Numbat Myrmecobius Fasciatus

Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Numbat Myrmecobius fasciatus

Key Findings Numbats were once widespread across mainland Australia but declined to only ~300 individuals in WA by the late 1970s, primarily due to predation by foxes and habitat loss, as well as predation by feral cats, and frequent and intense fires. Long term control of introduced predators and careful fire management increased populations, enabling translocations to other sites to re-establish Numbats in parts of their former range, firstly in WA and more recently in SA and NSW. These intensive and long-term recovery efforts have increased the total population to over 1300 individuals. Photo: Alexander Dudley Significant trajectory change from 2005-15 to 2015-18? Yes, rate of increase has improved.

Priority future actions

• Maintain existing fenced populations and develop plan for metapopulation management. • Intensify feral cat control at all established populations (outside of fences). • Establish further populations across range.

Full assessment information

Background information 2018 population trajectory assessment

1. Conservation status and taxonomy 8. Expert elicitation for population trends 2. Conservation history and prospects 9. Immediate priorities from 2019 3. Past and current trends 10. Contributors 4. Key threats 11. Legislative documents 5. Past and current management 12. References 6. Support from the Australian Government 13. Citation 7. Measuring progress towards conservation

The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against the year three targets outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, including estimating the change in population trajectory of 20 mammal species. It has been prepared by experts from the National Environmental Science Program’s Threatened Species Recovery Hub, with input from a number of taxon experts, a range of stakeholders and staff from the Office of the Threatened Species Commissioner, for the information of the Australian Government and is non-statutory. It has been informed by statutory planning documents that guide recovery of the species, such as Recovery Plans and/or Conservation Advices (see Section 11). The descriptive information in the scorecard is drawn from the summaries of (Woinarski et al. 2014; Woinarski and Burbidge 2016; Department of Parks and Wildlife 2017; TSSC 2018) and references therein, unless otherwise noted by additional citations.

The background information aims to provide context for estimation of progress in research and management (Section 7) and estimation of population size and trajectories (Section 8).

1 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

1. Conservation status and taxonomy

Conservation status 2018 Taxonomy: No subspecies are recognised. The Numbat is the sole IUCN Endangered member of the family Myrmecobiidae. EPBC Endangered

NSW Extinct

NT Extinct

SA Endangered

WA Endangered

2. Conservation history and prospects Numbats are diurnal termite-eaters. They find sub-surface termite galleries by smell and dig their prey out with their front feet. An adult Numbat eats around 15,000-20,000 termites every day, and shelters overnight in hollow logs, tree hollows and burrows. The pre-European distribution of the Numbat stretched over much of southern arid and semi-arid Australia, reaching into the southern part of the Northern Territory, extending east to north-west Victoria and western New South Wales, and west to south-west Western Australia. They previously occupied a variety of vegetation types, from spinifex deserts to tall eucalypt forests. Numbats had disappeared from most of this distribution by the 1970s, persisting only in six known subpopulations in south-west Western Australia (northern jarrah forest and Swan coastal plain, Dryandra Woodland near Narrogin, Boyagin Nature Reserve near Brookton, Tutanning Nature Reserve near Pingelly, bushland south of Hyden and Upper Warren). By the mid-1980s, only two of these subpopulations persisted, at Dryandra and Upper Warren. Fox control at Dryandra commencing in the early 1980s resulted in a rapid increase in Numbat numbers. In the Upper Warren, widespread fox control under the Western Shield program from 1996 was followed by a significant increase in the local range of the species. Numbats were reintroduced to several sites in south-western Australia: (Boyagin Nature Reserve (reintroduced 1985), Batalling State Forest (1992), Tutanning Nature Reserve (1989), Dragon Rocks Nature Reserve (1995), Dale Conservation Park (1996), Stirling Range National Park (1998), Cocanarup Timber Reserve (2006), with the last three reintroductions ultimately unsuccessful). Numbats have also been reintroduced to five mainland fenced areas from which cats and foxes are excluded, with two of those reintroductions proving successful (Yookamurra in South Australia, Scotia in western New South Wales) and a third recent reintroduction to Mt Gibson (Western Australia) which is still establishing; translocations to Karakamia and Arid Recovery were unsuccessful, although the latter site received only five animals in a trial. Fenced exclosures have also been constructed around resident Numbats at Upper Warren (Perup Sanctuary) and Dryandra Woodland (Dryandra Sanctuary). Captive breeding at the WA Wildlife

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Research Centre between 1984 and 1992, then Perth Zoo (1993-now) has provided Numbats for several of these translocations and supplementation of existing populations. New fenced exclosures that may house Numbats in the future include Matuwa-Lorna Glen (WA), Newhaven (NT) and Mallee Cliffs, although the latter two sites are on the edge of the Numbat’s previous distribution. Such reintroductions will be contingent, in part, on the availability of Numbats for translocation.

