. as of July: September 16, 2004 3 Inter-Provincial Migration Inter-Provincial Migration to/from Saskatchewan 45 thousands Declining fertility and longer 40 life expectancy affect the 35 out-migration overall population size but the 30 main determinant is inter- 25 provincial migration. 20 15 in-migration Inter-provincial migration 10 contributed to population 5 growth in only a few of the 0 past 30 years. (5) (10) A disproportionate number of (15) net migration people leaving the province (20) are young and well educated. (25) Last year, 40% of out- 1971- 1975- 1979- 1983- 1987- 1991- 1995- 1999- migrants were 20 to 34 years 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 of age; 55% were post- secondary graduates. July to June: September 16, 2004 4 Changing Age Structures Saskatchewan Population in July 2003 18,000 The older end of the “baby boom” generation (in their 16,000 mid fifties) is already 14,000 contemplating retirement. 12,000 56 years Because of out-migration, we have a smaller “bust” 10,000 generation coming behind echo boom to replace retiring 8,000 bust boomers. 6,000 The “echo” in 4,000 Saskatchewan is relatively primary labour market age large because of the 2,000 Aboriginal population. 0 0 4 8 1216202428323640444852566064687276 individual years of age September 16, 2004 5 Historical Pattern of Urbanization Urbanization in Saskatchewan 900 thousands This is the only long- 800 term measure we have for urbanization 700 in Saskatchewan; a non-farm population 600 “farm/non-farm” breakdown. 500 400 In 1951, there were as many people 300 living on the farm as farm population off the farm. By 200 2001, the ratio of non-farm to farm 100 population was 7:1. 0 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 September 16, 2004 6 Saskatchewan Urban Centres September 16, 2004 7 Saskatchewan Urban Area Populations Saskatoon 196,811 Regina 178,225 Prince Albert 34,291 Moose Jaw 32,131 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Population-wise, these are the four largest centres in Saskatchewan. The figures are from the census and are as of May 2001. September 16, 2004 8 Saskatchewan Urban Area Populations Yorkton 15,107 Swift Current 14,821 North Battleford 13,692 Estevan 10,242 Weyburn 9,534 Lloydminster (Sask) 7,840 Melfort 5,559 Humboldt 5,161 Meadow Lake 4,582 Kindersley 4,548 Melville 4,453 Martensville 4,365 Nipawin 4,275 Battleford 3,820 Warman 3,481 Tisdale 3,063 La Ronge 2,727 Assiniboia 2,483 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 These are the next eighteen largest centres in Saskatchewan according to their 2001 population. September 16, 2004 9 Population Changes, 1996 to 2001 Martensville Warman Tisdale Lloydminster (Sask) Humboldt Saskatoon Population change from 1996 to 2001 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Only 6 of the 22 largest communities grew from 1996 to 2001. September 16, 2004 10 Population Changes, 1996 to 2001 Yorkton Swift Current Population change from 1996 to 2001 Nipawin Regina Prince Albert Weyburn Moose Jaw North Battleford Kindersley Battleford Melfort Melville Estevan Meadow Lake Assiniboia La Ronge -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% September 16, 2004 11 Changes in the Number of “Households” Change in the Number of Households Lloydminster (SK) Many urban centres Humboldt with a population Saskatoon decline still have an Swift Current increase in the Yorkton number of Regina households. Weyburn Kindersley This is because Prince Albert households are North Battleford getting smaller in Moose Jaw the sense of the Meadow Lake average number of Melville people living in Estevan them. Change from 1996 to 2001 Melfort -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% September 16, 2004 12 City vs. “Census Metropolitan Areas” September 16, 2004 13 Census Metropolitan Areas/Agglomeration Areas Statistics Canada uses commuting patterns as a method of determining “census metropolitan areas” (CMAs) for large cities and “census agglomerations” (CAs) for smaller cities. These are the communities considered “part of” the cities for smaller urban areas in Saskatchewan, i.e. CAs: Yorkton - Orkney RM#244, Ebenezer, Springside, Willowbrook Estevan - Estevan RM#5, Bienfait Moose Jaw - Moose Jaw RM#161 Swift Current - Swift Current RM#137 North Battleford - Town of Battleford Prince Albert - Prince Albert RM#461, Buckland RM#491, Wahpaton