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INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT Andre Viljoen flanked by Pekka Vauramo (left) and Rob Gurney 12.6% Growth in Chinese domestic passenger traffic over first four months of 2018 9.6% Increase in seat capacity on Chinese routes this June

Airline capacity between China and North America has more than doubled since 2013

Chinese operate first to rise with 149 freighters, up from connect 135 one year ago has signed as the first with three of the operators, while mal membership,” he says. partner for Oneworld’s new affiliate discussions are underway with BA Oneworld board chairman and 3,201 membership Connect programme. to establish a bilateral relationship. chief Pekka Vauramo, says The programme will see Fiji Air- Fiji Airways chief executive the maturity of the alliance means it Commercial in ways offer passengers with One- Andre Viljoen says the Connect will focus on niche expansion op- service with Chinese world Emerald and Sapphire status programme is a better fit for smaller portunities. “Oneworld will target carriers, over 300 more priority services, while additional carriers, compared to the costs and as full members large airlines that than a year ago benefits will be available on servic- complexity that full alliance mem- have a significant presence in the es its sponsoring partners , bership would bring. “The whole alliance’s prime target market, pro- Sources: IATA, Flight Fleets , idea of the connect programme is viding connections between the Analyzer, FlightGlobal and . It codeshares that it is a lot cheaper than the nor- world’s leading business centres.” schedules data

Inside this issue

Hawaiian ready for new era...... …………………….…3 Cathay’s Hogg targets profit return……………………….14 Meet the darlings of the industry……...... …………………..4 How the new IATA board lines up…………………………16 Ethiopian sets sights on fleet vision…………………………9 What new rules in China means for long-haul…………….18 Airbus and Boeing await new Qantas dawn………………10 Gulf majors take new shape………………………………..22

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American watchful on Gulf deals American Airlines chief Doug Parker believes it is too early to tell if the recent settlements of air services disputes between the USA and Qatar and United Arab will be positive for US carriers. He told reporters at the AGM that “we need to see more”. But he also expressed support for the US government’s efforts. “We’re very pleased with the result of the talks between the US government and the UAE and Qatar,” he says. “We are grateful for what the US gov- ernment was able to accomplish there.” American and the other US major carriers had campaigned strongly for the government to limit the growth of carriers, most of which operate under open skies arrangements, amid a long-running dispute over alleged subsidies. In particular, they opposed the granting of fifth-freedom rights to , of which only Emirates operates such routes. All existing rights, including fifth-freedom, remain in place. But Parker notes: “We were pleased with what we saw from the agreements which include, not commitments but statements, from those carriers that they don’t have any intention to fly fifth-freedom routes, and that

BillyPix gives us comfort.” Hawaiian new fleet finding its feet Airline boss sees A321neos performing well despite delays, though replacing 717s may prove more challenging

ew chief the carrier in March, has high NPeter Ingram points to the praise for the twin-engined type. good performance of its Airbus “We fly them high-cycle, with six A321neos and still expects to million passengers annually, up to have 11 of the type in its fleet by 15-16 cycles a day over short dis- the end of the year, tances. The 717 is great for that “We’ve had delays that pushed because it has good cycle costs back deliveries in the early part of from an engine perspective, a du- the year, but we expect to be large- rable airframe, and can withstand ly caught up by the end of the the rigours of going up and down summer,” he says. Deliveries of all day long for many years.” Pratt & Whitney PW1000G-pow- The challenge is that Boeing ered A320 family jet have suffered and Airbus have tended to focus delays this year owing to durabili- on longer range in their 737 and ty issues and other problems with A320 products. Turboprops do the new engine. not work for the airline because “It is unfortunate from the point they lack sufficient seat capacity of not having the aircraft available and Hawaiian operates too many for our peak summer period,” he frequencies. “At some point we’ll says. “But the message we’ve been have to replace them, but it will be telling the team internally is that a challenge because they’re not this is an airplane we’ll have for building airplanes exactly for that 25 years.” He says the type, which mission anymore,” he says. will replace its Boeing 767s, has The Bombardier CSeries or Em-

performed as expected, and will BillyPix braer E2 E-Jet could fit the bill, but allow it to address mainland USA Ingram: Delays unfortunate but A321neos will fly for 25 years Ingram wants to learn more about markets that had insufficient de- how their geared turbofan engines mand for widebodies. Ultimately fleet by the end of 2019. with 128 seats and used for short perform in high cycle operations. Hawaiian will operate 18 A321s. A longer-term challenge will be island hopping routes of 100- Both jets are powered by variants All of the carrier’s seven 767- the replacement of Hawaiian’s 20 250nm (185km-463km). of the PW1000 that powers the 300ERs will exit the Hawaiian Boeing 717s, which are equipped Ingram, who took the helm of carrier’s A321neos. ■

4 June 2018 | Flight Airline Business | 3 reception

Catching up: (left- right) Beatrice Lim, Angela Gittens and Janice Antonson

Darlings of the industry Last night the great and the good of the airline business enjoyed a lively start to this year’s AGM overlooking Darling Habour in Sydney, as the Welcome Reception sponsored by Airbus kicked into life. Aptly for an industry continuing to enjoy its most sustained run of profits, spirits were high as the DJ played tunes into the night

4 | Flight Airline Business | 4 June 2018 Wizards of Oz: Airline and industry leaders alike were enjoying themselves last night at the opening reception, tasting local delights and shooting the breeze with friends and colleagues before the serious busi- ness begins

4 June 2018 | Flight Airline Business | 5 reception

Fun networking: delegates met against the backdrop of Darling Harbour

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Amsterdam • • Calgary • Cancún • Cologne • • Dublin • Edmonton • • Guadalajara • • Kelowna • -Gatwick • London-Heathrow • Los Cabos • • Paris • Puerto Vallarta • Reykjavík • Seoul • • Shenzhen • Taipei • • Victoria news

Gebremariam: Embarking on readies Vision 2030 after the path for outgrowing plan NDC move Global distribution platform Sabre plans to offer more New Distribution Channel (NDC) functionality in 2018. “Intelligent retailing that lever- ages Sabre’s data, depth and in- dustry leadership will bring value to airlines and agencies, and cus- tomers will have the ability to

