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COVID-19 Committee Thursday 25 February 2021 Session 5 © Parliamentary copyright. Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body Information on the Scottish Parliament’s copyright policy can be found on the website - www.parliament.scot or by contacting Public Information on 0131 348 5000 Thursday 25 February 2021 CONTENTS Col. NEXT STEPS ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 MINISTERIAL STATEMENT ................................................................................................................................. 33 COVID-19 COMMITTEE 7th Meeting 2021, Session 5 CONVENER *Donald Cameron (Highlands and Islands) (Con) DEPUTY CONVENER Monica Lennon (Central Scotland) (Lab) COMMITTEE MEMBERS *Willie Coffey (Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley) (SNP) *Maurice Corry (West Scotland) (Con) *Annabelle Ewing (Cowdenbeath) (SNP) *John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston) (SNP) *Stuart McMillan (Greenock and Inverclyde) (SNP) *Mark Ruskell (Mid Scotland and Fife) (Green) *Beatrice Wishart (Shetland Islands) (LD) *attended THE FOLLOWING ALSO PARTICIPATED: Professor Michael Baker MNZM (University of Otago, Wellington) Professor Siân Griffiths OBE (Chinese University of Hong Kong) Professor Jason Leitch (Scottish Government) Dominic Munro (Scottish Government) Michael Russell (Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, Europe and External Affairs) David Stewart (Highlands and Islands) (Lab) (Committee Substitute) Professor Mark Woolhouse OBE (University of Edinburgh) CLERK TO THE COMMITTEE Sigrid Robinson LOCATION Virtual Meeting 1 25 FEBRUARY 2021 2 There are two other important points to make Scottish Parliament about the vaccination programme. The first point is that the coverage is very good. The take-up of the COVID-19 Committee vaccine has been very high—in the most vulnerable groups that have been vaccinated to Thursday 25 February 2021 date, the take-up rate as a percentage is well into the high 90s. A few weeks ago, when the vaccination roll-out programme started, there was [The Convener opened the meeting at 09:00] concern that take-up might be a lot lower, so that Next Steps is very good news indeed. Turning to the second point, the other good The Convener (Donald Cameron): Good news that has come through in the past few weeks morning, and welcome to the COVID-19 concerns the performance of the vaccine. Only Committee’s seventh meeting in 2021. We have this week, my colleagues at the University of received apologies from Monica Lennon MSP, and Edinburgh published a paper on the efficacy of the David Stewart MSP is joining us as a substitute; I Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines in Scotland. The welcome him to the meeting. numbers are still small, but it looks as if the vaccines provide about 80 per cent protection in This morning, the committee will take evidence terms of keeping people out of hospital, which is from three witnesses on Covid-19: next steps. I very good news. All the indicators are very welcome Professor Michael Baker MNZM, who is positive. professor of epidemiology at the University of Otago, Wellington; Professor Siân Griffiths OBE, As we all know, the Scottish Government has a who is emeritus professor at the Chinese policy of cautious relaxation, which is driven by University of Hong Kong; and Professor Mark data. My interpretation of that position is that the Woolhouse, who is chair of infectious disease data are looking very good, so I hope that it will be epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh. possible to relax somewhat ahead of the schedule that we might have had in mind a few weeks ago. I am advised that Professor Baker will be slightly The signs are very positive. late to the meeting, for technical reasons, but in any event we will commence. We have a lot to Your question implies consideration of where we cover this morning, so we move straight to are going to end up from here. I will give two brief questions. I note that Professor Griffiths needs to comments on that. First, the common goal—there leave the meeting by 10 am. has been a lot of discussion on this in the epidemiology community in the United Kingdom— Members will have eight minutes each to ask is that by September, we would like to be in a questions of witnesses so, as ever, I ask that we position in which we are very confident that winter keep our questions and answers as concise as 2021-22 will be a lot better than the winter that we possible. If there is time for supplementary are going through now. There is a lot of work to be questions, I will indicate that, once all members done between now and September to ensure that have had a chance to ask their questions. If that is the case. members can say to whom they are directing their questions, it will assist the broadcasting team. I Secondly, we are fairly clear—as