Case for Change JULY 2021 Contents
Section 1 03 Executive summary
Section 2 12 Introduction
Section 3 13 Our objectives
Section 4 15 Our ambition
Section 5 18 Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership
Section 6 28 Our hospitals
Section 7 53 Delivering the Lancashire and South Cumbria Clinical Strategy
Section 8 62 Our infrastructure does not support our future digital technology ambitions
Section 9 66 Our infrastructure impedes our ability to recruit and retain our workforce
Section 10 69 Our infrastructure impacts our use of resources
Section 11 72 Conclusion
Appendix 75
Case for Change: Executive summary 03 Section 1
Executive summary The New Hospitals Programme offers Lancashire and South Cumbria a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform our ageing hospitals and develop new, cutting-edge hospital facilities that offer the absolute best in modern healthcare. Our ambition is to make our region a world- leading centre of excellence for hospital care.
Hospitals are widely recognised as being an This case for change sets out why investment essential part of the wider health system, and in new hospital infrastructure to replace Royal this funding opportunity has been ring-fenced by Preston Hospital and Royal Lancaster Infirmary the Government specifically to improve hospital is the number one strategic priority for our estates and facilities. However, this can only health economy to help us deliver on our wider be delivered in close partnership with the wider ambitions to empower and support healthy local health system. We understand that to achieve communities, so that local people have the the absolute best, world-leading status we seek best start in life and can live and age well. We for Lancashire and South Cumbria, investment also explain the case for investment in Furness in hospitals must have a significant positive General Hospital in the context of its strategic impact on life expectancy and population health importance in the sustainable provision of in the region. We must help the NHS to deliver healthcare services to the geographically remote seamless, joined up care for those who rely population of Barrow-in-Furness and proximity to on us the most. As such, it is our intention that major strategic national assets. funding for new hospital facilities will help the NHS to deliver our collective regional health objectives set out in the Lancashire and South Cumbria Integrated Care System strategy.1
1 Lancashire and South Cumbria’s Healthier Lancashire and South Cumbria Strategy is available at www.healthierlsc.co.uk/Strategy Case for Change: Executive summary 04
To play its part in improving healthcare and health outcomes, the New Hospitals Programme must work to address five critical challenges.
1. Demographic trends and access 2. Ageing acute estate 3. Specific site-related problems 4. Keeping up with the best in the world 5. Playing a full part in rebuilding our regional economy
The five critical challenges 1. Demographic trends and access
Our hospitals work together with the rest A population of of the NHS and partners in the region to provide services to a population of 1.8m people across diverse communities and varied geographies. 1.8m Across this geography, accessibility to services and travel pose a significant challenge for all public service providers as towns and cities are widely spread and the topography adds to expected travel times.
Our population is ageing, with the number 22%increase in over 65s of people over 65 projected to increase by 22% by 2030. Our region also faces a by 2030 greater burden of mental and physical ill- health than the rest of England, along with deep socioeconomic challenges. 20% of our population lives in the 10% most deprived communities. There is a proven link between these factors and NHS activity levels - we anticipate an increase in demand on health services both in and out of hospitals in the 20%of our population future. lives in the
10%most deprived communities Case for Change: Executive summary 05
The five critical challenges 2. Ageing acute estate
Our hospital estate is some of the worst in the North West. It does not comply with many of today’s most basic standards and restricts our ambition to provide high-quality, safe, efficient and cost-effective services for our communities.
Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (LTHTr) and University Hospitals of Morecambe Bay NHS Foundation Trust (UHMBT) operate across five sites, with a variety of buildings largely constructed between 30 and 50 years ago and with some buildings dating back to the 19th century still in active use.
