DOCSLIB.ORG

Weekly Column” for November 2, 2020 1

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Weekly Column” for November 2, 2020 1 Section by Section Briefs November 2, 2020 OPENING: The Bear Growls Are we entering a Bear market or will seasonality win out? We are leaning towards the former The SCORECARD: Broken Ranges NDX and SPX trending lower. Biden Bump continues as Mids, small gain on S&P and Asian Markets gain steam WEEKLY RISK MANAGEMENT: Big Reversal in Risk Watching the VXST for a reversal and will help confirm if we are sitting in a bull or bear market. COLUMN EARNINGS: ERT Reversing Down from Column E Advisors A downward trending ERT has not been a support for rising stocks historically. The ERT is set to rollover this week. A Weekly Newsletter from the COMMODITIES & PRICES: Falling research department at Column Commodities E Advisors Crude products are falling, Gold is languishing but Natural gas is driving higher. Ultimately it comes down to the CRB and the signals are not good. RATES AND MONEY: Tight Money, higher yields and trouble? The jump in long bond yields has been a long time coming from a chart perspective. However, is this from a fall on money momentum? What are the follow on effects? PORTFOLIO UPDATE: Oversold? Over the past week, several stocks dropped into short term downtrends but we suspect that too many of them did. In August, there was the polar opposite effect with too many buys. CHART QUICK HITS - Industrial Metals over S&P’s - Bitcoin breakout continues - Euro turn lower, discretionary stocks lagging and more COLUMN E ADVISORS “WEEKLY COLUMN” FOR NOVEMBER 2, 2020 1 Leading Off The Bear Growls? by Brendan McCarty On Twitter last week, I posited that the current trading of the S&P 500 was much like what occurred in 2018 – an analysis we also posted in this opening last week. One Twitter user immediately said I was wrong, and when I asked why, like most on Twitter, this user would not answer (maybe watching their long positions melt after the Tweet?). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 cascaded, breaking through the critical 3300 level midweek. However, on the close Friday, the S&P ripped higher from 3230 to 3270 (month end shenanigans and squaring), and this morning is trying to regain that level once again. Overall, the action led to ripples through the market, and the bear was herd growling. Indications that a potential bear market is developing was first visible through our Growth model, which we showed last week was trending lower. It had broken a key range and this week broke a similarly important moving average. Also, the NT Model, our primary trend indicator for the markets, fell below the zero line, which typically argues that a larger downtrend is now in play. However, it is still holding above the key moving average, supporting the bullish trend. Lastly, our stock models, which we shared in full detail on Wednesday in our “Just Stocks” note, are either oversold or pointing to a much larger dip for the largest names in the economy. Our short term rating and long term ratings on the sample both worsened. However, if one were to be a contrarian, as we will explain lower, the current range level is the polar opposite of what we saw at the end of August, before the selloff in stocks in September. Could that be the reason we are above 3300 early this morning? There are positives, however! In the open and the risk section last week, we mentioned that our complacency model at this time of the year is typically a momentum indicator. If it is sitting at an extreme, it tends to support the argument that the trend will continue that way into year-end. The prior week, the indicator was mildly overbought. This dynamic historically sets up a year-end rally as a result. With that said, as we wrote about the fall of 2018, the market was very COLUMN E ADVISORS “WEEKLY COLUMN” FOR NOVEMBER 2, 2020 2 complacent as the buyers fought every dip through November, only to dump them all as Decembers bounce would not materialize. But last week, the overbought market rapidly moved away from this stance and towards oversold. Complacency did an about-face, as investors dumped stocks now vs. waiting till December! The last time our Complacency Model shifted this aggressively was in September when the S&P 500 hit 3331 on 9/8. The market would stabilize that week, see a good bounce before submitting to lower prices ten days later and bottoming on 9/24. Before September, this model also similarly shifted gears on 6/11 – when the S&P 500 hit 3002. The market would bounce higher, and the S&P 500 has not seen that level since! While this all supports the bulls, the last data point will not. The last time the Complacency Model shifted like this was before the lockdowns in February when the S&P had hit 3116 on 2/26. The S&P 500, in typical bear market fashion, continued lower, ignoring the signal, and the selling accelerated in March. Reviewing similarly aggressive moves since 2000, 21 have occurred in either October or November. On average, the return that followed over the next two months was 4.5%. This supports the seasonality and the momentum we have shown of rising stock prices through year-end. As a result, if the bounce follows, as this signal argues, the S&P 500, following historical returns, would finish at 3440 by year end. But is this the end of the story? No. If you recall, we have written in the past that in 2000 and 2007, the markets rolled over in the fall, indicating a bear market trend was at hand (2016 did not materialize like we