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North American Electric Reliability Corporation, 2008 Long-Term 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2008-2017 to ensure the reliability of the bulk power system October 2008 116-390 Village Blvd., Princeton, NJ 08540 609.452.8060 | 609.452.9550 fax www.nerc.com This page left intentionally blank Table of Contents Table of Contents NERC’S MISSION........................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 2 PROGRESS SINCE 2007 ............................................................................................... 5 KEY FINDINGS FOR 2008-2017 .................................................................................... 7 KEY FINDINGS FOR 2008-2017 .................................................................................... 8 1. Capacity Margins Improved, though Resources still Required .............................................................................8 2. Wind Capacity Projected to Significantly Increase.............................................................................................12 3. More Transmission Needed to Maintain Bulk System Reliability and Integrate New Generation .....................15 4. Demand Response Increasingly Used to Meet Resource Adequacy Requirements ............................................18 5. Bulk Power System Adequacy Trends Emphasize Maintenance, Tools and Training........................................22 EMERGING ISSUE ASSESSMENT & SCENARIO ANALYSIS................................... 25 Emerging Issue Risk Assessment .............................................................................................................................25 Potential Environmental Regulation could Impact Resource Adequacy..............................................................28 Greenhouse Gas Reductions....................................................................................................................................28 U.S. Clean Water Act: Cooling-Water Intake Structures........................................................................................29 U.S. Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) and Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR)......................................................31 Fuel Transportation & Storage ................................................................................................................................33 Rising Global Demand Impacts for Electric Power Equipment............................................................................39 Increased Adoption of Distributed Generation and Demand-Side Resources .....................................................41 Transmission of the 21st Century.............................................................................................................................44 Water Availability and Use.......................................................................................................................................46 2009 Scenario Analysis Summary ............................................................................................................................48 RELIABILITY HISTORICAL TRENDS.......................................................................... 50 REGIONAL RELIABILITY ASSESSMENTS ................................................................ 62 Background..............................................................................................................................................................62 Regional Demand & Resource Projections 2008-2017 .................................................................................63 Table 13a: Estimated 2008 Summer Margins (%), Resources and Demands (MW) .............................68 i 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Table of Contents Table 13b: Estimated 2008/09 Winter Margins (%), Resources and Demands (MW) ...........................69 Table 13c: Estimated 2012 Summer Margins (%), Resources and Demands (MW) .............................70 Table 13d: Estimated 2012/13 Winter Margins (%), Resources and Demands (MW) ...........................71 Table 13e: Estimated 2017 Summer Margins (%), Resources and Demands (MW) .............................72 Table 13f: Estimated 2017/18 Winter Margins (%), Resources and Demands (MW) ............................73 ERCOT Highlights...................................................................................................................................................75 ERCOT Self-Assessment......................................................................................................................................77 FRCC Highlights .....................................................................................................................................................83 FRCC Self-Assessment.........................................................................................................................................86 MRO Highlights .......................................................................................................................................................93 MRO Self-Assessment...........................................................................................................................................97 NPCC Highlights ...................................................................................................................................................111 NPCC Self-Assessment.......................................................................................................................................118 Maritimes Area......................................................................................................................................................123 New England.........................................................................................................................................................128 New York..............................................................................................................................................................139 Ontario ..................................................................................................................................................................148 Québec ..................................................................................................................................................................157 RFC Highlights ......................................................................................................................................................162 RFC Self-Assessment..........................................................................................................................................165 SERC Highlights ...................................................................................................................................................177 SERC Self-Assessment.......................................................................................................................................182 Central...................................................................................................................................................................193 Delta......................................................................................................................................................................197 Gateway ................................................................................................................................................................201 Southeastern ..........................................................................................................................................................206 VACAR.................................................................................................................................................................209 SPP Highlights.......................................................................................................................................................215 SPP Self Assessment ..........................................................................................................................................218 WECC Highlights ..................................................................................................................................................225 WECC Self-Assessment......................................................................................................................................233 Northwest Power Pool Area..................................................................................................................................250 Rocky Mountain Power Area................................................................................................................................256 Arizona-New Mexico-Southern Nevada Power Area ...........................................................................................258 California-Mexico Power Area .............................................................................................................................261 ii 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Table of Contents ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT .............................................................. 265 CAPACITY, DEMAND & EVENT DEFINITIONS .......................................................
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