SHI, QING, Ph.D. the Health Effects of Automobile Fuel Economy Through Improvements in Air Quality

SHI, QING, Ph.D. The Health Effects of Automobile Fuel Economy through improvements in Air Quality. (2017) Directed by Dr. Stephen P. Holland 181 pp. In this dissertation, I evaluate the health effects of the automobile (or vehicle) fuel economy. Automobile fuel economy is regulated by the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards put into effect in 1975 in the United States primarily to reduce the oil consumption and dependency on oil import in response to the Oil Embargo in the 1970s. The health benefit was not thoroughly analyzed in policy analyses of CAFE standards. I hypothesize that better automobile fuel economy results in less mobile source air pollutants such as fine Particulate Matters (PM2.5), Carbon Monoxide (CO), and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), and hence improves air quality, which in turn reduces air pollutant related diseases such as asthma. Thus, CAFE standards have health benefits because CAFE standards increase the on-road vehicle fleet fuel economy. I seek empirical evidence of the health effects of automobile fuel economy through the improvement of air quality. Using vehicle registration and fuel consumption data, air pollutant data, health survey data, and other relevant data in the United States, I apply statistical mediation analysis techniques to assess the variation of asthma with respect to the changes of automobile fuel economy over time through the air pollutants mechanism. The empirical analysis results, under certain assumptions and with some limitation due to the data, support my key hypotheses: 1) there is a clear negative correlation between the automobile fuel economy and mobile source air pollutants over time; 2) there is a negative correlation between the fuel economy and asthma prevalence through the air pollutants mechanism; 3) empirical evidence supports that the air pollutants are the mediators through which automobile fuel economy affects health. This dissertation provides the empirical evidence of the health effects of automobile fuel economy improvement through improvements in air quality. It contributes to the literature and knowledge to the research community in two aspects: first, by identifying the health benefits of automobile fuel economy and an additional support to tighten the automobile fuel economy standards; second, by applying statistical mediation methods in econometric analysis. 2 THE HEALTH EFFECTS OF AUTOMOBILE FUEL ECONOMY THROUGH IMPROVEMENTS IN AIR QUALITY by Qing Shi A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of The Graduate School at The University of North Carolina at Greensboro in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Greensboro 2017 Approved by ________________________________ Committee Chair APPROVAL PAGE This dissertation written by Qing Shi has been approved by the following committee of the Faculty of The Graduate School at The University of North Carolina at Greensboro. Committee Chair __________________________________ Committee Members __________________________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ ___________________________ Date of Acceptance by Committee _________________________ Date of Final Oral Examination ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Eighteen years ago, I landed in this country with the dream of pursuing academic excellence and a doctor degree. I am seeing this dream come true now. I am very grateful to many people - mentors, family and friends – who have helped to make my dream come true. I sincerely thank my dissertation mentor Dr. Stephen P Holland. You have provided indispensable guidance, invaluable advice, and great courage. You meticulously mentored my dissertation research in all aspects and tirelessly reviewed the dissertation manuscripts over many rounds. I would not have been in this stage without your painstaking efforts. I thank previous Director of Graduate Studies and my dissertation committee member Dr. Kenneth A Snowden. You gave guidance at the time I applied for the graduate program, found the greatest dissertation mentors for me, advised and encouraged me during the entire tenure of my graduate study. I could not recall how many times I reached out to you for advice and helps. I would not have survived the graduate study without you. I am also very grateful to committee members Drs. Garth Heutel and Martin S Anderson. The topics of my dissertation originated when I was taking your courses and I was inspired by you to extend beyond. You have given indispensable advice, comments, and critiques to ensure my dissertation are scientifically well justified. iii I thank previous department chair Dr. Stuart D Allen. Along with Dr. Snowden, you gave me such a great opportunity to study in one of the greatest Economic graduate programs in the country. I also owe great debt to my family. In the past 5 and more years, my wife, Yanan Fang, took care of the children and family, in a different state, so that I could dedicate to the graduate study while working full time. My daughters Caroline and Katherine were so kind and understanding even though they talked to me most of the time through online video chat. Many friends gave hands while I was working on the graduate studies who I cannot mention all here. Particularly I thank previous managers and coworkers Steven Magers, and David Gardner at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Bonnie Duncan, Karen Easterling, Yanfang Kong and Jin Liang at the Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc. You have provided indispensable help in reducing my workloads so that I could be more focus on the study. My life was much easier with all of you. At last, to my beloved mother. You had thought of me being a doctoral laureate since I was in my childhood. The degree is the best thing I could have given you in return to your love. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER VIII. INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................1 VIII. AIR POLLUTION FROM AUTOMOBILES: DESCRIPTION AND HEALTH EFFECTS ..................................................................................4 2.1 Description of Pollutants........................................................................4 2.2 Detrimental Health Effects ....................................................................9 VIII. INSTITUTIONAL BACKGROUND AND LEGAL REGULATIONS ......15 3.1 Economic Solutions .............................................................................15 3.1.1 Pigouvian Tax .......................................................................16 3.1.2 Cap-and-Trade Policy ...........................................................18 3.1.3 Intensity Standard and Fuel Economy Standards .................19 3.2 Emission Regulations...........................................................................20 3.2.1 California’s Vehicle Emission Regulations ..........................21 3.2.2 The US Nationwide Emission Control .................................22 3.2.3 Emission Controls in Europe and Other Countries ...............24 3.3 Fuel Economy Standards .....................................................................27 3.3.1 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards .........27 3.3.2 European Fuel Economy Standards ......................................31 3.3.3 Fuel Economy Standards in Other Countries........................32 3.4 Fuel Component Control......................................................................33 3.5 Vehicle Usage Regulations ..................................................................35 3.6 Other Regulations or Economic Instruments .......................................38 v IIIV. LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................41 4.1 Emission Standards ..............................................................................41 4.2 Fuel Economy Standards .....................................................................45 4.3 Health Outcomes Related to Polluted Air ............................................49 IIIV. HYPOTHESIS, EMPIRICAL STRATEGY AND ESTIMATION FRAMEWORK.......................................................................................52 5.1 Motivation and Hypothesis ..................................................................52 5.2 Mediation Analysis and Mediator ........................................................54 5.3 Empirical Estimation Framework ........................................................56 5.4 Restrictions and Potential Problems ....................................................59 IIVI. DATA............................................................................................................62 6.1 Vehicle Data.........................................................................................63 6.1.1 Vehicle Registration Data .....................................................63 6.1.2 Vehicle Mileage Data ...........................................................65 6.1.3 Fuel Sales Data .....................................................................65 6.1.4 Fuel Economy Data ...............................................................66 6.2 Air Quality Data ...................................................................................66 6.3 Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance

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