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Highlighted Etfs Highlighted Etfs | 17 December 2018 Highlighted ETFs Highlighted ETFs | 17 December 2018 Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management David Perlman, ETF Strategist Americas, [email protected] • This report highlights ETFs that, in our opinion, provide broad representation to or best target UBS CIO's global research recommendations. • In selecting ETFs, we analyze multiple factors including the underlying index methodology, performance, tracking error, liquidity and expenses, and the overall fit with research's recommendations. • Our quarterly report, A guide to investing with ETFs, published on 20 November 2018, includes factsheets for each highlighted ETF. Additions: In this month's House View, we introduced an allocation to long- term US Treasuries that is meant to protect against equity downside risk. Therefore, we are adding the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV). TLT tracks an index of US Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of 20 years or more. EDV tracks an index of US Treasury STRIPS, which are zero-coupon bonds, with maturities between 20 and 30 years. EDV is a new addition to coverage and a profile is on p. 35 of this report. We are also adding the iShares MSCI Global Impact ETF (SDG) to the list. Many of our long-term themes are around social and environmental challenges. SDG tracks an index of companies that seek to address at least one of the world's social and environmental challenges as defined by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Deletions: There were no removals since the last publication of this report. This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Analyst certification and required disclosures begin on page 36. Highlighted ETFs Table of contents Report overview 3 WMR research views 4 Broad US equities 5 US dividends 9 US sectors 10 International developed market equities 14 Emerging market equities 15 Taxable fixed income 17 Municipal bond 21 Commodities and currency 21 Longer-term investment themes 22 Shorter-term investment themes 25 Selection criteria 27 ETF advantages and disadvantages 28 ETF snapshot and risk-return characteristics 29 Standardized performance 32 Prospectus links 34 Profile for new addition to coverage 35 UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 17 December 2018 2 Highlighted ETFs Report overview Fig. 1: ETF coverage universe This report highlights ETFs that, in our opinion, Coverage universe includes 334 ETFs, which account provide broad representation to or best target UBS for 84% of US-listed ETF assets CIO's global research recommendations. It includes traditional ETFs, which track indices that select and weight securities based on market cap. These include ETFs tracking indices such as the S&P 500 Index, MSCI EAFE Index, and Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. The report also includes ETFs that seek to outperform traditional benchmark indices as well as ETFs focused on investment themes favored by CIO. The ETFs included in this report are part of UBS's coverage of ETFs, which is a subset of the broader universe of ETFs eligible for sale at UBS (Fig 1). This report can serve as a resource for discussing and analyzing ETFs. It includes information on the underlying index methodologies and investment strategy guidelines. It will also include risk-return statistics to help evaluate the performance of the investment. This list is only one potential input that can be used in selecting ETFs. It is not a comprehensive list and there can be other ETFs not included that also meet an investor's objective. Additionally, how the ETF's fit within the broader portfolio should be considered. Any changes to the ETFs listed in this report are detailed on the cover of the report. A brief rationale for the addition/removal of an ETF will be provided. Additions/removals from the list do not necessarily mean that an ETF is appropriate/no longer appropriate for a specific client situation. For additional information on the ETFs included in this report, see our most recent ETF Quarterly report, published 20 November 2018. Select risk-return statistics are available on pages 29-31. Standardized Source: UBS. performance as of the most recent quarter end begins on p. 32 and links to the prospectus are available within this report on p. 34. UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 17 December 2018 3 Highlighted ETFs For additional information on UBS CIO's market Fixed income outlook and recommendations as well as an We are underweight US government bonds. Following explanation of CIO's asset class views, refer to the UBS the recent fall of the US 10-year Treasury yield below report. House View: January 2019 2.9%, we closed our overweight position and expect the yield to rise to 3.1% in six months. However, we US equity did introduce an overweight to longer-term US While we are neutral on US equities, we still have an Treasuries as a hedge to our equity overweight. overweight in global equities. US economic activity is Longer-term Treasuries should provide more downside solid, driven by healthy business and consumer protection than the 10-year Treasury. We are neutral sentiment, favorable access to capital, and a strong mortgage-backed securities and TIPS. job market. After the recent market declines, we We are neutral on US investment-grade corporates. believe valuations look appealing and see scope for While total yields of about 4% provide decent carry, valuation expansion. Within US equities, we favor the spread advantage over high grade is small. We see value over growth stocks. Relative valuations for value value in short maturities (1-3 years) given their stocks are at their lowest level relative to growth attractive yield relative to their short duration. stocks since 2006 and value stocks tend to outperform when economic growth is solid and/or We are neutral on US high yield bonds as we see accelerating, which is what we expect over the next limited potential for spread tightening at this stage of several quarters. We are neutral across the size the cycle. The trailing 12-month default rate was segments. We have a six month S&P 500 target of 1.1% in November and we expect it to move 2875 with positive and negative scenarios of 3125 gradually to 2.5% over the next 12 months. and 2325, respectively. We are overweight senior loans as a carve-out Within US sectors, we have a moderate bias for exposure within an investor's high yield bond cyclicals over defensives and are overweight energy allocation. We expect loans to benefit from rising and financials. We are underweight consumer staples, short-term rates and continued low default rates. industrials, and utilities. Within cyclicals, we prefer We are neutral on preferreds but current pricing may sectors that are cheap, have sector-specific drivers, prove an opportunity to invest in favorable preferred and have less direct exposure to trade tensions. Within structures offering attractive yield. Within preferreds, defensives, we avoid sectors with more challenging we favor fixed-to-floating rate preferreds, which can fundamentals (consumer staples) or above-average help mitigate interest rate risk. We favor those with relative valuations (consumer staples and utilities). near-dated calls as well as those with high reset International equity spreads. Within international developed equities, we are From a tactical standpoint we prefer investment grade neutral on the Eurozone. While economic data in the municipal bonds over high yield municipal bonds. We region has weakened, we expect data to improve in still believe a strategic allocation to municipal high 1Q19. Weak spots in emerging markets and yield bonds within a well-diversified fixed income uncertainty around trade may pressure Eurozone portfolio makes sense, but we suggest that investors corporate profits. We are neutral on Japan and favor investment grade bonds. currently recommend not hedging the Yen exposure. Within international fixed income, we are overweight We are neutral on the United Kingdom. Although UK in EM sovereign bonds in USD. EM fundamentals and equities are among the cheapest equity markets in our the attractive yield of around 7% support the coverage universe, uncertainties about the outlook for position. Risks include a further escalation in trade Brexit and commodities keep us neutral. tensions, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, We are overweight emerging market (EM) equities. and idiosyncratic risks leading to a worsening EM equities have stabilized recently and we see the sentiment in emerging markets. We are neutral on EM valuation and earnings momentum as more attractive debt denominated in local currencies. than their developed market counterparts. Risks in the short-term include China hard-landing risk, US dollar strength and geopolitics. UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 17 December 2018 4 Highlighted ETFs List of ETFs by asset category • The index captures over 99% of the US investible equity market capitalization This list highlights ETFs that, in our opinion, provide broad representation to or best target UBS CIO Schwab Fundamental U.S. Broad Market Index WMR's global research recommendations. There will ETF (FNDB, Smart beta, p. 29) be ETFs for each of the market segments in our House • Seeks to track the performance of the Russell View asset allocation models as well as for many of RAFI US Index the investment themes recommended by UBS CIO. • The index re-weights companies included in To help with the selection process,
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