BillyPix offer personalised shopping ex- periences similar to world-class retailers in other industries,” says Sabre in a statement. Ethiopian widens its vision The announcement of new functionality follows Sabre’s Carrier poised to decide on regional aircraft aircraft order as targets fleet growth to 150 attainment of NDC 3 functionality in February. This thiopian Airlines expects to Max 8s, four 777 Freighters, two ing “the summer”, while the re- recognised Sabre’s NDC Eoperate more than 150 air- 787-9s, and 12 Bombardier Q400s. launch of Zambia Airways is set to capabilities, including the ability craft across its group fleet under In addition to the new aircraft, follow in October. That followed to perform end-to-end offers its ‘Vision 2030’ strategic plan. the plan calls for more hubs and an agreement earlier this year to and order fulfillment and As the fast-growing Star Alli- airlines to be added to its stable, invest in the relaunched Zambian servicing – through both direct ance carrier prepares to receive its transporting more passengers, and operation. It, together with partner and indirect channels. 100th aircraft this month, chief adding new destinations. ASKY, also this year agreed a part- At the recent Technology & executive Tewolde Gebremariam “Vision 2030 was initiated as nership with Guinea Airlines, Innovation in Airline Distribution says it is in the final stages of se- we had exceeded the targets for which is in the process of obtain- conference in , Yanik lecting either Bombardier CS100s Vision 2025,” he says. “So we had ing its AOC. Hoyles, director of the New Dis- or Embraer E190-E2s for an order to revise our targets upwards, and The airlines will start off with tribution Channel at IATA, noted of 10-20 aircraft. we’d also wanted to revise some up to three aircraft in the initial NDC allows airlines to provide Flight Fleets Analyzer shows of the strategic direction.” stage, using both Q400s and 737s. the same range of offerings that, Ethiopian has more than 60 It is supporting several planned Initial talks have also been held through online agents and aircraft on order, consisting of 15 airline launches in the region in- on esablishing an airline in the and GDSs as their own websites. -900s, 30 cluding one in Mozambique dur- Democratic Republic of Congo. ■

IATA pushes Europe for alternative fuels gains

IATA is urging the European the European Council agreement. things stand at the moment,” he fuels in Europe,” he says. Council and Commission to back “We think that’s a really impor- says. “We hope there will be final Gill notes that since the first bio- incentives for production of alter- tant development because it agreement on the final version of fuels flight in 2008 there have been native fuels for aviation as part of would provide the right signal to the directive by the middle of this over 100,000 commercial flights an imminent directive on renewa- the market for more production month, and we are urging the using some blend of alternative ble energy. and would provide a clear incen- Council and Commission to agree fuel. “We think with the right policy The European Parliament has tive for national governments to to this specific incentive included in environment and the right drivers adopted its position on the renew- adopt national policies to promote the draft version.” from government, we could have able energy directive, which includ- alternative fuels for aviation,” ex- He notes incentives have helped by 2025, a billion passengers hav- ed specific incentives for develop- plains Michael Gill, director avia- develop production of alternative ing flown on an aircraft which has ing their use in aviation which tion environment at IATA and exec- fuels for aviation in the USA. used some form of blended biofu- essentially give it twice as much utive director of ATAG. “There’s not much happening in els. So I think we are really at a tip- credit against national targets as al- “Our concern is it gets caught Europe and what’s being proposed ping point. ternative fuels in other sectors. The up in the political negotiations be- in the new directive is exactly the “We have come a very long way text, which followed European tween the Parliament, Council and kind of policy incentive that would in only 10 years, but its now about Commission proposals, now awaits Commission, and that’s where encourage more production of the bringing it to the next level.”

4 June 2018 | Flight Airline Business | 9 news

ATR targets China market breakthrough

ATR has enjoyed strong suc- cess in the -Pacific, but has yet to make serious in- roads into China. The turbo- prop maker feels this could be about to change. Wang Qi heads China sales for ATR, and is quick to list numbers and statistics that underlie ATR’s view that the China market, where no ATRs and few turboprops Schulz: Long-range now operate, is eminently versions of A350-900 worth pursuing. This is de- and -1000 are options

spite the proliferation of high- BillyPix speed rail in the country, often the death knell for short-range air transport. He notes that 84% of Rivals pitching long-range flights in China are regional services below 600km, but use jets with over 100 seats. designs for Qantas sunrise This despite limited traffic and less than impressive load Airbus and Boeing working on capability for Sydney to London and New York non-stop factors. The dynamic is ena- bled largely through local irbus and Boeing are contin- cause that is what is done today and central government sub- Auing to engage with Qantas with Airlines, and we sidies, and ignores the reality as the carrier works to set out its also look at what we can do with of aircraft economics. requirements for an aircraft that the -1000.” The company has sales would fly non-stop from Sydney He also hints that there may prospects in China, and plans to London and New York. some “slight modifications” to the to bring an ATR to the Zhuhai Dubbed Project Sunrise, the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines air show in November. Wang Oneworld carrier has indicated it for the ultra-long-haul mission. is working with Shaanxi Tianju intends to place an order in 2019 On the Boeing side, its vice- Investment, which signed an for aircraft that could deliver from president of marketing Randy Tin- LOI for 10 ATR 42s at the 2023 onwards. In March, it seth, says it too is “working close- Paris air show. Wang says that launched nonstop services from ly” with Qantas. this potential deal probably Perth to London using Boeing “In general, we’re in a pretty will not yield 10 firm orders, 787-9s that are configured with good place because when you however, as the investment only 236 seats. look at the 777, when you look at

climate is “challenging.” Airbus chief commercial officer BillyPix the 787, we have the longest Another LOI signed at Eric Schulz says that the Australi- range, most capable airplanes in

Paris involved Xuzhou Han- an carrier is undergoing in an “it- BillyPix the market today,” says Tinseth. tong Aviaton for three ATR erative process” to establish the Tinseth: Boeing in pretty good He , highlighting Qantas’ deploy- 42s. Xuzhou is located in Chi- boundaries for what it will require place to meet requirements ment of the 787-9 to open its na’s prosperous eastern sea- the jet to do. Perth-London route. board. Wang suggests this “They have a bit of homework US east coast and Europe with a Boeing would address this with potential deal has more to do to do before they will be able to get full passenger load. the 777-8, an aircraft due to enter with the city’s plans to be- to a final RFP, which will really Schulz admits however that it service in 2022. come an aviation hub per- define what they want,” he says. is not locked on the -900ULR as its “Our engineering team loves forming MRO and passen- Airbus and Boeing are looking sole offering for the Project Sun- challenges, so they’re looking at ger-to-freighter conversion to optimise their A350-900ULR rise requirement. ways to address [Project Sun- work. There are also four or and 777-8 to allow them to meet “All bets are open, we are look- rise],” he says. “I like where we five other prospects. Qantas’s desire of flying nonstop ing at both airplanes. We know are today in terms of our wide- from ’s east coast to the what we can do with the -900, be- body capabilities.”

