Optimal Investment in Human Capital under Migration Uncertainty Hamed Ghoddusi∗ Baran Siyahhany February 1, 2019 Abstract This paper develops a model of optimal education investment of an agent who has an option to emigrate. We distinguish between local and global human capital in a stochastic dynamic framework of optimal human capital investment. We analyze the time evolution of human capital in the source country and investigate the role of migration opportunities in the accumulation of different types of human capital. The analysis shows that the accumulation of human capital depends crucially on the level of uncertainty and the transferability of human capital across countries. Government subsidies are an important determinant of the composition of different types of human capital and can be crucial in alleviating the brain drain problem. JEL Classification: J24, J61 Keywords: Human capital investment, Immigration, Real options, Skilled labor ∗Corresponding Author: Howe School of Technology Management, Stevens Institute of Technology, NY, USA. Phone: +1 201 216 3512, E-mail:
[email protected] yLITEM, Univ Evry, IMT-BS, Universit´e Paris-Saclay, 91025, Evry, France. E-mail:
[email protected], Phone: +33 1 60 76 43 59 1 1 Introduction How does the emigration of skilled workers affect source countries? Do source coun- tries suffer from brain drain or can they benefit from the emigration of skilled workers? The four decades of research summarized by Docquier and Rapoport (2011) shows that countries can indeed experience beneficial brain drain (BBD) if, for example, there is uncertainty about the prospect of migration (see Mountford 1997, Stark et al.