A GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL'S FIRST-YEAR PLAYER SIGNINGS, 1965-1977 By MARK WILSON ,,RUPERT Bachelor of Arts Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio 1974 Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate College of the Oklahoma State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1980 \~~'S~S \C\ io ~C\1451 Q.ic~· 1- A GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL 1 S FIRST-YEAR PLAYER SIGNINGS, 1965- 1977 Thesis Approved: Thesis Advi & Dean of the Graduate College 1057~29 ii PREFACE This project was initiated in December, 1977 when Dr. John F. Rooney handed me a carton of papers dealing with contemporary profes­ sional baseball player signings. My original plan was to analyze only a portion of the data for a paper to be presented the following April at the annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers. I became so engrossed with the subject that I soon decided to thoroughly examine the entire data set for a masters thesis. A two-month tour of many of the major league ballparks during the summer of 1978 further aroused my curiosity for the subject. The intertwining of baseball and geography has since become a personal labor of love. It is hoped that others might find this thesis interesting and informative. I must thank Dr. Rooney for making the data available and for his invaluable expertise as my major adviser. Thanks are also extended to Dr. Stephen W. Tweedie and Dr. George 0. Carney for their interest and timely advice. I am indebted to Gayle Maxwell and her cartography staff for their professional work on the maps included in this thesis. I am likewise greatly appreciative of the work done by the typists Jean Schwab and Sharon Hair. Also, many thanks to Miles Bogh for his computer programming assistance and constant encouragement. Finally, sincerest thanks go out to my family who were so supportive during my graduate residency. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I. THE RESEARCH PROBLEM l Introduction ....... l The Scope of the Investigation 2 Research Justification .... 4 Review of the Literature 5 II. THE HISTORY OF PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL AND ITS ACQUISITION OF PLAYERS ..... 13 Introduction ....... 13 Baseball in the 19th Century 13 The Formative Years 13 True Professionalism . 15 Acquiring the Players 16 The Major Leagues 18 The Minor Leagues 19 Baseball in the 20th Century 20 A Period of Stabilization 20 The Development of Farm Systems 23 World War Two's Influence 25 The Bonus-Baby Era ...... 27 Recent Developments ..... 28 III. A FREE-AGENT DRAFT AND THE SCOUTING INDUSTRY 33 Baseball's Amateur Free-Agent Draft ... 33 Why a Free-Agent Draft . 33 A Comparison With Other Professional Sport Drafts ........... 36 The Professional-Collegiate Conflict 39 Baseball's Scouting Business .... 42 The Atlanta Braves' Example 44 IV. METHODOLOGICAL TECHNIQUES OF THE ANALYSIS 49 Compiling the Sample 49 The Location Quotient 52 Illustrative Techniques 55 iv Chapter Page V. AN ANALYSIS OF THE TOTAL SAMPLE OF FIRST-YEAR PLAYERS 57 Introduction .......... 57 Analysis at the State Level 58 Analysis at the County Level . 62 Analysis of Metropolitan Areas 67 Analysis of Foreign Producers 72 Toward an Explanation of the Total First­ Year Player Production .... 75 An Analysis of Production Trends 80 VI. THE PRODUCTION OF MAJOR LEAGUERS .... 89 Introduction ......... 89 Analysis at the State Level 91 Analysis of Metropolitan Areas 92 Areal Success Analysis ..... 96 Success Analysis at the State Level 98 Success Analysis of Metropolitan Areas 103 Toward an Explanation of Areal Success 103 The Lack of Foreign Success 110 VII. A BASEBALL FAN'S IMPRESSIONS OF THE DATA . 114 Introduction ............ 114 An Overview of the Signing Statistics 114 Annual Observations ..... 116 Two Intriguing Conclusions 124 Individual Club Strategies 126 The American League 127 The National League . 136 A Summary of the Strategies 142 VIII. CONCLUDING REMARKS ...... 147 Analysis Summary . 147 Future Research Considerations 149 A SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY . 153 APPENDIXES 156 APPENDIX A . 157 APPENDIX B 161 APPENDIX C 169 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page I. Major League Baseball's Geographic Alignment, 1903- 1953 . 21 II. Major League Baseball's Geographic Alignment, 1979 29 III. Location of Atlanta Braves' Scouts, 1980 45 IV. Leading States Producing Professional Baseba 11 1 s First-Year Players, 1965- 1977 . 59 v. Leading Counties Based on Production of First- Year Players . 66 VI. Primary First-Year Player Producing Metropolitan Areas . 68 VI I. Heavily Populated, Low First-Year Player Producing Metropolitan Areas . 70 VIII. Leading Less-Populated Metropolitan Areas Based on Production Rate of First-Year Players . 71 IX. Leading States Based on Production Rate of Major League Players, 1965- 1978 . 91 X. Primary Major League Player Producing Metropolitan Areas . 94 XI. Leading Less-Populated Metropolitan Areas Based on Production Rate of Major League Players ... 