10 | Flight Airline Business | 4 June 2018 #travelexperience

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Scrutinise : A4ANZ

commensurate increase in ser- vice quality. Australia does not regulate air- port charges, but the Australian Competition and Consumer Com- mission each year produces a monitoring report that tracks the profits and service quality of the major federally-leased airports. Unlike other nations, Austral- ia’s major cities are mostly served by only one , Campbel Tom all of which were privatised in the

A4ANZ 1990s and early 2000s. Vauramo exit The region’s airline chiefs gathered to call for greater oversight While stopping short of calling Finnair is seeking a new chief for price regulation, the lobby executive after Pekka Vauramo, obby group Airlines for Aus- A4ANZ has released a report group is calling for mechanisms who has led the carrier for five L tralia and that says that Australia’s priva- that would “result in genuine years, opted to step down. (A4ANZ) has called for airports tised airports have taken advan- commercial negotiations between Vauramo is to leave the air- to face regulatory scrutiny to stop tage of the relatively loose regula- airlines and airports to effect fair line by November this year. them from using monopoly posi- tory settings to increase costs to outcomes for airport users, in a He is set to join Metso, a spe- tions to earn excessive profits. passengers and airlines without a negotiate-arbitrate model.” ■ cialist in equipment and ser- vices supply to the mining industry. Vauramo has previous hina is giving foreign airlines experience in the mining sector. Cuntil 25 July to change how China sets clock ticking Finnair board chairman Jouko they refer to Hong Kong, Macau Karvinen says Vauramo has tak- and Taiwan on their websites en the “personal decision” to and promotional material. on classification action pursue “another challenge”. In a statement, the Civil Avia- carriers have promised to make business in China,” it states. Karvinen credits Vauramo tion Administration of China says changes, but have asked for an ex- The White House had earlier with overseeing a “remarkable it has written to 44 airlines about tension due to technical reasons. this month described China’s move transformation” at the carrier, the violation of the One-China “The CAAC will pay close at- as “Orwellian nonsense” and part returning it to profitability and policy. Eighteen airlines have tention to the rectification to be of a growing trend by the Chinese introducing a new long-haul complied and made changes by made by these airlines, so as to en- Communist Party to impose its po- fleet as it took delivery of the original 25 May deadline. sure the rights of foreign airlines litical views on American citizens Airbus A350s. It adds that the remaining 26 to carry out passenger and and private companies. ■ United picks female chair

he board of United Conti- Former FAA administrator T nental has named Jane Garvey takes over the board of Garvey its new non-executive United Continental, which is the chairperson, following the de- parent of , at a time parture of Robert Milton. of management upheaval. Chief fi- Garvey is the first female chair of nancial officer Andrew Levy left United Continental’s board, and the unexpectedly to pursue what he only female chair among the nine called “several exciting opportuni- large publicly-listed US airlines. ties” earlier in May, and Milton The move comes on the heels of stepped down as chair after just

several high-profile female execu- two years in the role. Bipartisan Policy Center tive and board appointments at United has faced a number of Garvey’s appointment comes amid management upheaval at United and JetBlue Air- public crises over the past two ways, moves that are notable due years, the most prominent being April 2017. experience as both a leader and to the dominance of male execu- the forced removal of a passenger “Jane steps into this critical pioneer in our industry,” says tives in the US airline industry. from a United Express flight in role bringing with her decades of United chief Oscar Munoz. ■

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Cathay eyes long game

Chief executive Rupert Hogg is tapping the Hong Kong carrier’s new-generation fleet to drive fresh route opportunities as part of wide-ranging measures aimed at restoring its fortunes after heavy losses

athay Pacific is target- ing a return to profit in 2019, responsibility for which rests on the shouldersC of chief executive Rupert Hogg as he navigates the airline through a three-year trans- formation programme. That will be achieved by driv- ing up passenger and cargo vol- umes, gaining new sources of rev- enue, and raising productivity by tapping data and its new genera- tion of fuel-efficient jets, Hogg tells FlightGlobal in an interview in Singapore. “A year in, I’m pleased with the progress we’ve made,” he says. “One thing we’ve accepted early on is that there’s no one silver bul-

