The Great British Brain Drain an Analysis of Migration to and from Norwich April 2018
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The Great British Brain Drain An analysis of migration to and from Norwich April 2018 1. Introduction The economic performance of UK cities is increasingly dependent on the skills of their workforce. Cities across the UK face the challenge of both attracting and retaining high-skilled talent. In autumn 2016, Centre for Cities published ‘The Great British Brain Drain’ which looked at migration within the UK, specifically between cities, with a focus on the movements of new graduates. The report found that: • Movers tend to be more skilled than the population overall: degree holders represented 32 per cent of the population but 38 per cent of all the people that moved. • Younger degree holders tend to move larger distances with London attracting the largest share of these young graduates. In contrast, older degree holders don’t tend to move as far and tend to remain within a commutable distance of the city they leave. • Many university cities lose their graduates to London, with this movement especially strong for the highest performing graduates with a 2.1 or 1st class degree from a Russell Group university. • Most university cities experience a ‘graduate gain’; they gain more graduates than they lose. This is because the majority of movements to and from cities consist of students moving to a new city for university, and then moving again for work, with over half of all graduates following this pattern. This briefing is a complementary piece of analysis to the main report, in which we look in detail at the nature of migration graduate mobility into and out of Norwich. Firstly, it looks at overall migration patterns to and from Norwich. Secondly, it looks specifically at the movements of students and new graduates. Finally it looks at the new graduate labour market in the city. Centre for Cities uses the Primary Urban Area (PUA) definition of cities. For Norwich this comprises of Norwich and Broadland. For more information visit: www.centreforcities.org/puas. 1 Centre for Cities The Great British Brain Drain: An analysis of migration to and from Norwich • April 2018 2. The nature of migration to and from Norwich This section combines data on all migration within England and Wales from the ONS and the 2011 Census to look at migration to and from Norwich by age and qualifications. Most migration is between Norwich, and East Anglia and the eastern half of England Between 2009 and 2015, 90,010 people moved into Norwich and 88,980 people moved out, resulting in a net inflow of 1,030 people over that six-year period. In comparison, Bournemouth experienced the largest net inflow of 15,100 people and London the largest net outflow of 340,300 people. Much of this migration flow was between Norwich and the rest of the East of England: 57 per cent came from the rest of the region and 58 per cent of those who left the city, remained in the East of England, indicating a high level of churn. The result was a considerable outflow to the rest of the region, as shown in Figure 1. Beyond the rest of the East of England, Norwich saw a net outflow to London, the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber. Meanwhile it had net inflows from all the other regions with the largest ones being from the South East and the East Midlands. City by city, we can see that the largest inflows into Norwich were from Southend, London, Chatham, and Ipswich. The largest outflows were to Sheffield and Cambridge (see Figure 2). Figure 1: Net regional migration to Norwich, 2009-2015 1000 800 5 1 0 2 600 - 9 0 0 400 2 , 200 moving e l 0 p East o North North South South Wales West e Midlands London West Midlands Yorkshire p East East West -200 f and the o r Humber e -400 b m u N -600 East -800 Region Source: ONS internal migration data, 2009-2015 2 Centre for Cities The Great British Brain Drain: An analysis of migration to and from Norwich • April 2018 Figure 2: Net flow of people from UK cities into Norwich, 2009-2015 Net flow of people from UK cities to Norwich, Newcastle 2009-2015 Sunderland -172 - -101 Middlesbrough -100 - 0 1 - 100 101 - 250 Blackburn Burnley Preston Bradford York Southend (270) Blackpool Leeds Hull Huddersfield Wakefield Wigan Doncaster Liverpool Barnsley Sheffield Birkenhead Manchester Warrington Mansfield Stoke Nottingham Derby Norwich Telford Leicester Peterborough Birmingham Coventry Northampton Cambridge Ipswich Milton Keynes Gloucester Luton Swansea Oxford Basildon Newport Swindon Slough Southend Cardiff Bristol Reading London Chatham Aldershot Crawley Southampton Worthing Brighton Bournemouth Exeter Portsmouth Plymouth Source: ONS internal migration data, 2009-2015 Norwich gains 16 to 21 year olds