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High-Powered, the Energy Revolution Uncorrelated, LLC The Investment Lab Learn. Apply. Brainstorm. High-Powered, The Energy Revolution Uncorrelated, LLC Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 192.168.160.10 on 09/23/2021 “For decision makers trying to reconcile economic, energy security and environmental objectives, it is essential to be aware of the dynamics at the heart of today’s energy market. We have the tools to deal with such profound market change. Those that anticipate global energy developments successfully can derive an advantage, while those that do not risk taking poor policy and investment decisions.” Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director, IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 2 Downloaded from www.hvst.comAll Rights Reserved, Uncorrelated, by IP address LLC 2014, 192.168.160.10 The Investment Lab on 09/23/2021 All Rights Reserved, Uncorrelated, LLC 2014, The Investment Lab A ragtag team of wildcatters, dreamers, and the just plain desperate changed the course of the nation during the dark days of the financial crisis. In the backyards of Pennsylvania homes, under the headquarters of Exxon, and in the plains of North Dakota, these men found a way to extract energy from the deepest, most densely packed parts of the earth. Almost overnight, this country transitioned from a crotchety chorus of Peak Oil pessimists into flag-waving energy optimists. For investors, this signaled a rare opportunity. On June 19, 2014, a select group of pension, family office, and endowment and foundation investment officers gathered in New York City along with asset managers and Fund Evaluation Group consultants to wrestle with the investment implications of our energy independence, both in the short and long run. The Investment LAB: High- Powered, The Energy Revolution, a collaborative workshop, created a unique setting for engagement. Combining specialist lectures with small group discussion sessions, this LAB explored the technical and entrepreneurial developments inspired by the promise of U.S. energy independence. Experts and practitioners across the energy value chain described trends, issues, threats and opportunities to foster discussion and long-term thinking among investors. This LAB Report documents the initiative’s lessons and results and, in a special feature article, answers a key question: How should you invest in the Energy Revolution now? Learn. Apply. Brainstorm. The Investment LAB created a rare day of nuanced conversation on an investment once relegated to the ho-hum, inflation-protecting, cyclical bin. An energy revolution? Investment LAB founder Cathleen Rittereiser explained: “It’s a high-powered topic. Energy accounts for 8% of GDP and 10% of the S&P 500.” It’s not just oil and coal but fracking and wind. Solar and Hurricane Sandy. It’s a story about unexpected technology advances and indomitable entrepreneurs. In this report, we share the highlights of the day – the theses, observations, and conclusions – about the Energy Revolution’s long-term impact on portfolios, while supplementing with follow-on conversations, information and ideas for investing in the Energy Revolution today. The LAB Report is the second initiative of Uncorrelated LLC, an “Act Tank” that connects institutional investors and asset managers to collaborate on solving investment problems and brainstorming futuristic investment ideas. Uncorrelated aims to produce outcomes: practical and actionable information and insights for investors. For more information, please visit www.theuncorrelated. wordpress.com. Downloaded fromAll Rights www.hvst.com Reserved, Uncorrelated, by IP LLC address 2014, The 192.168.160.10 Investment Lab on 09/23/2021 3 The LAB Report Observations and Conclusions: Old World Sector, New World Opportunities The speakers were diverse – an investor in private equity; founders and CEOs of energy companies; big picture experts. Each had a different angle to profiting from the revolution in energy. Yet there were commonalities. Amid the revolution, they agreed on the three eternals of energy: The sector is cyclical, quality people are always in demand, and the business operates like a family barbecue – tightly knit circles referring businesses, buying and selling to one another. But there was also no doubt that the ground is shifting; the Energy Revolution is creating opportunities barely imaginable even five years ago. • A woeful shortage of talent at all levels and in LEARN: Key points the experts all areas. From the c-suite to the welder to the investment managers on Wall Street – there aren’t shared with the LAB participants enough individuals with energy expertise. • Energy as a growth stock. The technological breakthroughs are turning energy companies into • Renewables are here to stay and grabbing growth engines, not sleepy dividend payers solely important market share. Don’t count on oil prices dependent on rising commodity prices. falling and launching a new cycle. Solar has a sunny outlook, even without subsidies. • Everyone loves innovation, but don’t forget about • U.S. will dominate natural conventional