The condition of Royal Lancaster Infirmary (RLI) and Royal Preston Hospital (RPH) has reached a critical stage. Without investment, buildings and services could fail. This would create further adverse impact on our patients’ deepening health inequalities and increase the burden of ill-health on our population. Any adverse impact on services due to the quality of the estate Royal Lancaster Infirmary at Furness General Hospital would have a deeper impact due to its geographical location. Investment is needed to ensure its sustainability in this strategic context. Other providers across our region would not be able to absorb the resulting increase in demand, impacting their sustainability.
The poor condition of the hospital infrastructure is a structural barrier to our ability to recruit and retain the number of staff we need to deliver services. This is now a significant and increasing issue for our ability to operate effectively and for our sustainability as a health service within the region. Investment in new infrastructure is essential if we are to provoke a step change in the supply of a high calibre workforce and reduce over reliance on agency staff. Case for Change: Executive summary 06
The five critical challenges 3. Specific site-related problems
Royal Preston Hospital estate
Royal Preston Hospital (RPH) has suffered from decades of under-investment. More than 70% of its clinical facilities date from the 1970s to 1990s and, as a result, experience serious dilapidation. As the Lancashire and South Cumbria region’s major trauma centre and provider of specialised and cancer services, the impact of declining estates and the associated risks of unplanned changes to clinical services are unsustainable.
Independent appraisal has confirmed 80% of the Royal Preston Hospital site requires redevelopment or demolition over the medium to long term.
Royal Preston Hospital
Key challenges
1. Backlog maintenance costs 3. Non-compliance with Health 5. Some tertiary (highly total £157m. Building Notes (HBN): specialised) services have space and single room developed and expanded 2. Demand exceeds capacity provision (19% versus 50% without being able to meet across all clinical areas: HBN) and operating theatre all the estate requirements, aged buildings lack flexible capacity 40% below HBN restricting our ability to offer capacity, leading to congestion requirements. This makes some specialised services and overcrowding, meaning it challenging to implement that should be available to that patients wait longer safe infection control our population. than is acceptable for all measures and we cannot aspects of care. meet the privacy and dignity 6. Car parking capacity is standards we expect inadequate and consistently for our patients. highlighted as a concern, with 1,000 staff being 4 Poor clinical adjacencies required to park off-site and and lengthy circulation use Park and Ride. spaces adversely affect patients’ and carers’ experiences in our hospitals. Case for Change: Executive summary 07
Royal Lancaster Infirmary estate
The Royal Lancaster Infirmary (RLI) comprises around 20 separate buildings of varying sizes and ages. Most, but not all of the buildings, are linked by long passages and some buildings are separated from the main complex by public highways. Consequently, staff and patients must make longer journeys than is desirable, leading to poor experiences of care, patient discomfort and significant operational inefficiencies. Several services are provided in temporary buildings offering poor quality accommodation and others Royal Lancaster Infirmary are past their useful life. Most of the site is located on a slope, which in some areas is too steep for patients to be safely moved except by ambulance. The hospital lacks an obvious main entrance, which can be confusing for patients and visitors.
Key challenges
1. Backlog maintenance 3. Site is configured over a 5. Outdated cancer centre. costs total £88m, this is challenging topography. predominantly relating to the Access is particularly 6. Car parking is inadequate: condition of the estate. challenging for people with 460 spaces for more than a disability and transport to 2,500 staff and no electric 2. Running costs are double some parts of the hospital charge points. that of a new build at (separate ward blocks) is £442 per m2 due to the only possible by ambulance. age of the site (running costs involve replacement: 4. The estate fails to meet that is lifecycle costs over many Health Building Notes maintenance). (HBN) standards – single room provision is only 50% of the recommended standard and less than a third of our ambition for 70% single rooms. Case for Change: Executive summary 08
Furness General Hospital estate
Furness General Hospital (FGH) is faced with a significant challenge caused by backlog maintenance in estate that fails to meet some HBN standards and capacity requirements. This inflates the issues the hospital has in recruiting and retaining staff. There is also a significant risk that, as currently constituted, this site may never meet crucial carbon emission standards.