let. There are a lot of things we Cathay Pacific have to do, big and small, and we Hogg took the helm in April 2017, tasked with carrying out the Oneworld’s carrier’s restructuring plan track them.” upgauge to the larger type. ence that we try and accentuate is external factors that have drawn NEXT STEPS Another priority is to focus on our people.” us to the conclusion that now is Top of Cathay’s transformation the customer, using surveys and The Oneworld carrier has been the time to make the big change in agenda, which kicked off in 2017, data to understand what they criticised for being slow to our business, and I guess the big- was its first reorganisation in 20 want and need. This will see respond to the challengers that gest of those is that there is a lot years, aimed at achieving a leaner, Cathay roll out a new service have been knocking on its door. It more competition, a lot better simpler structure. This led to the design on its long-haul flights has been hit hard by mainland competition, and the competition cutting of around 600 jobs, and the from the second half of the year. Chinese carriers’ push to launch is growing very fast,” says the air- axing of then-chief executive Ivan “The market is growing but more direct long-haul services, line chief. Chu, who had been at the helm for what’s happened in the last cou- Gulf carriers that have lured cus- Describing himself as an opti- only three years. ple of years is that capacity grew tomers with attractive prices and mist by nature, Hogg believes Now the airline is working to faster than the market. There are products, and the growing num- that the rising competition does drive revenue by launching direct some signs that growth rates from ber of low-cost carriers that have not spell disaster for Cathay long-haul services to points Chinese carriers and other carri- chipped away at its customer base Pacific, however. unserved from Hong Kong. That is ers are slowing down. But not- within Asia. “When people look at the future fuelled by the delivery of 22 Air- withstanding that, customers of aviation and the competitive A350-900s over the past two always have a choice and we OPTIMISM PERSISTS environment from Asia, they tend years, which Cathay has used to have to make sure we are provid- All of these, coupled with mis- to look at it as a zero-sum game, start services to , Copen- ing what they perceive to be steps in its fuel hedges, drove the that one person wins and another hagen, Brussels, Dublin, Zurich value and an experience that they group to an operating loss of must lose,” he states. “But if you and . are prepared to select above their HK$1.45 billion ($185 million) in look at the size of the market, it’s In June, it will also take its first other options, and hopefully pay 2017, nearly triple the HK$525 on a scale that the world has never A350-1000, using the jet to launch a premium for it,” says Hogg. million loss in the previous year. seen before.” ■ its longest nonstop flight from “That’s why we concentrate At a net level, the carrier’s loss Hong Kong to Washington DC. first on the network, then on the ballooned to HK$1.26 billion, its Editor’s note: This is an extract The 334-seat aircraft will also young fleet as a platform, then we largest in nine years, and the first from a wider interview with allow Cathay to serve points on spend a lot of time designing the back-to-back loss in the airline’s Rupert Hogg that will be pub- the US east coast and on A350-900 seats, interior and the cabin ambi- 72-year history. lished in a future issue of Flight routes that are ready for an ence. But ultimately, the differ- “Obviously there is a series of Airline Business

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Iata’s leaders This year’s board of governors gathered yesterday for their annual pre-AGM meeting

Back row (standing): Tewolde Gebremariam, chief executive, ; Sebastian Mikosz, chief executive, Airways; Pieter Elbers, chief executive, KLM; Vitaly Savelyev, chief executive, ; Enrique Cueto, chief executive, LATAM; Oscar Munoz, chief executive, United Airlines; Tan Wangeng, president and chief executive, China Southern;

16 | Flight Airline Business | 4 June 2018 BillyPix

Harry Hohmeister, chairman, ; Safwat Mosallam, chairman and chief executive, EgyptAir; Pedro Heilbron, chief executive, ; Mohamad El-Hout, chairman and director general, Middle East Airlines; Alexandre de Juniac, director general, IATA; Alan Joyce, chief executive, Qantas; Doug Parker, chief executive, American Airlines; Rupert Hogg, chief executive, Cathay Pacific; Robin Hayes, chief executive, JetBlue; Rickard Gustafson, chief executive, SAS Front row (seated): Liu Shaoyong, chairman, China Eastern; Calin Rovinescu, chief executive, ; Saleh Bin Nasser Al-Jasser, director general, ; Naresh Goyal, chairman, ; Goh Choon Phong, chief executive, ; , group chief executive, ; Carsten Spohr, chief executive, Group; Willie Walsh, chief executive, IAG; Christine Ourmieres-Widener, chief executive,

4 June 2018 | Flight Airline Business | 17 CHINA

hina’s aviation regulator in May pledged to ease its policy of allowing only one operator on Chinese chance C each long-haul route, a significant change that could further inten- Regulator’s decision to end “one long-haul route, one airline” policy on international sify competition among Chinese routes this winter signals likely step change in pace of local carriers’ global expansion carriers and foreign rivals. The Administra- tion of China (CAAC) says the changes, effective 1 October, are necessary, as China’s international air transport market enters a new growth phase, and to enhance the competitiveness of the country’s international gateways. The revised policy will also aim to build Beijing into one of the world’s largest aviation hubs, with the opening of the city’s second airport in Daxing next year. China first implemented the “one long-haul route, one airline” policy in 2009, largely to prevent Chinese carriers from competing too aggressively on the same sec- tors and killing profitability in the process. Since the announcement of a

second airport in Beijing, how- REX/Shutterstock ever, anchor operators China China Southern increased international capacity fastest among the three state-owned carriers in 2017 Southern Airlines and China East- ern Airlines have been pushing to carriers launched 658 interna- Those between China and North this was at the expense of yields, expand their international net- tional routes over the last three America showed the largest as they sought to capitalise on the work out of the country’s capital, years, 151 of which are long-haul. incline, jumping from 31.7 billion country’s growing demand for fur- thus far dominated by . FlightGlobal schedules data in 2012 to 74.5 billion in 2017. ther as disposable shows that ASKs from China to Annual reports show that the incomes rise. EASING RESTRICTIONS North America, Europe and Aus- big four Chinese airlines all was most With the changes, airlines will tralasia have increased consist- increased capacity on interna- aggressive, albeit coming from a face no restrictions flying to desti- ently over the past five years. tional routes last year, although smaller base, raising international nations that have at least a partial ASKs two-thirds last year to 32.8 open skies agreement with China. billion. Of the three state-owned Otherwise, those seeking to oper- International expansion widely spread carriers, ate to the Americas, Europe Analysis of FlightGlobal sched- from Beijing; Air China and China posted the largest hike of 14%, fol- (excluding Russia), and ules data shows that Chinese Eastern added Beijing services to lowed by China Eastern at 11% Africa will need to meet some carriers have added 16 routes San Jose and respective- and Air China at 8%. conditions before they are able to from China to North America ly, and there were no additional China Southern saw the largest compete with another local opera- and more than 30 to Europe US flights from . yield decline on international tor. These include China’s market over the last three years. The large hubs played a bigger routes at 7.5% to CNY0.37 ($0.06), share on the route against foreign Over half the US flights have part in European expansion. Nine followed by Air China with a 5% airlines, as well as consumer inter- been new routes to , new European routes have been slip to CNY0.41 and China East- est on the route, how it helps with linking eight more Chinese cities added from Beijing in the last ern with a 0.2% decline to hub development, resource allo- to the US west coast. That adds to three years, seven from Shanghai CNY0.47. Hainan Airlines did not cation and service quality. the four existing services from and two from Guangzhou. provide a yield figure, but is likely It is not clear exactly how much Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing and Destinations have been more to have been on a similar trajec- the changes will affect the status Shanghai, which already connect- mixed as well, with new Chinese tory to its peers. quo, but analysts welcome the ed to Los Angeles. connections spanning more than “We expect passenger yields to development. They say it will give The majority of US routes 20 European airports. Six of the remain under pressure on routes Chinese carriers greater route added in the last year were not services, including ’s in- to Australia/New Zealand and access and flexibility, as well as from the major Chinese hubs. ternational debut, serve North America. However the year- enhance competition among carri- Only Hainan Airlines, with its Las and five serve London, including to-year decline is expected to ers and hubs alike. Vegas service, added US flights Tianjin Airline’s Gatwick service. moderate as Chinese carriers are CAAC data shows that Chinese no longer expanding as aggres- ❯❯

