New J. Phys. 17 (2015) 013009 doi:10.1088/1367-2630/17/1/013009 PAPER A GDP-driven model for the binary and weighted structure of the OPEN ACCESS International Trade Network RECEIVED 29 September 2014 Assaf Almog1, Tiziano Squartini1,2 and Diego Garlaschelli1 ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION 1 Instituut-Lorentz for Theoretical Physics, Leiden Institute of Physics, University of Leiden, Niels Bohrweg 2, 2333 CA Leiden, The 24 November 2014 Netherlands PUBLISHED 2 ‘Sapienza’ University of Rome, P.le Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome, Italy 9 January 2015 E-mail:
[email protected] Content from this work Keywords: complex networks, econophysics, maximum entropy models may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Abstract Any further distribution of this work must maintain Recent events such as the global financial crisis have renewed the interest in the topic of economic attribution to the author (s) and the title of the networks. One of the main channels of shock propagation among countries is the International Trade work, journal citation and Network (ITN). Two important models for the ITN structure, the classical gravity model of trade DOI. (more popular among economists) and the fitness model (more popular among networks scientists), are both limited to the characterization of only one representation of the ITN. The gravity model satisfactorily predicts the volume of trade between connected countries, but cannot reproduce the missing links (i.e. the topology). On the other hand, the fitness model can successfully replicate the topology of the ITN, but cannot predict the volumes. This paper tries to make an important step forward in the unification of those two frameworks, by proposing a new gross domestic product (GDP) driven model which can simultaneously reproduce the binary and the weighted properties of the ITN.