Furness General Hospital
Key challenges
Key challenges and specific 2. The estate fails to meet investment needed to meet some HBN standards and the future heath needs of capacity requirements. In the local population that can particular, the Critical Care be addressed in line with Unit / High Dependency the strategic priorities of Unit. There is a need to the national New Hospital improve the environment for Programme include: patients and staff, including increasing the single room 1. Significant backlog provision. maintenance, including an element of physical 3. The geographic location of condition and lifecycle FGH is remote, meaning it is works. Furness General essential we accommodate Hospital has estate running the latest digital costs of £375/m2. technologies and robotics to create an agile network of care across the region. Case for Change: Executive summary 09
Once-in-a- generation opportunity to revolutionise health services
Estate in summary
We believe the need for new hospital facilities in the region is unequivocal.
The age, condition and poor functional content of the existing hospital estate mean that we must address this critical need if we are to serve both the current and future needs of our local population.
However, our ambitions go much further than servicing the basic acute health needs of the population by building new infrastructure. We have an ambition to be part of a regional health system that will be regarded as one of the best in the world and play its part in revitalising the regional economy. Case for Change: Executive summary 10
The five critical challenges The five critical challenges 4. Keeping up with the best 5. Playing a full part in rebuilding in the world our regional economy
Investment in Lancashire and South Cumbria’s Our hospitals are some of Lancashire and NHS hospital infrastructure will enable South Cumbria’s most significant community us to provide state of the art facilities and assets: they are anchor institutions technology, strengthening our position as a providing healthcare to our population and centre of excellence for research, education employment to around 40,000 people. and specialised care. This will significantly boost the attractiveness of the area to potential The New Hospitals Programme will create recruits and the highest calibre of clinicians. jobs and support the economic regeneration of our region, needed now more than ever as We are committed to ensuring new hospitals the global pandemic has disproportionately fully embrace the benefits of digital technologies impacted those most in need. Investment in our to create an agile network of care, allowing us infrastructure will support us to build back better to optimise the size of our physical footprint and and help the NHS deliver on its net zero carbon minimise environmental impact. This will, in turn, ambition. enable us to provide more specialised services in our hospitals and deliver more care closer to home as part of the wider ambitions of the Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership.
We want the programme to play a leading role in tackling the key issues of our generation - cutting carbon emissions and environmental damage. Aged estate, which was built to service the needs of previous generations, is hampering our ability to be net carbon positive and run sustainably. Case for Change: Executive summary 11
What are the implications if we do not invest in new hospital infrastructure?
Nobody can accurately predict the future, but Together, we believe these factors build a we can make reasonable assumptions. It is compelling case for change and make the need critical that we work together as a region to to agree a way forward with the New Hospitals agree where and how to invest this funding Programme mission critical. for new hospitals; this may be our one opportunity to access investment of this Our case for change sets out in detail the scale for a generation. significant problem our ageing estate presents. It also details the impact of this on our patients’ If we opt not to deliver new hospital facilities, experience and health outcomes, working evidence shows that our buildings will become environments for our staff, and our ability to increasingly expensive to maintain, draining deliver services productively and efficiently. resources from the NHS and eventually becoming unfit for clinical use. At this point, All the comments contained within this document services will have to be delivered elsewhere. have been sourced from the many thousands In many cases, these services will require posted on ’The Big Chat’, an online platform modern facilities to be delivered from; given that which is facilitating ongoing feedback and Lancashire and South Cumbria will not have discussions amongst key stakeholders. Around appropriate facilities available without capital 40,000 people, including NHS staff, Foundation investment in hospital buildings, we face the risk Trust Members and community leaders are that services will have to move out of the local being invited to tell us their hopes, fears and area altogether. expectations in relation to new hospital facilities as part of a pre-consultation engagement In addition, the recruitment and retention of staff programme. (already a significant risk factor) will be made even more difficult to achieve. Without effective, cutting edge, well-staffed hospitals across the region, it will be unlikely that the local NHS can deliver on its commitment to improve health outcomes and patient experience.