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© 2018 Honeywell International. All rights reserved. CHINA

❯❯ sively as they have been in the ways will need to build on their become more competitive with and there are still plenty of oppor- past three years,” says Corrine unique advantages to drive foreign airlines, rather than have tunities for growth on interna- Png, chief of transport at equity improvements in service quality Beijing generally only served by tional routes. As such we believe research firm Crucial Perspective. and their overall attractiveness. Air China, Shanghai by China the traffic pie is big enough to Notably, the airlines have also “Chinese airlines will also look Eastern and so forth,” she adds. accommodate several Chinese air- been launching long-haul services to serve destinations from multi- Longer term, Png says: “China’s lines. Air China and China East- from secondary Chinese cities, ple Chinese hubs… they will air travel penetration remains low ern look well-positioned.” ■ leaving industry observers to pon- der the demand and yields on these routes, which are often sub- Secondary airports play role in linking UK to mainland China sidised by the municipal govern- Fresh efforts are under way to ments. Examples include Xiamen widen scheduled connections Airlines’ Qingdao-Los Angeles from the Chinese mainland to the service and ’ UK as China Southern’s new Wu- Shenyang-Vancouver route. han-London Heathrow service is Association of Asia-Pacific Air- followed by Air China’s attempt to lines director general Andrew link the UK with Chengdu. Herdman notes this was in part Direct flights between the UK driven by congestion at China’s and mainland China have doubled major hubs. since 2011. At that point only Brit-

“Initially it was from the main ish Airways, , Air REX/Shutterstock hubs to the main destinations China and China Eastern flew be- BA opened Chengdu in 2013 but dropped the route early in 2017 across the Pacific into the [United] tween the countries, all linking States and strengthening their London Heathrow to either Beijing easing of visa restrictions, Walsh routes to Europe and North Amer- European networks,” Herdman and Shanghai. also suggested the lower levels of ica, even with their investment in says. “The trouble is the big hubs Air China’s Chengdu-Gatwick premium traffic in some emerging product, is to secure business pas- are so congested in terms of slots flights will mark the 12th new ser- markets could warrant differently sengers in these countries against you are seeing a lot of secondary vice introduced since 2011. But configured aircraft. strong competitors and brands. cities linking to international des- three of those services have al- Air China though is now giving China Southern began serving tinations and the economics of ready been dropped. Hainan Air- the route a go itself, operating to Wuhan from London Heathrow some of those are questionable.” lines flew briefly from Beijing to London Gatwick. It will launch the thrice-weekly at the end of May Birmingham, Air China dropped service in July. using -200s. But while MORE COMPETITION its London Stansted service from “A Chinese operator faces a dif- the three-class layout includes a With the easing of the “one airline, Beijing, and British Airways was ferent challenge/opportunity,” premium-economy section, UK one long-haul route” policy, it the first to try a connection to notes Association of Asia-Pacific commercial manager Nick New- may be that airlines could drop Chengdu from the UK. Airlines director general Andrew man says the carrier will effectively some tier-two routes in favour of BA began a Heathrow-Cheng- Herdman. “They can draw traffic be selling the seats under econo- more popular city pairings. This du service in 2013 but dropped it from the rest of China and support my-class fares. He says the primary could result in a fare war that early in 2017 saying it was not the route with a variety of revenue reason for this decision relates to could exacerbate the yield commercially viable. Speaking in sources. What’s driving the route is the absence of a premium-econo- decline. But the challenge of con- 2016 about the decision to pull Chinese tourists travelling out- my cabin on board onward con- straints at China’s major tier-one the route, the chief executive of bound. So Chinese carriers are nections, particularly to Australia. airports remains. British Airways parent IAG, Willie maybe able to make a go of some “The focus is to get into the The opening of the new airport Walsh, said that while premium of these secondary routes given market,” says Newman, and this in Beijing changes the dynamic in demand was expected to be light, the market shifting towards Chi- means the carrier is prepared to that market. While Beijing-based it had been exacerbated by IAG nese outbound as a driver.” sacrifice margins on the premium- Air China will no doubt face more struggling to attract Chinese tour But he notes the challenge for economy cabin, and keep fare lev- competition, not all is lost, says groups. Alongside calling for the Chinese carriers on long-haul els down, in order to attract great- Png. She believes that China East- er custom. New UK-China flights since 2011 ern’s and China Southern’s move After launching Wuhan flights, to the new airport will also free up Airline UK airport China airport Launched the carrier is looking at opening a room for the to expand Air China London Gatwick Chengdu 2018* Sanya route from Heathrow. The and raise its efficiency at Beijing China Southern Airlines London Heathrow Guangzhou 2012 carrier is also considering a Bei- Capital, in turn boosting its com- China Southern Airlines London Heathrow Wuhan 2018 jing-London service once the new petitiveness and facilitating con- London Gatwick Chongqing 2016 Beijing airport opens next year. necting traffic feed from its Star Tianjin Airlines London Heathrow Xi'an 2018 An enhanced UK-China bilater- Alliance partners. al air services pact reached last Hainan Airlines Beijing 2018 Joanna Lu, head of advisory year excluded London routes from Asia at Flight Ascend Consul- Hainan Airlines London Heathrow Changsha 2018 the 50 extra available frequencies. tancy, adds that with the policy Hainan Airlines Manchester Beijing 2016 The revised agreement was in- change, airport hub competition, London Heathrow Qingdao 2018 tended to support expansion from particularly at Beijing and Shang- Source: FlightGlobal schedules data; *Launches July 2018 regional airports. hai, will also heat up. These -

