Global Journal of Management And Business Research Volume 11 Issue 1 Version 1.0 February 2011 Type: Double Blind Peer Reviewed International Research Journal Publisher: Global Journals Inc. (USA) ISSN: 0975-5853

Analyzing the Terrorist Activities and Their Implications in through Datamining By Shan Majeed Khan, Dr. Irfan Manarvi HITEC University,

Abstract- the events of September 11, 2001 changed the global political scenario fundamentally. The U.S. traced the terrorist outrages in New York and Washington to the Al-Qaeda and the regime in . As a result, the U.S. declared war against international , targeting Afghanistan, for which Pakistan's support was imperative. The cooperation with the U.S. required withdrawing support to the Taliban and start crackdown on the militant Jihadi and sectarian outfits, which had close links with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, for which Pakistan had to pay a high price. In 2008, Suicide Attacks in Pakistan reached an unprecedented level in the history of modern terrorism. It has been the scene of horrific acts of terrorist violence, and suicide bombings in different areas of Pakistan most notably in NWFP and FATA. The deteriorating law and order situation in the NWFP and FATA resulted in many deaths and casualties of the security forces and civilians. Keywords: Pakistan, , Terrorism, Civilian, Suicide Bombing, Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Classification: GJMBR-A FOR Classification: 080109

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© 2011 Shan Majeed Khan, Dr. Irfan Manarvi.This is a research/review paper, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), permitting all non- commercial use, distribution, and reproduction inany medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Analyzing the Terrorist Activities and Their Implications in Pakistan through Datamining uary 2011 1 2 Shan Majeed Khan , Dr. Irfan Manarvi ebr F

35 Abstract— the events of September 11, 2001 changed the Pakistan provides al Qaeda with many of the global political scenario fundamentally. The U.S. traced the same advantages it had when it was based across the terrorist outrages in New York and Washington to the Al- border in Afghanistan. According to the assessment, the

Qaeda and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. As a result, the I U.S. declared war against international Terrorism, targeting safe haven in the FATA serves as a staging area for al Afghanistan, for which Pakistan's support was imperative. The Qaeda’s attacks in support of the Taliban in Afghanistan. cooperation with the U.S. required withdrawing support to the Further, it serves as a location for training new terrorist Version Taliban and start crackdown on the militant Jihadi and operatives for attacks in Pakistan, the Middle East, I sectarian outfits, which had close links with the Taliban and Al- Africa, Europe, and the . U.S. government Qaeda, for which Pakistan had to pay a high price. In 2008, officials in Washington and Pakistan also acknowledge Suicide Attacks in Pakistan reached an unprecedented level in that al Qaeda has established a safe haven near XI Issue I the history of modern terrorism. It has been the scene of Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan. for example, State’s

horrific acts of terrorist violence, and suicide bombings in April 2007 Country Reports on Terrorism states that different areas of Pakistan most notably in NWFP and FATA. The deteriorating law and order situation in the NWFP and Pakistan remains a major source of Islamic extremism Volume FATA resulted in many deaths and casualties of the security and a safe haven for some top terrorist leaders, forces and civilians. including those of al Qaeda [4].

Keywords: Pakistan, War on Terror, Terrorism, Civilian, Pakistani Military forces are positioned around Suicide Bombing, Federally Administered Tribal Areas. the FATA. Its progress in removing militants, however, is hindered due to low moral—in part because of soldiers’ I. INTRODUCTION repulsion at Muslim killing Muslim—and secondly, du e akistan as a country of first line of defense has to its inability to build bases in the region since locals greater contribution in the ongoing ‘war on terror’ continue to reject the military and prefer to rely on their in Afghanistan and in the adjacent tribal territories own tribal forces. Furthermore, the military and P increasingly law enforcement are targeted by suicide of Pakistan. In 2001, after the US’s military campaign in and Business Research and Business Afghanistan that ousted the Taliban from power, many bombings or threatened with beheadings by Taliban elements [5] members of the Taliban retreated to the FATA or Pakistan in general, to establish an exile base [1]. The By 2005-06, the militants had grown into a force Pakistan military entered Fata in 2003; since then and began their expansion outward into the adjoining districts of Tank, D.I Khan, Bannu, Lakki, Kohat, insurgency in Fata and NWFP has grown at an alarming Management rate. In stark contrast there was hardly any militancy in , Nowshera, Charsadda, Mardan, Swat, Dir the years 2001- 2002 and Taliban were rare. The start of and Kohistan [6]. militancy coincides with the move of the military into Such wrenching violence has been the fate South Waziristan in 2004 and which led to repeated already of the neighboring Swat Valley, and of nearby stabilization operations in Waziristan [2]. Bajaur, an area of the tribal region, where the army and militants have been locked in heavy fighting. Civilian of Journal obal