thought it could). In 2000, there was a jump in panic as The Growth model has broken October ended (and that testy election through 13 month MA carried into 2001). In 2007, panic rose into the end of October as well and crescendoed in mid-November. In late 2014, before the downturn in 2015, panic rose once again though stocks just moved in a tight range for nearly two years while this downside signal subsided and then reversed higher at the end of 2016. In all three cases, panic sets the stage for a bear market turn at this time of the year. Is 2020 another example? In 2000 and 2007, the NT Model and Growth model were already turning lower, in absolute turns (ie positive or negative) and versus their key moving averages. In 2014, both the NT and Growth models were trailing key moving averages lower but were still on an absolute basis, positive as these panic signs arrived. Now, in 2020, the picture is a bit messy. The Growth model is trending glower, but the NT is holding. The Growth model is positive, but the NT model is negative. Thus a result of a mixed long-term picture against oversold short-term measures. So which way are stocks going? We are watching and see how the market handles today’s panic and how the NT and Growth respond over the next few weeks. 2000 and 2007 both had weak finishes to the year (7.6% in 2000, 5.1% in 2007), which pushed both lower. 2014 kept on climbing, and the bear never COLUMN E ADVISORS “WEEKLY COLUMN” FOR NOVEMBER 2, 2020 3 arrived. A bounce in the equity markets, similar to June and September (both triggered by the aggressive move in the Complacency model), confirms the bull market is still in place, and a run into year-end is on the table. If the bounce does not materialize out of this signal, however, then the bear market is probably here, pending confirmation from the NT and Growth models. THE MARKET SCORECARD Broken Ranges The last few months for the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), has been a tale of two cities. For the SPX, this index has been bouncing around through key pivots, whether 3300, 3390, or 3500, providing some clues on where the market is going. However, the NDX, has rejected the same 12,000 level repeatedly while finding buyers under 11,000, 11,500, and everywhere in between. What has resulted is wider ranges for the S&P and a consolidating one for the NDX. Is this just a representation of the buyers continuing to buy the winners and selling more in the SPX, which creates a tighter range in one and a broader range in the other? Possible. While the SPX topped at 3600 in August and the NDX around 12,000, the drop of late has continued to use this playbook as the NDX holds support, and the SPX gives ground. This past week, the NDX finally fell lower on the back of the large-cap growth names saw major shifts in their direction – we detail some of those changes in our stock sample further down. But even with this selling, the NDX still did not break key supports, while the S&P lost 3300. The SPX has been holding firm to a rising uptrend since the summer between 3300/3700, with the lower end holding several times and 3390 also providing support. Last week both gave out as selling, and risk control measures sent the SPX down to 3200 on Friday morning. However, with the support in the NDX, the buyers poured into the S&P 500 late on Friday, and that has continued this morning over 3300 once again as the futures have rolled higher in early trade. Clouding this picture is the election that comes tomorrow.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Integrating Neurally Enhanced Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis and Corporate Governance in the Context of a Stock Market Trading System
    Fusion Analysis: Integrating Neurally Enhanced Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis and Corporate Governance in the Context of a Stock Market Trading System Safwan Mohd Nor DiA (UiTM), BA (Hons) AFS (UCLan), MFA (LTU), CFTP Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Finance and Financial Services Discipline Group College of Business Victoria University, Melbourne 2014 Abstract This thesis examines the trading performance of a novel fusion strategy that amalgamates neurally enhanced financial statement analysis (traditional fundamental analysis), corporate governance analysis (new fundamental research) and technical analysis in the context of a full-fledged stock market trading system. In doing so, we build and investigate the trading ability of five mechanical trading systems: (1) (traditional) fundamental analysis; (2) corporate governance analysis; (3) technical analysis; (4) classical fusion analysis (a hybrid of only fundamental and technical rules) and (5) novel fusion analysis (a hybrid of fundamental, corporate governance and technical rules) in an emerging stock market, the Bursa Malaysia. To construct the full-fledged trading systems, we employ a backpropagation algorithm in enhancing buy/sell rules, and also include anti-Martingale (position sizing) and stop loss (risk management) strategies. In providing valid empirical results, we compare the trading performance of each trading system using out-of-sample analysis in the presence of a realistic budget, sample portfolio, short selling restriction, round lot constraint and transaction cost. The effects of data snooping, survivorship and look-ahead biases are also addressed and mitigated. The results show that all the trading systems produce significant returns and are able to outperform the benchmark buy-and-hold strategy.