Along with the risks to healthcare provision, “I want us to build brand new if we opt not to invest in new hospital estate, Lancashire and South Cumbria will also lose hospitals that are the most accessible the wider benefits that would be delivered by in the world – where people can get an infrastructure project of this scale. These there, get around and interact well include an immediate boost to local jobs and with their surroundings however able the regional economy, along with the investment they are.” attracted by building new hospital infrastructure. Case for Change: Introduction 12 Section 2 Introduction The New Hospitals Programme To develop the case for is a key strategic priority for the change, we have: Lancashire and South Cumbria 2 Health and Care Partnership. It sits Held dedicated case for change within the integrated care system’s workshops with more than 100 people, including clinicians, staff, patients and wider strategic vision, with the key stakeholders. central aim of delivering world- class hospital infrastructure from Undertaken a series of workshops which high-quality services can be involving patients, clinicians, staff and key stakeholders from across key provided. programme areas to understand how our hospital infrastructure impacts on In September 2019, the Government published the care they provide. its Health Infrastructure Plan (HIP).3 At the centre of this is a new hospital building Held listening meetings with elected programme, to ensure the NHS hospital estate representatives, community leaders enables the provision of world-class healthcare and interested parties. services. Further details of the strategic context are set out in the Appendix. Engaged in desktop research, data analysis and examination of the The purpose of this document is to outline our problems we face, and how modern case for change. It has been developed in infrastructure can support us to collaboration with experts: our clinicians, staff, address these challenges. patients, key stakeholders and representatives of the local communities we serve. Held an online conversation, The Big Chat, with staff, Foundation Trust members and community leaders about their hopes, fears and expectations. We have recorded and analysed more than 20,141 interactions from the 7,340 visits as of 1 July 2021.
We have listened carefully and reflected on the evidence to help us produce this document, which sets out the problems we hope to address and the ambitions we have for the future.
2 Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership: https://healthierlsc.co.uk 3 Health infrastructure plan. HM Government. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health- infrastructure-plan Case for Change: Our objectives 13 Section 3 Our objectives The New Hospitals Programme is underpinned by the objectives outlined below:
Provide patients with Improve service high-quality, next delivery and provide generation acute access to cutting hospital facilities that edge hospital will improve health technologies and outcomes across our deliver the best population. possible quality of care.
Design new hospital Increase resource buildings and facilities capacity and that can meet demand effectiveness, working and are flexible and collaboratively to sustainable. increase integration in service delivery.
Reduce health To have a positive inequalities and be impact on our local ready to meet the health area, bringing jobs, needs of the people of skills and contracts to Lancashire and South Lancashire and South Cumbria – both now and Cumbria’s businesses in the future. and residents. Case for Change: Our objectives 14
Our case for change sets out why investment in new hospital infrastructure to replace Royal Preston Hospital and Royal Lancaster Infirmary is the number one strategic priority for our health economy.
We have structured our case for change as follows:
Lancashire and South Cumbria – describes how our infrastructure impacts on our ability to provide care for our region, our population and respond to their current and future health needs
Our hospitals – describes the pivotal role of our hospitals in our community and the condition of our estate
Our clinical strategy – describes the fitness for purpose of our estate in the context of our ambitions for hospital care and the wider health and care system
Our workforce – describes the impact our estate has on our workforce supply and experience
Our digital ambitions – describes role of our infrastructure in fulfilling our digital and sustainability ambitions
Our use of resources – describes how our infrastructure impacts on our productivity and efficiency Case for Change: Our ambition 15 Section 4
“I think the idea of brand new hospitals is brilliant. It would bring the area up to high standards in technology and treatments. It would also open huge opportunities professionally!”
Our ambition The New Hospitals Programme (NHP) offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform our hospitals and the services we provide for local people by 2030. Our ambition is to make Lancashire and South Cumbria a world-leading centre of excellence for hospital care.