3. Past and current trends From an extensive pre-European distribution that stretched from the west coast of WA through to western NSW and north-west Victoria, the Numbat had declined to about 300 individuals by the late 1970s, spread between six known areas in southwest WA (northern jarrah forest and Swan coastal plain, Dryandra Woodland near Narrogin, Boyagin Nature Reserve near Brookton, Tutanning Nature Reserve near Pingelly, bushland south of Hyden, Upper Warren). By the late 1980s, Numbats persisted at only two of these areas, Dryandra and Perup.

Fox control in Dryandra in the mid-1980s resulted in a rapid increase in the Numbat population. Numbers continued to increase until the early 1990s (to about 600), but then declined again to around 50 in 2007. Research carried out in 2011−12 showed that feral cats had become the main predator. Cat control was instigated, and Numbat numbers increased to around 80 by 2015; the Numbat population has been stable, or possibly increasing since then. The Perup Numbat population also increased and expanded into other parts of the Upper Warren following instigation of fox control, which began in the 1970s. Although monitoring data are few and patchy, available evidence (sighting records) suggests the population is stable.

Translocations were carried out from the mid-1980s to establish Numbats in parts of their previous range. These translocations have had mixed success:

• translocations to Karroun Hill Nature Reserve (1986) and Dale Conservation Park (1996) failed • translocations to Stirling Range (1998) and Cocanarup (2006) were initially successful, but have since failed • translocations to Tutanning (1989) and Dragon Rocks (1995) were initially successful, but populations are currently at low numbers • translocations to Boyagin (1985) and Batalling (1992) have resulted in self-sustaining populations

Additional translocations, into fenced exclosures, have also occurred with mixed success, including to eastern parts of the Numbat’s pre-European distribution:

• translocations to Karakamia Sanctuary (WA; 1994) and Arid Recovery (SA; 2005) failed • translocations to Yookamurra (SA; 1993) and Scotia Sanctuary (NSW; 1999) have resulted in self- sustaining populations • Numbats are currently being reintroduced to Mt Gibson Sanctuary (WA; 2016)

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Fenced areas have been constructed at Perup in the Upper Warren (2010) and Dryandra Woodland (2017), enclosing resident Numbats. At Dryandra Sanctuary, the fenced population has been augmented.

Several Numbats were taken into captivity in 1984 and housed at the Department of Fisheries and Wildlife’s Western Australian Wildlife Research Centre, where captive breeding was first achieved. Some of these animals were later transferred to Perth Zoo (1986), which has maintained a captive colony since, and since 1993 has supplied many Numbats for reintroductions.

Overall, from a low point in the 1970s-80s, Numbats increased as a result of fox control and translocations, but the total population began declining again from the 1990s and 2000s. By 2015, the population numbered about 1000 individuals, and has remained stable or increased.

Monitoring (existing programs): Numbats occur at low densities. They do not enter traps and are usually monitored by sighting surveys from vehicles along transects, sign (diggings and scats) surveys or, in suitable soil types, by track counts.

The Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions undertakes monitoring of Numbat populations on Crown land in WA. Sites include Dryandra Woodland, the Upper Warren area, Boyagin Nature Reserve, Tutanning Nature Reserve, the Batalling area, and Dragon Rocks Nature Reserve. Survey methods include driven surveys at Dryandra and Upper Warren (Tone-Perup, Kingston), sign surveys at Boyagin, Batalling and Upper Warren and camera monitoring at Dryandra, Boyagin, Tutanning and Upper Warren; some surveys are undertaken by DBCA, others by PhD students, community group Project Numbat and volunteers.

Australian Wildlife Conservancy monitor Numbats at Yookamurra and Scotia annually using sighting surveys along strip transects. Sandplot surveys were also used in the past (2002-2013) at Scotia.

Population trends: Tables 1 and 2 summarise the overall trend and status of the Numbat. The information provided in these tables is derived from the recovery plan and conservation advices with some amendments made by contributing experts based on new information.

4 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Table 1. Summary of the available information on Numbat distribution and population size, and (where possible) trend estimates between 2015 and 2018 for each parameter.