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ulf carrier expansion over the past decade has left no continent untouched, but chal- G lenges from afar and closer to home have forced them into a period of relative introspection. Slowing economic conditions in the Gulf, driven by the effects on the energy sector of the fall in oil prices, hit demand. In its Gulf Economic Monitor update in March, the World Bank noted frac- tional economic growth in 2017 among the Gulf Cooperation Council states. That growth is forecast to strengthen this year and next, as energy prices climb and fiscal austerity loosens. Foreign travel restrictions, nota- bly from the USA in the early months of the Trump administra- tion, took a toll. The associated impact on demand was later com- pounded by American Airlines withdrawing codeshares with Eti- had Airways and Qatar Airways amid the wider clash with Qatar and the

over alleged subsidies. This Airbus resulted in Emirates and Etihad in Emirates’ profits have rebounded but growth is relatively modest as it cites “relentless” competition particular, after years of rapid growth, trimming US capacity While those travel restrictions have been lifted – and the USA has brokered framework accords on level playing fields with Qatar Gulf regrouping and now the UAE – capacity from the Gulf to the USA has not been After years of eye-catching expansion, the large Gulf carriers have spent much of the fully restored. Emirates has been last 18 months taking stock, with a resulting impact on their traffic and capacity growth adding US capacity back, but its capacity in June nonetheless compared with the previous 12 capacity is up by all metrics com- ited” move for a stake in Ameri- remains around a fifth down on months. That is by a distance their pared to June 2017. But narrow- can Airlines was aborted, Qatar January 2017, the month of lowest rate of expansion in the body flight and seat capacity are Airways did in the second half of Trump’s inauguration. past 10 years. dow a fifth, although ASKs with 2017 confirm its stake The closure of airspace to Qatar Qatar Airways still increased its the type are slightly increased. and took a stake in Cathay Pacific from four neighbouring states also ASK capacity by just over 10% This change is driven by Qatar’s shares. Qatar chief executive hit services closer to home. over the year. But even that marks sudden diplomatic isolation Akbar Al Baker also says it Almost a year on, the restrictions its second slowest annual growth among Middle Eastern neighbours remains “very keen” on investing remain – resulting in the loss of over the same 10-year span. since a year ago. Bahrain, Egypt, in . the 20 routes from Doha, includ- The focus on and development and the UAE imme- These partnerships have also ing high-frequency links to Dubai, of long-haul services at these carri- diately closed flights to and from provided opportune alternatives Abu Dhabi and Bahrain. ers means their ASK growth out- Qatar, while they also imposed to redeploy some of its fleet. The paces other capacity metrics. restrictions on overflights to and revamped Meridiana operation STALLED GROWTH Notably, in terms of flights and from the country. There appears relaunched as in March, Hence, the breakneck pace of seats, capacity is down slightly at no obvious momentum at present leasing aircraft from Qatar to sup- expansion set over recent years by all three in the last year, compared toward breaking the impasse. port its expansion in the interim. Emirates, and with the previous 12 months. In response, Qatar Airways IAG unit British Airways mean- Qatar Airways has stalled. The most notable difference began fast-tracking its network- while recently sought to wet-lease FlightGlobal schedules data between ASK and flight capacity expansion programme, while it three Airbus A330s from Qatar shows that Emirates and Etihad trends is seen at Qatar Airways. also appeared to intensify its focus Airways in order to overcome increased ASK capacity a little FlightGlobal schedules data on adding to its IAG and LATAM schedule disruption caused by over 1% in the year to June 2018, shows that for June, its widebody investments. While an “unsolic- Boeing 787 engine maintenance. ❯❯

22 | Flight Airline Business | 4 June 2018

MIDDLE EAST

❯❯ While US aviation relations Emirates, Eithad, Qatar Airways and ASK development 2008-18 improved with January’s frame- ASK (bn) work deal – which included com- mitments on clearer financial 400 reporting for Qatar Airways, and pledges not to add US flights from 300 third countries – this has not yet been enough to salvage Qatar’s codeshare with American. 200 The wider disruption has also inevitably taken a toll on the air- line’s profits. “There will be pres- 100 sures on our operating costs, pres- sures on our bottom line, which I have already not shied to speak 0 about,” Al Baker said in February. Y/E Jun Y/E Jun Y/E Jun Y/E Jun Y/E Jun Y/E Jun Y/E Jun Y/E Jun Y/E Jun Y/E Jun Y/E Jun 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 “But at the end of the day, we’re a Source: FlightGlobal schedules data. Y/E = year ending very robust airline.” Emirates Etihad Oatar Airways Turkish Airlines In April, he indicated the air- line made a “substantial” full-year loss. He noted that other parts of the Qatar Airways group business says chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin the two carriers working together formal restructuring during 2017. were profitable but not to the Saeed Al Maktoum. “makes a huge amount of sense”. ’s future remains to be degree that they could make up He adds that the environment He adds: “As we delaminate the decided, but was bro- for the airline’s deficit. for Emirates “remained tough” overlap routes, it kicks in enor- ken up and its primary assets with continuing political instabil- mous commercial power.” acquired by rivals, while Darwin EMIRATES EVOLUTION ity, volatility with currencies, and The airline, by far the largest was ultimately ceased operations The region’s biggest carrier, Emir- devaluation in Africa. “On the customer for the , some months after Etihad sold its ates Group, however, has just positive side, we benefited from a also eventually gave the pro- stake to . reported a rebound in profits for healthy recovery in the global air gramme a shot in the arm by plac- The Abu Dhabi carrier still has the year ended 31 March. It turned cargo industry,” he says. ing a major follow-on order for the equity partners, notably Air Ser- in a full-year group profit of Dh4.1 The sharp fall in profits type in January. bia, Jet Airways and Virgin Aus- billion ($1.1 billion), including a recorded for the previous year had But Emirates’ more moderate tralia, as well as other commercial profit of Dh2.8 billion for the prompted Emirates to rethink fleet-renewal pace over the last partners. But there has been little Emirates airline division. parts of its strategy, including year, in which it halved the intake outward clarity over the extent to The group profit is up two- deepening its co-operation with of new aircraft to 17 compared which it will continue to embrace thirds from the previous annual sister carrier . The two with the previous 12 months, the equity-alliance strategy fol- figure – which had been badly airlines embarked on codesharing serves as a reminder of the slower lowing the departure of group affected by geopolitical events, as part of an alignment of their rate of growth. chief James Hogan and since suc- said the company. Conditions networks, enabling Flydubai to The airline introduced eight cessor Tony Douglas took the improved over 2017-2018 but ris- support feed to Emirates’ long- Airbus A380s and nine Boeing helm at the start of 2018. ing oil prices have increased costs, haul flights. 777-300ERs, while withdrawing Closer to home, though, there and the company has faced Speaking during November’s eight older jets. This lifted its over- have been signs of a continued “downward pressure” on margins Dubai air show, Emirates Airline all fleet to 268 by the end of March overhaul at its core Etihad Air- from “relentless” competition, president Tim Clark said having this year, nine more than in opera- ways operation. In February, it tion a year earlier. confirmed plans to transfer all of Emirates kept its total seat its Airbus A340s to UK-based avi- capacity rise at just 2.4% in its ation services company European financial year to March 2018. Aviation Group. Emirates says it has been pursuing Etihad’s withdrawal of the a “focus on yield improvement”. A340s follows its previous reduc- tion in freighter activity. The air- ETIHAD REGROUPS line has given few details about its The wider issues impacting the fleet rejig beyond stating that con- region also took a toll at Etihad sideration of aircraft requirements Airways, but the group and its and modifications to the fleet are strategy of delivering growth part of normal airline activity. through its Abu Dhabi hub has The airline in April disclosed it faced its own distractions. Nota- was cutting flights to Perth in Aus- bly, the bulk of its European air- tralia and Edinburgh in Scotland line investments collapsed, as Ali- this October “as part of an ongoing