    [Show full text]
  • Quantshare.Pdf
    QuantShare Table of contents 1. QuantShare 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Application 1.2.1 Using the software 1.2.2 Docking windows 1.2.3 Toolbars 1.2.4 Workspaces 1.2.5 Events 1.2.6 Scripting 1.2.7 Intraday Settings 1.3 Charting 1.3.1 Charts 1.3.2 Layouts 1.3.3 Templates 1.3.4 Drawing tools 1.3.5 Auto drawing tools 1.4 Symbols 1.4.1 Symbols 1.4.2 Symbols Selection 1.4.3 Symbols by Industry/Sector 1.5 Data 1.5.1 Databases 1.5.2 Application Objects 1.5.3 Metastock Plug-In 1.6 QuantShare Language 1.6.1 QuantShare Language 1.6.2 Composite Function 1.6.3 Advanced Rules 1.6.4 Profile Graphs 1.6.5 Auto Support/Resistance 1.7 Real-Time 1.7.1 Real-Time Features 1.7.2 DDE Connections 1.7.3 Real-Time Grids 1.8 Plug-ins 1.8.1 Indicators 1.8.2 Custom Functions 1.8.3 Custom Drawing Tools 1.8.4 Composite 1.8.5 Watch List 1 QuantShare | http://www.quantshare.com 1.8.6 Alerts Tool 1.8.7 Script Manager 1.8.8 Widget Panel 1.8.9 Sharing Server 1.8.10 Notes 1.8.11 Divers 1.8.12 Replay Tool 1.8.13 Data 1.8.13.1 Downloading Data 1.8.13.2 ASCII Importer 1.8.13.3 Downloader 1.8.13.4 Data Viewer 1.8.14 Analysis 1.8.14.1 Rules Manager 1.8.14.2 Ranking System Manager 1.8.14.3 Simulator 1.8.14.4 Monte Carlo Simulation 1.8.14.5 Advanced Money Management 1.8.14.6 Screener 1.8.14.7 Pivot Tables 1.8.14.8 Portfolio 1.8.15 Artificial Intelligence 1.8.15.1 Optimizer 1.8.15.2 Artificial Intelligence 1.8.16 External 1.8.16.1 Portfolio123 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Simulation Metrics 1.4.9.1 Simulation Metrics
    QuantShare Table of contents 1. Quantshare 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Tutorial 1.2.1 Application 1.2.1.1 Using the software 1.2.1.2 Docking windows 1.2.1.3 Toolbars 1.2.1.4 Layouts 1.2.1.5 Templates 1.2.1.6 Workspaces 1.2.1.7 Events 1.2.1.8 Scripting 1.2.2 Charting 1.2.2.1 Charts 1.2.2.2 Drawing tools 1.2.2.3 Auto drawing tools 1.2.3 Symbols 1.2.3.1 Symbols 1.2.3.2 Symbols Selection 1.2.4 Data 1.2.4.1 Databases 1.2.4.2 Application Objects 1.2.5 QuantShare Language 1.2.5.1 QuantShare Language 1.2.5.2 Advanced Rules 1.2.6 Plug-ins 1.2.6.1 Indicators 1.2.6.2 Custom functions 1.2.6.3 Composite 1.2.6.4 Watch list 1.2.6.5 Script Manager 1.2.6.6 Widget Panel 1.2.6.7 Sharing Server 1.2.6.8 Divers 1.2.6.9 Data 1.2.6.9.1 ASCII Importer 1.2.6.9.2 Downloader 1.2.6.9.3 Data Viewer 1.2.6.10 Analysis 1.2.6.10.1 Rules Manager 1.2.6.10.2 Ranking System Manager 1.2.6.10.3 Simulator 1.2.6.10.4 Advanced Money Management 