Confidence in Population parameters Published baseline 2015 Estimate 2018 Estimate estimates

WILD* (unfenced pus free-living fenced)

578,282 km2

Extent of Occurrence 578,282km2 578,282km2 Addition of Mt Gibson High makes negligle difference to EoO

Area of Occupancy 864 km2 864 km2 954 km2 High

Dates of records and TSSC 2018 (add Mt Gibson in 2018) methods used

No. mature individuals c. 1100 960 1365 Medium

No. of subpopulations 8 8 9 High

No. of locations 8 8 9 High

High (as per Generation time 2 n/a n/a MAP)

EXCLOSURES/ISLANDS (subset of the total population above)

No. mature individuals 460 305 750 High

No. locations 3 4 5 High

CAPTIVE BREEDING

No. mature individuals n/a 11 14 High

No. locations n/a 1 1 (Perth Zoo) High

*Including translocations

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Table 2. Estimated recent (2005-2015) and current (2015-2018) population trends for the Numbat.

Est. % of Confidence Confidence Est. % total 2005- 2015- Sub- in in of total pop’n 2015 2018 Details 2005-2015 2015-2018 pop’n population (pre- trend trend trend trend (2018) 2015)

High numbers in the 1950s, dropped to low levels in the late 1970s. Following fox control in early 1980s, Numbats increased, peaking in 1992.

Estimated maximum 80 adults in 2016 (TSSC 2018; T. Friend, pers. comm.). DPaW (2018) reports 50-100 adults. DPaW (2017) notes decline between 2012-17; TSSC (2018) notes declining over past 20 years, but recently stabilised with recent increase. DBCA (T. Friend, Dryandra pers comm.) reports declining trend over the last decade 7 High Medium 5 Woodland but recently stabilised, and possibly even increasing. Here, assume population of 80 in 2015; declining trend pre-2015 but stable during 2015-18.

[8-34 Numbats were removed per year from 1985-c.1993 for translocations; dropped to 0-9 animals removed per year from 1999. Between 2014 and 2017, 38 Numbats from Perth Zoo were released at Dryandra for population reinforcement.]

Population estimate around 200-500 (TSSC 2018; T. Friend pers. comm.); or > 100 (DPaW 2017). TSSC 2018 Upper notes “stable or possibly increasing over last 10 years”. Warren 32 High Low 26 DPaW (2017) notes stable since 2012; DBCA notes (including “presumed stable over past 10 years” (T. Friend, pers. Perup) comm). Here, assume population of 350, and stable since 2005.

35 animals released 1985-87 from Dryandra. Top up for genetic augmentation of 2 Numbats in 2005, 1 in 2010, and 1 in 2013, all from Perth Zoo. Boyagin has been the source of some breeding stock for Perth Zoo.

Estimated 50-70 adults (TSSC 2018), or 50-100 (DPaW Boyagin* 6 Medium Medium 5 2017). TSSC 2018 has no comment on trend 2005-2015. DBCA (pers. comm. 2018) notes ‘stable since 2005’; DPaW notes stable between 2012-17.

Here, assume 60 adults in 2015, and stable since 2005, and between 2015-18.

60 animals released 1992-96 from Dryandra (46) and Perth Zoo (14). Top ups for genetic augmentation of 4 Numbats in 2005, 4 in 2010, and 9 in 2013, all from Perth Zoo.

Estimated 50-100 adults (DPaW 2017; TSSC 2018; T. Batalling* 6 Medium Medium 5 Friend pers. comm.). Stable 2012-17 (DPaW 2017); stable since 2005 (T. Friend, pers. comm.); declining over last 10 years (TSSC 2018)

Note conflicting information on trend.

Here, assume 75 adults, and stable since 2005.

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Sub-population Est. % of 2005- Confidence 2015- Confidence Est. % of Details total 2015 in 2018 in total pop’n trend 2005-2015 trend 2015-2018 pop’n (pre-2015) trend trend (2018)

32 animals translocated 1990-96 from Dryandra (25), Karakamia (1), Perth Zoo (6). Top up of 3 animals in 2005 from Perth Zoo for genetic augmentation.

Tutanning* 2 High Medium 2 Estimated ~20 adults in 2018, and declining trend over last 10 years (TSSC 2018; T. Friend, pers. comm.). Estimate < 50 and a decline since 2012 (DPaW 2017).

Here, assume 40 animals in 2005, 30 in 2015; 20 in 2018.

37 animals translocated from Dryandra 1995-96.

Estimate a max of 30 adults currently, and a declining Dragon trend over past 10 years (TSSC 2018; T. Friend, pers. 3 High Medium 2 comm.). Estimate <50 animals with a declining trend Rocks* since 2012 (DPaW 2017).

Here, assume 80 animals in 2005; 50 animals in 2015; 30 animals in 2018.

88 animals released 1998-2005, from Dryandra (15), Yookamurra (8), Perth Zoo (65).

Stirling Still present in 2008, but no recent population estimates. ? Medium Medium ? There have been no recent confirmed records. May no Range* longer be extant.

Here, assume 20 animals in 2005; 10 animals in 2015; 0 animals in 2018.

52 animals released 2006-09 from Dryandra (13) and Perth Zoo (39).

