Global Bioenergy Supply and Demand Projections: a Working

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Global Bioenergy Supply and Demand Projections: a Working IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Global Bioenergy SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTIONS A working paper for REmap 2030 September 2014 Copyright © IRENA 2014 Unless otherwise indicated, the material in this publication may be used freely, shared or reprinted, so long as IRENA is acknowledged as the source. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international cooperation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org/remap Acknowledgements This final report has benefitted from valuable comments provided by external reviewers Adam Brown, Anselm Eisentraut and Paolo Frankl (International Energy Agency), Ric Hoefnagels (Utrecht University), Tatsuji Koizumi (Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Japan), Heinz Kopetz (World Bioenergy Association) and Kinya Sakanishi (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan) and IRENA colleagues Jeffrey Skeer and Frank Wouters. For more information about REmap 2030 please visit www.irena.org/remap. IRENA is grateful for the generous support of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan, which made the publication of this report a reality. Authors: Shunichi Nakada (IRENA), Deger Saygin (IRENA) and Dolf Gielen (IRENA). For further information or to provide feedback, please contact the REmap team. E-mail: [email protected]. Disclaimer While this publication promotes the adoption and use of renewable energy, the International Renewable Energy Agency does not endorse any particular project, product or service provider. The designations employed and the presentation of materials herein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Renewable Energy Agency concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Global Bioenergy SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTIONS A Working Paper for REmap 2030 September 2014 ii Global Bioenergy Supply and Demand Projections for the Year 2030 CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������V LIST OF TABLES ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������VI LIST OF BOXES ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������VI KEY FINDINGS ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������1 1 INTRODUCTION ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������3 2 METHODOLOGY �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������5 2�1 Overview of the biomass demand and supply framework �����������������������������������������������������������������������������5 2�2 Biomass supply �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������7 ● Bioenergy crops ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������8 ● Agricultural residues ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 9 ● Post-consumer waste ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������10 ● Animal waste �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������10 ● Forest products ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������10 2�3 Biomass supply cost �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������12 2�4 Biomass trade ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������12 3 CURRENT BIOENERGY MARKET SITUATION AND SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS BY SECTOR ������������������15 3�1 Power generation sector ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������18 3�2 Building sector ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������18 3�3 Manufacturing industry sector ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������18 3�4 Transport sector ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������19 4 RESULTS �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������23 4�1 Sector-level bioenergy demand estimates in 2030 ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������23 4�2 Country-level bioenergy demand estimates in 2030 �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������24 4�3 Biomass supply potential and costs in 2030 ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 27 ● Comparison of other studies �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������28 ● Comparison of the estimated supply and demand for different bioenergy applications ���������32 ● Biomass supply cost estimates �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������34 4�4 Impact on international bioenergy trade �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������35 5 DISCUSSION OF BIOENERGY DEMAND ESTIMATES ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 37 5�1 Challenges in realising the estimated growth in bioenergy demand ������������������������������������������������������� 37 5�2 Challenges in realising the estimated growth in bioenergy supply ����������������������������������������������������������39 Global Bioenergy Supply and Demand Projections for the Year 2030 iii 6 DISCUSSION OF BIOMASS SUPPLY COSTS �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������42 7 SUSTAINABILITY OF BIOMASS �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������45 7�1 Environmental Issues ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������45 ● Carbon balance and emissions �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������45 ● Land use ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������46 7�2 Other environmental issues ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������47 7�3 Other social and economic sustainability issues ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������48 8 STRATEGIES AND TECHNOLOGIES TO REALISE SUSTAINABLE BIOENERGY GROWTH �����������������������50 8�1 Demand-side options ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������50 8�2 Supply-side options �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������52 8�3 Standards and certification of bioenergy ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 57 9 POLICY NEEDS TO SUSTAIN BIOENERGY GROWTH AND RAISE RENEWABLE
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