Fiscal Impact Analysis North Downtown Specific Plan City of Walnut Creek

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Fiscal Impact Analysis North Downtown Specific Plan City of Walnut Creek DRAFT REPORT Fiscal Impact Analysis North Downtown Specific Plan City of Walnut Creek Prepared for: Raimi + Associates Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. June 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 A. THE SPECIFIC PLAN AREA 1 B. DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 2 C. NET ANNUAL CITY FISCAL IMPACTS 4 D. FISCAL IMPACTS OF RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL COMPONENTS 5 E. ONE-TIME CONSTRUCTION-RELATED REVENUE TO CITY 6 F. KEY FINDINGS 7 II. METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS 8 III. LIMITING CONDITIONS 12 APPENDIX TABLES Appendix 1: Summary Net Fiscal Impact Appendix 2: City of Walnut Creek Demographics, 2017 Appendix 3: Proposed Development Program Appendix 4: Project Demographics Appendix 5: Property Tax Revenue Projection Appendix 6: Property Transfer Tax Revenue Projection Appendix 7: Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF Revenue Projection Appendix 8: Sales Tax Revenue Projection Appendix 9: Transient Occupancy Tax Revenue Projection Appendix 10: Business License Fee Revenue Projection Appendix 11: Franchise Fee Revenue Projection Appendix 12: Licenses, Permits and Fees Projection Appendix 13: Police Department Cost Projections Appendix 14: Public Works Department Cost Projections Appendix 15: Arts and Recreation Department Cost Projections Appendix 16: General Government Cost Projections Appendix 17: Administrative Services Cost Projections Appendix 18: Community and Economic Development Cost Projections Appendix 19: Development Impact Fees by Land Use Appendix 20: Development Impact Fees by Fee Type Appendix 21: Report 'Fiscal Impact Analysis, West Downtown Specific Plan, Preferred Alternative, City of Walnut Creek,’ June 2014, by BAE I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The following report has been prepared by Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. (KMA) for the City of Walnut Creek, under contract with Raimi + Associates. The report addresses the fiscal impacts estimated to be generated by the proposed North Downtown Specific Plan’s land use plan. The principal objectives of the analysis are to evaluate the following: . The on-going annual fiscal impacts to be generated by the proposed Specific Plan land use plan (SPLUP) upon buildout; and . The magnitude of one time City impact fee revenue to be generated by the proposed development. A. THE SPECIFIC PLAN AREA The Specific Plan Area (Plan Area) is comprised of 191-acres, and is located on the western edge of Walnut Creek, directly north of traditional downtown and directly east of the Walnut Creek BART station. It is surrounded by predominantly residential neighborhoods further to the east and to the west across Interstate 680, the BART tracks, and by heavier commercial activity further north. The Plan Area is located within a larger Priority Development Area (PDA), as designated by Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and the City. Predominant land uses in the Plan Area are retail, automobile sales and services, and office uses. It also currently has a small amount of housing and public uses. Some of the City’s main thoroughfares provide access through the site, including Ygnacio Valley Road, North California Boulevard, North Main Street, North Broadway, and Civic Drive. The Plan Area includes a variety of auto sales and service businesses, and some of the City’s largest office buildings. The “Golden Triangle,” directly north of the BART station, is also in the Plan Area, and contains higher intensity office uses as well as some multi-family housing. Many of the City’s public buildings and facilities are located in and around the Plan Area, including City Hall, Library, a State Department of Motor Vehicles Office, a Social Security Office, a County Fire Station, the Lesher Center for the Performing Arts, an AT&T facility, and the Post Office. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Page 1 \\SF-FS2\wp\18\18600\001\005-001.docx Figure 1. Plan Area Positioning within Downtown PDA Source: ABAG, Google Maps B. DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM The Specific Plan will include a mix of new office, residential, retail, industrial, hotel, and auto sales/service uses within the Plan Area. Table 1 presents the estimated incremental development anticipated in the Specific Plan. This analysis assumes that the development will occur over the next 30 years. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Page 2 \\SF-FS2\wp\18\18600\001\005-001.docx Table 1. North Downtown Specific Plan Development Program Net New Existing Condition Upon Buildout Development Residential (Dwelling Units) 944 1,843 899 Retail (SF) 412,021 472,730 60,709 Office (SF) 2,841,452 3,659,440 817,988 Industrial/Custom Mfg. (SF) 0 16,000 16,000 Hotel (Rooms) 160 360 200 Auto Sales/Service (SF) 423,094 386,007 (37,087) Source: City of Walnut Creek, Raimi + Associates, Fehr & Peers, and LSA Associates, Inc., 2018 As a result of both escalating land values and policy, development within the Specific Plan is expected to become denser and more compact. Suburban automobile dealership formats are anticipated to evolve into more urban prototypes, such as two-story showroom buildings that replace large outdoor display lots. In addition to the expectation that dealerships will have smaller footprints, it is also anticipated that one of the Plan Area’s existing dealerships will relocate to a site that is north of the Plan Area but still within the City of Walnut Creek. Per the development program, population within the Specific Plan will increase by approximately 1,519 and employment by approximately 3,546. Resident population has been calculated based on the household size of 1.69 persons per household. The development program will increase the City’s service population by approximately 3,300. Service population is defined as 100 percent of residents residing within a jurisdiction plus 50 percent of employees working in the jurisdiction. Calculating service population in this manner is an accepted practice in fiscal impact analyses and is intended to reflect the fact that local employment contributes to the jurisdictions daytime population, thereby increasing demands for governmental services. Table 2. Estimated Net New Specific Plan Population and Employment Net Increase Resident Population 1,519 Employment Retail 121 Office 3,272 Industrial/Custom Manufacturing 35 Hotel 180 Auto Sales/Service (62) 3,546 Service Population1 3,292 See Appendix 4 for details. 1 Service Population is calculated as resident population plus half of employment population. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Page 3 \\SF-FS2\wp\18\18600\001\005-001.docx C. NET ANNUAL CITY FISCAL IMPACTS The fiscal impact analysis estimates the long-range municipal revenue and cost implications of new development that would be permitted under the Specific Plan. Given that this analysis models the conceptual land use plan contained in the Specific Plan rather than specific proposed development projects, the findings of the analysis should be considered as broad indicators of fiscal impacts rather than precise conclusions. It provides information that can be useful in preparing for future development and establishing mechanisms to ensure that new development enhances the fiscal health of the City of Walnut Creek. As presented in Table 3, the net new development within the Specific Plan Area is expected to generate a net annual surplus to the City’s General Fund of approximately $1.08 million per year. Annual tax revenues directly generated by new development are estimated to total $2.85 million, with property taxes (including property transfer tax and property taxes in-lieu of vehicle license fees) being the single largest revenue source, totaling $1.11 million per year. The second and third major sources of revenue are transit occupancy tax (TOT) and sales tax1, respectively. Although TOT and sales tax are subject to variation based on market conditions, even with a significant decrease in these revenue sources there would be a net positive fiscal impact from the development program. Annual expenditures on City services directly associated with the SPLUP’s new development are estimated to total $1.78 million per year. Police department and public works department costs are the two largest sources of expenditure and are estimated to total $850,000 and $390,000, respectively. 1 Sales tax revenues reflect sales from the additional 60,709 square feet of retail space contained in the SPLUP and do not include sales from existing retail and auto dealerships within the SP. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Page 4 \\SF-FS2\wp\18\18600\001\005-001.docx Table 3. Estimated Net New Annual Fiscal Impact of New Development within the SP1 Annual Revenues Property Tax $1,110,000 Transit Occupancy Tax $920,000 Sales Tax $410,000 2 Other Revenues $410,000 Total Revenues $2,850,000 Annual Expenditures Police Department $850,000 Public Works Department $390,000 3 Other Expenditures $540,000 Total Expenditures $1,780,000 Net Annual Fiscal Surplus $1,080,000 See Appendix 1 for details; Figures may not add due to rounding 1Reflects revenues and expenses to be generated by net new development within the SP, and does not include revenues and expenses generated by existing development. 2 Other Revenues include Business License Revenues, Franchise Fees, and Licenses, Permits and Fees 3 Other Expenditures include Arts and Recreation department costs, General Government costs, Administrative Services costs, and Community and Economic Development costs D. FISCAL IMPACTS OF RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL COMPONENTS Each land use component of the SPLUP is anticipated to generate a net fiscal surplus to the City’s General Fund, including the residential component. As shown in Table 4, the residential component is anticipated to generate a slight annual fiscal surplus of approximately $150,000 per year. This result is consistent with other fiscal impact studies for infill residential developments in upscale Bay Area communities. Given that the isolated net impact of both residential and commercial uses in the mixed-use development program have a net positive fiscal impact, it is anticipated that new development within the Plan Area will generate a fiscal surplus to the City irrespective of the specific combination of residential and commercial uses that are built in any particular year.
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