Last recorded sighting is from 2013; may no longer be extant (TSSC 2018), or population status is unknown Cocanarup* <1 High n/a Low 0 (DPaW 2017).

Here, assume initial increase due to translocations, followed by a decrease to population extinction, between 2005-15. Assume population of 20 in 2005; 0 in 2015, and 0 in 2018.

Gone 97 animals released 1986-93, all from Dryandra. Present Karroun in 2000, but no records after that despite three sign by n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 Hill* surveys through previously occupied habitat. Fox control 2005 has been discontinued.

Gone 61 animals released 1996-98 from Dryandra (44), Boyagin Mt Dale* by n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 (2), Perth Zoo (15). Searches for diggings in 2003 and 2005 2009 were fruitless.

Fenced areas

Karakamia 6 animals released 1994-99, all from Dryandra. 3 animals Sanctuary, released 1994, 1 more in 1996, 2 more in 1999. n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 WA Not counted here, as sanctuary too small to support (fenced)* Numbat population.

Arid 5 animals translocated from Scotia in a trial in 2005; Recovery, SA n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 extirpated within 2-3 years. * Not counted here, as this was a trial translocation.

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Sub-population Est. % of 2005- Confidence 2015- Confidence Est. % of Details total 2015 in 2018 in total pop’n trend 2005-2015 trend 2015-2018 pop’n (pre-2015) trend trend (2018)

Original translocation carried out by Earth Sanctuaries Ltd in 1993 (15 animals from Dryandra). Fence upgraded by AWC in 2007. Population estimates range between 30 Yookamurra – 80 since 2010, currently c. 50. (AWC pers. comm.). Sanctuary, 4 High High 3 DPaW (2017) notes population of < 50 and not declining; SA (fenced)* TSSC (2018) notes stable population of > 30-60 (based on input from AWC).

Here, assume 50 in 2005, 2015, and 2018.

Original translocation carried out by Earth Sanctuaries Ltd in 1999 (19 animals from Yookamurra) and 2000 (24 animals from Yookamurra). Fence rebuilt in 2004. Self- introduced into Stage 2 fenced area at Scotia from 2008, with top-up translocations from Stage 1 (2009) and 2011 (total of 10 animals); from Perth Zoo (12) and Dryandra (1) in 2011; and Perth Zoo (17 animals) in 2012. Mortality in the releases from Perth Zoo was high (Hayward et al. 2015).

2006; 50-70 individuals (Vieira et al. 2007). Scotia 2014: 169 individuals (89 in Stage 1; 80 in Stage 2) (AWC Sanctuary, 39 High High 51 cited in DPaW 2017) NSW 2018 (targeted survey) = estimated population of 629 (fenced)* (+/- 103 SE). Increasing trend, partly because of expansion into second compartment of fenced area from 2009. Recent population estimates: 2014: 169; 2015: 242; 2016: 415; 2017: 629. (AWC, pers. comm.)

DPaW (2017) notes population of > 100 and not declining; TSSC (2018) notes population of > 400 and increasing (based on input from AWC).

Here, use 60 in 2005; 240 in 2015; and 629 in 2017, but note there has been some method change over this period.

Total of 52 animals translocated to Mt Gibson since 2016 (15 from Scotia and 14 from captive breeding program at Perth Zoo in 2016; 19 from Perth Zoo and 4 from Yookamurra in 2017; additional translocations from Mt Gibson Scotia and Perth Zoo planned for 2018). (AWC pers. Sanctuary, comm.) 0 n/a n/a High 1 WA Too early to declare the reintroduction a success, but (fenced)* signs are promising, with evidence of breeding, and Numbats encountered across most of the 7800 ha enclosure.

Here, assume 0 in 2015, and 50 in 2018.

Around 5 animals resident within new fenced exclosure Dryandra early 2017; 4 additional animals were translocated into Sanctuary, the fence in late 2017. Too early to discern success. 0 n/a n/a Medium <1 WA Assume 5 in 2015, and 10 in 2018. (fenced)*

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Sub-population Est. % of 2005- Confidence 2015- Confidence Est. % of Details total 2015 in 2018 in total pop’n trend 2005-2015 trend 2015-2018 pop’n (pre-2015) trend trend (2018)

Perup Several were resident when fence was built in 2010. Sanctuary, <1 Medium Medium <1 WA Assume 10 in 2015, and 10 in 2018. Also assume 10 in 2005, albeit unfenced. (fenced)*

Overall, in the unfenced population, estimate 745 in 2005 (8 sites); 655 in 2015 (7 sites); and 615 in 2018 (6 sites). The fenced population has grown from 110 in 2005 (2 Whole 100 Medium Medium 100 sites); to 305 in 2015 (4 sites); and 750 in 2018 (5 sites). population Thus, overall despite an ongoing decline in the unfenced population of Numbats, the trajectory is increasing, because of the contribution of the fenced populations.