Qatar Airways talia, Air Berlin and Swiss review of network performance”. Qatar’s network rejig includes a recent return to London Gatwick regional Darwin Airline entered FlightGlobal schedules for June ❯❯

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❯❯ show the airline no longer are scheduled for delivery. serves a number of destinations to The airline is also set to receive which it operated in the same 92 A321neos and 75 737 Max jets month last year: /Fort Worth over 2018-2023, taking the overall and in the USA, fleet from 329 aircraft at the end of Venice in Italy, Entebbe and Kam- last year to 475 in 2023. pala in Uganda, Jaipur in India, It ensures the Gulf carriers’ the Iranian capital Tehran, and ambitious neighbour is firmly Doha. Only Baku in Azerbaijan back in growth mode. has been added to its network The impact of the issues facing compared with June 2017 the Gulf carriers – and the wider region – was evident as the Mid- TURKISH RECOVERY dle East was the only region that With its rapid growth, its ambi- had a reduction in traffic growth, tious development plans, and its according to IATA data during

location linking Europe and Asia, 2017. Carriers in the region still Dinendra Haria/REX/Shutterstock Turkish Airlines has often been increased traffic by almost 7%, Turkish Airlines made a return to traffic and profit growth in 2017 described as the fourth Gulf mega- but this was a slower rate than in carrier. Turkish too has enjoyed a 2016. It also marked the first time busy Easter period’s timing – last ruption caused in the first half of run of double-digit expansion and in 20 years that the region’s share year, it fell a month later, in April 2017 by the now-lifted ban on has welcomed an array of aircraft of global traffic fell. – it is still much improved on the large portable electronic devices, to its fleet over the same period. Similarly, traffic levels fell at 4% rise in February. as well as a wider impact stem- It also recently faced chal- fast-growing hubs in the region “This reflects healthy growth in ming from the proposed travel lenges. Political uncertainty in the such as Abu Dhabi and Doha. the market between the Middle restrictions to the USA.” country, including a failed coup, But IATA figures for March do East and Asia,” IATA says. Notably, as capacity was lifted hit demand. Troubles included show traffic at Middle Eastern car- “Demand also shows signs of sta- by only 4.3%, load factor jumped the devastating terrorist attack at riers jumped 10.7%. While that bilisation on Middle East-to-North 4.4 percentage points among Mid- in June 2016. must be seen in the context of the America routes, following the dis- dle East carriers to 76.7%. ■ Against this backdrop, Turkish Airlines was forced to quickly pull back capacity. UAE joins Qatar in reaching US open skies commitment But the situation stabilised, tourism demand began to recover US and United Arab Emirates offi- “their understanding that financial Airlines, and United and so too have the airline’s for- cials have reached a deal to settle transparency is best served when Airlines and their labour groups. tunes. Its revival continued in the a long-running dispute over al- airlines issue annual financial re- The UAE embassy disputes the first quarter of 2018 as it made an leged subsidies to Emirates Airline ports audited in accordance with coalition’s claim, saying that “the operating profit – before invest- and Etihad Airways, mirroring a internationally-recognised ac- information released by three US ment activities – of $41 million, similar agreement struck earlier counting standards”. airlines is not correct”. It adds that reversing a loss of $172 million in this year with Qatar. The State Department adds the talks between the US and UAE the same period of 2017. The UAE embassy in the USA that Emirates and the US airlines governments noted that the “UAE The carrier’s full- says that the deal signed between that operate under the US-UAE bi- and its designated carriers are and year result for 2017 had likewise the UAE and USA “reaffirmed lateral air services agreement have been at all times in full com- brought a return to profitability, as their strong support” for the two “have issued such reports for pliance with the agreement”. an operating loss of $291 million countries’ . years”, and notes Etihad will do so While Etihad does not operate in 2016 – a year that brought terror It adds that all rights under the on completion of its restructuring. any US flights other than from Abu attacks and a coup attempt in Tur- bilateral agreement remain in Dhabi, Emirates flies from Athens key – was transformed into a sur- place, including fifth freedom FIFTH FREEDOMS and Milan to Newark and New York plus of $1.02 billion. flights, which had provoked the ire But there was confusion around JFK, respectively. These fifth-free- It has also signalled no let-up of US carriers in the dispute. the issue of fifth-freedom flights. A dom flights have been a sore point in its growth aspirations, having The embassy statement was coalition representing the three for the US carriers, which accuse struck deals in March for 50 new echoed by the US State Depart- US airlines that had brought the the Gulf airlines of receiving more widebodies, split equally ment, which said on 14 May that subsidies allegations against the than $42 billion of state subsidies. between the Boeing 787-9 and “all rights and provisions” of the Gulf carriers appeared to contra- In January, a deal between the Airbus A350-900. 2002 air transport deal between the dict the statements made by the US and Qatari governments was Turkish Airlines will start tak- USA and UAE “remain in force”. US and UAE governments. The announced to settle the dispute ing delivery of its new long-haul The State Department, which Partnership for Open and Fair between the US carriers and Qatar fleet next year, with the introduc- released a statement following a Skies coalition says that the deal Airways. That also included a com- tion of six 787-9s. Its latest fleet- meeting between Secretary of reached between the two coun- mitment for Qatar Airways not to development plan, detailed in its State Mike Pompeo and the UAE’s tries will prevent Emirates and Eti- add US flights from third countries. recent first-quarter financial state- foreign minister Abdullah bin had from adding nonstop flights The US airlines first made public ment, shows that the A350s will Zayed Al Nahyan, adds that the to the USA from Europe and Asia. their accusations against the Gulf start arriving in 2020 when five two governments expressed The coalition comprises American carriers in March 2015. aircraft – plus another nine 787s –

