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The Hard Sell Recent Years Has Been Downwards

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The Hard Sell Recent Years Has Been Downwards TIPS IDEAS FARM the general trajectory of the share price over subsequent build-up in shorts underpinned The hard sell recent years has been downwards. This our confidence in the sell case and encour- emphasises the importance of taking the kind aged us to restate the call. Shorts peaked ALGY HALL of external prompts we monitor in the Ideas at 12.5 per cent in May last year, by which ome stock ideas just keep on giving. While Farm as a reason to undertake further research time the shares were already down to 774p. Sthis is a principle often associated with rather than a call to blindly follow suit. Negative bets fell to 5 per cent a year ago, but buy-and-hold investments, the same can But on this occasion, we think the have been riding high again for much of the apply to popular shorts (bets that a share prospects for Sainsbury may be more akin to past 12 months. The shares hit a 66p low in price will fall). Indeed, over recent weeks, two of the other serial short favourites when March and currently trade at 95p. four of the top five stocks in our most-shorted- they’ve previously experienced short surges: Shorts aside, our view of both Cineworld shares table are names that have flirted with Cineworld and Metro Bank. and Metro Bank when we moved to sell boiled top spots on the list in the past. In the case of cinema chain Cineworld, down to the fact they looked vulnerable to the Of the top five,Cineword (CINE), Metro it was a combination of sharply rising short dreaded combination of an ongoing decline Bank (MTRO), J Sainsbury (SBRY) and interest and broker downgrades that attracted in profit coupled with an overstretched bal- Premier Oil (PMO) all have historical form as our attention to the shares in September ance sheet. We fear the same may be true for popular shorts – although short positions in last year. Further research encouraged us Sainsbury now. Premier have actually more than halved from to rate the shares a sell at 241p, from which Our calls on stocks are just a view, and about 20 per cent in recent months. point short interest doubled again to almost should always be considered fallible. The We’ve previously taken a cue from 15 per cent in February (based on data from Sainsbury short surge could once again be rising shorts in two of these stocks (Cineworld Castellain Capital’s Short Tracker). Shorts sending a false signal, and our original deci- and Metro Bank) with impressive results. unwound as the shares plummeted towards sion to move Sainsbury to a sell in June 2019 And in the Tips section this week, we’ve been their 18p March low, but negative bets have at 202p, when shorts were at 3.6 per cent, encouraged to look at Sainsbury after a sharp built again as the share price has moved back was poorly timed – the shares’ fall since increase in short interest. to today’s 60p level. has been less than half that of the blue-chip Historical shorting patterns in the super- In the case of Metro Bank, we were initially index. The current reasoning behind our market group’s shares actually make an inter- intrigued by forecast downgrades at the then negativity can be found on page 29. Those esting case study into how short surges can richly valued challenger bank. This was three intrigued by our arguments are, as always, offer a false signal. Two historical surges failed years ago with the shares at 3,491p and prior encouraged to do their own research and to identify major share price declines, although to short interest really taking off. However, the come to their own conclusions. Fund manager best ideas: UK sustainable New 52-week highs (top 28) Based on top 5 holdings Name TIDM Price % from high Pershing Square PSH 2,130p 0.0% Genus PLC 1 No of funds Baillie Gifford US Growth USA 251p 0.0% Gresham House PLC 1 AstraZeneca PLC 4 (+1) Collagen Solutions COS 7p 0.0% Halma PLC 1 London Stock Exchange Group PLC 4 (+1) Applied Graphene Material AGM 53p 0.0% Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 1 B&M European Value Retail SA 2 (NEW) BBGI BBGI 172p 0.1% Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC 1 Croda International PLC 2 Pacific Horizon Investment Trust PHI 564p 0.4% Howden Joinery Group PLC 1 Experian PLC 2 (-1) Softcat SCT 1,414p 0.6% Inspired Energy PLC 1 GlaxoSmithKline PLC 2 (-3) Allianz Technology Trust ATT 2,560p 0.6% Intermediate Capital Group PLC 1 HSBC Holdings PLC 2 (+1) Polar Capital Tech PCT 2,230p 0.7% Kainos Group PLC 1 Just Eat Takeaway.com NV 2 SDCL Energy Efficiency SEIT 112p 0.9% LondonMetric Property PLC 1 