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Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Spent Fuel Handling and Storage Programs: Methodology and Application to the Diablo Canyon Power Plant

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Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Spent Fuel Handling and Storage Programs: Methodology and Application to the Diablo Canyon Power Plant GIRS-2020-3/L Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Spent Fuel Handling and Storage Programs: Methodology and Application to the Diablo Canyon Power Plant Prepared by B. John Garrick, Principal Investigator Donald J. Wakefield Prepared Under A Collaborative Research and Development Agreement Between The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences at UCLA and Pacific Gas and Electric Company February 17, 2020 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This This research and development project required the collaboration of many professionals at both PG&E and The B. John Garrick Institute at UCLA. The authors wish to thank PG&E for the professional manner in which they handled all requests for information. The efficiency with which documents were provided made possible performing an extensive amount of analysis in a short period of time. The PG&E staff were exemplary in their support of the study. Special thanks to John Kessler, Consultant, who provided critically needed information and review and Mihai A. Diaconeasa of the Garrick Institute for providing technical input for planning and scoping the study. We also wish to thank Ali Mosleh, Director of the Garrick Institute, for his leadership in collaborating with PG&E. We wish to acknowledge and thank Maureen Zawalick and Jordan Tyman in establishing and monitoring the collaborative research program between the UCLA Garrick Institute and PG&E under which this study was conducted. Finally, the authors want to thank the Garrick Institute staff for their assistance in publishing the study. 2 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AB Auxiliary Building ACRS Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards AFW Auxiliary Feedwater ASW Auxiliary Saltwater BDB Beyond Design Basis BWR Boiling Water Reactor CDF Core Damage Frequency CCW Component Cooling Water CFD Computational Fluid Dynamics CTF Cask Transfer Facility CST Condensate Storage Tank CWA Cask Washdown Area DCPP Diablo Canyon Power Plant DDE Double Design Earthquake DFC Damaged Fuel Container DSFR DCPP Spent Fuel Risk EDG Emergency Diesel Generator EOL End of Life EPRI Electric Power Research Institute FDF Fuel Damage Frequency FHB Fuel Handling Building FSAR Final Safety Analysis Report FWST Fire Water Storage Tank HCLPF High Confidence (85%) of Low Probability of Failure (<.05) HEP Human Error Probability HEPA High-Efficiency Particulate Air (filter) HRA Human Reliability Analysis ILP ISFSI Long Period (Earthquake Spectra) ISFSI Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation Keff Effective Reactivity Coefficient, k-effective LERF Large Early Release Frequency 3 LPT Low Profile Transporter LTSP Long Term Seismic Program MLWL Mean Lower Water Level MPC Multipurpose Canister NPP Nuclear Power Plant PG&E Pacific Gas and Electric ppm Parts Per Million PRA Probabilistic Risk Assessment PWR Pressurized Water Reactor QHO Quantitative Health Objectives RHR Residual Heat Removal RWR Raw Water Reservoir RWST Refueling Water Storage Tank SA Spectral Acceleration SCS Supplemental Cooling System (for transfer cask) SFP Spent Fuel Pool SNF Spent Nuclear Fuel TS Technical Specifications UFSAR Diablo Canyon Spent Fuel Storage Installation “Update for the Final Safety Analysis Report” USNRC U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission VCT Vertical Cask Transporter 4 Table of Contents Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... 10 Summary Report ............................................................................................................................... 15 1 Purpose and Background .......................................................................................................... 30 2 Overview of DCPP Spent Fuel Handling ................................................................................. 33 3 Risk Assessment Approach and Application ............................................................................ 35 4 Screening of DCPP Fuel Handling Activities and Initiating Events ........................................ 40 5 Description of Spent Fuel Pool Severe Accident ..................................................................... 58 6 Release Characteristics and Selection of Risk Metrics ............................................................. 62 7 DCPP Safeguards Against Spent Fuel Pool Severe Accidents ................................................. 70 8 Analysis of Moving SNF from the SFP to the ISFSI ............................................................... 