*Reintroduced population KEY: Improving Stable Deteriorating Unknown Confidence Description High Trend documented Medium Trend considered likely based on documentation

? Low Trend suspected but evidence indirect or equivocal

4. Key threats The threats listed here are derived from the latest Conservation Advice (TSSC 2018) and the latest Recovery Plan (Department of Parks and Wildlife 2017). Note that this is not a list of all plausible threats, but a subset of the threats that are likely to have the largest impact on populations.

Predation by red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) The contraction of the Numbat’s range generally followed an east to west pattern and became more rapid when the distribution of the introduced fox expanded westward, following colonisation by rabbits from south-east Australia. Numbat numbers at Dryandra increased in the 1980s after implementation of a fox control program. All unfenced known (original and translocated) subpopulations are in WA, and are in areas subject to landscape scale fox control.

Predation by feral cats (Felis catus) The impact of feral cat predation on the long-term persistence of Numbat subpopulations is likely to be significant. Cats were identified as predators of Numbats in several translocation sites in WA.

Habitat loss and fragmentation Many vegetation remnants in the WA part of the Numbat’s original distribution are too small to support viable populations of Numbats. The Numbat currently occurs as a series of subpopulations in isolated vegetation remnants. While most are sufficiently large to maintain self-sustaining subpopulations, the maintenance of long-term genetic variability in existing and re-introduced subpopulations will rely on movement of animals between subpopulations. Raptors (including the Brown Goshawk Accipiter fasciatus, Brown Falcon Falco berigora, Little Eagle Hieraaetus morphnoides and Wedge-tailed Eagle

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Aquila audax) are natural predators, but numbers are often elevated in remnant vegetation where they can feed in adjacent agricultural lands.

Inappropriate fire regimes Loss of habitat cover and loss of shelter sites (e.g. hollow logs) due to fire may increase mortality of Numbats through increased exposure to predation; frequent and intense fires could therefore contribute to population decline. However, the impacts of fire appear to be site-specific. At Dryandra, fire intervals of 20-30 years are needed to allow Gastrolobium thickets to attain full development. Numbats feed almost exclusively on debris-feeding termites, which could also be affected by frequent and intense fires, although there are no data to support this. Numbats can be killed by fire, especially intense fire, but this impact is minor compared to the loss of cover and food.

The impacts of the major threats are summarised in Table 3.

Table 3. The major threats facing the Numbat and their associated impact scores.

CURRENT THREAT IMPACT Threat Timing Extent Severity

1. Predation by red foxes Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 50-100%

2. Feral cats Continuing/ongoing .90% of range 50-100%

3. Habitat loss and Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range Not negligible but <20% fragmentation 4. Increase in fire Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range Not negligible but <20% frequency/intensity

Timing: continuing/ongoing; near future: any occurrence probable within one generation (includes former threat no longer causing impact but could readily recur); distant future: any occurrence likely to be further than one generation into the future (includes former threat no longer causing impact and unlikely to recur). Extent: <1% of range; 1-50%; 50-90%; >90%. Severity: (within three generations or 10 years, whichever is longer) Causing no decline; Negligible declines (<1%); Not negligible but <20%; 20-29%; 30-49%; 50-100%; Causing/could cause order of magnitude fluctuations.

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5. Past and current management Recent and current management actions that support the conservation of Numbats are summarised in Table 4. The information is a collation of material provided by contributors. A Recovery Plan (2017) and Conservation Advice (2018) are in place, guiding recovery action (see Section 11). Table 4. Management actions that support the conservation of the Numbat.

Est. % Contributors and Action Location Timing pop’n partners

Crown land managed by DBCA (Dryandra Fox control (in open landscape) Woodland, Upper Warren, Boyagin NR, Ongoing 45 DBCA Tutanning NR, Batalling, Dragon Rocks NR).

Cat control

Ongoing research and trials of Dryandra Ongoing 5 DBCA cat control, and control programs with neighbours (Dryandra, Upper Warren).