95 XII. Heavily Populated, Low Major League Player Producing Metropolitan Areas 97 XIII. Most 11 Successful 11 SMSAs .. 104 XIV. Least 11 Successful 11 SMSAs 105 XV. Annual First-Year Player Signing Statistics 115 XVI. Signing and Success Statistics For Major League C1 ubs . 129 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page l. An Example of the Raw First-Year Player Data .. 51 2. Per Capita Production of Professional Baseball 1s First-Year Players ............. 61 3. Per Capita Production of Professional Baseball 1s First-Year Players by County ....... 63 4. Annual Production Trend of First-Year Players 82 5. The Stable Production Trend of Illinois 83 6. The Stable Production Trend of Canada 83 7. The Increasing Production Trend of Florida 84 8. The Increasing Production Trend of Latin America 84 9. The Decreasing Production Trend of Iowa 86 10. The Random Production Trend of Arkansas 86 11. Per Capita Production of Professional Baseball 1s Major League Players ............ 93 12. Per Capita 11 Success 11 of Professional Baseball 1s First-Year Players ............. 99 13. Three-Way Comparison of State Production Indices l 01 14. Leading Major League Club Signing Involvement by State 128 15. The Relationship Between a Club's Signing Strategy and Playing Performance ........... 144 16. The Relationship Between a Club 1s Administrative Behavior and Playing Performance ...... 145 vii CHAPTER I THE RESEARCH PROBLEM Introduction Any successful business establishment requires a continual replenishing of youth within its employment structure to remain competitive with its rivals. Aside from the obvious necessity of filling the vacated positions of retired or released personnel, young employees are often the ones expected to revitalize a business with their enthusiasm and seemingly unlimited potential. In no business is this more apparent than in professional sport and in few profes­ sional sports is this more vividly exemplied than in Professional Baseball. Professional Baseball brings more young athletes into its system each year than any of America's other major professional sports com­ bined. Baseball's 26 major league clubs annually sign approximately 1,000 amateur prospects to professional contracts. The competition for these "first-year players" is so intense that over 50 percent of them are divided among the clubs via a draft selection system. And, that is just the beginning of the competitive process. Once signed, a first-year player is normally assigned to a minor league team in his major league club's "farm system. 11 (A major league club normally controls a minimum of four minor league teams, rarely more than six.) l 2 In the minor leagues a prospect is given the opportunity to develop his talent with the aid of professional coaching while competing against teams of comparable skill. During and after a playing season those athletes exhibiting the most potential are advanced to a higher level of competition. The disappointing prospects are released with little hope of ever again playing in Professional Baseball's circuit. By releasing the failures the system is prepared to embrace another 1,000 new prospects the next year and the process repeats itself. Obviously, each step up Professional Baseball's competitive ladder becomes more difficult for most athletes to attain. By the time every inferior player is culled at some point during a minor league carrer, approxi­ mately 10 percent of his year's class of prospects will have performed at the major league level, and probably only one-half of these can expect to become everyday regulars. Yes, in Baseball, it is truly only the strong who survive. The Scope of the Investigation The scenario depicted in the introduction is of great interest to devotees of baseball. The sanctity and preciseness of Organized Baseball's record-keeping system has created a situation wherein the careers of professional baseball players are probably as well docu­ mented as any single group of men in America, save our Presidents. There is, however, one specific player characteristic typically ignored by baseball fans that is grist for the sports geographer's mill - a player's amateur origin. By examining the origins of many players one can begin to determine the player production capacities of various areas. That, in the broadest sense, is the purpose of this study. 3 This research is based upon a 100 percent sample of athletes (13,985 in all) who signed first-year player contracts with Professional Baseball from 1965 through 1977. Information concerning a player's origin (his address when the contract was signed), the player's subsequent degree of success as a professional, and, the major league club with whom the player signed are examined in order to achieve four primary objectives. l. To discover what areas (country, state, county, and metro­ politan area) show a propensity to produce quality amateur baseball players (those signing with Professional Baseball's clubs) and, conversely, what areas are poor producers of baseball talent.