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Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Mitigation V( * UNDRO/92/05 K _J UNDRO Office of the United Nations ^X Disaster Relief Co-ordinator (u^^vrMr, <s "% \ Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Mitigation Lessons From Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides Proceedings of the UNDRO/USSR/UNDP Training Seminars (Dushanbe, Tajikistan, USSR, 17 - 28 October 1988) (Moscow, USSR, 23 October - 3 November 1989) 9u UNITED NATIONS ^r/j'î'iivmmji:'"'^»' - - <t** UNDRO Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Co-ordinator Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Mitigation Lessons From Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides Proceedings of the UNDRO/USSR/UNDP Training Seminars (Dushanbe, Tajikistan, USSR, 17 - 28 October 1988) (Moscow, USSR, 23 October - 3 November 1989) UNITED NATIONS New York, 1992 ST »«*> FOREWORD 77; c Proceedings contain selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDROIUSSR Training Seminars: * on Enginering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held In Dushanbe (Tajikistan, former USSR), October 1988; • on Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow (USSR), October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. UNDRO hopes that this material will assist disaster-prone developing countries to assess their state of the art in dis­ aster management techniques. J. Too often a serious analysis of disaster consequences is not carried out until after a de­ structive event, although experience proves the need for systematic pre-disaster planning and risk analysis. Careful land use zoning, disaster management planning and training together with education of the population, and co-ordination between all concerned - all these aspects are recognized and confirmed to be essential by the authors. 2. Disaster mitigation plans (particularly, plans to strengthen existing structures to resist identified hazards) can be substantially improved by providing the population with ade­ quate information on how and what should be done to increase the resistance of settle­ ments. 3. The need to fill the gap between theoretical findings and their practical application is an important task of UN institutions. But why have all such findings, by very competent specialists, not produced the most natural result i.e. the improvement of disaster man­ agement planning? Why have they been left without the necessary follow-up from the authorities concerned? Lack of public and political awareness is one of the explanations. 4. Several of the authors underline the need for new, more precise calculations of loads. However, the need for this is in most cases of lower priority than the need for drastic ill improvement of building skills at the construction site, and also the need for improve­ ment of design, the introduction ofmonolitic cast-in-place rather than pre-cast elements, and the classification of building materials. 5. The questions of the theoretical aspects of the prediction of earthquakes are mentioned by several authors. Although UNDRO is convinced that the problem of prediction ,is very important and may save lives it stresses the necessity of disaster preparedness and man­ agement planning as a more effective means of reducing human suffering and material loss. 6. The first response after a disaster always comes spontaneously from neighbours, volun­ teers, the general public and the emergency services. The government disaster- management service, however large, cannot physically provide the necessary immediate help to all the victims of a major catastrophe. The strategy of disaster management planning is that each family and community in the disaster-prone area should be self reliant. Disaster management plans must rely on and complement this spontaneous ac­ tivity of the population in emergency situations. *) As the seminars took place in 1988 and 1989, references to country and citizenship reflect the political reality of that time. I '>iM¥MSMM0mtt**m*mt*m«*>*>™ m^.*^^ I-'^SETT" TABLE OF CONTENTS Texts of Fomal Presentations Page SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND ZONING Seismic Hazard Assessment and Determination of the Largest Possible Earthquakes V. Karnik Seismic Mircrozonation 21 M.D. Triftmac Selection of Earthquake Design Motions for 29 Important Engineering Structures M.D. Trifunac Principals of Seismic Zoning in North China . 