The Government has provided us with an Government funding has been granted to opportunity for significant capital investment. address significant issues with our ageing This presents us with the potential to do hospitals in Preston and Lancaster. These something amazing. We want to build on what buildings were designed for a different time and we are already great at, while developing cannot accommodate today’s more complex new, cutting-edge hospital facilities that take patient needs or new technologies. As well as advantage of emerging digital technologies, replacing these buildings with new facilities, our artificial intelligence and robotics to offer the proposals will be more far-reaching. absolute best in modern healthcare. Case for Change: Our ambition 16
We want to create a new digitally linked network Many people rely on our hospitals and other of brand new and refurbished facilities covering services to work as a team to overcome the our entire region and making Lancashire and health challenges they face on a day-to-day South Cumbria a renowned centre of excellence basis. We will give people of all ages and for hospital care. Our hospitals will work communities equal access to the best possible together to deliver highly specialised services hospital facilities. We will bring mental and to local people, ensuring patients can access physical health closer together. We will help local pioneering treatment either in person or using people in our region live longer, healthier lives. digital technology and providing joined up, truly excellent care. We want to expand the range of medical procedures and therapies available closer to home, bringing new highly specialised services, Our region is large and complex currently only available to patients who travel out with widespread health of the area, into our region. inequalities. We have 1.8 million people living in cities with diverse cultures and communities, rural areas and coastal towns. Case for Change: Our ambition 17
We will offer outstanding hospital services, We do not yet know what our new hospital including cancer and trauma care that patients facilities will look like or where they will be and staff know are world leading. These will be located. Our proposals will be led by the needs delivered in purpose-built spaces that employ of our patients, staff and local people. We will the latest ground-breaking technology and be guided by clinical opinion, experience, robust research, attracting the best clinical minds to scientific evidence and data, along with the work and study in our region. power of feedback, ideas and the imagination of our local communities. We will also look at the experience that patients, families and carers have when they visit our hospitals. We want to offer privacy and dignity through more private rooms and create the Hospitals have the power to space for our staff to care for patients in the way they would like. transform our region. We want to use this opportunity to achieve just The positive impact of this work will reach that, working together to help local further than new hospitals. It will deliver people live longer, healthier lives. sustained economic benefit to a region with significant socioeconomic challenges, attracting investment and jobs. It is also a key element of delivering our local NHS’s vision of offering patients complex care closer to home, improving community health and wellbeing services and the overall experience for local people. Case for Change: Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership 18 Section 5 Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership (our region’s integrated care system) is committed to improving health and wellbeing and delivering better care for all. To achieve this, the integrated care system ‘Healthier Lancashire and South Cumbria’ strategy has outlined the ambition that local people will:
• Have longer, healthier lives
• Be more active in managing their own health and wellbeing to maintain their physical independence for longer
• Be supported to keep well both physically and mentally
• Be central to decision making
• Have consistent, high quality services across Lancashire and South Cumbria
• Have joined up services and support, which are easier to navigate and access
• Have services and support that are responsive to local need
• Have equal access to the most effective support with reduced waiting times Case for Change: Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership 19
Directly supporting the Health and Care Partnership strategy
New hospital facilities will support the This work will directly align to the Health and delivery of these goals. Although it will take Care Partnership’s strategic ambitions of up to 2030 to plan and build new hospital delivering joined up support enabled by digital facilities, we believe that the prospect of technology and helping reduce waiting times better, more agile hospital facilities, designed through more efficient, effective treatment and to accommodate the region’s changing care, contributing to local people living longer, population demographics and health needs, healthier lives. will support the delivery of these goals in the short term by increasing staff morale, The strategy predicts that by 2025, local recruitment and retention. people’s experience of health and care in our region will have improved. We believe that The development of new hospital facilities will the realistic prospect of new hospitals will also indirectly but significantly, impact on the contribute to this, and that, once built; our new wider determinants of health and wellbeing hospital infrastructure will sit within an evolved by attracting investment into the region and health and care landscape and will continue contributing to the number of high-quality jobs to contribute to delivering the Health and Care available in the local community. Partnership’s ambition. Some of Lancashire and South Cumbria’s most significant health risks The knowledge that new, modern hospital estate are: coronary heart disease, stroke, Chronic will be available in the near future will also Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) enable our clinical teams to plan delivery of the circulatory disease, cancers and deaths from latest cutting-edge therapies and treatments. causes considered preventable are worse than Health systems will adapt to be ready to work the England average. When people experience with the latest technology and approaches these conditions at a chronic level, they require delivered within the new hospital infrastructure, hospital-based care. with the further incentive of being part of a health network that will deliver higher standards of care across Lancashire and South Cumbria. Case for Change: Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership 20