Citizens faced a terrible wave of terrorism in the Gl urban cities of the country, especially in the North-West casualties are high. The task of pushing back the Taliban Frontier Province (NWFP), Pakistan. These terrorist is taking far longer than the army had anticipated. In activities in the crowded urban places include bomb Swat, the army has been unable to stop the burning of blasting, explosions, target killings, suicidal bomb more than 100 girls schools or the murders of politicians attacks, and mortar/missile attacks from unseen places. and their families. About one-third of the police force has deserted in Swat, and some of the deserters have joined the Taliban, even as trainers, according to senior About1- Department of Management Science, Iqra University police officials. [7] Campus, Pakistan The TTP did not wait long to claim responsibility About2- Department of Mechanical Engineering, HITEC University, Taxila, Pakistan for the killing, stating that the attack was a response to the ’s air strikes in Waziristan. “We warn the government to stop the operation […] in Waziristan

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Analyzing the Terrorist Activities and Their Implications in Pakistan through Datamining

otherwise we will continue such attacks all over Above figure shows, that Swat registered most Pakistan,” said Hakimullah Mehsud, a top commander of the terrorism related activities because of its large

of the TTP. [8] area and it was the main hideout for the terrorists and With more than 140 suicide attacks and 1700 the proportion of registered cases is much more when victims between 2002 and 2008, the use of the method compared to other districts. is clearly on the rise. Pakistan has now surpassed both uary 2011 2) Comparison Of Police, Fc, Army And Civilians and Afghanistan in this disturbing ranking. [9] ebr Killed F II. METHODOLOGY Figure 2.0 shows the relationship among four The original data of deaths and injuries of the groups of people (Police, Frontier Constabulary, and 36 Police, Army, FC and civilians as well as the number of Army & Civilians) killed in these terrorist activities. terrorist activities in 2008 was mined from the databases of Pakistan Society of Criminology (PSC) as well as

other public and private sources of information about 400 344 terrorism in Pakistan . The data was compiled under 113 various variables for the entire period. Then analysis was 200 51 carried out through various statistical measures and 25 relationship between the data has been established. 0 The data includes the deaths and casualties of Local Police, , Army, and Civilians in the Total North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). There are 483 registered cases of terrorism in 17 districts of NWFP in Police the year 2008. These 17 districts are further classified

Volume XI Issue I Version I I Version XI Volume Issue into three geographical regions that are the Central Frontier Constabulary

NWFP, Northern NWFP and Southern NWFP. 1) District-Wise Terrorist Activities In Nwfp Army

The present research data shows 17 districts of Civilians NWFP compared against the registered cases in 2008 as shown in Fig 1.0. Fig 2.0: Groups of People Killed in Terrorist Activities 15 The above figure shows that civilians were and Business Research and Business 10 12 mostly targeted and killed in the attacks which also 10 explain that these activities mostly took place in public

5 6 3 4 6 2 1 1 places like markets, bazaars and civilians populated 0 areas. Police are also the affectees of these attacks and more than hundred police constables have lost their Management lives while on duty. Around 50 Army personals and 25 FC men were also martyred in the span of one year. The killing of security personals signifanctly affects the morale of these soldiers and it creates a sense of insecurity among them. obal Journal of Journal obal l Fig 1.0a: District-Wise Terrorist Activities

G 3) COMPARISON OF POLICE, FC, ARMY AND 250 CIVILIANS INJURED 200 150 231 The trend in the injuries is almost similar to the 100 killings but the figures are magnified. Figure 3.0 shows 50 24 13 17 38 28 75 12 that more than 850 Civilians were injured in the 17 0 districts and casualties were shifted to hospitals in Peshawar because of better treatment facilities. As a law-enforcement agency, the local police are struggling very hard against this situation and despite many resource constraints and technical weaknesses, the police are evolving a new approach to combat such terrorist attacks but still around 250 police personals

Fig 1.0b: District-Wise Terrorist Activities

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Analyzing the Terrorist Activities and Their Implications in Pakistan through Datamining

were injured in 2008. Around 200 FC and Army men Swat and Peshawar are clearly more affected by were also injured due to terrorist activities in NWFP. such activities when compared to other districts. Figures for Mardan and Bannu are very similar though Mardan is 1000 862 comparatively bigger than Bannu, but as Bannu is 255 85 88 bordered with the tribal’s is has been more damaged.