39 C. Dasheng and S. Zhenliang Features of the Seismic Effect in Platform and Orogcn Areas 45 T. Rautian An Integral Model for Earthquake Damage and 53 Seismic risk Assessment Z. Milutin'ovic and J. Petrovski ECONOMIC AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS Hazards, Vulnerability and Risk - 67 A Commentary V. Karnik Indirect Loss a.id Damage Caused by Earthquakes: .73 A General Treatment H. Tiedemann Building Damage Classification and Loss Assessment 85 for Risk Mitigation J. Petrovski Priorities in Earthquake Damage Reduction 101 H. Tiedemann Lessons from the Mexican Earthquake 1985: 119 Quantitative Evaluation of Damage and Damage Parameters H. Tiedemann v DESIGN STANDARDS Improvement of Design and Construction Standards , 129 F. Aptikacv Design and Construction Standards in Earthquake-Prone Areas 131 V. Qizerman CASE HISTORIES The Japanese Earthquake of 1978 137 S. Suychiro Data on Natural and Induced Scismicity in Brazil 143 J.A.V. Veloso Scismicity and Seismic Risk in and Around Egypt 151 E.M. Ibrahim Gissar Earthquake - Facts and Figures 157 The Gissar Earthquake (23 January 1989) Seismotcctonics, 159 Seismology and Engineering Geology S.K. Negmatullaev et al Gissar Earthquake, 1989: Search and Rescue 165 Operations and Emergency Management F. Niyazov Gissar Earthquake, 1989 - Economic Analysis 169 S. V. Kozharinov, F.G. Garvrikov Spitak Earthquake - Facts and Figures 173 Spitak Earthquake, 1988: Engineering Consequences 175 J. Burgman, V. Rzhevsky, T. Markaryan Spitak Earthquake, 1988 - Engineering Analysis 179 A. Khachiyan Emergency Management and Relief Experience Following 183 The Spitak Earthquake (1988) B. Chernichko Spitak Earthquake, 1988: Organization of Rescue and 187 Resource Management A. Kapochkin Spitak Earthquake, 1988: Seismotectonics and Seismology 191 /. Nersesov Causes of the Catastrophic Consequences of the 195 Spitak Earthquake V. Udaltsov vi PUBLIC INFORMATION AND EDUCATION Public Awareness of Information Systems S. Suyehiro DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND THE ROLE OF CIVIL DEFENSE Mitigating Natural Disasters E. Lohmun Reorganization of a Civil Defense System F.C. Cuny Restoration and Strengthening of Damaged Buildings A.I. Martemianov, S.G. Shaginian, T.G. Markarian Reinforcement of Existing Buildings T. Chachave ANNEXES Annex A - 1988 Seminar Programme Annex B - 1988 Seminar List of Participants Annex C - 1989 Seminar Programme Annex D • 1989 Seminar List of Participants vii _i_i jia u--^__—«. itôrj?^ ;B-W.,,<i%— TM<'^-;"!.^^-:^^^ !Af»^«i««>*MMttkl^ •-.-. ..-.,..., -- , lUL SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND ZONING - i&vwmt/<sim>mm SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND DETERMINATION OF THE LARGEST POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKES by V. Karnik (Czechoslovakia) Summary The estimate of the largest possible earthquake within a certain seismogenic region is the key problem in any seismic hazard assessment because the upper threshold magnitude event determines the level of hazard. Several approaches in estimating Mmax arc reviewed below: N(M), historical records, recent geological movements, fault length, strain release, Riznichcnko's activity A, pattern recognition, extreme values method by Borisov et al. None of these approaches, used alone, can provide a reliable value of Mmax. Principles of Seismic Hazard Assessment The existing procedures for assessing different natural hazards are essentially similar. The first step is always the definition of the source model in terms of the source location and the fre­ quency and size of potentially damaging events; the second step relates to the propagation of dis­ turbances from the source; and the third step, involves the development of an exposure model for a site or for a region. Standard methodology applied to seismic hazards is presented in Figure 1. It is obvious that accuracy of assessment depends on the quantity and quality of input data. There are too many examples of an uncritical use of published data for hazard mapping, all of which illustrate the need for a careful revision and unification of the input information. (Processing heterogeneous data leads only to misleading results.) The first major problem appears when potential earthquake-source regions are to be defined in terms of boundaries and activity. It cannot be assumed that the historical sample has revealed the existence of all source regions or provided evidence on the largest possible events. The latter, problem is discussed in detail in the present paper. Once the source is defined, empirical functions relating epicentral distance D, magnitude M, focal depth h and the selected parameter of ground motion must be established. Macroseismic intensity I is still widely used as a parameter because macroseismic observations are more abun­ dant than those of any other quantity; they also provide the basis for the assessment of events which originated prior to 1900. Moreover, macroseismic intensity can be applied to estimating -3- [ „ s- ^l:i4M*àM,>At t*'^*immxA< •wta probable losses or damage ratios of the basic types of buildings. However, defined physical pa­ rameters, such as particle velocity, acceleration
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