Reserve September 16, 2004 14 Regina Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Regina Beach Lumsden Balgonie Pilot Butte Pense September 16, 2004 15 Saskatoon Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Osler Langham Dalmeny Martensville Asquith Clavet Colonsay Delisle Allan Dundurn September 16, 2004 16 Population including CMA/CAs Population of Major Urban Centres, 2001 (including surrounding areas) Rest of Sask 413,713 Prince Albert 41,460 Moose Jaw 33,519 Other urban Yorkton 146,495 17,554 North Battleford 17,512 Swift Current Regina 16,527 192,800 Estevan 12,083 Saskatoon Lloydminster (Sask 225,927 part) 7,840 September 16, 2004 17 Population Growth for CMAs Population Change, 1996 to 2001 Estevan One of the reasons that population has not Moose Jaw grown, even in some of the larger centres, is North Battleford that people are often choosing to live outside Yorkton the city boundaries. Prince Albert This is particularly true in Saskatoon, Swift Regina Current, Regina, and Prince Albert. The Swift Current opposite is true in Including CMA Yorkton and Moose Saskatoon City Proper Jaw. -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% September 16, 2004 18 Age Characteristics …unless otherwise indicated, all of the statistics in the rest of this presentation refer to the 8 largest CMAs or CAs in the province, i.e. Regina, Saskatoon, Prince Albert, Moose Jaw, Yorkton, Swift Current, North Battleford, and Estevan September 16, 2004 19 Age Distributions in 2001 Age Distribution in 2001 9% percent of population The relative lack of 8% young people in Saskatchewan is 7% more pronounced in rural areas. In urban 6% areas, 15% of the population is 20 to 34 5% Rural compared with 21% 4% in rural areas. 3% Urban Seniors are more 2% prevalent in rural Saskatchewan than 1% they are in the cities. Children are more 0% prevalent in rural 0-4 5-9 10- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 plus areas. September 16, 2004 20 Age of Urban Residents Age Distribution in 2001 Saskatoon 21% 16% 15% Although the Regina 20% 16% 16% differences are small, Swift Current Prince Albert 23% 15% 16% and Yorkton are the North Battleford 22% 15% 21% “oldest” cities; Saskatoon is the Estevan 22% 15% 17% youngest. Moose Jaw 19% 14% 23% Yorkton 19% 13% 25% North Battleford and Yorkton have Swift Current 18% 14% 24% the lowest proportion in the 25 RURAL AVERAGE 22% 14% 22% to 59 age group. URBAN AVERAGE 20% 16% 17% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 59 60 plus September 16, 2004 21 Other Demographic Characteristics September 16, 2004 22 Aboriginal Identity Aboriginal Population as Percentage of Total, 2001 There is a huge Swift Current variation in the First Nation Estevan proportion of Aboriginal people Moose Jaw Métis & other Aboriginal (self-identified) in Regina cities. Saskatoon Prince Albert and URBAN AVERAGE North Battleford have Yorkton the highest percentage; southern RURAL AVERAGE cities the lowest. North Battleford The provincial Prince Albert average is 13.5%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% September 16, 2004 23 Age of Aboriginal Population Urban Age Distributions in 2001 18% percent of population Unlike the non- 16% Aboriginal population, the 14% Aboriginal 12% population in urban centres is 10% very young. 8% 49% of urban 6% Aboriginals are under 20 years of 4% Urban non-Aboriginal age compared with 26% of 2% Urban Aboriginal urban non- 0% Aboriginals. 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 years plus September 16, 2004 24 Immigration Immigrant Population as Percentage of Total, 2001 RURAL AVERAGE The urban areas have a Recent (Since 1991) disproportionate Yorkton number of the recent Before 1991 Prince Albert immigrants in Saskatchewan (persons Estevan born outside Canada). North Battleford The proportion is still Moose Jaw very low compared with Swift Current other Canadian cities. Recent immigrants are URBAN AVERAGE 17% of the population in Toronto and Regina Vancouver; 4% in Saskatoon Winnipeg; 7% in Calgary. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% September 16, 2004 25 Members of a Visible Minority Group Visible Minority Population as Percentage of Total, 2001 RURAL AVERAGE Membership in a Estevan visible minority group and recent Yorkton immigration tend to Prince Albert go hand in hand.
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