but loses people in all other age groups When broken down by age, the patterns of migration varied greatly. Figure 3 shows that 16 to 21 year olds dominated migration patterns: this age group accounted for 8 per cent of the population but 27 per cent of inward migration and 16 per cent of outward migration. Those aged 22 to 25 also played an important role in the migration flows. This group accounted for only 6 per cent of the total population but 22 per cent of outward migration. In comparison, 31to 45 year olds accounted for 19 per cent of population and 20 percent of outward migration. This suggests that age is a key factor for mobility and migration, with younger age groups tending to be more mobile than older ones. 3 Centre for Cities The Great British Brain Drain: An analysis of migration to and from Norwich • April 2018 Figure 3: Contribution of each age group to migration and to the city’s population, 2009-2015 30% 25% 20% e l Inward migration p o e into Norwich p f 15% o Outward migration e r from Norwich a h S 10% Total population 5% 0% 15 16-21 22-25 26-30 31-45 46-64 65+ Age Source: ONS internal migration data, 2009-2015 Figure 4: Net flow of people to Norwich by age, 2009-2015 12,000 10,000 5 1 8,000 0 2 - 6,000 9 0 0 2 4,000 2,000 movers, 0 f o 16-21 46-64 65+ Total r -2,000 e 0-15 26-30 31-45 b m -4,000 u N -6,000 22-25 -8,000 Age Source: ONS internal migration data, 2009-2015 Norwich loses degree holders, mainly to London along with the rest of the East of England and the South East While ONS data on migration does not give information on the qualifications of migrants, the 2011 Census provides us with this information for movers between 2010 and 2011. When the data is split into three age groups, 16 to 21, 22 to 20 and 31 to 45 year olds, three distinct trends emerge. 4 Centre for Cities The Great British Brain Drain: An analysis of migration to and from Norwich • April 2018 Figure 5: Net flows of 16 to 21 year olds by region and qualification, 2010-2011 1,800 1,600 1,400 1 1 0 1,200 2 - 0 1 0 1,000 2 , s r e v 800 o m f o 600 w o l f t e 400 N 200 0 North North Yorkshire East West South Wales South London East Net East West and The Midlands Midlands West East -200 Humber Region Degree Level Qualification A-level qualification Lower qualifications Source: Census, 2011 Norwich saw a net inflow of 16-21 year olds from all regions apart from the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber and Wales, with the rest of the East of England making the largest contribution (see Figure 5). Of the 16 to 21 year olds moving into Norwich, 89 per cent had A-levels compared to 55 per cent of those leaving the city. Figure 5 shows the resulting net inflow of these young people. As shown in Figure 6 Norwich lost 22 to 30 year olds. Breaking this down by qualification shows that this was driven by degree holders (see Figure 6). While Norwich experienced small net inflows of degree holders from some regions, this was offset by a large net outflow to the Greater South East. The largest net outflow was to London, followed by the rest of the East of England. This suggests that while Norwich is an attractive place to study, young degree holders prefer looking for work in other places in the Greater South East. There was also a second wave of degree holders leaving Norwich — those aged 31 to 45. But the destinations of this qualified age group looked somewhat different. Norwich gained degree holders from London, the South East and Wales but it lost them to all the other regions. The largest net outflow for this group was to the rest of the East of England (see Figure 7). 5 Centre for Cities The Great British Brain Drain: An analysis of migration to and from Norwich • April 2018 Figure 6: Net flows of 22 to 30 year olds by region and qualification, 2010-2011 200 100 0 North North Yorkshire East West South Wales East West and The Midlands West South 0 - 2011 -100 Midlands 1 Humber East 0 2 , s -200 r e v East o m -300 f o w o -400 l f t London e N -500 -600 -700 Net -800 Region Degree Level Qualification A-level qualification Lower qualifications Source: Census, 2011 Figure 7: Net flows of 31 to 45 year olds by region and qualification, 2010-2011 100 50 0 Wales South London 0-2011 North West South 1 East East North Yorkshire East 0 -50 Midlands Midlands West 2 West and The , s Humber r e -100 v o m f -150 o w o l -200 f t e N -250 -300 East Net -350 Region Degree Level Qualification A-level qualification Lower qualifications Source: Census, 2011 6 Centre for Cities The Great British Brain Drain: An analysis of migration to and from Norwich • April 2018 Looking again at the wider migration data for 2009 and 2015, which allows us to look at the movement between local authorities, the majority of 31 to 45 year olds did not go very far.