1.2.6.10.5 Screener 1.2.6.11 Artificial Intelligence 1.2.6.11.1 Artificial Intelligence 1.2.6.11.2 Optimizer 1.2.6.12 External 1.2.6.12.1 Portfolio123 1.3 QuantShare Language 1.3.1 Date-Time 1.3.1.1 Year 1.3.1.2 Date 1.3.1.3 DateTicks 1.3.1.4 Day 1.3.1.5 DayOfWeek 1.3.1.6 DayOfYear 1.3.1.7 Hour 1.3.1.8 Interval 1.3.1.9 Minute 1.3.1.10 Month 1.3.1.11 NbDays 1.3.1.12 Now 1.3.1.13 Second 1.3.1.14 TimeTicks 1.3.1.15 Week 1.3.2 Application Info 1.3.2.1 NbGroups 1.3.2.2 NbIndexes 1.3.2.3 NbIndustries 1.3.2.4 NbInGroup 1.3.2.5 NbInIndex 1.3.2.6 NbInIndustry 1.3.2.7 NbInMarket 1.3.2.8 NbInSector 1.3.2.9 NbMarkets 1.3.2.10 NbSectors 1.3.3 Candlestick Pattern
    [Show full text]
  • A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation
    A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation Mebane T. Faber November 2006, Working Paper ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to present a simple quantitative method that improves the risk-adjusted returns across various asset classes. A moving-average timing model is tested in-sample on the United States equity market and out-of-sample on more than twenty additional domestic and foreign markets. The approach is then examined since 1972 in an allocation framework utilizing a combination of diverse and publicly traded asset class indices including the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500), Morgan Stanley Capital International Developed Markets Index (MSCI EAFE), Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts Index (NAREIT), and United States Government 10-Year Treasury Bonds. The empirical results are equity-like returns with bond-like volatility and drawdown, and over thirty consecutive years of positive performance. Mebane T. Faber Managing Director Cambria Investment Management, Inc. 2321 Rosecrans Ave., Suite 4270 El Segundo, CA 90245 E-mail: [email protected] www.cambriainvestments.com 1 Electronic copy of this paper is available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=962461 INTRODUCTION Many global asset classes in the 20 th Century produced spectacular gains in wealth for individuals who bought and held those assets for generational long holding periods. However, most of the common asset classes experienced painful drawdowns 1, and many investors can recall the 40-80% declines they faced in the aftermath of the global equity market collapse only a few years ago. The unfortunate mathematics of a 75% decline requires an investor to realize a 300% gain just to get back to even.