Dryandra Sanctuary, Perup Sanctuary, Yookamurra, Scotia, Mt Gibson Sanctuary DBCA, Earth Fox and cat control (by fencing) (Future projects may include Mallee Cliffs, 1999-now 55 Sanctuaries Ltd, AWC, NSW; Newhaven NT; Matuwa-Lorna Glen, PZ WA)

Crown land managed by DBCA (Dryandra Managed prescribed fire Woodland, Upper Warren, Boyagin NR, Ongoing 45 DBCA Tutanning NR, Batalling, Dragon Rocks NR)

Many translocations to unfenced sites in Establish new populations SW WA since the mid ‘80s; populations Since 1980s DBCA persist at 2-4 sites

Establish new populations Two sites at any time Ongoing DBCA

AWC, NSW Proposal to reintroduce to Mallee Cliffs NP, Government, Establish new populations 2019-2022 Newhaven Sanctuary Australian Government

Survey genetics across sites to Murdoch Uni, DBCA, inform decisions on sources of 2018 Project Numbat stock for translocation

Captive breeding to contribute to population establishment Perth Zoo DBCA (Perth Zoo) nationally

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6. Actions undertaken or supported by the Australian Government resulting from inclusion in the Threatened Species Strategy

Several partnership projects aim to benefit the Numbat:

i. Applying best practice feral cat and fox baiting in WA ($1.7 million from the Australian Government). This support has contributed to protection for this species (and many others). ii. Optimising grooming traps for targeted feral cat control ($100,000 from the Australian Government). This project could result in a control technique that will benefit the Numbat, if used in appropriate circumstances. Field trials are being carried out, but the technology is not yet fully field-operational iii. Establishing a feral predator-free area at Newhaven Wildlife Sanctuary ($750,000 from the Australian Government). The fence is completed, with feral eradication underway; translocations may begin in 2019, but note that Newhaven is on the edge of the known previous distribution of this species, and that sourcing Numbats for translocation may be an issue given the number of competing projects. iv. The Numbat Protection Dog project will develop the use of cat detector dogs to protect the last remaining wild populations of Numbats and benefit other species. $150,000 was granted by the National Landcare Program to the Foundation for Australia’s Most Endangered Species Limited in 2016-17 for this project. v. Under the 20 Million Trees program, two habitat projects in the Avon River Basin that are likely to benefit the Numbat were funded in Round 2 and Round 3: a total of $200,000 was provided to Wheatbelt Natural Resource Management Incorporated for these two projects.

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7. Measuring progress towards conservation Table 5. Progress towards management understanding and management implementation for each of the major threats affecting the Numbat in 2015 and 2018, using the progress framework developed by Garnett et al. 2018.

PROGRESS IN MANAGING THREATS

Threat Year Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat being managed

6. Research complete and being applied OR 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but 2015 ongoing research associated with adaptive only with continued conservation 1. Red foxes Vulpes management of threat intervention vulpes 6. Research complete and being applied OR 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but 2018 ongoing research associated with adaptive only with continued conservation management of threat intervention 3.Solutions have been adopted but too early to demonstrate success (cat baiting) 4.Trial management is providing clear 2015 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but evidence that it can deliver objectives only with continued conservation intervention (fences) 2. Feral cats Felis catus 3.Solutions have been adopted but too early to demonstrate success (cat baiting) 4.Trial management is providing clear 2018 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but evidence that it can deliver objectives only with continued conservation intervention (fences) 1.Research being undertaken or completed 2015 but limited understanding on how to 0. No management 3. Habitat loss and manage threat fragmentation 2.Research has provided strong direction on 2018 0. No management how to manage threat 2. Research has provided strong direction 2015 0.No management 4. Increase in fire on how to manage threat frequency/intensity 2. Research has provided strong direction 2018 0.No management on how to manage threat > Green shading indicates an improvement in our understanding or management of threats between years 2015 and 2018, while red shading indicates deterioration in our understanding or management of threats.

KEY: Score Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat is being managed 0 No knowledge and no research No management Research being undertaken or completed but limited 1 Management limited to trials understanding on how to manage threat Research has provided strong direction on how to manage Work has been initiated to roll out solutions where threat 2 threat applies across the taxon’s range Solutions have been adopted but too early to demonstrate 3 Solutions being trialled but work only initiated recently success Trial management under way but not yet clear evidence that Solutions are enabling achievement but only with 4 it can deliver objectives continued conservation intervention Trial management is providing clear evidence that it can Good evidence available that solutions are enabling 5 deliver objectives achievement with little or no conservation intervention Research complete and being applied OR ongoing research 6 The threat no longer needs management associated with adaptive management of threat

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8. Expert elicitation for population trends An expert elicitation process was undertaken to assess population trends for the period 2005-2015 and post-2015 under the following management scenarios. Please note that differences between Management Scenarios 2 and 3 (Fig. 1) are difficult to attribute, as it can be difficult to determine whether actions undertaken after 2015 were influenced by the Threatened Species Strategy or were independent of it (see Summary Report for details of methods). Management Scenario 1 (red line): no conservation management undertaken since 2015, and no new actions implemented.