Specifically, new hospital facilities will align with the delivery of the Health and Care Partnership’s strategy as follows:
Health and Care Partnership Contribution of new hospital ambition for 2025 infrastructure (post-2030)
Local people will be: Local people will benefit from:
More active in managing their health and Use of modern hospital quality resource wellbeing and decisions they make which to assist people to manage their own affect them conditions in partnership with the NHS
Supported to improve their long term health The impact of the NHS and Health and Care and wellbeing Partnership’s work to improve long term health and wellbeing Living well before they die, in the place of their choice in peace and dignity Use of digital and other monitoring technologies to increase patient choice Using technology to manage their health about where they are treated, limiting the isolation many feel during hospital treatment More involved in decision making in their area Adoption of governance and accountability Making best use of local housing and leisure practices that empower the voice of the services by connecting with integrated most vulnerable (both in the build and the community teams delivery phase of these facilities
Living in dynamic, empowered communities Creation of shared facilities that can be where people can live, work and thrive enjoyed by the entire local community to enhance their wellbeing (such as gyms, Benefiting from more co-ordinated and allotments etc.) joined-up care Provision of economic opportunities and Receiving care from hospitals, which provide well-paid jobs to local people and, as a key networks of services, with sustainable anchor institution, play a full part in civic life staffing levels and consistent pathways Delivery of acute health interventions when Supported to live longer, healthier lives with required, as part of an overall package of care earlier diagnosis of conditions and advice on prevention Provision of facilities for higher-level diagnostics and expert advice (in region) Case for Change: Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership 21
Health and Care Partnership Contribution of new hospital ambition for 2025 infrastructure (post-2030)
Staff will be: Staff will benefit from:
Happier, healthier and more resilient The opportunity to plan where and how the new facilities are appointed Provided with a wider range of roles and support to develop new skills and New facilities, which cater specifically to staff capabilities wellbeing
Working in integrated community teams, New challenges, opportunities and roles for delivering targeted and coordinated physical the next generation of staff in our region and mental health care to their local neighbourhoods Mental and physical health delivered as part of a seamless package of care Better able to support people they care for, through greater access to data shared by New facilities specifically designed to allow partners experts to collect, analyse and share data
Attracted into working and living in Opportunities for staff to learn and develop Lancashire and South Cumbria and for and patients to thrive
The ability to offer equal or better working conditions, only deliverable with new hospital facilities
Partners will be: Partners will benefit from:
Able to demonstrate how public sector Delivery of economic growth and organisations have supported economic employment, and creation of new and development and innovation, resulting different jobs in health and care in employing local people into new and different jobs in health and care New facilities designed to be sustainable and meet modern standards of efficiency Able to demonstrate that they are getting the best value health and care New hospital facilities able to deliver better therapies and treatments, extending the Confident in the evidence of improving life lives of many individuals and improving life expectancy and reducing inequalities in the expectancy overall most deprived neighbourhoods through our approach to population health Better access for the most deprived
Able to demonstrate how health and Significant contribution to the overall wellbeing has been considered in public calculation of greater value added (GVA) to policies such as education, housing, the region as a whole economic development, transport and retail Case for Change: Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership 22
Working in partnership with the wider health system
The Lancashire and South Cumbria Health Each local health and care partnership contains and Care Partnership is made up of five a number of Primary Care Networks (PCN). Integrated Care Partnerships (ICPs) across There are 41 PCNs bringing together 202 the wider geography, which are working GP practices. The PCNs are aligned to wider together under the integrated care system public and voluntary sector services within their vision to improve healthcare services across neighbourhood. Our geography is diverse, the region. They are: ranging from the city status of Preston to highly remote communities such as Barrow-in-Furness.