    [Show full text]
  • A Language for Expressing Technical Market Indicators, Its Optimisation and Application
    DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY A Language for Expressing Technical Market Indicators, Its Optimisation and Application Bakanov, Konstantin Award date: 2020 Awarding institution: Queen's University Belfast Link to publication Terms of use All those accessing thesis content in Queen’s University Belfast Research Portal are subject to the following terms and conditions of use • Copyright is subject to the Copyright, Designs and Patent Act 1988, or as modified by any successor legislation • Copyright and moral rights for thesis content are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners • A copy of a thesis may be downloaded for personal non-commercial research/study without the need for permission or charge • Distribution or reproduction of thesis content in any format is not permitted without the permission of the copyright holder • When citing this work, full bibliographic details should be supplied, including the author, title, awarding institution and date of thesis Take down policy A thesis can be removed from the Research Portal if there has been a breach of copyright, or a similarly robust reason. If you believe this document breaches copyright, or there is sufficient cause to take down, please contact us, citing details. Email: [email protected] Supplementary materials Where possible, we endeavour to provide supplementary materials to theses. This may include video, audio and other types of files. We endeavour to capture all content and upload as part of the Pure record for each thesis. Note, it may not be possible in all instances to convert analogue formats to usable digital formats for some supplementary materials. We exercise best efforts on our behalf and, in such instances, encourage the individual to consult the physical thesis for further information.
    [Show full text]
  • 2013 AAII STOCK SCREENS REVIEW: the Factors Behind the Big Returns
    JJanuaryanuary 22014014 VVOLUMEOLUME XXXXVI,XXVI, NNo.o. 1 American Association of Individual Investors 2013 AAII STOCK SCREENS REVIEW: The Factors Behind the Big Returns Also Inside: The Conditions That Have Led to Small-Cap Outperformance How Long-Term Care Insurance Can Protect Your Portfolio Purchase Guidelines for Following the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio Access All 65 Stock Screens Online If you haven’t visited AAII.com recently, please take some time today to see what the website offers. Plenty of helpful resources are available at your fi ngertips to aid you in the investment process. This issue of the AAII Journal includes our year-end Figure 1. Stock Screens Performance History Page stock screening review on page 7. The article offers an in- depth look at the best-performing screens we track on AAII. com. In addition, we take a look at certain factors that have been consistent to winning approaches through the years. AAII offers all 65 screening methodologies online to members. Screening methodologies are available across all different styles and strategies, and there should be at least a few screens that suit your personal investment beliefs and risk profi le. Each stock screen is accompanied by an overview explaining the methodology and rationale behind the strategy. In addition, you can also see the screening criteria used and a list of passing companies for each month. Though we originally created these screens as a way to track investment performance for different strategies across various market cycles, it can defi nitely be used as a “watchlist” of stocks. Annual performance for each of our screens is reported online in the Performance History tab (Figure 1).
    [Show full text]
  • FT Cloud Training Manual – July 2021 Prepared by Rob Bernstein, President, RGB Capital Group