• No fox control • No feral cat control • No new fenced exclosures (i.e. Mt Gibson, Dryandra Sanctuary not constructed) • Existing fenced exclsoures (Scotia, Yookamurra) are not maintained • No fire management to reduce fire frequency and intensity • No research to underpin metapopuation management • No management to reduce firewood collection • No community engagement; project Numbat ceases Management Scenario 2 (blue line): continuation of existing conservation management (i.e. actions undertaken before implementation of the Threatened Species Strategy or independent of the Threatened Species Stategy).

• Landscape-scale fox control • Trial landscape-scale feral cat control • Two fenced exclosures established (Mt Gibson, Dryandra Sanctuary), and two more are under consideration (Mallee Cliffs, Newhaven) • Existing fenced exclsures (Scotia, Yookamurra) are maintained • Fire management focussed on reducing fuel loads while considering impacts to the species and habitat • Research on population genetics to underpin metapopuation management • Management to reduce firewood collection • Captive colonies maintained as insurance against extinction in the wild and as a source of animals for translocations • Maintain community involvement and education, by supporting Project Numbat and other community groups, and developing an education strategy to increase public awareness Management Scenario 3 (green line): continuation of existing management, augmented by support mobilised by the Australian Government under the Threatened Species Strategy.

• Landscape-scale fox control • Trial landscape-scale feral cat control • Two fenced exclosores established (Mt Gibson, Dryandra Sanctuary), and two more are under consideration (Mallee Cliffs, Newhaven) • Existing fenced exclsoures (Scotia, Yookamurra, Perup) are maintained

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• Fire management focussed on reducing fuel loads while considering the impacts on the species and habitat • Research on population genetics to underpin metapopuation management. • Management to reduce firewood collection • Captive colonies maintained as insurance against extinction in the wild and as a source of animals for translocations • Maintain community involvement and education, by supporting Project Numbat and other community groups, and developing an education strategy to increase public awareness

Overall estimated population trajectories subject to management scenarios considered The Numbat is currently being managed under Scenario 3 (green line).

Figure 1. Estimated relative percentage change in population under each of the management scenarios described above. Data derived from 7 expert assessments of Numbat expected response to management, using four-step elicitation and the IDEA protocol (Hemming et al. 2017), where experts are asked to provide best estimates, lowest and highest plausible estimates, and an associated level of confidence. The dashed line represents the baseline value (i.e. as at 2015, standardised to 100). Values above this line indicate a relative increase in population size, while values below this line indicate a relative decrease in population size. Shading indicates confidence bounds (i.e. the lowest and highest plausible estimates).

15 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Population size projections based on expert elicitation are extended here to 2025, 2035 and 2045 (i.e. 10, 20 and 30 years after the establishment of the Threatened Species Strategy) on the grounds that some priority conservation management actions may take many years to achieve substantial conservation outcomes. However, we note also that there will be greater uncertainty around estimates of population size into the more distant future because, for example, novel threats may affect the species, managers may develop new and more efficient conservation options, and the impacts of climate change may be challenging to predict.

Improved trajectory (Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 target): The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against achieving the year three targets outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, i.e. a demonstrated improved trajectory for at least half of the priority species (10 birds and 10 mammals). To assess this, we first use the expert-derived trend between 2005-15 (i.e. 10 years prior to implementation of the TSS) as a baseline for assessing whether there has been an improvement in trajectory in the time since implementation of the TSS (i.e. 2015-18). Table 6 below summarises this information, where negative values indicate a declining population, and positive values indicate an increasing population. We used Wilcoxon match-paired tests to compare trajectories for these two periods; a significant result (probability <0.05) indicates that there was a high concordance amongst experts that their trajectory estimates for 2005-15 were different to their estimates for 2015-18.

Table 6. A comparison of the relative annual percentage population change for the periods 2005-2015 and 2015-2018.

Post-TSS Year 3 Pre-TSS trend Significant concordance among trend target (2005-2015) elicitors? (2015-2018) met? Annual Elicitors consistently concluded that the rate of percentage 1.15 11.72 increase from 2015-18 exceeded that in the population  period 2005-15 change

Additional actions that could improve trajectory The potential impact of carrying out specific additional conservation measures on the population trajectory of the Numbat was also evaluated through expert elicitation. Additional actions that could further improve the population trajectory of the Numbat include: • Landscape-scale fox and cat control; maintain intensity of control in areas with very small Numbat populations (Dragon Rocks, Tutanning); and at sites slated for more reintroductions (e.g. Stirling Ranges, northern jarrah forest) • Identify at least two more sites for future translocation; undertake feral predator control and fire management to prepare sites

16 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

• Two fenced exclosures established (Mt Gibson, Dryandra Sanctuary), and two more are under consideration (Mallee Cliffs, Newhaven), bringing total number of fenced sites potentially to seven • Existing fenced exclosures (Scotia, Yookamurra, Perup) are maintained • Fire management reduces fire frequency and intensity • Research on population genetics translated into metapopuation management. • Management to reduce firewood collection continues • Where possible, improve habitat connectivity between Numbat populations • Captive colonies maintained as insurance against extinction in the wild and as a source of animals for translocations • Undertake research to improve the survival of captive-bred Numbats during translocations • Develop and implement enhanced monitoring at all populations • Maintain community involvement and education, by supporting Project Numbat and other community groups, and developing an education strategy to increase public awareness.