the chief ask witnesses to wait a moment for their medical officer for England and many other microphone to be switched on before speaking. commentators have said—that, during winter next year, we will be living with some level of Covid-19. I will ask the first question. What are your views We cannot yet say with certainty how good or bad on the various strategies that are available to deal the situation will be, but there will be Covid-19 in with Covid-19? Which strategy is best for the UK next winter. I will stop there, but I can go Scotland, and how does it fit in with wider on in more detail if you wish. international comparators? I ask Professor Woolhouse to start. The Convener: Thank you for that. I ask the same question of our other witnesses, starting with Professor Mark Woolhouse OBE (University Professor Griffiths. of Edinburgh): Thank you, convener—that is a very broad question to start with. The current Professor Siân Griffiths OBE (Chinese situation is that the epidemic appears to be in University of Hong Kong): I thank the committee decline in Scotland. The numbers of cases, for inviting me to the meeting. I concur with hospitalisations and deaths are coming down. The everything that Professor Woolhouse said. vaccine roll-out is going extremely well; the Progress across the UK, and in Scotland in numbers of those who have been vaccinated have particular, has been especially good in terms of exceeded most people’s expectations of a few vaccine uptake. In addition, we have learned some weeks ago. 3 25 FEBRUARY 2021 4 lessons, such as the need to focus on care Scotland, that you were very close to achieving homes. the same goal at certain points. Nonetheless, I will raise a few additional points. The essence of that approach is to aim to have First, we need a global approach. Yesterday, the no Covid transmission in the community, and New first vaccines were sent to Ghana as part of the Zealand has used three broad approaches to COVAX programme, which is really important. We achieve that. The first involves managing borders, could have less Covid in our country, but if Covid with very tight quarantine and testing. We then use remains in other parts of the world, we will not measures to decrease transmission at a prevent the spread of, or eliminate, the disease. population level through physical distancing, the We have to have a global perspective. use of lockdowns in a short, decisive way and, more recently, mask use. Secondly, we need to continue to look at inequalities. Around the world, and across the UK, The third major strategy has been testing and we have seen that areas of poverty and tracing. We initially used quite an intense deprivation, and areas with certain groups, such lockdown for five weeks, followed by a less as ethnic minority groups, have experienced intense lockdown for couple of weeks, and we higher rates of infection and hospital admissions. emerged into a virus-free country. That gave us The figures for Scotland that Professor Woolhouse time to build up our testing and contact tracing quoted are reassuring, in the sense that the system. We now get occasional incursions of the inequalities gap does not appear to be so large in virus, mainly through border failures, and we can Scotland, but that does not mean that we can manage those quite effectively with testing and relax. If we are going to try—[Inaudible]—we need contact tracing. Another major strategy is to have to continue to think about the structural in place a social safety net to support the most inequalities, and a whole set of issues such as vulnerable groups, who are affected mainly as a ways of working, occupations, housing and diet. result of the intervention itself. We need to remember that Covid is not just a The core essence of our approach is the disease—it is part of a broader social approach unifying goal of having no transmission in the that we need to adopt for the future. community. We are now starting to roll out Finally, if we are going to contain Covid in the vaccines. We are a bit behind the UK on that, but winter, we need an excellent test and trace vaccines are now being used selectively for border programme in every country, and in the UK and workers to improve border biosecurity. Scotland in particular. We need to be able to The Convener: I see that Professor Woolhouse identify cases; do the genomic sequencing, which wants to come in. Do you have any observations we in the UK are particularly good at, through the on that approach and how it applies to Scotland in COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium; and ensure particular? that, as soon as cases start to emerge, there is isolation, contact tracing, quarantine and an Professor Woolhouse: Yes, I do. I just want to understanding of where the disease might have correct one slight misinterpretation in what was spread so that we can stop the chain of said.

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