    FT Cloud Training Manual – July 2021 Prepared by Rob Bernstein, President, RGB Capital Group This manual was prepared by Rob Bernstein, President of RGB Capital Group LLC and is provided for educational and discussion purposes only. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy a security and is not an offer to provide any specific investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any questions regarding the content in this document should be directed to Mr. Bernstein at [email protected] or 858-367-5200 FT Cloud Training Manual Table of Contents 1. Introduction a. Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1-1 b. System Overview ................................................................................................. 1-3 c. Logging Into FT Cloud ........................................................................................... 1-4 d. Software Update .................................................................................................. 1-5 2. Chart Basics a. Launching a Chart Window .................................................................................. 2-1 b. The Chart Tab – Overview .................................................................................... 2-2 c. Chart Types .......................................................................................................... 2-3 d. Chart Area ...........................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Mutual Fund/ETF Letter Chartist Editors: Dan Sullivan & Steve Mais | February 7, 2019
    30 YEARS e e Chartist Mutual Fund/ETF Letter Chartist Editors: Dan Sullivan & Steve Mais | February 7, 2019 ACCESS CODE ACTUAL CASH ACCOUNT CURRENT: 4168 ACCESS CODE THIS IS A REAL MONEY ACCOUNT, IT IS NOT HYPOTHETICAL. IT BUYS AND SELLS IN CONCERT WITH OUR HOTLINE ADVICE. AS OF 2/21/19: 2871 PURCHASE ADJUSTED TOTAL CURRENT MARKET $GAIN % FUND SYMBOL QTY DATE *PRICE COST PRICE VALUE LOSS CHG SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL DIA 443 6/3/2016 177.98 78,847 251.9 111,592 32,744 41.5% ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH IWM 1738 1/10/2019 142.15 247,062 149.71 260,196 13,134 5.3% ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH IWO 87 2/6/2012 94.82 8,249 188.07 16,362 8,113 98.4% ISHARES DJ US BASIC MATERIALS IYM 132 1/11/2012 68.12 8,992 87.83 11,594 2,602 28.9% SPDR S&P BANK KBE 376 2/6/2012 22.02 8,281 43.79 16,465 8,184 98.8% SPDR S&P REGIONAL BANKING KRE 339 1/11/2012 26.04 8,828 54.68 18,537 9,709 110.0% SPDR S&P 500 SPY 750 6/3/2016 210.33 157,744 270.14 202,605 44,861 28.4% VANGUARD SMALL CAP VB 107 2/6/2012 77.66 8,310 148.86 15,928 7,618 91.7% SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS XHB 488 1/11/2012 18.61 9,080 36.96 18,036 8,956 98.6% SPDR MATERIALS XLB 220 2/6/2012 37.61 8,274 52.75 11,605 3,331 40.3% SECTOR SPDR INDUSTRIAL SELECT XLI 224 2/6/2012 37.16 8,324 72.96 16,343 8,019 96.3% 551,991 699,262 147,271 26.7% MONEY MARKET FUNDS $994,539 Above are all the open positions in The Chartist Long-term Mutual Fund Letter Actual Cash Account.
    [Show full text]
  • Ulcer Index Measures the Human Stress of Holding a Stock
    Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, vol. 2, no.2, 2013, 89-106 ISSN: 2241-0998 (print version), 2241-0996(online) Scienpress Ltd, 2013 Drawdown Risk in Mutual Funds’ Performance Sunitha Kumaran1 Abstract To many people, the terror of falling share prices is often significant, often more so than the pleasure of gains. Accordingly, investors often want to minimize downside volatility as a part of their portfolio planning. Investors already have several tools to measure downside volatility, including the lower partial moment and the maximum drawdown. The performance benchmarks use the lower partial moment as a risk measure. The lower partial moment, however, doesn’t entirely describe the panic of investors facing continuously falling stock prices, and the maximum drawdown only captures a single event. A different tool is needed. Developed by Peter Martin in 1987, the Ulcer Index measures the human stress of holding a stock. Ulcer Index is a volatility measure that only captures continuous downside movements in share price, and ignores upside volatility. The more continuous and prolonged the drawdown, the higher the index and the more likely investing in it will cause ulcers or sleepless nights. JEL classification numbers: G110 Keywords: Ulcer Index, Ulcer Performance Index, Volatility, Share price drawdown, Investor Stress 1 Introduction Fear is one of the most powerful emotions. So much so that supposedly sophisticated investors around the world have been caught in the panic which that fear has generated. At times like these many investors lose their discipline and almost become emotionally attached to falling prices. People get attracted to the drama and lose all sense of rationality.