oil & gas. Small, gas and become an exporter agile companies are snapping Formula for within the next five years. China up properties the majors can’t may have huge resources, but it be bothered with. The new “success: Rise doesn’t have a steady body of law wave of wildcatters is reviving early, work hard, that supports development. fields once deemed “don’t.” High tech innovations have turned strike oil. • Huge investment is needed the unattainable into the in infrastructure. From the - J. Paul Getty attainable. ” power grid – which will need $17 billion in capital alone – to clean • Transparency improving technologies and investment in profitability. An entire mini- exploration. industry of data collectors and analysis is prying information never before available, thanks in part • Coal will become the No. 1 fossil fuel as India and to environmentalists demanding that companies other developing countries expand. Oil will fall to document their activities. second place but maintain its special status as an efficient “miracle liquid” for many consumer and • Technical efficiencies mean more profits. Sensors industrial uses. and monitoring technology make the grid smarter, cheaper, and better. 4 Downloaded from www.hvst.comAll Rights Reserved, Uncorrelated, by IP address LLC 2014, 192.168.160.10 The Investment Lab on 09/23/2021 All Rights Reserved, Uncorrelated, LLC 2014, The Investment Lab properties like poker chips. Today, the majors APPLY and BRAINSTORM: are shedding small properties that New Wave Wildcatters are rejuvenating, thanks to the high Investment ideas generated by the tech revolution. Unsexy, unloved – these are often LAB participants under-rated properties making their way through the disaggregation/aggregation cycle that is energy. The LAB participants spent the afternoon wrestling with how to take the information they had learned in • Consider derivative beneficiaries of shale. the morning to use in their portfolios – now and over The most obvious – services like infrastructure, the next 15, 20, even 30 years. How do you invest and transportation and companies that make pipes. assess your total exposure to energy? What are the best Real estate is another – hotels, residential, sectors within energy? There was a buzz in every corner shopping centers. The population of Williston, as the discussions unfolded. There was also a consensus N.D., has doubled since 2010, and rents are now that when considering the new, take heed of the classic the highest in the nation – all thanks to the shale oil market bromides: Don’t overlook the unloved sectors, boom. value investing remains a cornerstone principle. And even with all the new technology that was turning • Also consider tertiary beneficiaries. Fracking America from an energy beggar into an energy tycoon, needs guar as a thickening agent. Energy companies the sector remains cyclical. Political, environmental, are fanatical about drug testing and are embarking and social risks are also part of the mix, but given the on a hiring spree. Look for ways to invest in these demand for energy and the unique position the U.S. less obvious winners. commands, the risks are well worth taking. In fact, the biggest risk may be sitting out the revolution. • The Internet of Energy. It took Silicon Valley time to make its way to the world of fossil fuels and The conversation bounced between themes and renewables, but now it is an indispensable part practical concerns: What are the best ways to take of the energy story. Software is enabling greater advantage of the energy boom both domestically and efficiencies in finding and identifying drilling around the world? Themes are hard to implement, locations, sensors tracking energy usage are noted one investor, who emphasized, as did many, reducing costs, and greater availability of data the need for quality managers with vision and skill. is creating a boomlet among those who collect, Depending on the mandate of the fund and the size and analyze, and advise on how to use the information. taste for risk, the investors latched on to the following More innovations are likely. key ideas for further discussion: • Frontier markets are likely to reap huge benefits • Only the beginning. Some investors came to the from abundant, cheaper energy. Cheap energy can workshop with one concern: Had they already transform societies. Under-developed countries missed their chance to take advantage of the shale trying to bootstrap their economies will get a huge revolution? So much money had already flooded lift from the Energy Revolution. the market. The answer: No. The demand for capital is so vast that entry points abound. Some numbers: • Invest across the capital structure in both public One federal agency expects demand for electricity and private vehicles. The investors debated to grow by 40 terawatt-hours in the next 20 years. vigorously whether private or public venues were And that’s just in the United States. Meanwhile, best, with the consensus leaning toward private exploration of shale deposits in the U.S. is still in its structures, believing that approach would help infancy.
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