9. Immediate priorities from 2019 The priorities listed here are derived from the most recent Conservation Advice and Recovery Plan, with modest amendments made by contributing experts. Identification of these priorities in this document is for information and is non-statutory. For statutory conservation planning documents, such as Recovery Plans or Conservation Advices, please see Section 11.

Data collection: • Develop and implement better survey techniques at all populations, including to measure impacts of management. Management actions: • Develop plan for metapopulation management. • Intensify feral cat control at all established populations (outside of fences) • Maintain fenced populations at Mt Gibson, Scotia, Yookamurra, Perup Sanctuary, Dryandra Sanctuary • Establish further populations across range (preferably in areas with broadscale feral cat and fox control)

10. Contributors Sarah Legge, John Woinarski, Stephen Garnett, Hayley Geyle (NESP TSR); Tony Friend, Adrian Wayne, Manda Page (WA DBCA); David Roshier, John Kanowski (AWC); Andrew Burbidge; Peter Menkhorst; Nicholas MacGregor.

17 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

11. Legislative documents SPRAT profile: http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=294 Threatened Species Scientific Committee (2018). Conservation Advice Myrmecobius fasciatus Numbat. Canberra: Department of the Environment and Energy. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/pubs/294-conservation- advice-15022018.pdf. In effect under the EPBC Act from 15-Feb-2018 Department of Parks and Wildlife (2017). Numbat (Myrmecobius fasciatus) Recovery Plan. Wildlife Management Program No. 60. Prepared by J.A. Friend and M.J. Page, Department of Parks and Wildlife, Perth, WA. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/publications/recovery/myrmecobiu s-fasciatus-recovery-plan. In effect under the EPBC Act from 16-Aug-2017

12. References Department of Parks and Wildlife (2017). Numbat (Myrmecobius fasciatus) Recovery Plan. Wildlife Management Program No. 60. Prepared by J.A. Friend and M.J. Page. (Ed. D. o. P. a. Wildlife): Perth, WA.) Garnett, S.T., Butchart, S.H.M., Baker, G.B., Bayraktarov, E., Buchanan, K.L., Burbidge, A.A., Chauvenet, A.L.M., Christidis, L., Ehmke, G., Grace, M., Hoccom, D.G., Legge, S.M., Leiper, I., Lindenmayer, D.B., Loyn, R.H., Maron, M., McDonald, P., Menkhorst, P., Possingham, H.P., Radford, J., Reside, A.E., Watson, D.M., Watson, J.E.M., Wintle, B., Woinarski, J.C.Z., and Geyle, H.M. (2018) Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian Birds. Conservation Biology https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13220. Hayward, M. W., Poh, A., Cathcart, J., Churcher, C., Bentley, J., Herman, K., Kemp, L., Riessen, N., Scully, P., Diong, C. H., Legge, S., Carter, A., Gibb, H., and Friend, J. (2015). Numbat nirvana: conservation ecology of the endangered Numbat (Myrmecobius fasciatus) (Marsupialia: Myrmecobiidae) reintroduced to Scotia and Yookamurra Sanctuaries, Australia. Australian Journal of Zoology 63, 258-269. Hemming, V., Burgman, M.A., Hanea, A.M., McBride, M.F., and Wintle B.C. (2017) A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9, 169- 180. TSSC (2018). Conservation Adice Myrmecobius fasciatus Numbat. (Ed. D. o. t. E. a. Energy). (Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra.) Vieira, E., Finlayson, G., and Dickman, C. (2007). Habitat use and density of Numbats (Myrmecobius fasciatus) reintroduced into an area of mallee vegetation, New South Wales. Australian Mammalagy 29, 17-24. Woinarski, J. C. Z. and Burbidge, A. A. (2016). Myrmecobius fasciatus. http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2016-2.RLTS.T14222A21949380.en. Woinarski, J. C. Z., Burbidge, A. A., and Harrison, P. L. (2014). 'The Action Plan for Australian Mammals 2012.' (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne.)

18 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

13. Citation Please cite this document as:

National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Research Hub (2019) Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 Scorecard – Numbat. Australian Government, Canberra. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/20-mammals-by- 2020/numbat

19 Information current to December 2018