75 8.1 Assessment of the Four Offload Scenarios ....................................................................... 75 8.2 Comparisons of Frequencies of Initiating Event Contributors ......................................... 80 8.3 Integrated Frequency of Fuel Uncovery Weighted by Equivalent Number of Fuel Assemblies Present ....................................................................................................................... 86 8.4 Probability of Fuel Uncovery Weighted by the Number of Fuel Assemblies Present that Overheat ........................................................................................................................................ 94 9 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 129 10 References .............................................................................................................................. 133 Appendix A..................................................................................................................................... 137 Appendix B ..................................................................................................................................... 150 Appendix C ..................................................................................................................................... 156 5 List of Tables Table 1 Comparison of Initiating Event Frequency Contributors (events per year) between Fuel Unrecovery at the SFP and Potential Fuel Overheating while SNF is at the ISFSI Pads ................. 25 Table 2. Severe Accident Frequencies and Recurrence Intervals for DCPP Unit 2 ......................... 27 Table 4-1 Potential Initiating Events ................................................................................................ 41 Table 4-2. Comparison of PWR SFP Fuel Uncovery Frequencies (events per SFP-year) ............... 42 Table 4-3. Total DCPP CDF/LERF for Plant Internal Events, Seismic Events, Internal Fires, and Internal Floods for At-Power Conditions (events/year) ................................................................... 49 Table 4-4. Contributors to PWR Pilot SFP Fuel Uncovery Frequencies (per SFP year), (EPRI, 2014) .......................................................................................................................................................... 50 Table 4-5. Summary of the Initiating Events Surviving the Screening in Appendix A and Their Estimated Frequencies per Year ....................................................................................................... 54 Table 4-6. Sums of the Table 4-5 Initiating Event Frequencies per Year by Groups of Potential Consequences ................................................................................................................................... 55 Table 5-1. Event Temperatures for SFP Accident Progressions Involving a Loss of Coolant ......... 58 Table 7-1. Key SFP Elevations ......................................................................................................... 71 Table 8-1 Impact of Different Offload Scenarios on SFP Inventory ................................................ 77 Table 8-2. High Level Characterization of Offload Scenarios for Unit 2 in Terms of MPC Movements .......................................................................................................................................................... 78 Table 8-3. Comparison of Initiating Event Frequency Contributors Between Potential Fuel Overheating at the SFP and Potential Fuel Overheating while SNF is at the ISFSI Pads ................ 84 Table 8-4. Time Integrated Probabilities of SFP Fuel Uncovery Weighted by Effective Number of Fuel Assemblies Present Considering Cesium Decay ...................................................................... 87 Table 8-5. Summary of Spent Nuclear Fuel Assembly Heat Loads versus Time after Reactor Shutdown………………………………………………………………………………………….104 Table 8-6. Fuel Uncovery Sequence Groupings for Assessment of Extent of Fuel Damage given Fuel Uncovery …………………………………………………………………………………………105 Table 8-7. Criteria for Overheating of Spent Fuel under Different Conditions of Fuel Assembly Heat Load and Coolant Inventory ……………………………………………………………………...107 Table 8-8. Conditions for Extent of Fuel Overheating Given a Long Time to Fuel Uncovery Occurs; i.e., No Coolant Leakage …………………………………………………………………………110 Table 8-9. Conditions for Extent of Fuel Overheating Given a Short Time to Fuel Uncovery Occurs due to Coolant Leakage …………………………………………………………………………….113 Table 8-10. Comparison of Fuel Uncovery Probabilities Weighted by Extent of Fuel Overheating and Cesium for Offload Scenarios .................................................................................................. 117 Table 8-11. Sensitivity of Integrated Fuel Uncovery Probabilities Weighted by the Extent of Fuel Overheating for Different Amounts of Natural
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