    [Show full text]
  • Momentum 124 Momentum (Finance) 124 Relative Strength Index 125 Stochastic Oscillator 128 Williams %R 131
    PATTERNS Technical Analysis Contents Articles Technical analysis 1 CONCEPTS 11 Support and resistance 11 Trend line (technical analysis) 15 Breakout (technical analysis) 16 Market trend 16 Dead cat bounce 21 Elliott wave principle 22 Fibonacci retracement 29 Pivot point 31 Dow Theory 34 CHARTS 37 Candlestick chart 37 Open-high-low-close chart 39 Line chart 40 Point and figure chart 42 Kagi chart 45 PATTERNS: Chart Pattern 47 Chart pattern 47 Head and shoulders (chart pattern) 48 Cup and handle 50 Double top and double bottom 51 Triple top and triple bottom 52 Broadening top 54 Price channels 55 Wedge pattern 56 Triangle (chart pattern) 58 Flag and pennant patterns 60 The Island Reversal 63 Gap (chart pattern) 64 PATTERNS: Candlestick pattern 68 Candlestick pattern 68 Doji 89 Hammer (candlestick pattern) 92 Hanging man (candlestick pattern) 93 Inverted hammer 94 Shooting star (candlestick pattern) 94 Marubozu 95 Spinning top (candlestick pattern) 96 Three white soldiers 97 Three Black Crows 98 Morning star (candlestick pattern) 99 Hikkake Pattern 100 INDICATORS: Trend 102 Average Directional Index 102 Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō 103 MACD 104 Mass index 108 Moving average 109 Parabolic SAR 115 Trix (technical analysis) 116 Vortex Indicator 118 Know Sure Thing (KST) Oscillator 121 INDICATORS: Momentum 124 Momentum (finance) 124 Relative Strength Index 125 Stochastic oscillator 128 Williams %R 131 INDICATORS: Volume 132 Volume (finance) 132 Accumulation/distribution index 133 Money Flow Index 134 On-balance volume 135 Volume Price Trend 136 Force
    [Show full text]
  • NAAIM Shark Tank Preliminary Competition
    OUTLOOK 2015 D+W Sector John Dauble+Worthington Rotation Worthington Equity Portfolios November 3 High Yield Plus Paul Signal Research Cunningham Group, LLC 4csns2.0 Stanley Four Seasons Capital Linsenbardt Growth NDX Trading Mark Pankin MDP Associates, LLC Dynamic Andre Lister Signaline Allocation Model Investments LLC KKM Enhanced U.S. Jeff Kilburg KKM Financial Equity Fund D+W Sector Rotation John Worthington Dauble+Worthington Equity Portfolios D+W Sector Rotation Model Why Sector Rotation? This University of Chicago study published in Investor's Business Daily suggests the true cause of stock movement. Causes of Price Movement Typical Resource Allocation 10% 10% 31% 49% 20% 80% Sector Company Market Sector Company Market Source: Investor's Business Daily, "Check Out Industry Rankings Before You Purchase a Stock" by Nancy Gondo Sector Rotation Goals • Identify outperforming sectors of the market • Add diversification to existing portfolios and lower market correlation • Avoid generational losses *All data presented on this page reflect only completed (hypothetical and real) trades from 12/31/2001 through 6/30/15. Please see our complete tear sheet for more details and disclosures at www.dwequity.com. Sector Rotation Rules • Investment universe: ProFunds 19 sector funds, in addition to cash. • At any given time, the portfolio may invest in up to 5 sectors. • Relative strength measures are used to determine the strongest sectors on an intermediate term basis (average trade lasts about 5.57 months). • All sectors to be included in the model must also be outperforming cash and the S&P 500. • During periods of market decline, (money market favored over S&P 500 long term) model will move 100% to cash.
    [Show full text]
  • The Investor's Guide to Fidelity Funds
    The Investor's Guide to Fidelity Funds Winning Strategies for Mutual Fund Investing Peter G. Martin M.Sc. (Applied Physics), Durham, U.K. and Byron B. McCann M.B.A. (Finance), Stanford Second Printing Venture Catalyst Redmond, Washington To America, for fostering the best investment climate in the world; and Japan, for reminding us of the importance of saving. To Fidelity Investments, for the mutual fund innovations that have revolutionized individual investing. To our families, for putting up with so much for so long. Copyright 1998 by Venture Catalyst, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction or translation of any part of this work beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copy- right Act without the permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to Venture Catalyst Inc., 17525 NE 40th Street, Suite E123, Redmond WA 98052. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authori- tative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional service. If legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought. From a Declara- tion of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers. Publisher's Cataloging in Publication Data Martin, Peter G. and McCann, Byron B. The Investor's Guide to Fidelity Funds p. cm. Bibliography: p Includes index ISBN 1-881983-03-X 1. Mutual fundsÐUnited States.
    [Show full text]