Electroencephalographic Correlates of Temporal Bayesian Belief Updating and Surprise a,b,* a b,c d c,e Antonino Visalli , Mariagrazia Capizzi , Ettore Ambrosini , Bruno Kopp , Antonino Vallesi a Department of Neuroscience, University of Padova, 35128 Padova, Italy b Department of General Psychology, University of Padova, 35131 Padova, Italy c Department of Neuroscience & Padova Neuroscience Center, University of Padova, 35131 Padova, Italy d Department of Neurology, Hannover Medical School, 30625 Hannover, Germany e Brain Imaging and Neural Dynamics Research Group, IRCCS San Camillo Hospital, 30126 Venice, Italy *Address for correspondence: Antonino Visalli Department of Neuroscience, University of Padova Via Giustiniani 5, 35128 Padova, Italy Phone number: (+39) 049 8214450 Email:
[email protected] 1 Abstract The brain predicts the timing of forthcoming events to optimize responses to them. Temporal predictions have been formalized in terms of the hazard function, which integrates prior beliefs on the likely timing of stimulus occurrence with information conveyed by the passage of time. However, how the human brain updates prior temporal beliefs is still elusive. Here we investigated electroencephalographic (EEG) signatures associated with Bayes-optimal updating of temporal beliefs. Given that updating usually occurs in response to surprising events, we sought to disentangle EEG correlates of updating from those associated with surprise. Twenty-siX participants performed a temporal foreperiod task, which comprised a subset of surprising events not eliciting updating. EEG data were analyzed through a regression-based massive approach in the electrode and source space. Distinct late positive, centro-parietally distributed, event-related potentials (ERPs) were associated with surprise and belief updating in the electrode space.