0 There have been more than 100 injuries in Charsadda uary 2011

and D.I. Khan. ebr Total F 5) District-Wise Comparison Of All Groups Killed

Police 37 Frontier Constabulary

Army I

Civilians Version

I Fig 3.0: Groups of People Injured in Terrorist Activities 4) Total Deaths And Injuries XI Issue I Figure 4.0 illustrates that total people injured are almost double of the total killed in terrorist activities and

this relation is similar for all districts. Volume Fig 5.0a: Comparison of All Groups Killed

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Fig 4.0a: Comparison of All Persons Killed and Injured Management Fig 5.0b: Comparison of All Groups Killed

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Fig 4.0b: Comparison of All Persons Killed and Injured Fig 5.0c: Comparison of All Groups Killed

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Analyzing the Terrorist Activities and Their Implications in Pakistan through Datamining

In figure 5.0 all four group of people killed by terrorists are compared among 17 districts. From

previous charts we know that civilians have been more affected than the other three groups and here the difference in proportion is evident that how many residents of NWFP have lost their lives. D.I.Khan has uary 2011 seen a bloody surge in sectarian schism which caused ebr F a loss of many innocent lives. The death toll of Charsadda suicide attacks and bomb blasts sum up to 39 lives. Swat and Peshawar are noticeable here 38 because of the high number of civilians targeted and killed. 94 civilians in Peshawar and 112 in Swat were among the unlucky ones who faced the tragedy of death.

6) District-Wise Comparison Of All Groups Injured Fig 6.0c: Comparison of All Groups Injured Figure 6.0 shows comparison of all injured in 7) Percentage Of Terrorist Activities NWFP and we get a bit different result from what we have previously seen in the killings. The number of This pie chart in figure 7.0 is the representation injuries in Peshawar even exceeds Swat by 42 people, of all the terrorist activities within the period of 12 the reason maybe because Peshawar is the provincial months in NWFP. Almost half of all the incidents capital of NWFP having population of 2.98 Million with occurred in Swat only, with the result of 202 killed and 392 injured. 16 percent of terrorism hit Peshawar in 2008

Volume XI Issue I Version I I Version XI Volume Issue density of 1,309.4/km2. Charsadda and D.I.Khan follows killing 119 innocent people. Kohat, Mardan and Bannu

the similar trend with more civilians injured than the other groups. also witnessed terrorism with the percentage of 8, 6 and 5 respectively.

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Fig 6.0a: Comparison of All Groups Injured

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Fig 7.0: Percentage of Terrorist Activities 8) Region-Wise Terrorist Activities In table 8.0, the 17 districts of the province are divided into three geographic regions for the analysis.

Fig 6.0b: Comparison of All Groups Injured

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Analyzing the Terrorist Activities and Their Implications in Pakistan through Datamining

Northern Central Southern Comprehensive Plan to Destroy the Terrorist NWFP NWFP NWFP Threat and Close the Safe Haven in Pakistan’s Swat Peshawar Kohat Federally Administered Tribal Areas”. April 2008,

Shangla Charsadda Hangu Available online: Buner Nowshehra Karak http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08622.pdf.

Dir lower Mardan Bannu 5. Gurmeet Kanwal, “Losing Ground: Pak Army uary 2011

Dir upper Mansehra Lakki Strategy in FATA & NWFP” in IPSC Issue Brief, ebr F D.I. Khan No 84, October 2008. Institute for Peace and Tank Conflict Studies. Fig 8.0: Three Geographic Regions of NWFP 6. Fata: Internal Security and Pakistan’s 391 International Obligations - A talk delivered by Figure 8.1 shows that 53 percent of the terrorist Khalid Aziz to the Conference on, “Rule of Law activities were operated in the Northern NWFP while 25 and : the Road, to the percent of it operated in Central and 22 percent were Future” June 17, 2008 Marriot, Islamabad. I operated in Southern NWFP. It should also be noted Organized by Pakistan Institute of Legislative here that Northern and Southern NWFP`s are area wise Development and Transparency (PILDAT) Version much bigger than Central NWFP but Central NWFP is 7. Perlez, Jane and Pir Zubair Shah. “As Taliban I densely populated as compared to the others. Overwhelm Police, Pakistanis Hit Back.” New York Times. Available Online: 8. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/world/asia/ 02pstan.html. November 2, 2008. XI Issue I 9. Tariq Naqash.. “Baitullah’s suicide foray into

AJK”. Dawn News. 26 June 2009. 10. http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawnc Volume ontent- library/dawn/news/pakistan/provinces/07- 11. suicide-blast-kills-two-soldiers-in-muzaffarabad- ha-03. 12. Amir Mir. 2008. “Pakistan tops Iraq, Afghanistan in suicide bombing deaths.” The News. 15 September. http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id =135813

Research and Business

Management Fig 8.1: Region-Wise Terrorist Activities References Références Referencias 1. Anita Demkiv, “Pakistan’s Fata, Transnational Terrorism And The Global Development Model” Journal Of Global Change And Governance, of Journal obal Volume II, Number 1, Winter/Spring 2009, Gl Division Of Global Affairs, Rutgers University 2. Khalid Aziz, “Causes of Rebellion in Waziristan,” Regional Institute of Policy Research, Peshawar, 2007, PP 40‐ 43. The report is available at www.khalidaziz.com. 3. Two bomb blasts kill 27 in northwest Pakistan (AFP) – Dec 5, 2008 Available online: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ ALeqM5h2jRTJSm-efNfhS_Wm9wP1w_TB5Q 4. United States Government Accountability Office. “Combating Terrorism, The United States Lacks

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