4 June 2018 | Flight Airline Business | 27 INTERACTIVE

Pick up our Routes dailies DIGITAL FAB ON YOUR PHONE If you are enjoying this week’s coverage from the IATA AGM, look out for Many Flight Airline Business the next set of three special Flight Airline Business issues at World Routes subscribers are already ­enjoying the option to view each issue for free on their FlightGlobal team will be smartphones. The ­digital Aheading to Guangzhou in edition is optimised for September for this year’s World iOS and Android mobile Routes event. devices, in addition to the Our journalists will be on site in tablet and desktop op- south China, producing three spe- tions. The design is cial issues of Flight Airline Busi- ­responsive to each device ness and publishing all the latest and screen orientation. news on Flight Dashboard and Digital users can also enjoy flightglobal.com. extras such as a video The 15-18 September event ­interview with the cover­ takes place at the China Import and star. For more

Export Fair – one of the largest Imaginechina/REX/Shutterstock ­information, exhibition venues in the Asia- Guangzhou has a strong reputation and history as a trading hub search for Pacific region. The venue hosts the “Flight Airline famous Canton Fair twice a year. ers – delegates will be treated to a contribution to China’s economy Business” in FlightGlobal will also have a networking evening at the Canton was reflected in the late-April the App Store stand at the show, where delegates Tower, the fourth-tallest free-stand- opening of a new terminal at Bai- or Google can find out about our schedules ing structure in the world. yun airport. Play, or visit and fleets data, along with our Organisers predict 3,000 dele- Last year, Guangzhou Baiyun ­flightglobal.com/­ news and analysis products. gates will attend from 110 coun- handled 65.8 million passengers, AirlineBusiness As part of a packed schedule – tries. Some 300 airlines, 700 air- up 10.2% from the year before, and including the usual speed dating- ports and 130 tourism authorities well above its design capacity of 40 style meetings between airlines are expected to be represented. million. Throughput is expected to and airports, and a conference pro- Guangzhou is one of the hit 70 million this year. EVENTS gramme featuring top-level speak- world’s oldest trading hubs. Its flightglobal.com/WorldRoutes BIG DATA SHOWS FlightGlobal’s Aerospace Big Data conference series Winners chosen for industry’s big night heads for , Florida in September. It will bring udging is now complete for July’s invitation-only ceremony ­together manufacturers, J this year’s Airline Strategy takes place at a new venue this MRO providers, suppliers Awards, which takes place on 15 year: the Honourable Artillery and airlines from across the July on the eve of Farnborough Company’s London home. This North American and LATAM air show. stunning venue is located in Lon- ­regions to discuss topics A team of high-profile judges don’s financial quarter, just a few including information-shar- from across the industry gathered minutes from Moorgate, Liverpool ing challenges and emerg- in London for a meeting in mid- Street and Old Street stations. ing opportunities to unlock May, hosted by our event partner Aside from recognising the air- the value of aircraft health Korn Ferry, where they decided line industry’s biggest talents, the data. After Miami, events on the winners across six catego- ceremony also offers unrivalled will be held in London on ries: Executive Leadership, Sec- networking opportunities with 28-29 November and tor Leadership, Low-cost Leader- high-profile executives from Singapore in May 2019.

ship, Network Strategy, Finance BillyPix across the world. FlightGlobal’s Aerospace and Marketing. Joyce received the executive Last year’s winners included Big Data Conference made The judges were asked to leadership award last year Alan Joyce of Qantas, Vitaly Save- its debut in London last year, choose from a list of nominations liev of Aeroflot and Joszef Varadi ­and featured speakers from that was drawn up after several This year marks the 17th run- of Wizz Air. Other awards went to some of the world’s biggest months of deliberation and in- ning of the awards and the second EasyJet, KLM and Air Canada. manufacturers. Discover depth research. A special Flight time Flight Airline Business has To find out more, including more about the series here: Airline Business award – judged partnered with Korn Ferry, a lead- information about attending and flightglobal.com/ separately – will also be handed ing human capital management sponsorship opportunities, visit: BigData out on the night. firm, to deliver the event. strategyawards.com

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Editor Graham Dunn [email protected] Reporter Greg Waldron [email protected] BillyPix Meet the team It’s show time! Team members from FlightGlobal’s Asian and European offices are here producing three Flight Airline Business dailies providing analysis of key industry issues and capturing news from the AGM Visit the team in the media room on Level 3 during the event, and catch up with extra insight from Sydney on Flight Dashboard and flightglobal.com

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where to find us Editor Graham Dunn Design & Production Advertising Grace Murphy Our editorial team is located in the Quadrant House, The Quadrant, Reporting team Firdaus Hashim, Alexis Rendell, Printers Camerons Printers Media Room, Cockle Bay Room, Sutton, Surrey, SM2 5AS, UK Ellis Taylor, Greg Waldron Lin Ning, Terence Burke Executive director content Level 3 Contributors Copy editing Max Kingsley-Jones, Lewis Harper, Mavis Toh Dan Bloch, Tim Norman Publisher Stuart Burgess © Flight Airline Business 2018 Photography Tom Gordon

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