Kingspan Group PLC 2 Fidelity China Special FCSS 323p 1.1% Macfarlane Group PLC 1 (NEW) Rentokil Initial PLC 2 (+1) Gamesys GYS 1,162p 1.4% National Grid PLC 1 (-2) Smurfit Kappa Group PLC 2 Gresham House GHE 690p 1.4% Nestle SA 1 Softcat PLC 2 (NEW) HgCapital Trust HGT 275p 1.4% Phoenix Group Holdings PLC 1 Avast PLC 1 JP Morgan Emerging Markets JMG 1,074p 1.5% Polypipe Group PLC 1 AVEVA Group PLC 1 (-1) JPMorgan American Investment Trust JAM 520p 1.5% Prudential PLC 1 Bellway PLC 1 4D Pharma DDDD 129p 1.5% Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC 1 BHP Group PLC 1 Rio Tinto PLC 1 (NEW) Monks Investment Trust MNKS 1,148p 1.5% Colgate-Palmolive Co 1 S&P Global Inc 1 JP Morgan European Small JESC 399p 1.5% Dechra Pharmaceuticals PLC 1 Sabre Insurance Group PLC 1 Capital Gearing Trust CGT 4,450p 1.5% Diageo PLC 1 (NEW) SSE PLC 1 Asos ASC 5,066p 1.6% Diploma PLC 1 Strix Group PLC 1 (NEW) Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon BGS 197p 1.6% Dunelm Group PLC 1 (NEW) Telecom Plus PLC 1 Hastings HSTG 252p 1.7% EKF Diagnostics Holdings PLC 1 (NEW) Tesco PLC 1 Jubilee Metals Group JLP 6p 1.7% Fevertree Drinks PLC 1 (NEW) Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc 1 Witan Pacific Investment Trust WPC 371p 1.8% Frontier Developments PLC 1 Unilever NV 1 JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust JFJ 550p 1.8% Games Workshop Group PLC 1 (NEW) Unilever PLC 1 (-1) Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust SMT 967p 1.8% Gamma Communications PLC 1 (NEW) UnitedHealth Group Inc 1 Triple Point Social Housing REIT SOHO 107p 1.8% GB Group PLC 1 Source: Morningstar, as at 2 September 2020 Source: FactSet, as at 2 September 2020 32 INVESTORS CHRONICLE 4 SEP - 10 SEP 2020 TIPS IDEAS FARM New 52-week lows 1-month EPS upgrades (top 25) Name TIDM Price % from low FWD EPS CHG Rolls-Royce RR 207p 0.0% Name TIDM 1mth 3mth 1yr SME Credit Realisation Fund SCRF 55p 0.5% IGas Energy IGAS 130.6% -50.3% -83% Galliford Try GFRD 86p 0.5% Barclays BARC 128.5% 165.1% -81% HSBC HSBA 317p 0.6% Bakkavor BAKK 56p 0.9% ASOS ASC 116.2% - 239% Kier Group KIE 59p 1.7% Alfa Financial Software ALFA 100.6% 100.6% -72% Schroder REIT SREI 30p 1.9% Stagecoach SGC 63.9% -84.9% -88% Mears MER 118p 2.2% Accrol ACRL 58.2% 58.2% - Imperial Brands IMB 1,246p 2.2% Renishaw RSW 57.6% 73.9% -36% John Laing JLG 282p 2.3% IXICO IXI 50.0% - - Standard Chartered STAN 378p 2.4% Rotala ROL 19p 2.7% LSL Property Services LSL 49.0% 0.9% -21% TOC Property Backed Lending PBLT 86p 2.9% TI Fluid Systems TIFS 47.7% 98.6% -85% Source: FactSet, as at 2 September 2020 Lloyds Banking Group LLOY 42.1% -31.8% -85% Sylvania Platinum SLP 41.4% 27.1% 135% Shorts Clipper Logistics CLG 39.7% 36.7% 0% Short No of 1-week change Luceco LUCE 37.0% 262.0% 62% Company interest shorters in short interest Capital CAPD 35.4% 38.0% 63% Hammerson 14.0% 11 0.0% Grafton GFTU 33.9% 1.6% -47% Metro Bank 8.8% 5 -0.1% Keller KLR 32.5% 16.4% -13% Sainsbury (J) 8.5% 7 0.2% Proactis PHD 30.0% 30.0% -63% Cineworld 8.2% 8 -1.2% Gear4music G4M 27.2% 261.1% 457% Premier Oil 8.2% 2 0.0% Ariana Resources AAU 26.7% 40.7% -5% Tullow Oil 7.5% 5 0.0% Hochschild Mining HOC 25.8% 5.9% -14% Royal Mail 7.2% 6 0.0% AO World AO 24.0% - - Pearson 6.0% 5 0.6% 3i Group III 22.8% 96.6% -13% Petrofac 5.8% 7 0.0% Kenmare Resources KMR 22.8% -58.2% -76% Tui 5.6% 2 0.0% Petropavlovsk 5.6% 7 0.1% IP Group IPO 21.1% 21.1% -64% Source: FactSet, as at 2 September 2020 Domino’s Pizza 5.5% 3 0.6% Pets At Home 5.0% 3 0.0% Babcock International 4.9% 4 0.5% Future 4.8% 6 0.1% 1-month EPS downgrades (top 25) Weir Group 4.8% 5 -0.1% FWD EPS CHG Blue Prism 4.7% 3 0.0% Name TIDM 1mth 3mth 1yr IQE 4.6% 5 0.3% Mears MER -88.0% -94.9% -96% Capita 4.0% 4 0.0% Churchill China CHH -87.9% - -86% Vodafone 3.7% 4 -0.1% PageGroup PAGE -87.0% -92.6% -98% Croda International 3.7% 3 0.0% Yourgene Health YGEN -58.8% - - Micro Focus International 3.5% 3 0.0% Appreciate Group APP -58.3% -58.3% -59% Wm Morrison Supermarkets 3.5% 4 0.0% H&T HAT -57.3% -57.5% -40% Ashmore 3.4% 4 0.0% Hays HAS -53.1% -45.5% -81% Keywords Studios 3.3% 5 -0.5% Ascential ASCL -52.2% -64.1% -89% Wood Group (John) 3.3% 4 0.0% Glencore GLEN -44.7% -23.2% -83% Ascential 3.2% 2 0.0% Petrofac PFC -41.9% -58.8% -81% Marks & Spencer 3.2% 3 0.0% Melrose Industries MRO -38.3% -95.1% -98% Hurricane Energy 3.2% 3 0.4% U & I UAI -38.0% - -81% Intercontinental Hotels 3.1% 5 0.0% Balfour Beatty BBY -37.8% -52.8% -64% Auto Trader 3.1% 4 0.0% Inspiration Healthcare IHC -37.1% -47.6% -37% Primary Health Properties 3.0% 1 0.0% Vitec VTC -36.2% -60.5% -91% Ultra Electronics 3.0% 2 0.0% InterContinental Hotels IHG -35.0% -65.0% -86% N.
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