Morecambe Bay The New Hospitals Programme will need to work in tandem with PCNs and GP practices to ensure new hospital infrastructure is fully integrated and networked with future primary care arrangements. This access is critical to the delivery of better health outcomes for the region as a whole. Pennine Lancashire Specific attention must be given to retaining and improving access to acute services for Fylde people from the most economically deprived Coast and educationally under-attaining council wards in the region. These geographic areas are strongly aligned to the areas that suffer the most West Lancashire ill-health. Working closely with the PCNs and GP practices in these areas will be significant Central in helping us understand how we can work Lancashire creatively to help address this problem.
We will be actively seeking ideas about how the New Hospitals Programme can help address some of the lifestyle contributors to ill-health. For example, can hospitals play a role in reducing prevalence of smoking, supporting people with weight loss and increasing physical activity, and reducing alcohol consumption, through coordinated health promotion activity and behaviour change programmes?
The care, treatment, services and experience delivered by our local hospitals is a fundamental component of our region’s ability to deliver on the Health and Care Partnership’s strategy for local people. As such, the New Hospitals Programme is closely aligned to the integrated care system’s ambitions and approach, with the needs, views and feedback of local people a fundamental part of shaping proposals. Case for Change: Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership 23
Demographic demands and trends
Lancashire and South Cumbria’s hospitals The number of people living in Lancashire and serve a population of 1.8m across a diverse South Cumbria is predicted to rise, with the range of communities with widespread largest proportional increase expected in our health inequalities. Our region’s challenges older population: the 65 plus years population are significant and well documented. is projected to see a 21.8% increase between 2018 and 2030.4 The elderly population is Our region faces a greater burden of mental fundamental in terms of cost: rising numbers and physical ill-health than the rest of England, will create a significant proportional impact on along with deep socioeconomic challenges. 20% operational and financial pressures. of our population live in the 10% most deprived communities and the number of people in fuel Advances in medical technology and practice poverty, children living in poverty and economic mean that more children are surviving with inactivity rates are higher than the rest of the conditions that would not have been viable a country. With this lies a risk that opportunities to few years ago. Although the population of under improve outcomes result in digital exclusion, and 19s is not increasing, the complexities of these this applies to our older population. conditions have a consequence in terms of higher costs of care.
An ageing population and advances in medical technology mean that the demand for specialised services is increasing more rapidly than other parts of the NHS.5 In Lancashire and South Cumbria, we expect a 28% increase in cancer diagnosis in the next ten years.
4 Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership (2020). Our Clinical Strategy: Creating a Healthy Population. Available from: https://www.healthierlsc.co.uk/ClinicalStrategy 5 https://www.england.nhs.uk/commissioning/spec-services Case for Change: Lancashire and South Cumbria Health and Care Partnership 24
Life expectancy
Men and women in Lancaster, Preston and Barrow-in-Furness all have lower average life expectancy than the England average. Access to top quality acute hospital facilities can, of course, have a dramatic live saving effect for an individual.
Fe ale life expectancy y council area National a erage 83.1
Cumbria - 2. years Lancashire - 2.2 years Blackpool - 79.6 years Blackburn with Darwen - 0.1 years
50 years 60 years 70 years 80 years 90 years